Can You Tell FRIEND From FOE? WE CAN. Globally Deployed, All-Mode, AIMS Certified IFF Technology To learn more about our field proven IFF capabilities, visit www.telephonics.com. defensenews.com Vol. 31 No. 6 $4.50 F-35 Purchase Drop Pentagon officials deny price impact of reduced acquisition. 6 INVASION ON HOLD? Plans by Gulf partners to enter Syria appear shaky. 4 BACK TO EUROPE US Pivot to Asia de- layed by return to Europe. 8 WASHINGTON — With few surprises in the budget request unveiled by the Pentagon last week, reaction was largely muted as the $582.7 billion spending lev- el complied with limits set by last year’s budget deal. During the rollout, defense officials touted the budget’s efforts to balance near-term priorities — including ongoing conflicts against the Islamic State and bolstering European defenses against Russian aggression — with long-term ef- forts to stay ahead of potential peer and near-peer adversaries of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. While the funding levels set by 2015’s Bipartisan Budget Act — $523.9 billion in base budget with an additional $58.8 billion in overseas contingency opera- tions (OCO) funds — represented a $2.4 billion increase from the previous year’s appropriations, the new levels still came in almost $22 Mike Morones/Staff President Obama’s FY2017 budget is delivered to the Senate Budget Committee on Feb. 9. Boosts Funds for European Initiative BY ANDREW CLEVENGER [email protected]See BUDGET, Page 18 Pentagon Budget Seeks To Leverage R&D Investments SPENDING PLAN Related Stories: Military services and congressional budget coverage. Pages 6, 8, 10, 20 TEL AVIV — To facilitate Israel’s long-term planning and spending needs, US President Barack Obama’s administration is offering Prime Min- ister Benjamin Netanyahu a consoli- dated aid package that essentially guarantees expanded top-line funding from State Department and Pentagon accounts each year for the next dec- ade, starting in 2018. The proposed package, a follow-on to the $30 billion, 10-year memoran- dum of understanding signed in 2007, would grant Israel more leeway — in- cluding reprogramming authority – over a considerably larger amount of grant aid than that provided in the cur- rent agreement. There’s just one catch: Israel will have to forgo annual plus-ups to the president’s budget from Congress ex- cept for extreme emergency cases. “The benefit is we won’t need to hag- gle every year, first with the admini- stration and then with Congress. We’ll have a pretty much guaranteed top- line that will help us enormously in long-term planning,” a recently retired senior Israeli security official said. “The downside, of course, is we’ll lose the ability for annual plus-ups on missile defense, anti-tunnel capabili- ties and other programs funded by the Pentagon in all but the most-extreme See AID, Page 18 AID TO ISRAEL Obama Offers Israel 10-Year Aid Package; There’s a Catch BY BARBARA OPALL-ROME [email protected]AIR LAND SINGAPORE AIRSHOW Asian nations steadily bolster air power Page 12 SPECIAL REPORT February 15, 2016
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Can You Tell FRIEND From FOE? WE CAN.Globally Deployed, All-Mode, AIMS Certified IFF Technology
To learn more about our field proven IFF capabilities, visit www.telephonics.com.
defensenews.com
Vol. 31 No. 6 $4.50
F-35 Purchase DropPentagon officials
deny price impact of
reduced acquisition. 6
INVASION ON HOLD?Plans by Gulf partners
to enter Syria appear
shaky. 4BACK TO EUROPEUS Pivot to Asia de-
layed by return to
Europe. 8
WASHINGTON — With few surprisesin the budget request unveiled by the
Pentagon last week, reaction was largelymuted as the $582.7 billion spending lev-el complied with limits set by last year’s
budget deal.
During the rollout, defense officialstouted the budget’s efforts to balance
near-term priorities — including ongoingconflicts against the Islamic State andbolstering European defenses against
Russian aggression — with long-term ef-forts to stay ahead of potential peer and
near-peer adversaries of Russia, China,
North Korea and Iran.While the funding levels set by 2015’s
Bipartisan Budget
Act — $523.9 billionin base budget withan additional $58.8
billion in overseascontingency opera-tions (OCO) funds
— represented a $2.4 billion increase
from the previous year’s appropriations,the new levels still came in almost $22
Mike Morones/Staff
President Obama’s FY2017 budget is delivered to the Senate Budget Committee on Feb. 9.
