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1.Nutn. Sci Foundation Sri Lanka 2006 34 2) 1-67

Petroleum depleting reserves rising prices and the unfolding energycrisisAnanda ~unati laka:'10, ~ h m n b o v i l ~ ,i l i yanda l a .

Received: 15 May 2006 ; Accepted: 9May 2006Abstract: Oil accounts for mo re th an 50 Oo of the world s energyrequirements; oil and gas together s upp ly almo st 70 OO About 65of the oil is used for transportation in an increasingly mo bile wo rld.A major crisis in the supply of these commodities can drasticallyaffect the price and bring modern society to a standstill. Supplyproblems have everything t o do w ith rising de mand (increasing at 2to per annum), regional and global events and now productionpeaks. Countries that have access to fu el resources an d supplies arenaturally the most technologically, economically and financiallypowerful on the world stage. Spiraling oil prices (as we are witnessingnow) will result in economic recession and currency inflation,eventually destabilizing the wo rld s e conom ies. Con seq uen tly, energysecurity should be a primary respons ibility of mainstream govern anceacross the world. We have already bur nt off half th e world s oil andgas reserves. The oil industry has reached its production peak andwill soon start the expected decline. Energ y experts indicate th at oilwill run out in about 40 years and natural gas in abo ut 60 years af r ig h te n in g p r o s p e ct f o r t h e w o r l d s e c o n o m i e s . H o w t h estakeholders respond to this impending crisis and cooperate inmanaging the decline will d etermine the future direction and stabilityof world economies. Conserv ation is the best s ho rt term s olut ion tothe crisis. Energy alternatives and renew able sources are still verymarginal and require a long lag time to come on stream. Co unt rieswill have to choose an energy mix t ha t suits them best in th e futur e.The era of cheap oil has end ed.Key words: Energy crisis, oil & gas depletion, oil prices, peak oil,R/P ratio

INTRODUCTIONFifty years after the first oil well was drilled in 1859,oil and gas was beginning to displace coal as the fuel ofchoice. They burned more cleanly and could betransported by pipelines, ship or rail. Yet, about halfof the energy produced is lost in distribution, wastageand inefficient use. It is well to remember that thesefossil fuels which have been locked up in the rocks formillions of years are being extracted today at such arate that in less than 250 years we would have depletedthem totally and of course they are non-renewable. We

use them up much faster than the geological processesthat produce them.

How much petroleum resources and reserves (oiland gas) are left in the rocks? How long will they last?Reserves are deposits that have already been discovered,proven or known and can be extracted economicallyand legally at the present time. Resources refer to thetotal quantity of petroleum that may eventually becomeavailable for use. Resources include reserves plusdiscovered deposits that are too poor in quantity orquality to be economically extractable now or aretechnologically difficult to mine and must await bettertechnology and/or higher prices before they can beprofitably mined, plus undiscovered deposits that awaitgeological discovery. As conditions change, someresources become reserves and vice versa

As this article is being written, the price of crudeoil reached an all time high of US 75 per barrel a riseof US 15 in two months. Tw o years ago it was US 33.Price wise, it is probably the most volatile commodityin the world. It is not only a question of providing fuelfor transportation, power generation and domesticheating. By-products of the petroleum industry are majoringredients in plastics, synthetic fibres, dyes, cosmetics,pharmaceuticals, explosives, fertilizers, records, tapes,compact discs etc. It is also refined t o produce propanefor stoves, kerosene, motor oil, lubricants and gasolinefor cars, tyres, tar and asphalt for roads. Modern societyis helpless without it. For those countries with no fossilfuels and a per capita income of < US 1000, the costof oil is prohibitive with attendant subsidies. They willbe dependent on aid handouts, loans and internationalfinancial institutions for their survival with debt servicingbecoming a permanent burden on economic growth.

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62 A n a n d a G u n a t il a kaThis article presents an overview of the impending

energy crisis as oil and gas reserves in the world are.now in depletion and expected to run out in 40 and60 years respectively. -loWorld oil reserves how much and where?

