20180312 Races to Watch Senate€¦ · election in 2006 just 37% of voters showed up, the lowest since 1974 and 20% less than the lowest presidential election year. ... Wayne County

NC Senate

With Democrats in 170 legislative seats, Republicans in 168, and even Libertarians filing in 35 legislative districts, 2018 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. And with no race on the ballot above Supreme Court, these elections will get more attention than ever before. This report combines an analysis of district voting data, national and state polling plus qualitative factors like local issues and relative candidate strength. In total, we think that 36 House races and 13 Senate races are shaping up to have competitive campaigns run by both of the major parties in districts that could conceivably go to either. We have also identified a handful of other races worth keeping an eye on for other reasons. A few caveats before we get to the districts:

Expect the unexpected: If we’ve learned anything from the last two years it’s that changing political dynamics, both local and national, combined with some unpredictable court rulings mean any time you feel in control, something will upend all expectations. Republicans have shown they will do anything to rig the system to their favor making things unpredictable. Redrawn maps: while we have a high level of confidence in the data we’re using, the recent nature of the map redraw (with challenges to some district lines still under consideration) makes analysis with 100 percent accuracy incredibly difficult. The blue moon: The lack of a statewide race above the NC Supreme Court seat means that turnout will be even more difficult to predict than in any election past. We are largely looking to last year’s Gubernatorial race along with some key demographics as predictors, but those are far from perfect for this year’s blue moon election. During the last blue moon election in 2006 just 37% of voters showed up, the lowest since 1974 and 20% less than the lowest presidential election year. Libertarians and unaffiliateds: As we noted Libertarians have filed a record number of candidates; in addition, the threshold for unaffiliated candidates to qualify for the ballot has been lowered. Folks outside the two major parties are a huge segment of the electorate and those candidates could play a decisive role in this year’s elections. Unaffiliated candidates have until May 8 to file and until June 11 to collect signatures from 4% of registered voters in their district. These are analyses not endorsements: we’ve looked for races that could be competitive in the general and made some educated guesses in a few primaries, but that shouldn’t be taken as an indication of support of any one candidate over another.

With those caveats out of the way, the second part of our report will take a look at 13 NC Senate districts that will have the most competitive general elections, and three other races worth keeping an eye on. Between redistricting, national climate, and the unpopular actions of Senate leadership, these races could be highly competitive. These are all districts that are open or held by Republican Incumbents, largely due to the fact that the Republican Senate Caucus has managed to take even Democratic leaning districts since taking the majority.

RFNC Election 2018 Report

District Democratic Candidate

Republican Candidate County Makeup

1 Cole Phelps * Contested

Camden: 6% Chowan: 8% Currituck: 14% Dare: 20% Gates: 5% Hertford: 10%

Hyde: 2% Pasquotank: 21% Perquimans: 7% Tyrrell: 1% Washington:

6% 7 Barbara D’Antonio Louis Pate Lenoir: 34% Wayne: 66% 9 Harper Peterson Michael Lee New Hanover: 100%

11 Al Pacer Rick Horner Johnston: 52% Nash: 48% 13 John Campbell * Danny Britt Columbus: 36% Robeson: 64% 17 Sam Searcy Tamara Barringer * Wake: 100%

18 Mack Paul Johnny Mac Alexander Wake: 100%

19 Kirk DeViere * Wesley Meredith Cumberland: 100% 24 J.D. Wooten Rick Gunn Alamance: 75% Guilford: 25%

25 Helen Probst-Mills Tom McGinnis * Anson: 12% Moore: 48%

Richmond: 23% Scotland: 17% 27 Michael Garrett Trudy Wade Guilford 100% 39 Contested Dan Bishop * Mecklenburg: 100% 41 Natasha Marcus Jeff Tarte Mecklenburg: 100%

Race to Watch

16 Wiley Nickel/Luis

Toledo * Paul Smith Wake: 100% 34 Contested Bob Rucho * Iredell: 83% Yadkin: 17%

38 Joel Ford/Mujtaba

Mohammed * Richard Rivette Mecklenburg: 100% Note: candidates in primaries are designated by * Note: Incumbents are in bold

