2040 Socioeconomic Study - GLPC Presentation

Valdosta-Lowndes MPO2040

Socioeconomic Data StudyGreater Lowndes Planning Commission

October 28, 2013

Agenda

• Why?• What?• How?• Results!

Why do you need socioeconomic data?

• Planning for the future• The need for infrastructure improvements • The need for services• Federal and State regulations• MPO planning process• Qualified local government

• State legislation has greatly reduced comprehensive planning requirements• Data collection not required/unspecified• Land use element required for communities with zoning• VLMPO LRTP serves as transportation element• Valdosta is only city required to have housing element

What kind of data?

• Population, housing, and employment• Base and existing year data• 2010 base year • Today’s updates

• 2040 horizon year projections• Interim year projections

Planning Data

Transportation• Population and households• Income

• Employment• Service• Retail• Manufacturing• Wholesale

• Student enrollment

Comprehensive planning• Housing• Gender• Age• Race• Educational attainment• Labor force

How? Data Collection and Projection Process

• Base year data• Determine horizon year

control totals• Distribute growth• Traffic analysis zones or TAZs• Census tracts• Census block groups

• Verify and revise• Develop interim year data

Various Population Projections

Horizon Year Population – Lowndes County

Major Assumptions

• Projections based on historic change• DCA used to provide projections based on 1980 to 2000 Census data• DCA projections assumed variables are independent of each other• Transport Studio developed new projections

• Demographic characteristics will follow historic trend• Based on distribution in population

• For example, racial composition• Based on share of all households

• For example, housing types

• Household and employment growth will follow population growth trend• Ratio of jobs to housing in region• Kinds of jobs in region

Lowndes County Demographics

Population

Households

Housing Units

Total Employment

2010 109,233 39,747 43,921 54,340

2040 149,290 60,686 63,473 76,150

Households and employment follow population growth trend in the region

Sample Population Data and Projection

Sample Housing Data and Projection

Developable land by Growth Area and other

parameters

Future population and

employment distribution

Land already developed -or- not suitable for development

Land suitable for development

A

B

D

C

Distribute Growth to Zones, Tracts, Block Groups

A. Growth Areas within zone boundary

B. Suitable and available for development

C. Developable acres within each Growth Area are assigned jobs or housing

D. Developable acres with access to water or sewer service may be assigned jobs or housing

Population 2010

Population Density 2010

Population Density 2040

Employment Density 2010

Employment Density 2040

Findings

• Identified Growth Areas will accommodate most growth by 2040• Some households assigned to areas zoned residential with existing access to

water or sewer service• Service jobs assigned to areas with existing access to water or sewer service

based on zoning

• Industrial Growth Areas contain more land than will be needed by 2040 for projected manufacturing and wholesale jobs

Recommendations

• Consistent Census boundaries and traffic analysis zone boundaries• Update Census boundaries to reflect real life conditions if applicable• Adjust zone boundaries as needed

• Evaluate Growth Areas during plan update(s)• Evaluate land use scenarios with VLMPO travel demand model• Evaluate policies and development patterns through comprehensive planning

process

• Continue coordination with MAFB and other major employers

Thank youCorey Hull, [email protected]

Whitney Shephard, PE, LEED AP912-677-0430

[email protected]