The total recoverable conventional oil discovered in theworld was about 2013 billion barrels (Bb); up to theend of 2005, about 1065 Bb (1.6 X lo1' m3 has beenproduced and burnt (exactly half).2 Of the rest, 00Bb is in the Middle East-Arabian-Persian Gulf region,which is about 70% of the known recoverable reserves.Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE possessnearly 60% of the reserves. North America accountsfor 8 per cent, Central and Southern America -7%,Eastern Europe 6 , Western Europe I%,Africa

6%, Australasia 4 'I?. To tal OPEC (Organization ofPetroleum Exporting Countries) producers account for80% of the proven reserves, OECD (Organization forEconomic Co-operation and Development) 10% and therest are non-OPEC producers. Of the 700 oddpetroleum basins, about 95% of the world's known oiloccurs in only 50 basins; 75 in only 10 of them3Themost prolific of these is the Arabian-Persian Gulf Basin.New basins were discovered in Central Asia-CaspianSea region and elsewhere, but this would not alter theexisting picture.

It seems a law of nature that the size of anypopulation follows a lognormal distribution. This is sofor mineral deposits, magnitude of earthquakes, incomelevels of a country and the periodic table (only 8 elementsmake up more than 1%of the crust each, by weight; Oand Si make up 75%; only ten elements make up 99 ).So it is for petroleum basins (95% of oil in only 50basins). This lognormal distribution means that a giant(500 X106 Bb of oil) o r supergiant oilfield (5 X109 Bb)discovery overshadows the hundreds of averagedisc~veries.~ost of the giants were discovered before1970. Between 1955 and 1970 was the peak, with fifty150 Bb fields discovered. There has been a marked declinein annual rate of additions to world reserves since 1970.Around the mid 1960s, new discoveries peaked andworld oil production overtook the growth of newreserves soon after and today we are using up 4 barrelsfor every new barrel discovered. That oil was a fastdepleting and non-renewable resource was not takenseriously and unrealistic optimism prevailed in the worldoil industry. Discoveries of ordinary oilfields continuedto soar, but hardly made a dent t o the emerging scenario.

The cost of finding a new oilfield is calculated inbillions of dollars. It takes 7 to 20 years to see a return

on upfront investments required for hydrocarbonexploration. T he cost of finding a new barrel of oil is

10 US cents to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia; it is morethan US$ 4 dollars in the USA and elsewhere.Production costs are US$ 1.50/ b in Saudi Arabia; aboutUS$ 5 globally and as high as US$ 10 elsewhere. TheArabian-Persian Gulf has the lowest oil finding andlifting costs. These costs need to be seen in the contextof OPEC, which have about 80% of the proven oilreserves and account for 40% of the production. Non-OPEC countries have the largest refining capacity(60/o)of world oil production.The R/P ratio and t he concept of peak oilAmerican geologist, King Hubbert over 50 years agoproposed that the rate of new oil discoveries dependson the fraction of oil that has not yet been discovered.Similarly, the rate of oil production depends on thefraction of oil that has not yet been produced. Hubbertdeveloped a mathematical model of petroleumextraction, which predicted that the rate of extractionover time would follow a logistic curve2. This impliesthat the predicted rate of oil extraction at any giventime would be shown by the value of the logistic curveat that time. The curve follows a bell-shaped patternnow called the Hubber t curve Figure 1). It shows, atfirst, a slow, steady increase in production, then a sharpincrease followed.by a plateau br the peak and final$a steep decline. The maximum output point is calledthe peak . Hubbert postulated that the world oilproduction rate peaks when half of the proven oilreserves have been extracted. After the peak, productionslowly tapers off and at some point it takes more energyto recover the remaining oil than the energy containedin them. At that point, the oilfield is abandoned.Hubbert accurately predicted that in the USA the peakwould occur in 1971 and that US oil would be exhaustedaround 2000. This model would apply only to atheoretical, unconstrained oil province, withoutpolitical or environmental factors in play. In 1997,

Figure 1: The original Hubbert curve of petroleum depletion andthe concept of peak oilJouvnal of the National Science Foundatzon of Sri Lanka 34 2) June 2006

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Petroleum depleting reserves rising prices an d the un fol din g energy crisis

1L NDG S LIQUIDS2 4 Scenario

Figure : World oil and gas depletion scenario in 2004 and peak oil estimates according to Campbell.6~ 2

geologist Craig Hatfield calculated that even if globaloil consumption remained steady, worldwide oilproduction would go into absolute decline by 2036.4But consumption keeps going up, increasing from 60mb/d in 1985 to 69 mb/d in 1995 to 85 mb/d in 2005(British Petroleum Energy Review5).Hatfield s date forpeak oil production is 2011.

