2042 Population Growth Forecast

Population trends and implications for

Bexar County

Jennifer “Jen” T. Martinez, Strategic Initiatives ManagerBexar County Economic DevelopmentJanuary 2013

2042 Forecast

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New data

Key findings

What does this mean?

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July 2013 U.S. Metro Economies report by U.S. Conference of Mayors shows steady growth in nation’s metro economies

Report prepared by IHS Global Insight

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Historic African American Migration

Approximately five million southern blacks moved to the northern and western USA regions between 1915 and 1960 in search of a higher quality of life, particularly reflected via improved economic conditions.. 

Major destinations included Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and New York. 

Throughout the 1940s migrants shifted far west to Los Angeles, Oakland, San Francisco, Portland, and Seattle.

Source: blackpast.org

The Latino Diaspora U.S. Hispanics on track to become majority by 2050(less than 40 years)

Current Minority-Majority States or Equivalents

Hawaii (77% minority)

District of Columbia (65% minority)

California (60% minority)

New Mexico (60% minority)

Texas(55% minority)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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Metropolitan:The general concept of a metropolitan area is that of a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of social and economic integration with that core.

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U.S. Regional Representation by Number of Metros

Texas 7% Southwest

4%

Southeast 27%

Northeast 17%

Midwest 24%

Pacific 21%

Total Metros = 363

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U.S. metros with population greater than 1MTotal Metros = 363 51

in 2012

70in 2042

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U.S. Metros w/Highest Population Percentage Change(2012-2042)

Special Note

14 or 70%Southern Region

4 or 20%Texas 9

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U.S. Metros w/Lowest Population Percentage Change(2012-2042)

Special Note

10 or 50%Ohio region*

5 or 25%Michigan*Includes Wheeling, WV-OH 10

High Growth Texas MetrosAverage Population Change (2012-2042)

Rank Texas Metros % Change

1 Laredo, TX 97%

2 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 96%

3 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 91%

4 Brownsville-Harlingen, TX 79%

5 Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington, TX 66%

6 Houston-Sugarland-Baytown, TX 64%

7 Fort Hood, TX 64%

8 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 63%

9 College Station, TX 58%

10 Tyler, TX 50%

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Texas Metros versus Select State Economic Development Competitor Metros

Average Population Percent Change (2012-2042)

LocationAvg. Percent

Change(2012 - 2042)

No. Metros withChange Equal or

Greater Than 50%

Percent Metros withChange Equal or

Greater Than 50%

Metro with Highest Percent Change

Florida 62% 14 of 20 70% Palm Coast116%

Texas 44% 10 of 25 40% Laredo97%

S.Carolina 40% 2 of 10 20%Myrtle Beach-

N.Myrtle Beach-Conway, SC82%

California 38% 6 of 26 23% Riverside-Ontario83%

Illinois 14% 0 of 9 0% Bloomington-Normal31%

Ohio -2% 0 of 13 0% Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor26%

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Texas vs U.S.Average Population Percent Change(2012-2042)

LocationAvg. Percent Change

(2012 - 2042)

No. Metros withPercent Change Equal or

Greater Than 50%

Percent Metros withPercent Change Equal or

Greater Than 50%

U.S.A. 28% 60 17%

Texas 44% 10 40%

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2072 Snapshot: Top 5 Metros by PopulationEst. Population based on 2012-2042 % Change

Rank Location2042 Population

(thous.)2072 Population

(thous.)Percent Change

(2012-2042)

1New York-Northern New Jersey-

Long Island, NY-NJ20,728 22,469 8%

2 Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington, TX 11,034 18,261 66%

3 Houston-Sugarland-Baytown,TX 10,183 16,678 64%

4Los Angeles-Long Beach, Santa-

Ana, CA14,667 16,484 12%

5Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-

WI11,064 12,823 16%

19 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 3,650 5,938 63%

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2010: Top 20 Metros: Bachelors Degree or Higher as% of Total Adult (25+) Population for MSAs over 1 M People

San Antonio, Texas #48th

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2010: Top 20 Metros: Bachelors Degree or Higher as% of Total Adult (25+) Population for MSAs over 1 M PeopleSan Antonio, Texas #24 in 2012

2012 Snapshot: Top 20 Metros based on Total Population

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2010: Top 20 Metros: Bachelors Degree or Higher as% of Total Adult (25+) Population for MSAs over 1 M PeopleSan Antonio, Texas #21 in 2042

2042 Snapshot: Top 20 Metros based on Total Population

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2010: Top 20 Metros: Bachelors Degree or Higher as% of Total Adult (25+) Population for MSAs over 1 M PeopleSan Antonio, Texas #19 in 2072

2072 Snapshot: Top 20 Metros based on Total Population

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“Adios, Ozzie & Harriet”Population Growth Means Minority Growth

Hispanics & Asians Represent 71% Population Gain (2000-2010)

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Jennifer “Jen” T. MartinezStrategic Initiatives Manager

Bexar County Economic Development

T: 210.335.0872M: 210.268.6182

[email protected]/ed

@BexarBiz @TMASC

Contact Information

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Appendix 1:Regional Boundaries

PACIFIC MID-WEST

NORTHEAST

SOUTHWEST SOUTHEAST

TEXAS

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Appendix 2: Links

U.S. Metro Economies (core data)http://usmayors.org/metroeconomies/0712/FullReport.pdf

Hispanics from Coast to Coast Map (slide 5)http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443696604577645500654098514.html#

San Antonio Talent Migration Connectivity Profile (slide 15)http://therivardreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/San-Antonio-Talent-Migration-Connectivity-Profile.pdf

Majority-Minority Metros on the Rise Inforgraphic & Data (slide 20)http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2011/08/31-census-race-frey

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