21st May,2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E_newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter 2015

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Contact: Mujahid Ali [email protected]

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newslette

www.ricepluss.com

www.riceplusmagazine.blogspot

May 21 ,2Vol 5,Iss

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

May 20, 2015

Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370

- $380 per ton, about a $25 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $395 - $405 per

ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $330- $340 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$345 - $355, about a $10 per ton discount to Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per

ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about a $45 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice

shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about a $10 per ton

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100%

broken rice is shown at around $270 - $280 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Pakistan

broken sortexed rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton.

Global Rice Quotes

May 21st, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality


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Thailand 100% B grade 380-390 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 350-360 ↔

India 5% broken 370-380 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 405-415 ↑

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 430-440 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 465-475 ↓

Uruguay 5% broken 565-575 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 555-565 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 350-360 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 360-370 ↑

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 345-355 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 455-465 ↓

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 360-370 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 865-875 ↔


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Vietnam Jasmine 480-490 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 815-825 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 305-315 ↑

Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 270-280 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 365-375 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

FAO Estimates Indonesia Rice Imports to

Decline Sharply in 2015-16

May 20, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Indonesia to import around

900,000 tons of rice in 2015-16 (April - March), down about 25% from around 1.2 million tons

last year due to a favorable outlook for 2015 aggregate rice production. It estimates Indonesia's

total cereal imports in 2015-16 at around 11.5 million tons, down about 3% from around 11.15

million tons last year.


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The FAO estimates Indonesia's 2015 aggregate paddy rice production at around 73 million tons

(around 46.72 million tons of rice, basis milled), up about 3% from an estimated 70.61 million

tons (around 45.2 million tons of rice, basis milled) in 2014.Harvesting of the 2015 main season

paddy crop (mid-October to mid-May) is ongoing and will continue till mid-July. Favourable

weather conditions, coupled with diverse initiatives launched by the government to support

production, including the rehabilitation of irrigation channels, distribution of subsidized seeds

and fertilizers, are expected to increase the yields of the main season, says the FAO. It also

expects a slight expansion in area planted for the 2015 secondary season rice crop (June to mid-

December).The government has been aiming to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production this

year and accordingly has been providing support to the sector.

Average rice prices have been increasing since September 2014 and have reached record levels

in March 2015. However, since April, prices reversed direction due to the government

intervention as well as increased supplies from the 2015 main season rice crop. Currently, prices

stand at around 9.875 million Rupiah (around $751) per ton, down about 1.25% from around 10

million Rupiah (around $770) per ton in April 2015.USDA estimates Indonesia to produce

around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and

import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (October - September).


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MRF Expects Myanmar to Export 2 Million

Tons of Rice in FY 2015-16; Up 18% from

Last Year

May 20, 2015

The Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) has expressed confidence that the country would export

about 2 million tons of rice in the fiscal year 2015-16 (April - March) due to increasing demand

from China, Africa and Europe, according to local sources.Cross border rice exports to China,which slowed down between August 2014 to February 2015 due to lack of a proper trade

agreement between the two countries have reportedly resumed again following the signing of a

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the MRF and China's COFCO to export

100,000 tons this year. Traders told local sources that around 4,000 tons of rice is being exported

to China currently through borders every day.Myanmar's rice exports have been increasing

consistently for the last three years, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Myanmar exported


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about 1.7 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15, about 1.2 million tons of rice in FY 2013-14 and

about 1.4 million tons of rice in FY 2012-13. The government is keen on increasing rice exports

to around 3 million tons over the next few years and has prioritized rice in its National Export

Strategy (NES).

The NES will focus on seven main sectors - rice, peas and pulses, fisheries productions, textiles,

timber and forest products, rubber, and tourism - over the next five years to enhance the

country's export reach as well as to the trade deficit, which is stood at around $5 billion in 2014-

15, according to the Commerce Ministry. Sources at the Ministry noted that the NES

implementation would cost the government about $900 million over the next five years.USDA

estimates Myanmar to produce 19.688 million tons of paddy rice (around 12.6 million tons,

milled basis) and export around 1.85 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January - December

2015).

Limited Financing Options Hamper Export

Opportunities for Cambodian Rice Millers,

Say Experts


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May 20, 2015

Limited access to finance, warehousing and logistical support are hampering export potential of

Cambodian rice millers, local sources quoted some experts as saying.A recent report by the UN

Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) noted that Cambodianrice millers need to invest hugely in increasing their milling capacity and irrigation facilities to

scale up exports. However, an official from the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) told local

sources that Cambodian rice millers are facing acute financing problem and the government has

not taken enough measures to address this issue. Due to this they are not in a position to scale up

their milling and warehousing capacities.

He noted that Cambodian rice millers most of the time end up selling their stocks to Vietnam and

Thai traders. They get attracted to huge amounts paid by them he says. Vietnam and Thai

governments provide subsidies and warehouse facilities during the harvest season Cambodia lags

behind such facilities.The official also noted that while the country currently has the potential to

export around 1.5 million tons of rice, mills are currently working at only 30-40% of their

capacities due to low stocks available. Millers need a huge working capital to buy paddy, stock

and mill it and export it. However lack of access to working capital has been forcing millers to

keep their mills idle most of the time. Though some private banks have been providing loans to

millers, their conditions for collateral are tough to meet, he says. Moreover, private banks always

retain the authority whether or not to sanction the loan, he adds.