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NEWS 4AIR 6LAND 8NAVAL 10
INTERVIEW 22COMMENTARY 24LAST WORD 26
DEPARTMENTS
26
AIRNEW FUNDING PROFILE FOR F-35
REFLECTS DROP IN ACQUISITION 6LANDUS ARMY PIVOTS TO EUROPE AS
RUSSIAN AGGRESSION GROWS 8
NAVALUS NAVY ABSORBS 3.5% FUND-
ING DROP IN FISCAL 2017 10
FOCUSOCO FUNDING GROWING DEEP
ROOTS IN BUDGET PLANNING 18
WHAT’S INSIDE
10
Exclusive interview with Pentagon Comp-troller Mike McCord on the Obama admini-stration’s 2017 defense budget request,trade-offs, program decisions, future fund-ing levels, the overseas contingency opera-tions account, energy prices and more.
LAYING OUT THE DETAILS OF DOD’S2017 BUDGET PROCESS
WATCH DEFENSE NEWS WITH VAGO MURADIAN
Watch Sundays at 11 a.m. ET on WJLA-TV inWashington, on American Forces Networkworldwide or at defensenews.com.
New Royal Navy General Purpose Frigate
To Be Known as Type 31
The Type 31 program emerged as part of an
SDSR announcement cutting numbers of new
Type 26 anti-submarine warfare frigates to eight.
defensenews.com/naval
US Air Force Updates Long Range Strike-
Bomber Cost Estimate
Its FY17 budget submission updated the cost
estimate for the LRSB, reflecting a reduction in
planned funds for the program’s development.
defensenews.com/air-space
Oshkosh To Continue Joint Light Tactical
Vehicles Production During Lawsuit
The US Court of Federal Claims has denied
Lockheed Martin’s request to halt the company’s
work on its Humvee replacement.
defensenews.com/land
WHAT’S ONLINE
4 | defensenews.com R1 February 15, 2016Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
DUBAI and BRUSSELS — As theUnited States receives commitments
from Gulf Arab allies to contributemore to a coalition campaign in Syria,doubts remain because of their ongoing
military involvement in Yemen.Furthermore, statements by un-
named Saudi officials earlier this
month about a force of 150,000 – includ-ing troops from Gulf CooperationCouncil (GCC) partners Sudan, Egypt
and Jordan – being prepared to invadeSyria from Turkey have been rebuffedby at least two members of the anti-Is-
lamic State coalition.A Jordanian official confirmed the
country will not participate in any Turk-
ish- or Arab-led Syrian invasion unless
mandated by the United Nations, led byWestern forces and coordinated with
Russia.
“Jordan is not going to send groundforces into Syria unless these troops are
led by Americans and British,” the Jor-danian official said speaking on condi-tion of anonymity.
“We have very long borders with Iraq
and Syria which are more than 550 kilo-meters. Any ground troops, includingJordanian forces, should be sent after a
UN approval and after full coordinationwith Russia.”
On Feb. 9, a senior Kuwaiti official
told Reuters that despite Kuwait’s back-ing of international efforts against hard-line Islamist groups, the Gulf Arab
state’s constitution prevents it fromfighting in anything but defensive wars.
“Kuwait stands shoulder-to-shoulder
with our brothers in Saudi on all fronts.We are always ready and able to provide
what is needed to our Gulf partners
within the confines of our constitu-tion,” Sheikh Mohammad al-Mubarak
Al-Sabah, Kuwait’s minister for cabinet
affairs, told Reuters in Dubai.He indicated that support could be
limited to only intelligence-sharing and
the provision of establishments to helpthe coalition coordinate.
With respect to ground operations,
US Defense Secretary Ash Carter saidon Feb. 11 in Brussels that a variety ofoptions have been discussed with Arab
partners.“First of all, there is training of both
military forces and police forces. We
need forces on the ground that partici-
pate in training. Then enabling, includ-ing even accompanying partner forces.... We obviously talked about, but I’m
not going to talk about it here, specialforces that have some very special anddistinctive capabilities,” he said.
“We also talked about logistics sup-port, sustainment, rebuilding of a kindthat is going to have to go on in Ramadi.
