Decision Modeling and Game Theory Development Colloquium at DTS-SBU Nasir J. Sheikh B.Sc., M.Sc., Ph.D. Department of Technology and Society College of Engineering and Applied Sciences State University of New York, Korea [email protected][email protected]July 19, 2016 1
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1
Decision Modeling and Game Theory Development
Colloquium at DTS-SBUNasir J. Sheikh B.Sc., M.Sc., Ph.D.Department of Technology and SocietyCollege of Engineering and Applied SciencesState University of New York, [email protected]@stonybrook.eduJuly 19, 2016
2
The World of Decision Making Hierarchical Decision Modeling Assessment of Solar PV Technologies Game Theory Development Related Research at SUNY Korea
Outline
3
The World of Decision Making
4
Decision Making
Ref: www.boku.ac.at/mi
5
Decision by Loudest Voice• The highest authority
• The risk taker• The recognized expert
Recommendations
*BOGSAT: Bunch of Guys/Gals Sitting Around A Table
Data Science, Dashboards, Analytics
B O G S A T*
6
Decisions and Effect on Change
Sound Decision
Effective Execution
Successful Change
Decision is not Outcome
7
Decision LevelsLevel Duration ProcessingStrategic Days/Weeks/Months Rigorous Process with
Organizational Complexity Parties in conflict Individual &
organizational differences
Values, desires, and motivations
Initial convictions Fundamentally
different frames Personalities Competencies Degrees of Power Resource Availability
Group dynamics
Ref: Carl Spetzler
Analytic Complexity Uncertainty Dynamic situations Options Inter-related important variables Multiple alternatives Inter-related decision criteria Multiple players with
competing perspectives
Facilitative Leadership
Heuristics
Rigorous Decision
Processes/Modeling
Decision Analysis
Low High
Low
High
10
Hierarchical Decision Modeling
11
Appropriate frame Creative doable alternatives Meaningful, reliable information Clear values and trade-offs Logically correct reasoning Commitment to action
Decision Elements of Strategic Decision Quality
Ref: Carl Spetzler
12
Use a Hierarchical Decision Model
HDM Problem/Overall
Objective
Perspective1 Perspective 2 Perspective N
Criteria A
Criteria B
Alternative 1 Alternative 3
Alternative 2 Alternative 4 …….
13
Strategic Planning Resource Allocation Source Selection Business Policy Public Policy Program Selection Technology Selection etc.
HDM Applications
14
Can be used to address complex problems Steps
◦ State the objective◦ Define/select the criteria◦ Select the alternatives◦ Obtain the relative importance of the criteria◦ Determine the relative contribution of each
criterion top the objective◦ Compare the alternatives with respect to lowest
Opportunities(0.3) Costs(0.3) Risks (0.4) Final Outcome
Fund ASCR 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.36Fund ESCR 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.36No fund 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.28
Assessment of Solar Photovoltaic Technologies Using Multiple Perspectives and Hierarchical Decision Modeling
Social
Technical
EconomicEnvironmental
Political
17
Outline1. Background/Motivation for Research2. Research Questions & Objectives3. Research Process and Methodology4. Research Results5. Research Assumptions, Limitations,
and Future Work6. Conclusion
18
Background / Motivation for Research Develop a framework for assessment
of renewable technologies having broad societal implications using decision modeling.
Literature review of energy-related multiple perspectives and decision modeling revealed gaps.
Focus on PV technologies assessment.
19
Solar PV: Growth in Global Deployment
Global Solar PV Electricity Production by End-Use Sector 2010-2050 (2009) [1]
Worldwide Distribution of PV Electricity [2]
Multiple Deployment Types
Global Expansion
20[1] “Energy Technology Roadmaps: Charting a low-carbon energy revolution,” 2009.[2] EPIA, “Global market outlook for photovoltaics until 2014,” European Photovoltaic Industry Association, 2010.