Senate

House of Representatives

Senate District 1: The retirement of Republican Bill Cook makes this district in the northeastern corner of the state an open seat. On the Republican side, current House member Rep. Bob Steinburg has come out swinging against Clark Twiddy, a former naval intelligence officer, who has the support of several prominent members of Senate leadership and the retiring Sen. Cook. Democrat Cole Phelps, a Washington County Commissioner, has the backing of Senate Democrats in a primary against Steve James. This district leans Republican but being an open seat with primaries on both sides means anything can happen. Senate District 7: Incumbent Republican Louis Pate must overcome a primary challenge before he can face Democrat Barbara D’Antonio of Goldsboro, the current Wayne County Democratic Party Chair. Two-thirds of this heavily redrawn district is in Wayne County, with less than half of the new district’s voters having seen Louis Pate on their ballot before.

Competitive Districts

Senate District 9: Republican Incumbent Michael Lee is deeply unpopular at least partially because of the Senate Leadership’s failure to move toward meaningful solutions for the GenX crisis. This district encompasses nearly all of New Hanover County, which, as the mouth of the Cape Fear River, is the area most impacted by the crisis. Lee will face Democrat Harper Peterson, a former Wilmington Mayor. Senate District 11: Incumbent Republican Rick Horner has found himself in a substantially redrawn district that covers Johnston and Nash counties, with barely half of his current constituents living in the district he is now running to represent. Democrat Al Pacer, an Army veteran and scientist, hopes to unseat him.

Senate District 13: This district was one of the most deeply impacted by Hurricane Matthew in October of 2016, with much of its population displaced and early voting sites closed. Incumbent Republican Danny Britt won a surprise victory in this district in 2016 - the first Republican to win here since Reconstruction. A National Guardsman who served in Iraq, Britt quietly suspended his campaign to help with the storm recovery and people in the community took notice, which is credited as a key factor in this upset. Democrats John Campbell, a School Board Member and Bobbie Jacobs-Ghaffar, a small business owner, have a primary to decide who will go on to face Britt.

Senate District 17: Incumbent Tamara Barringer is a favored lieutenant of Senate Leader Berger and has been allowed to frequently “take a walk” on many of the Senate’s most controversial bills to sustain her “moderate” image in this her swing district. However, Barringer voted with leadership when it counted on veto overrides. She faces a serious challenge from Democrat Sam Searcy, a distillery owner. SD17 is a suburban Wake district with the highest college-educated population of all districts on the competitive list which national trends suggest will favor Democrats.

Senate District 18: Incumbent Republican John Alexander won the moderate Wake seat he currently holds by running ads saying he would vote as his Democratic wife told him. However, he stood with the Republican Supermajority when it counted, even when his vote wasn’t needed. He faces a challenge from Democrat Mack Paul, an attorney and former Chair of the Wake County Democratic Party. This district has changed substantially in the redraw and now includes Franklin County, so more than half of the residents in the new HD18 don’t live in the district that Alexander currently represents. Senate District 19: Incumbent Republican Wesley Meredith is a Fayetteville-area lawn care company owner who was elected in 2010 in one of the most divisive legislative elections in state history. Meredith, a top lieutenant of Senate Leader Berger, now finds himself in a redrawn district where 30 percent of the voters haven’t seen his name on their ballot before. Gov. Cooper won Meredith’s new district in 2016. However, given Meredith’s deep unpopularity with folks that know him, being less well known to the voters he’ll face might be an advantage. Meredith has a strong challenge from Democrat Kirk deViere, an Army veteran and small business owner. deViere is a former city councilor who must first win a Democratic Primary in this race.

