2019 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electric …2019 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electric Sector Outlook Wesley Cole, Nathaniel Gates, Trieu Mai, Daniel Greer, and Paritosh

2019 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electric Sector Outlook

Wesley Cole, Nathaniel Gates, Trieu Mai, Daniel Greer, and Paritosh Das

January 9, 2020

W. Cole et al., “2019 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook,” NREL/TP-6A20-74110, 69 pp. (December 2019).

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What are the “Standard Scenarios?”

• Suite of forward-looking scenarios (projections) of the U.S. power sector

• NREL report that identifies themes from the scenarios

• Companion product of the Annual Technology Baseline– https://atb.nrel.gov/

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Why do we do the Standard Scenarios?

• Internal Value– Consistency across analyses– Improved efficiency

• External Value– Share our input assumptions and model results– Provide an additional perspective on power sector

evolution– Inform stakeholder decision-making

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Changes from Last Year

• ReEDS 2.0 Model Version - https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/reeds/• Scenario changes

– New scenarios:• Endogenous Retirements• Perfect Foresight• Shortened Cost Recovery• Individual High RE Cost scenarios

– Several scenarios removed• Model, input, and policy updates

– See Appendix A.2 of the report

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Webinar Outline

• Summary of the Standard Scenarios• Insights and perspectives from the 2019 Standard Scenarios

(i.e., what is in the report)• How to access the scenario data and model

The Standard Scenarios

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Tools & Method

dGenRooftop PV adoption

Bass diffusion

ReEDSCapacity expansion

Minimize total system cost

PLEXOS*Production cost

Minimize production cost

Scenarios Definitions

Standard Scenario Results

*Only a subset of scenarios were run in PLEXOS

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The Mid-case Scenario

• Fuel prices: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2019• Demand growth: AEO 2019• Technology cost and performance: 2019 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB)• Current policies as of July 31, 2019• Current fleet characteristics: EIA NEMS Plant Database

01234567

2018 2028 2038 2048

Fuel

Pric

e (2

018$

/MM

Btu

)

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.6

2018 2028 2038 2048D

eman

d G

row

thNatural Gas

CoalUranium

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U.S. Power Sector Evolution Over Time

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System Evolution by State in the Mid-case

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How theMid-case Compares

Comparisons:• Bloomberg New

Energy Finance (BNEF)

• Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• International Energy Agency (IEA)

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Sensitivity Scenarios

• Mid-case uses first entry in each category

• 36 total scenarios using the sensitivities shown at right

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Generation by Fuel Type Across the Scenarios

Theme #1: Changes in Technology Revenue with Evolutions in the Grid Mix

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Recent Trends

Source: EIA (various datasets)

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CAISO Example: PV Deployment and Energy Prices

05

101520253035404550

2012 2014 2016 2018

Aver

age

Ener

gy P

rice

($/M

Wh)

Noon

Midnight

Annual

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2014 2016 2018

PV C

apac

ity (G

WD

C)

As PV capacity increases, energy prices during the middle of the day declineSource: ABB Velocity Suite

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Grid Service Prices Across

Scenarios

Grid service prices, coupled with the contribution of a technology toward that service, determine the value of the technology

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Fraction of Revenue by Technology Type

2030 2050

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%W

ind

Nuc

lear

Hyd

ro PV Geo

CSP

Coa

lN

G-C

CBa

ttery

NG

-CT

Frac

tion

of R

even

ue

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Win

dN

ucle

arH

ydro PV Geo

CSP

Coa

lN

G-C

CBa

ttery

NG

-CT

StatePolicyOperatingReservePlanningReserveEnergy

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Average Curtailment Tends to Increase with VRE Penetration

Theme #2: Planning Reserve Provision in an Evolving Grid

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Planning Reserve

• Different from operating reserve

• Ensures sufficient capacity during peak periods

• “Resource Adequacy”

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Peak Demand Planning ReserveProvision

Capa

city

(GW

)

Planning Reserve

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Capacity Credit

• Capacity credit is the fraction of a nameplate capacity that is counted toward the planning reserve margin

RTO Wind PVPJM 12.3% 45.1%ERCOT Summer: 15% Non-Coastal / 58% Coastal

Winter: 20% Non-Coastal / 43% CoastalSummer: 74%

Winter: 12%CAISO Summer: 35%

Winter: 15%Summer: 43%Winter: 0.8%

ISO-NE Summer: 13.2%Winter: 39%

29%

NYISO Summer: 10%Winter: 30%

Summer: 39%Winter: 1%

MISO 15.2% 50%SPP Summer: 24%

Winter: 16%70%

Summary of Current or Proposed Market Rules –Subject to Change

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VRE Penetration Increases across the Scenarios

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Non-variable Capacity is Flat or Increasing

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Hourly Dispatch during Peak in Mid-case (2050)

Peak Net Load Day (August 8)Peak Load Day (July 26)

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Planning Reserve Provision is Largely from Non-Dispatchable Techs

Solar and wind still contribute, but to a much lesser degree than to the total capacity

Solar contributes very little in winter months

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Across all Scenarios, most Planning Reserve Capacity is from Non-Variable Technologies

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Total PlanningReserve

Total PlanningReserve

Total PlanningReserve

Non-variable Techs Wind PV

Frac

tion

of C

apac

ity in

205

0

RangeMid-case

Theme #3: Regional Generation Mix Trends

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Historical Changes in State-level Generation Mix

Source: EIA (various datasets)

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Marginal Curtailment Rate in 2050 in the Mid-case

Marginal Curtailment %

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Zero-price Hours in 2050

Percent of Hours at or Below $0/MWh Price

Accessing the Data and Model

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https://openei.org/apps/reeds/

Standard Scenario Results Viewer available at

Cloud icon downloads data into csv file

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ReEDS Model Available Now,dGen to Follow

https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/reeds/

https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/

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Summary

• Standard Scenarios provides a framework to– Improve analysis and modeling– Provide a perspective on the U.S. electricity sector evolution– Get access to state-level projections

• Themes from 2019:– How the revenue of technologies changes with the evolving

generation mix – How resource adequacy is maintained across scenarios as the

generation mix evolves to include more variable generation– How technology costs, policies, resource quality, and other factors

are leading to potential changes in regional-level generation mixes

www.nrel.gov

Questions or [email protected]

Full Report: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/74110.pdf

Results Viewer: https://openei.org/apps/reeds/

This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Programs. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.

NREL/PR-6A20-75798