- PV is globally deployed- PV supports multiple types of deployment- Pricing at power parity
Solar PV: Technologies
21[Ref: L. Kazmerski, “Best Research Cell Efficiencies Chart,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 2010. ]
-Mixed landscape of technologies- Five generations- Efficiency improving- Not easy to select best technology
Multiple Perspectives: S-T-E-E-P Social
◦ Impact on society Technical
◦ Technical performance Economic
◦ Cost of technology diffusion, market adoption, and life-cycle costs (push-pull-sustenance)
Environmental◦ Impact on the environment and ecosystem
Political◦ Political motivation, policies and regulations,
market special interest, compliance, and security
22
Value of Using Multiple Perspectives Evaluate which technology is the
“winning technology” under STEEP perspectives
Identify and prioritize areas of improvements for alternative technologies being considered
Applicable to decision makers with different worldviews – e.g. electric utility, policy maker, manufacturer, etc.
23
Literature Review: Research Gaps Wide variety of multicriteria decision
making methods used in renewable energy comparisons but not all 5 STEEP perspectives considered
STEEP assessments at conceptual level not translating to specific action*
Specific and actionable criteria needed
24
* Example: In economic perspective—as part of STEEP decision models—product cost is not decomposed into a bill of materials: PV module, Balance-of-System (BoS), etc. This is typically performed as a separate economic analysis, but not as part of decision modeling.
Research Objectives Develop a comprehensive method to
evaluate solar PV technologies under the STEEP perspectives
Enable decisions in a complex environment with competing perspectives and criteria
Perspectives
Mission Tech. Value
Social Technical Economic Environmental Political
25
Research Questions How can a robust, operationalizable STEEP
model be developed? How can this model be standardized for a
broad variety of PV/renewable energy technologies?
How can decision makers with different worldviews use this model? - Policy makers - Energy utilities - Technology suppliers - Universities/National
labs
26
Decision makers’ worldview may be defined as the overall perspective from which the decision making body sets priorities.
Includes multiple perspectives Includes built-in biases of experts Frequently used multi-criteria decision model for
complex problems Diverse strategies can be developed based on
decision making worldview Enables new alternatives to be added - e.g.
candidate technologies to be assessed
29
Mulitcriteria Decision Models*
Description
Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM)
Value measurement model with multiple levels. Also refer to bullet points above.
Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
Value measurement models which include probabilities.
Outranking (French School) ELECTRE, PROMETHEE. Useful for initial screening, but not assessment of alternatives.*Reference: E. Loken, “Use of multicriteria decision analysis methods for energy planning problems,”
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 11, no. 7, pp. 1584–1595, Sep. 2007
Research Process – Stage 1Hierarchical Decision Modeling
Explicit articulation of decision elements
Comparisons of quantitative and qualitative competing decision elements
30
Hierarchical Decision Model Framework for Assessment of Technologies*
31*Research based on N. Gerdsri and D. F. Kocaoglu, “A Quantitative Model for the Strategic Evaluation of Emerging Technologies,” Proceedings of the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, Portland (PICMET), Seoul, Korea, 2004.
Renewable Energy Technology Assessment
P1
P2
P3
P4
PK=5
C21
CJk1
C11
C1K
C2K
CJkK
... ...
F1,11
F2,11
FXj,11
...F1,JkK
F2,JkK
FXj,JkK
Mission (M)
Perspectives (Pk)
Criteria (Cjkk)
Factors (Fxj,jkk)
Desirability Functions (DFxj,jkk)
Technology Characteristics (tn,xj,jkk)
Candidate Technologies (Tn) T1
T2
TN
…….T3
...
…….
…….
DF1,JkK
DF2,JkK
DFXj,JkK
...DF1,11
DF2,11
DFXj,11
...
t1,1,11
t2,1,11
tN,1,11
t1,Xj,JkK
t2,Xj,JkK
tN,Xj,JkK
......
…….
…….