So all of these are activities that coali-tion partners, to include Saudi Arabia,will participate in,” he added
Carter also said he does not think theSaudis want to fight a two-front war inSyria and Yemen, but that they do have
the capability and willingness to put theresources into the anti-Daesh fight.
According to National Defense Uni-
versity professor Paul Sullivan, SaudiArabia should be careful to not over-
stretch its military and diplomatic ef-
forts as Syria could be “quicksand” forthem.
“If Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other
GCC states do not get involved, a solu-tion to the Syria problem may only be atemporary one,” he said. “Many think
that the solution to ISIS has to comefrom Muslim soldiers, sailors and air-men. That may have some accuracy to
it. ... The really big question on Syria iswhether getting more militarily in-volved will help resolve those threats or
make them worse.” DN
Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty
Saudi Special Forces demonstrate their skills during a May graduation ceremony in Riyadh.
• Land and maritime radar modes, Automatic Identification System (AIS)
• 30+ hours endurance
• Operating radius > 1,000 nm
Predator XP
6 | defensenews.com February 15, 2016Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon hasunveiled a new funding profile for theF-35 joint strike fighter, reflecting a
drop in fighter jet acquisition over thenext six years across the US services,international partners and foreign cus-
tomers.Lockheed Martin and the F-35 joint
program office will build 20 fewer
planes over that timeframe for the USAir Force, Navy, Marine Corps, interna-tional partners and foreign customers,
JPO Chief Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan told re-porters during a Feb. 10 media round-table. Instead of building 893 fighter
jets from fiscal 2016 to FY21, as planned
last year, the government and industryteam will produce 873, he said.
Bogdan downplayed the impact of thedrop, saying the reduction will translateinto a unit cost increase for the US ser-
vices and international partners of lessthan 1 percent.
“I can tell you: The price difference
between 893 and 873 airplanes, I’m notsure I can even measure that,” Bogdansaid. “It’s ... way less than 1 percent in
overall price to everybody.”Bogdan’s math includes Canada’s
planned 65-aircraft purchase, although
new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau haspromised to pull out of the partnership.The 873 figure does not include any po-
tential new foreign military sales.The JPO will also generate savings
with a planned bulk purchase of the air-
plane, or “block buy,” beginning inFY19, Bogdan said. The Pentagon’s lat-est budget request reflects a decision
not to include advanced funding inFY17 for a multiyear F-35 buy to start asplanned in FY18, but the department
does allot money in FY18 for a blockbuy to start in FY19, Bogdan said.
The deal would cover FY19 through
FY21and is expected to save over $2 bil-lion in total, he stressed.
International partners and foreign
customers can choose to move forwardwith a block buy starting as soon asFY18 without US participation, Bogdan
said. The Pentagon can then choose to
opt in to the deal in later years. The changes to the F-35 blueprint re-
flected in the Pentagon’s FY17 budget
rollout Feb. 9 sent observers scurryingto calculate the implications for the in-
ternational program. Each of the US services saw changes
in its F-35 buy over the five-year de-
fense plan, but the net change for theJPO and Lockheed Martin was not im-mediately clear.
For the Pentagon, not including inter-national partners or foreign customers,the total F-35 buy across the Future
Years Defense Program (FYDP) has de-
creased 8 percent, from 436 to 404,spokesman Mark Wright wrote in a Feb.
10 email. This includes the Air Force’s
reduction of 45 F-35As and the Navy’snet increase of 13 F-35Bs and F-35Cs.
The Defense Department’s total
planned buy has not changed, Wrightstressed.
“The total planned buy for the depart-
ment has not changed but the new pro-files ensure the department pursues themost cost-effective way to field fifth-
generation fighters,” Wright said.For the Air Force at least, the change
reflects a deceleration of the planned
ramp up in production to 60 aircraft a
year starting in FY18. The FY17 fundingprofile shows the service will not get to
that rate until FY21.However, since all models US and in-
ternational models are built on the
same line in Fort Worth, Texas, thereshould be no significant changes to pro-duction, said Lockheed spokesman
Mike Rein. Lockheed is preparing toramp up production to more than 150airplanes per year in the early 2020s.
Air Force Secretary Deborah LeeJames echoed Bogdan’s and Lock-heed’s statements during a Feb. 10 hear-
ing before the Senate Appropriations’Defense subcommittee, stressing thatdespite the aircraft deferred across the
FYDP, the F-35 unit cost will not changesubstantially.