The government has targeted to export around 1 million tons of rice in 2015, but it is far away

from the target due to these inherent problems, he says.Cambodia exported around 201,183 tons

of rice in the first four months of 2015, up about 67% from around 120,291 tons exported during

the same period in 2014. Cambodia exported around 387,061 tons of rice in 2014.USDA

estimates Cambodia to produce around 4.7 million tons of milled rice and export around 1.1

million tons (including official exports and unofficial exports to Vietnam and Thailand) in MY

2014-15 (January - December 2015).

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Close Lower as Sellers Face

Lack of Demand

May 20, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery settled 8 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at

$9.570 per cwt (about $211 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly lower; Soybeans


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closed about 0.5% lower at $9.4125 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.5% higher at $5.1300 per

bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.6% lower at $3.6000 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded

sideways on Wednesday following a record close on the Dow as investors awaited the afternoon

release of the Fed meeting minutes.

The major averages attempted to hold slight gains after fluctuating around the flatline. The Dow

transports fell more than 1.5% as airline stocks declined. The Federal Reserve Open Market

Committee releases the minutes from its April meeting at 2 p.m. The statement from that month

removed all calendar references to the timing of a short-term interest rate hike. Chicago Fed

President Charles Evans said in Munich on Wednesday that a rate hike is not likely to be

appropriate until early 2016, Reuters reported. Investors are also looking ahead to a Friday

speech from Fed chief Janet Yellen for possible new clues on when the central bank may start

raising interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 16 points, or 0.09%, at 18,296. The S&P 500

traded down 3 points, or 0.13%, at 2,125, with telecommunications leading four sectors higher

and industrials the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq traded down 6 points, or 0.13%, at 5,063. Gold

is trading about 0.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.6% higher, and the U.S. dollar is

seen trading about 0.4% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Tuesday, there were 266

contracts traded, down from 398 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest – the number of

contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 13 contracts to 11,169.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Sideways

Market as Buyers and Sellers Wait for Better

Prices

May 20, 2015

The U.S. cash market was sideways today with little to no trading to report as most sellers

remain on the sidelines hoping for prices to improve while buyers do the same.Analysts continueto note that without an increase in export demand prices will likely trend lower however some

are hopeful that demand from either the Venezuela or Iraq will show up and support the

market.


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Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Seen Continued to be Dragged

Lower by Bearish Grains and Lack ofFundamental Support

May 20, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery are currently seen paused 3 cents per cwt (about $1

per ton) lower at $9.620 per cwt (about $212 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The

other grains are seen trading lower; soybeans are currently seen about 0.7% lower, wheat is listed

about 0.7% lower and corn is currently noted about 0.3% lower.U.S. stock index futures

indicated a flat to higher open for Wall Street shares Wednesday ahead of the release of the

minutes of April's Federal Reserve meeting, following another record close for the Dow Jones

the previous session.

On an otherwise quiet day for U.S. economic data, attention is expected to turn to the Fed

minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET. The Fed's last meeting was a relatively uneventful one and preceded the

release of several softer-than-expected economic figures. Markets are also already looking ahead

to a speech Fridayfrom Fed chief Janet Yellen for possible new clues on when the central bank

may start raising interest rates. Yellen is scheduled to speak Friday at the Greater Providence

Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon at 1 p.m. She is not expected to take

questions.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a record for the second day in a row on Tuesday,

ending below and intraday high of 18,351.36 set earlier that session. Gold is currently trading

about 0.3% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.2% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently

trading slightly higher at 8:15am Chicago time.

U.S. Southern States Look to Compensate for

Tighter Rice Supplies from CaliforniaMay 20, 2015


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The U.S. southern states such as Arkansas and Louisiana, which typically grow long-grain rice,

are looking to increase medium-grain production, in which California tops, in order to

compensate for tighter supplies from the western state, according to AgAlert.While California

rice growers are forced to reduce their acreage this year due to water restrictions and drought, the

two states have reportedly increased the medium-grain acreage in expectation of higher returns.

While the U.S. long-grain rice prices declined about 8% to around $475 per ton from around

$515 per ton in the beginning of this year, the U.S. medium grain rice prices declined about 7%

to around $850 per ton from around $915 in the beginning of this year.According to USDA,

while California's total rice acreage (mostly of medium grain) had declined about 30% to around

434,000 acres (around 175,634 ha) in 2014 from around 567,000 acres (around 229,457 ha) in

2013, medium grain acreage in southern states more than doubled in 2014 to around 301,000acres (around 121,810 ha). Surprisingly, the U.S. medium grain acreage increased 6% y/y in

2014.

USDA reports that this year, southern states are planning to plant medium grain rice in about

311,000 acres (around 125,857 ha) while California total rice acreage is expected to further

decline to around 408,000 acres (around 165,112 ha), including 375,000 acres (around 151,757

ha) of medium grain.Keeping aside the acreage issue, most of the traditional customers of

California medium-grain rice such as Turkey, Taiwan, Turkey, Jordan, Israel and Saudi Arabia

have been buying medium-grain rice from the southern states. Normally, California rice is

known to be highly priced but the southern states have been offering medium grain rice atcompetitive prices.Due to this, California rice growers are left with huge quantities of last year's

stocks. Some rice growers told reporters that California medium-grain rice is also facing a stiff

competition from Australia as well, especially in the Middle East markets. The recent port

closures have also disrupted rice exports from California, they said. However, they are convinced

that if the drought continues this year also, prices may impacted significantly.

21st May,2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E_newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

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