Technology Value Formula Descriptions of Variables
𝑇𝑉𝑛 ∶ Technology value of technology (n) as a candidate for fulfilling the mission of determining the best technology. Values range from 0 to 100. 𝑝𝑘 ∶ Relative priority of perspective (𝑘) with respect to the mission 𝑐𝑗𝑘,𝑘 ∶ Relative importance of criterion (𝑗𝑘) with respect to perspective (𝑘) 𝑓𝑥𝑗𝑘,𝑗𝑘,𝑘 ∶ Relative importance of factor (𝑥𝑗𝑘)with respect to criterion (𝑗𝑘)
𝑉ቀ𝑡𝑛,𝑥𝑗𝑘,𝑗𝑘,𝑘ቁ ∶ Desirability value of the performance and physical characteristics of technology (𝑛) for factor (𝑥𝑗𝑘), criterion (𝑗𝑘), and perspective (𝑘). The desirability values are along the desirability function for that specific technology characteristic and values range from 0 to 100. 𝑡𝑛,𝑥𝑗𝑘,𝑗𝑘,𝑘 : Performance and physical characteristics (metrics) of technology (𝑛)
Technology Value
32*Research based on N. Gerdsri and D. F. Kocaoglu, “A Quantitative Model for the Strategic Evaluation of Emerging Technologies,” Proceedings of the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, Portland (PICMET), Seoul, Korea, 2004.
Research Process: Stage 2Expert Panels Selection Six Expert Panels
◦ Decision makers◦ Social scientists ◦ Technologists and engineers◦ Economists◦ Environmental scientists◦ Political scientists
35
Perspectives
Mission Technology Assessment
Social Technical Economic
Environmental Political
Expert Panels Selection
36
Expert Panel Type Experts
Decision makers to rank the perspectives for the northwest United States electric utility worldview 3Social scientists to rank the contribution of each criterion to the social perspective 10Technologists and engineers to rank the contribution of each criterion to the technical perspective 12Economists to rank the contribution of each criterion to the economic perspective 11Environmental scientists to rank the contribution of each criterion to the environmental perspective 10Political scientists to rank the contribution of each criterion to the political perspective 9
Expert Panel for Criteria Desirability Functions
Experts
Social perspective 11
Technical perspective 13
Economic perspective 8
Environmental perspective 8
Political perspective 8
Experts balanced from: academia, industry, and national labs
Average expert experience is 20 years
Research Process: Stage 3Data Collection Data collection using experts
◦ PSU-HSRRC Approval for Human Subjects Research (IRB)
◦ Use combination of emails and web instruments (Qualtrics and HDM Software)
◦ Finalization of HDM◦ Judgment quantification with pair-wise
comparisons (for relative importance of elements using constant sum)
◦ Desirability function for each criterion
37PSU-HSRRC: Portland State University, Human Subjects Research Review Committee
HDM Element Contributions to the MissionSocial0.15
S1: Job Creation0.050
S2: Health Effects - During Production
Phase0.039
S3: Health Effects - During Operations
Phase0.033
S4: Negative Publicity
0.027
Technical 0.22
T1: Module Energy Efficiency
0.029
T2: Power Density0.015
T3: Module Durability
0.024
T4: Module Reliability
0.029
T5: Potential Induced
Degradation (PID) Performance
0.040
T6: PV Module Design Flexibility
0.018
T7: State of Power Plant Installation
Worldwide0.013
T8: State of Field Performance
0.013
T9: Maintenance Required
0.011
T10: Life of PV Panel0.013
Economic0.30
E1: Total Purchase Cost of PV Panels to Utility
0.033
E2: Warranty/ Maintenance Cost
0.024
E3: Total Associated Inverter and Balance-of-System Purchase Cost
0.033
E4: Disposal Cost0.015
E5: Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
0.090
E6: Return on Investment
0.054
E7: Cost of Risk0.024
E8: Supply Chain Maturity
0.012
E9: Global Production/Supply
Volume0.009
E10: Use of Rare Elements
0.006
Environmental0.20
N1: Emission of Greenhouse and Pollutants During
Production0.028
N2: Negative Ecological Footprint
0.026
N3: Use of Available Land0.024
N4: Use of Hazardous Materials
0.044
N5: Water Consumption During
Operations0.024
N6: Consumption of Other Materials
During Operations0.016
N7: Recyclability at End-of-Life
0.016
N8: Waste Chemicals at End-of-Life
0.014
N9: Waste Gases at End-of-Life
0.012
Political0.12
P1: National Priority0.011
P2: GovernmentIncentives
0.034