“Because there are FMS purchases in
the works and other services are buyingF-35s, we believe that this will allow usto still have a stable unit price,” James
said. Pentagon Comptroller Mike McCord
took a different tone, however. Al-
though the reduction to 404 total AirForce, Navy and Marine Corps F-35s
over the next five years is not expected
to produce a significant change in theunit cost, it is not clear the Pentagonwill be able to get back to the planned
production rate, he said.“We are trying to get it back up to
where we want it to be across the
FYDP,” McCord said Feb. 9 at the Penta-gon, referring to the Future Years De-fense Program. “But it’s just a lot of
money too, and it’s unclear that we will
be able to get this program back to theramps that we had hoped for previous-
ly.” DN
JSF PRODUCTION
F-35 Production To DropBy 20; Air Force OfficialsDownplay Price Impact
Samuel King Jr.
Senior Airman Herbert Tucker, 33rd Aircraft Maintenance Squadron, marshals in anF-35A Lightning II for a hot pit refueling session at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla.
“I can tell you: Theprice differencebetween 893 and 873airplanes, I’m notsure I can evenmeasure that.”Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan
F-35 JPO chief
Air Force FY17 Budget Request:
n Topline is $166.9 billion: $46.9 billionfor O&M; $22.4B for procurement; $19.6Bfor RDT&E; $12.3B for OCO
Fully funds Long Range Strike-Bomberand KC-46 tanker n Defers five F-35As, a total of 45
aircraft over five years n Postpones retirement of A-10 Wart-
hog fleet and EC-130 Compass Call fleet n Moves forward with Joint Surveil-
lance Target Attack Radar System recap-italization, Combat Rescue Helicopter, T-Xadvanced trainer replacement, Air ForceOne recapitalization n Slows procurement of C-130Js,
deferring three aircraft in FY17 and a totalof eight aircraft over three years n Delays upgrades to some fourth-
generation aircraft, for example the F-16missile warning and radio systems n Restocks munitions expended in the
fight against the Islamic State, requestingfunds through OCO for Joint Direct At-tack Munitions, AGM-114 Hellfires, andSmall Diameter Bombs n Maintains plan to divest U-2 in FY19 n Adds 24 unmanned MQ-9A Reapers
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oshkoshdefense.com/jltv
8 | defensenews.com February 15, 2016Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
WASHINGTON — For years, the USadministration has cast a longing gazeon a pivot to the Asia Pacific but wars in
the Middle East have managed to divertattention.
And now Russia has re-emerged as
the number one threat to the US. So ifthere’s a pivot happening anywhere it’sto Europe, and it’s clear the Army will
lead.President Obama’s last budget re-
quest more than quadrupled the
amount of overseas contingency opera-tions (OCO) money funneled into whatis being called the European Reassur-
ance Initiative (ERI).The $3.4 billion in fiscal 2017 funding
is part of an effort to deter Russia’s mil-
itary aggression in Eastern Europe andto bolster allies’ defense capabilities.
And it’s clear that the majority of
those dollars — $2.8 billion of it — areArmy green.
The majority of the Army’s OCO boost
in the budget is due to ERI, Maj. Gen.Thomas Horlander, the Army’s budgetdirector, said.
Prior to 2014, before Russia annexedCrimea and invaded Ukraine, it would
have been hard to imagine seeing a re-
newed Cold War-like posture in Europe.“I never thought I’d see a land war in
Europe again but when I went to Uk-
raine you saw it,” Maj. Gen. Walter Piatt,director of operations, readiness andmobilization in the Army G-3, said.
Army personnel has declined inEurope from roughly 200,000 during the1980s to around 33,000 in 2015, accord-
ing to a Center for Strategic and Inter-national Studies report, released thismonth, evaluating future Army force
posture in Europe. The US had twoArmy Corps with heavy armored forcesduring the Cold War.
Now the Army has only two perma-nently stationed brigade combat teams,has closed over 100 sites since 2006 and
is now concentrated in Italy and Ger-many, not near NATO’s eastern flank,the report notes.
A defense official speaking to De-fense News prior to the budget releaserecalled iconic photos of tanks coming
out of Europe and noted now therewould soon be photos of tanks comingback in.