These calculations are based on the well knownR/P ratio of the oil industry (R= reserves; P= dailyproduction of oil). s5The ratio is calculatedfor every oilproducing country and it gives the number of years ofoil production left. R/P varies from 19 years in NorthAmerica; 42 for South and Central America (Mexico);7for Western Europe; 22 for Eastern Europe; 95 for theMiddle East; 25 for Africa; 17 for total Asia andAustralasia;15for OECD; 80for OPEC and 16for non-OPEC countries. The current estimate for the wholeworld is 36 years.5Dr. Colin Campbell, an expert onpeak oil, using the most complete data set on petroleumstatistics (Pe.troconsultants / IHS, Geneva) made acomprehensive analysis on peak oil (Figure 2 .6Ratherthan using the R/P ratio, he factored in maximum oilproduction statistics for each country. His statisticalanalysis resulted in a peak oil date of 2010. Predictionshave been improved by time-shiftingthe discovery curveto match the production curve (Figure 3). ProfessorKenneth Deffeyes of Princeton University, USA,.whohas been tracking world reserves and production fordecades, after modelling and analysis of over 100 yearsof oil industry statistics, announced his historical dateof peak oil (Figure4). On the 16 hof December 2005 theworld s proven reserves of oil reached half its knownvolume - 1065Bb) in the rocks. Peak oil is the middlepoint of oil depletion; it follows from the Hubbert PeakT h e ~ r y . ~ - ~eak oil being a plateau will last for a fewyears, before the inevitable decline. The variousdepletion scenarios are given in Figure 5.*June 2006

Figure 3 : Graph showing relationship of oil discoveries and oilproduction rates over time. Note that discoveriespeakedprior to 1970. The large shortfall between currentproduction and future reserves is the impending oil crisis

as the gap continues to widen. Gb/a = gigabarrels perannum

Figure 4: Peak oil scenario according to Deffeyes. Total cumulativeoil production exceeded the mid point of oil reserves on16 h December 2005. Only the last two years, data isshown. www.princeton.edu/hubbert/.

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nanda Gunatilaka

Around 7 of the 50 major oil producer countries2re in decline, having passed the mid point of oil reservesyears a g ~ . ~ - l ~he ongoing global oil decline cannot bereversed by new discoveries (Figure 3 . There is nothingon the horizon to turn things around for the annual 1.7trillion dollar industry. Since 1985, each year's newlydiscovered oil reserves have amounted to only 40/o ofthat year's global consumption. Now it is down to about25%. Global oil production after rising steadily for 145years has peaked and will be on a downward trend.Today, the peak daily production is around 85 Mb (30Bb/annum) of which the USA accounts for 25% of theworld con~umption.~n another 25 years, oil productioncould be down to half this amount. With a 2-3% increasein annual demand (mainly from China, India, Japan,Korea and Taiwan) the supply side is being stretched tothe limit. Iran is the fourth largest producer of crude oil- 4 Mb/d). If there is an embargo over the nuclearissue, a severe worldwide recession is possible, keeping

in mind that 20% of the world's oil - 15-20Mb/d) andgas pass through the narrow and shallow Hormuz Straitsbetween Iran and Oman. The strategic implications areobvious. A drop in supply of 2 Mb/d is enough to causedisruption and prices will soar (as during the Iran -Iraqwar). OPEC is now producing at maximum output .Saudi Aramco, the world's largest single producer (9.15Mb/d in 2005) has announced that it is now producing

at maximum capacity. An increase on this figure willonly come at risk of damage to the oil reservoirs andincreasing walcr will1 ~ l i c il.

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Figure 6: Historical record of crude oil prices adjusted for inflation2nd bd c.J on 2224 \ ~lucs.cc text fordiccutrion Courtesyof ' 'I-RG Economics-

igure : Response of crude oil prices to major world and regionalevents, which affectedsupplyand caused price rises. Thebiggest impact on the oil price was the Iran- Iraq War in1979-1981(the third and fourth largest oil producers whocan pump 10Mb/d between them). See text for discussion.Courtesy of WTRG Economics

The price of oilUltimately, like any other commodity, it is supply anddemand that will determine the price of oil. With only36 years of reserves and increasing demand, prices willbe supersensitive to shortfalls with wild price swings.The historical record of oil price fluctuations is given