Senate District 24: Incumbent Republican Rick Gunn is seeking a fifth term in this district that covers Alamance and a small part of Guilford County. Gunn’s district previously stretched into Randolph County instead of Guilford. Its location between major universities of the western side of the triangle and the triad give the district a large population of college-educated voters. Gunn faces a serious challenge from Democrat J.D. Wooten, an Air Force Veteran and intellectual property attorney. Senate District 25: Incumbent Republican Tom McInnis is a local auctioneer who was elected to the Senate in 2014 and now faces a Republican primary challenge. The voters who sent him to the General Assembly are gone from this redrawn district that includes fewer than half of the voters who have seen McInnis on their ballot before. McInnis faces a strong challenge from Democrat Helen Probst-Mills a community leader, mother of three, lawyer, and cancer survivor from Pinehurst in Moore County. Moore County is the most populous part of the district, making up just short of half of all voters.

Senate District 27: Incumbent Republican Trudy Wade is one of the most deeply unpopular incumbents in the state in part because of her antagonistic relationship with local officials and the local paper. Wade faces a rematch with Democrat Michael Garrett in the fall. Senate District 39: Incumbent Republican Dan Bishop is most known for his radical social conservatism and abrasive style. Bishop was a primary sponsor of discriminatory HB2 while in the House. The passage of HB2 led to a national boycott of North Carolina by major employers, conventions, sporting events, and entertainment figures, a disastrous economic consequence for the state. He faces a serious primary challenge from Republican Beth Monaghan. Bishop has been unrepentant and even sought to criminalize peaceful protests with a five-year minimum sentence after he and former Gov. McCrory continued to face criticism for HB2 in January of 2017. Nearly one-third of voters who saw Bishop on their ballot in 2016 are now in other districts. Democrats have a competitive primary on their side between sociology professor Dr. Ann Harlan and tech CEO Chad Stachowicz.

Senate District 41: Incumbent Republican Jeff Tarte will face reelection in a district won by Gov. Cooper that includes less than half of the voters that he currently represents due to the redraw. Tarte faces a strong challenge from Democrat Natasha Marcus, a volunteer leader of a non-profit and lawyer.

Senate District 16: This open seat was created in the redraw when incumbent Republicans Chad Barefoot and John Alexander were “double-bunked” and Barefoot chose not to seek re-election. The district is heavily Democratic with Governor Roy Cooper winning with over 60 percent of the vote here. It also has the highest college-educated population of any district in the state – probably not coincidentally, as it is the Wake district closest to the Research Triangle Park. The open seat has attracted a competitive Democratic primary. Cary Defense attorney Wiley Nickel is a former staffer for President Barack Obama and Vice-President Al Gore. Luis Toledo, the son of a Hispanic immigrant, enlisted in the U.S. Air Force following the Sept. 11 attacks and later served as a Presidential Management Fellow where he served assignments with Sec. Hillary Clinton at the State Department and at the Pentagon. Toledo moved back to North Carolina to start a family and currently works as a state budget expert focused on community investment. There are candidates for both the Republican and Libertarian parties filed here as well, but given the strong Democratic tilt of the district, it is difficult to see how the winner of that primary isn’t seated as the next Senator for this district. However, it’s a blue moon election, so don’t count anything out.

Races to Watch

Paul Smith

Senate District 34: This is an open seat formed in the redraw that is safely Republican with McCrory beating Cooper here 2-to-1. The seat is notable for its four-way Republican primary that includes former Senator Bob Rucho who had chose not to seek re-election for his Mecklenburg seat in 2016. Rucho was a co-chair of 2011 redistricting efforts and the architect behind Republican tax policies since 2013. The Republican Senate Caucus has been strangely quiet without him.

Senate District 38: Incumbent Democrat Joel Ford recently came in a distant third in Charlotte’s Mayoral race after running a campaign that made headlines for tasteless social media posts. He faces a strong primary challenge from Mujtaba Mohammed a public defender and former Vice-Chair of the Charlotte Democratic Party, who is active with a number of non-profits. Mohammed started his campaign at the end of November and raised nearly $50,000 by year-end filing. This is an extremely safe Democratic seat with Cooper taking 75 percent of the vote here in 2016, but is also the Senate seat most likely to have an incumbent lose a primary.