2017 RESIDENTIAL SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK Stefan Linder Sunrun 1/26/2017 San Diego, CA
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2017 RESIDENTIAL SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK
Stefan Linder
Sunrun
1/26/2017
San Diego, CA
TOP 3 TRENDS IN RESIDENTIAL SOLAR
1) Material cost improvements will flow through to higher customers savings, and will facilitate new markets
2) Market growth slowing to a more sustainable rate
3) Other states will grow faster than California
AGENDA
• Sizing the market
• Market shares
• Pricing trends
RESIDENTIAL SOLAR PENETRATION IN KEY MARKETS
Source: GTM Research, US Census
NATIONAL FORECAST (MW)
= ~6GW, 1M systems
Source: GTM Research
NATIONAL FORECAST (MW)
= ~6GW, 1M systems
Source: GTM Research
OTHER STATES ARE NOW GROWING FASTER THAN CALIFORNIA
= ~6GW, 1M systems
Source: GTM Research
KEY STATE RESIDENTIAL FORECAST (MW)
Source: GTM Research
AGENDA
• Sizing the market
• Market shares
• Pricing trends
MARKET SHARE BY INSTALLER% OF MW INSTALLED
Source: GTM Research, public disclosureNote: Sunrun excluded prior to Q1 ‘15
THIRD-PARTY OWNED (TPO) MARKET SHARE, Q3 2016
Source: GTM Research
AGENDA
• Sizing the market
• Market shares
• Pricing trends
REPORTED CAPACITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE SYSTEM PRICES ($/W)
SYSTEM COSTS ($/W)
Source: GTM Research, SolarCity, Vivint Solar
Approx $0.25-$0.40/W
opportunity to reduce
material costs in 2017
AVERAGE SYSTEM COST, Q3 2015-Q3 2016 ($/W)
THANK YOU!
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