Figure 5: Theoretical models of production output from a group of in Figures 6 and 7. Note the influence of major worldoil and gas fields with the assumption that largcr fields and regional events on the price, when the demand-are found earlier and new discoveries have a negligibleimpact on re~erves.~pper graph- field production shows supply equation is disrupted. There are several ways ofa trapezoidal profile more typical of gas field.. Lower looking at the emerging crisis- Figure 6 shows that,graph- field productions show profiles typical of oil fields historically, the price of oil has not increased too much(rapid build-up followed by slow decline). in real terms if inflation is taken into account. In the

r - . . - l ,I L,. hl. . ;nl,~l ? r ; nn r o FnnnAnt inn n f Cri nnbn 34/71 June 2006

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Petroleum -depleting reserves r i i n g prices and the unfolding energy crisispost World War I1 era, the median and adjusted worldprice of crude oil was US 17/b at 2004 base prices,which means that only 50% of the time from 1947 to2004 have oil prices exceeded this value. In March 2000,a US 22-US 28 price band was adopted for OPECcrude. Before that , oil exceeded US 23 /b only inresponse to war and conflict in the Middle East. Since1869, world prices adjusted for inflation have averagedUS 19.41/b. We have had it very cheap for a very longtime. US dollars 75/b would certainly impact on theglobal economy. This would cause worry if the worldwas in an economic recession; but with over 4 % growthper annum, the global economy should be able to copeif certain structural adjustments are in place to conserveand curtail profligacy.

Oil P m M4 2006m v m % u ~

Figure 8: Oil price rise over the past two years, which has morethan doubled. courtesyWikipedia).Economists can advise whether it is better to have

oil at US 75 with 5 to 6 economic growth or 2 to 3growth at US 55 per barrel, provided interest ratesremain low and steady. What are unacceptable togrowing economies are high oil prices with high interestrates. Rising energy prices sets off chain reactions in theglobal economies, with rising inflation, highmanufacturing costs, weaker currencies, high costs ofconsumer products, high Current Account DeficitsCAD) and debt repayments for poorer nations,followed by recessions etc. High energy costs accountfor > 50%of the CAD of many nations (World Bank).Three of the last four global recessions were caused bysharp rises in oil price (Figures 6, 7).

The current price rise to US 75 has nothing to dowith peak oil. It has everything to do with surgingdemand from India, China, Russia, Brazil and Korea etc.(close to 3 billion toral populations) as they annuallylift large sections of their populations into the middle-

classes. Middle classes want to drive cars, build betterhouses, run air-condtioners, holiday abroad, gadgetry,computers, TVs, DVDs, CDs, cell phones and all otherparaphernalia of conspicuous consumption. All of thishas grave implications for total energy consumption.Here we are talking of 300 to 400 million people in thenew middle-class. For the next 25 years at most, carswill have to run on some form of refined oil. Theproblem is that there are so many of them with theseexpectations. By this time, China and India will probablyhave more cars than in the USA; Brazil and Russia morethan Japan. If it goes on uncontrolled, we may be headingfor a billion automobile world scenario. What price oilthen? Are these rational expectations? This is perhapsthe very first time that a soaring oil price has been causedby surging demand rather than some contrived or forcedpolitical event (Figure 8) . Unrest in Nigeria's oilproducing region (which suddenly removed 00,000b/d) and the Iranian crisis added to the price rise,doubling lronl Fc.bru.~~-j.0C4 to April 2006.

igure 9: World energy nsumption from different sources.Notethe projected 5ow rate of development of renewables.One quad = 10 j btu.

In another 5 years, oil will go over US 100 perbarrel, perhaps to US 125. But what if it doubles againin two years?More than 99 % of the energy consumerswould not have even heard of peak oil and the dwindlingsupplies to come. With enforced protocols on gasemissions and global warming, we will face moreconstraints. This is a good situation t o be in.Governments, oil companies and society will then thinkof conservation (the best additional source of energy)and other energy options seriously. It is wisk not tobelieve in what the oil producers and oil companies sayon this issue that oil reserves are ample for currentconsumption for the coming decades. But they will sayso even if it is not true.

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nandaGunatilakaAn, aggressive response to the impending crisis willrequire strong political will. Governments must do allit can to ensure energy security and sustainable growth.Any realistic economic planning must assume that inanother 5 years the oil price will be > US 100 perbarrel. All what we can hope for is a steady rise in theprice over time and not a sharp shock of doubling prices.