P3: Regulatory Risk0.028
P4: Relations with Local Politicians
0.014
P5: Local Sourcing0.016
P6: Conformance to Existing Political,
Legal, Management Constructs by
Utilities0.018
38Top-ranked
HDM Element Contributions to the MissionSocial0.15
S1: Job Creation0.050
S2: Health Effects - During Production
Phase0.039
S3: Health Effects - During Operations
Phase0.033
S4: Negative Publicity
0.027
Technical 0.22
T1: Module Energy Efficiency
0.029
T2: Power Density0.015
T3: Module Durability
0.024
T4: Module Reliability
0.029
T5: Potential Induced
Degradation (PID) Performance
0.040
T6: PV Module Design Flexibility
0.018
T7: State of Power Plant Installation
Worldwide0.013
T8: State of Field Performance
0.013
T9: Maintenance Required
0.011
T10: Life of PV Panel0.013
Economic0.30
E1: Total Purchase Cost of PV Panels to Utility
0.033
E2: Warranty/ Maintenance Cost
0.024
E3: Total Associated Inverter and Balance-of-System Purchase Cost
0.033
E4: Disposal Cost0.015
E5: Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
0.090
E6: Return on Investment
0.054
E7: Cost of Risk0.024
E8: Supply Chain Maturity
0.012
E9: Global Production/Supply
Volume0.009
E10: Use of Rare Elements
0.006
Environmental0.20
N1: Emission of Greenhouse and Pollutants During
Production0.028
N2: Negative Ecological Footprint
0.026
N3: Use of Available Land0.024
N4: Use of Hazardous Materials
0.044
N5: Water Consumption During
Operations0.024
N6: Consumption of Other Materials
During Operations0.016
N7: Recyclability at End-of-Life
0.016
N8: Waste Chemicals at End-of-Life
0.014
N9: Waste Gases at End-of-Life
0.012
Political0.12
P1: National Priority0.011
P2: Government Incentives
0.034
P3: Regulatory Risk0.028
P4: Relations with Local Politicians
0.014
P5: Local Sourcing0.016
P6: Conformance to Existing Political,
Legal, Management Constructs by
Utilities0.018
39Top-ranked
Criterion added by experts
Perspective priorities represent Worldview of Electric Utility. These maybe different for other worldviews.
T7 State of Power Plant Installation Worldwide Not Deployed Heavily Deployed
T8 State of Field Performance Testing Initiated Tested > 10 YearsT10 Life of PV Panel 1-9 Years 16-25 YearsE1 Total Purchase Cost of PV Panels to Utility 76-100% 26-50%E3 Total Associated Inverter and Balance-of-
System Purchase Cost 101-200% 76-100%E6 Return on Investment <5% 11-15%E7 Cost of Risk 21-30% <10%E8 Supply Chain Maturity Ad Hoc ExtendedE9 Global Production/Supply Volume No Supply Supply Exceeds
DemandP5 Local Sourcing Very Low Complete
*This scenario applies to a US NW Electric Utility worldview. 16 Criteria need to be improved.
Research Process: Stage 5Sensitivity Analysis Calculating the impact of the variation of an
element (or combination of elements) on the decision
PV Technology rank order changes with dominant environmental perspective
47
Game Theory Development
Strategic Decision Making Strategic decision making has two main
branches:◦ Decision modeling (consensus)◦ Game theory (dissent and conflict).
Research in decision modeling has mainly focused on the ranking of alternative choices based on a consensus or combined judgments of experts and decision makers.
However, a decision model can also be used to form the basis of rational conflict and dissent.
48
Consensus Approach: STEEP Values
49
STEEP Perspective Relative Value
Social 0.12
Technical 0.23
Economic 0.27
Environmental 0.22
Political 0.15
50
Technology Values under Consensus for Five PV Candidate Technologies
50
Ranking: 1 2 3 4 5
Dominant Strategy: Case of Conflict
Example: Social Perspective is dominant
51
STEEP Perspective Relative Value
Social 0.96
Technical 0.01
Economic 0.01
Environmental 0.01
Political 0.01
Technology Rankings Under Different Dominant Strategies
Game – HDM model (representing players) Players – perspectives (rational) Payoffs – ranking of alternatives (ordinal
values) Incomplete Information Variable Sum Game Non-Cooperative Game Normal (not extensive) Game
53
Current Game Theory Limitations Small number of players Small number of decision elements Large number of assumptions Otherwise the calculus becomes too
complex
54
Hierarchical Decision Modeling may provide an alternate approach.
