J Randers 1 J Randers 1 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL 2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Implications for AQPER 2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Implications for AQPER Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI Association Quebecoise de la Production d’Energie Renouvelable Montreal, March 11 th , 2015
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NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 1 J Randers 1
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
2052 – A Global Forecast
for the Next Forty Years
Implications for AQPER
2052 – A Global Forecast
for the Next Forty Years
Implications for AQPER
Jorgen Randers
Professor
Center for Climate Strategy
Norwegian Business School BI
Association Quebecoise de la Production d’Energie Renouvelable
Montreal, March 11th, 2015
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 2
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 2
Twelve scenarios
for the 21st century.
Warned against
growth beyond the
carrying capacity of
small planet Earth.
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0
1
1
1 1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3 4
4
4
4
5
5
5 5
Year
5: Nonrenewable resources
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
2: Food output
1: Population
Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year
0
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3 3
4 4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5: Nonrenewable resources
1: Population
2: Food output
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
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A forecast of global
development to 2052.
Predicts that the world will
follow the pollution
scenario in The Limits to
Growth, somewhat delayed.
See www.2052.info
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Main trends towards 2052
1. Slower growth – both in population and
GDP
2. Gradual shift towards renewable energy
3. Continued growth in man-made
greenhouse gas emissions
4. Steadily deteriorating climate
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0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population
Consumption
CO2
emissions
GDP
Temperature
rise
Past and future world
Max values 9 Gp, 150 G$/yr, 50 GtCO2/yr, 150 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 13
Figure 9-1a: Past and future World - State of Affairs -1970 to 2050
Central elements of the 2052 forecast
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
There will be huge regional differences
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
After-tax income per person (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)
US
OECD-less-US
China
World average
Rest of world
BRISE
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A much better future is possible
1. It is not impossibly costly
2. Requires a shift of 2 % of the world’s
labor and capital from dirty to clean
sectors
3. Is fiercely resisted by those who dislike
higher taxes and more regulation, plus
by the incumbent workers and owners
in the dirty sectors
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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050
World energy use will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0
60
120
180
240
300
0
4
8
12
16
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World
energy use
(←scale)
toe / M$ Gtoe / yr
Energy intensity
= Energy use
per unit of GDP
(scale →) 180
G$
/ yr
World GDP
(scale →→)
240
300
120
60
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6
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0,0
1,3
2,6
3,9
5,2
6,5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil use
Gtoe / yr
Nuclear use
Gas use
Coal use
Renewable energy use
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8
Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
World use of fossil fuels will peak around 2030
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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 emissions
(←scale)
tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr
Climate intensity
= CO2 per unit
of energy
(scale →) 15
Gtoe/yr
Energy use
(scale →→)
20
25
10
5
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9
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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050
Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 in atmosphere
(←scale)
deg C ppm
Temperature rise
(scale →) 0.9
m
Sea level rise
(scale →→)
1.2
1.5
0.6
0.3
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10
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What should be done?
1. Stop the use of fossil fuels in transport
2. Make buildings much more energy
efficient
3. Make manufacturing more energy
efficient
4. Build enough renewable energy
capacity (hydro, wind, solar for power;
solar and biomass for heat)
5. Build enough CCS to keep us below +2
deg Centigrade
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The long-term energy solution is obvious
1. Mainly electric, from climate friendly
sources. No coal, oil and gas
2. Most heat replaced by electricity (in
buildings, manufacturing, transport)
3. Cheap solar power, cheaper wind
power, some solar heat
4. Some gas and CCS in the transition
5. Some biomass, but not from slow-
growing species – they are more useful
for carbon storage
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What should you do?
1. Understand that the transition won’t
happen on its own – not fast enough
2. Exploit every opportunity that arise for
more renewables
3. Get into the energy efficiency business
4. Argue hard for more regulation: – ban (or tax) on cheap fossil solutions