Wild price fluctuations, with gluts and shortfalls areprobably over. For sure, the era of cheap oil is finallyover. There is a high hidden cost to cheap oil. This isthe military protection of supplies. The USA spends -US 100 billion per year to ensure free flow of oil fromoil-rich unstable regions, whichis indirectly subsidizedby the taxpayers of consuming countries. The real costto the US economy could be as high as US IO per gallon.The low retail price of oil and gas gave a competitivemarket advantage over alternative energy mixes. Sincethe oil market is dominated by OPEC, the short termprice of oil will be controlled by the cartel and theoligopoly of oil companies (Figure 8). Oil is currentlytraded in US dollars. If OPEC decides to shift to astronger currency, say euros, the global economy willbe subjected to an upheaval with unpredictableoutcomes.Implications of peak oil scenariosThe Hubbert-Campbell model (the resource logisticcurve) is a very robust method for modelling futureglobal oil production (Figures 2, 3). Conventional oiland gas are in decline as half the proven reserves havebeen burnt up over the 140 years. All non-MiddleEast production is now a t a maximum of its physicalresource limits . If M-E supplies are reduced, anyshortfalls cannot be replaced by other sources. Even inthe OPEC, resource limits will force productiondeclines within 5-10 years.' Remaining supplies will beconsumed much faster due to increasing demands ofthe industrial world. A shift to natural gas is expected,but the global peak in gas production will also comewithin 20 years, (Figure 2). Total gas reserves are - 10trillion cu.feet SI units and half has been burnt off. Theglobal peak for both oil and gas will come within thenext 10 year^.^- The Campbell Model6 predicts thatonce past the peak plateau, global production ofconventional oil will decline at - 2 Mb/d or 3 peryear (see Figures 2 3). But annual increase of newdemand is - 3% and rising (BP). It will require at least4 Mb/d of new supply each year to satisfy this demand,which is no longer available. The International EnergyAdministration (IEA) calculates that - 19 Mb/d of non-conventional oil will be required by 2020 if demand isto be met. This is unlikely.

The problem with the R/P ratios as a predictor is thatit envisages a risk to oil supply difficulties only after 6years. Campbell's Model uses,peak production rates andcalculates the deciine thereafter (Figures 2 3). Heredeclining production is equated to the unsatisfiedcurrent demand, which is the key factor in future oilsupplies. The world economy will have to come toterms with the rising oil prices. The current high pricesare due to a combination of historically low prices,OP EC regional instability and rising demand in newlyindustrializing regions. Now is the time to tell the worldthat there is no more than 40 years of oil supplies leftin the rocks and that most of this is in the M-E countries.Non-conventional oil cannot offset the conventionaloil decline. If demand cannot be met, there will berationing, inflation, recession and international tensionas we have seen from time to time (e.g the O PEC crisisin the late 1970s, Iran-Iraq War, Gulf War I and nowthe Iran crisis). The greatest challenge to the oil industryand governments is to cooperate in managing thisdecline in an orderly way. It has been estimated by theUnited Nations that without hydrocarbons enoughfood can be produced for only 2.5 billion people. Todaythe global population is - 6 billion; it will be 7.3 billionin 2050.

The current production of 85 Mb/d may be at itsChina alone will require - 9 Mb/d by 2031 ifit sustains its growth rate at 8-10%. Obviously, suchvolumes will never be available and such growth ratesnear impossible due to the obvious supply constraints.Add India to this and there will surely be resource warsin the making. The permanent political tensions andinstability in the OPEC have much to do with theirlarge oil reserves. Access to these will determine whowill dominate the scene. The Chinese leader on a statevisit to Nigeria (271hApril2006) pledged to invest US 4billion in the energy sector, thereby making an entryinto African oil, which has been traditionally controlledby the West. China needs the oil and the vast Nigerianmarket for its exports. Last year, the Chinese NationalOil Company made a US 18 billion bid for the US OilCompany UNOCAL, which was disallowed by the USCongress.

The view of some economists' is that the marketwill solve the energy problems. Accordingly the presentcrisis will produce an economic stimulus, which willdiscover new resources and invent new technologies thatwould maintain equilibrium in the markets and thatregulations, which curtail economic growth are to beavoided. They do not say how growth can be maintainedwith a shrinking energy base. Globalization is amechanism to gain 'open access to resources across theglobe.

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Petroleum - depleting reserves, rising prices a nd the unf old ing ene; y crisis 67

Oil depletion is not a straightforward engineeringproblem. Technology only provides the infrastructureto run the oil and gas and is governed by the basic lawsof physics. With a depleting energy base there is justnot enough time t o replace a fuel so cheap, .abundantand versatile. Oil is rich in energy content, easy to use,store and transport. Oil and gas enabled us to operatehighly complex systems on enormous scales. Nothingcan replace it in time or scale. Most renewables and al-ternate fuels (wind, wave, solar, biofuels etc) are pres-ently very marginal and also take a lot of energy andneed the existing petroleum platform for future devel-opment (Figure 9). The non-conventional o il sector (oilshale, tar sands, coal gas etc) is still very far off."