Conclusion and Future Work Applications of HDM can be for cooperation
and conflict by leveraging different aspects of the model.
Future research will focus on developing game theory for HDM and also applying this approach to applications in energy, finance, and healthcare.
55
56
Related Research at SUNY Korea - DTS
57
Multi-dimensional assessment of tinnitus treatments
Strategic roadmapping for policy and technology foresight: deployment of solar technology
Assessment of arms suppliers to establish an import policy
Determinants of policy change in technology standardization
Determining success factors for small to medium businesses (SMEs)
SUNY Korea Ph.D. Research Related to Decision Modeling
Thank you.
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Backup Slides
60
• Founding faculty and Assistant Professor in the Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences at State University of New York, Korea.
• Research interests include technological innovation and commercialization, technology assessment, decision modeling, and analytics
• 30 years of industry experience in building global information and communications technologies (ICT) businesses as an executive in technology management, sales, and marketing.
• Ph.D. degree in Technology Management from Portland State University, M.S. degree in Electrical Engineering from King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia, and B.S. degree in Electrical Engineering from Middle East Technical University, Turkey.
Bio
61
Strategic decision making theory involving multiple players has two branches. One is based on decision modeling and the other on game theory. Decision modeling is the research area of the author and relies on a consensus approach to rank decision alternatives. This decision analysis methodology is useful in addressing complex scenarios involving multiple decision makers and criteria. The criteria may be qualitative or quantitative and typically, compete for priority. It may be also the case of comparing “apples to oranges.” The main focus of this lecture is hierarchical decision modeling using multiple perspectives. The ranking of alternative choices is based on a consensus or combined judgments of experts and decision makers. This lecture examines the case of a hierarchical decision model that is used to assess alternative solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies under multiple perspectives including: social, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP). However, this decision model can also be used to form the basis of rational conflict and dissent which is the domain of game theory and is more oriented towards conflict and cooperation to decide the winning strategy. Dissent is evident if only one dominant perspective is considered to evaluate the alternate PV technologies. By using such a decision modeling approach outcomes for both consensus and dissent scenarios can be observed. This research could be developed further to form a basis of a type of game theory with large numbers of players and preferential criteria. This area may be important since traditional game theory has limitations here.
Abstract
Renewable Energy Technology Assessment
P1
P2
P3
P4
PK=5
C21
CJk1
C11
C1K
C2K
CJkK
... ...
Mission (M)
Perspectives (Pk)
Criteria (Cjkk)
Desirability Functions (DFjkk)
Technology Characteristics (tn,jkk)
Candidate Technologies (Tn) T1
T2
TN
…….T3
…….
DF1,K
DF2,K
DFJk,K
...DF11
DF21
DFJk1
...
t1,11
t2,11
tN,11
t1,JkK
t2,JkK
tN,JkK
......
…….
…….
HDM with No Factors
62
𝑇𝑉𝑛 = 𝑝𝑘 ∙𝑐𝑗𝑘,𝑘 ∙𝑉൫𝑡𝑛,𝑗𝑘,𝑘൯𝐽𝑘
𝑗𝑘=1𝐾
𝑘=1
Research Process: Stage 6Validation
63
Research Validation Test Methods When Applied
Content ValidityPilot testing, evaluation by experts, and literature review
During research instrument and model preparation
Construct ValidityPilot testing, evaluation by experts, and literature review
After the development of the model
Criterion-Related
Validity
Pilot testing, use of expert judgment, and literature review
After the results are compiled
ReliabilityStatistical and built-in consistency and disagreement analysis
After the results are compiled
PracticabilityPilot testing and checking for inherent practicability