Solar energy provides only marginal net energy andphotovoltaic cells PVC) are built from hydrocarbonfeed stocks. A global solar energy system would takeover a hundred years to build and will require most ofthe steel production in the w ~ r l d . ~ , ~ydrogen fuel cellsare not an energy source, but basically a form of energystorage. It requires energy to break the H - 0 bond andrelease the H,. Every major component of PVC andhydrogen fuel cells will require hydrocarbon energy tofabricate. Oi l cannot be replaced by a fuel cell economy.It will make an impact mainly in the automobile indus-try. Nuclear power plants are very expensive, takes 1015 years to build and require a petroleum platform forall stages of construction, maintenance, extraction andprocessing of nuclear fuels. It is also a finite resourceand has to live with the Chernobyl syndrome. But itcould be a viable option in th e future (Figure 9).

DIS USSION

The present levels of production and consumption ofpetroleum are unsustainable. Petroleum resources arefinite and non-renewable and there are technologicallimits to their extraction. Countries with 8-12% growthrates are doing so at the expense of dwindling resources.In a crisis, even the nuclear energy op tion would be onthe cards. Countries will have to go for a mix of energysources that suits them best, but reduce dependence onnon-renewable options. Alternate technologies taketime t o develop and still require access to vast suppliesof cheap oil and gas. Coal which is the only other fuelavailable in vast quantities, is not as efficient as oil andgas in energy conversion. It is unevenly distributed inthe world (mainly in China, USA, USSR and Australia

75%). These are high population countries, which willrequire it for their future use. Very little will be availableto the rest of the world. Further, it will be goingbackwards technologically. Alternate energy sources canbe developed, but will need a very long lag time to shift

the world's entire industrial and transportation systemfrom oil. This is no t a doomsday scenario but a warningto be aware of the future directions and uncertaintiesin an energy hungry world.

So, what are the immediate alternatives? Firstly,enforceable conservation measures will buy us valuabletime to enable the transition. Cutting down o n wastageand transforming inefficient existing technologies andsystems, better traffic control and mass transportationsystems, better engine technology to improveconsumption of oil are among the measures. Sincetran spor tati on accounts for 65% of petroleumconsumption, alternate technologies must come out ofthe labs and on to the streets quickly. The hard fact isthat the world simply does not have the resources tosustain a population of 6 o r 7 billion. It will be atechnology mix eventually as no single energy sourcecan replace oil (Figure9). An attitudinal and culture shiftaway from profligate oil use is needed.P.S. Readers of this article are advised to see the filmMad Max which is about a society running out of oiland gasAcknowledgementThe author thanks the Editorial Board of the NationalScience Foundation for the invitation to write thisarticle. He acknowledges Wikipedia, ASPO, WTRGEconomics, Elsevier for the diagrams used in this article.eferences

International Energy Agency (2000). World Energy Outlook.IEA, Paris.Deffeyes K.S. (2001). Hubbut s Peak. Princeton UniversityPress, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.North F.C. (1990). Petroleum Geology. Unwin and Hyman,Boston, Mass., USA. 631 pages.Hatfield C.B. (1997). Oil back on the global agenda. Nature387(6629):121.British Petroleum Statistical Revie w o f W orld Energy (2004).Campbell C. J. (1996). The status of world oil depletion at theend of 1995. Energy Exploration and Exploitation 14 1), 63-81.Campbell C.J. Laherrere J.H. (1995). The world's supply ofoil, 1930-2050. Perroconsultants S.A., Geneva.Bentley R.W.(2002). Global oil &gas depletion: an overview.Energy Policy 3 : 189- 205.DeffeyesK.E. (2005).Beyond Oil: hev iew fro m Hubbert speak.Princeton University Press, New Jersey, USA.www princeton edu/hubbert/:Ode11 P. R.(1994). World oil resources, reserves and production.7he Energy Journal (IAEE) 15, Special Issue, 89-114.Perrodon A., Laherrere J.H. Campbell C.J. (1998). Theworld's non-conventional oil and gas. The Petroleum EconomistLtd (March), London.Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)Newsletters (2003-2006). Also see www.peakoil . ie;www.peakoil.net; www.peakoil.com.