Retired Adm. James Stavridis, whoserved both as the commander ofNATO and US European Command,
painted a picture of the European di-lemma during a recent House ArmedServices Committee hearing.
The Russians are conducting militaryoperations with “cleverness,” he said.“Some have called this hybrid warfare.
It’s a mix of special forces; informationwarfare; cyber ... and this element ofsurprise, building real ambiguity into
their maneuvers.”
But what is even more worrying, Eve-lyn Farkas, former deputy assistant sec-
retary of defense for Russia, Ukraine
and Eurasia, said, is Russian militarydoctrine that permits the country to re-
spond to a conventional attack with nu-clear weapons — from an arsenal thathas already outpaced the US’ aging one.
Part of the solution is to ramp up theUS military’s presence in Europe to del-icately deter Russia’s aggression in
countries along its border.That is where the US Army comes in.
In fiscal 2017, $727 million will go to-
ward “increased presence.”
It’s not just about parading tanks
around the streets of European towns;$50 million will fund building “partnercapacity.” A total of $89 million will ex-
pand the scope of 28 joint and multina-tional exercises annually.
The biggest chunk of funding — $2
billion — is for putting a “heel-to-toe”armored brigade combat team (ABCT)in theater 24/7 on a rotational basis on
top of the Stryker brigade and infantrybrigade already in Europe. The fundingwill also cover more aviation in theater.
A total of $1.8 billion of the ERI fund-ing will pay for prepositioned equip-ment to include an entire ABCT static
set of equipment, Horlander said. The Army has already established an
“activity set” — separate sets of equip-
ment outside of prepositioned stocks
— that builds out a brigade combatteam.
The countries that will see continu-
ous rotations are, thus far, Bulgaria, Ro-mania, Poland and the Baltics, a senior
defense official said in Brussels.However, prepositioned stock will
likely be stored in facilities in countries
like Germany because the infrastruc-ture, dating back to the Cold War, is al-ready there.
The Army is looking at rotations be-ginning on Oct. 1. Another unit will ar-rive in April 2017. The service is still
identifying what unit will deploy first, a
senior military official in Brussels said.
Army officials are still working outwhich ABCT might go to Europe andwhether rotations will be nine months
or shorter, Piatt said.The service is also speeding up its
plans to increase the lethality of its
Stryker armored personnel carriers, anurgent requirement coming straight outof Europe.
The $2.8 billion in ERI is just the be-ginning, a defense official said. “Whatyou are seeing is just a down-payment
for the US commitment to securingEurope and getting back in.”
More is bound to come in fiscal 2018
to bolster the Army’s European pres-ence.
For example, the official said, while
not in the fiscal 2017 budget, the Ar-mored Multi-Purpose Vehicle that BAESystems is building for the Army could
see procurement accelerate in the fis-cal 2018 budget through OCO dollars inorder to get more modernized equip-
ment to Europe.
The Army will also work to enhanceinteroperability among allies, being
able to talk and share information on
the move, according to Piatt.Another gap in capability, Farkas ob-
served, is the lack of intelligence, sur-veillance and reconnaissance. “Weneed more ISR for the US European
Command.” DN
FOCUS ON EUROPE
US Army Pivots to EuropeAs Russian Threat GrowsAsia-Pacific PlansTake Back SeatBY JEN JUDSON [email protected]
Soldiers of the US Army's 3rd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment meet with localresidents upon arrival during the "Dragoon Ride" exercise in Vilnius, Lithuania, onMarch 22, 2015. The Dragoon Ride practices moving manpower and heavy vehicles.
During the Cold War of the1980s, the US Army had about200,000 personnel stationed inEurope. Following years ofdrawdowns, that figure fell toabout 33,000,with more than 100sites closed and forces concen-trated in only two countries. Butsince Russia annexed Crimeaand invaded Ukraine, and hasadopted an aggressive policyelsewhere in Europe, the pat-tern of reversed.
BACKGROUND
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Under the Navy’s funding plan,procurement of the SM-6 ballisticmissile defense missile continuesat 125 weapons per year; annualbuys of AMRAAM increase be-tween nine and 22 weapons peryear through 2020; and purchasesof the AGM-88 Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile drop by43 weapons in 2017, 20 in 2018, 114in 2019 and 163 in 2020.
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12 | defensenews.com February 15, 2016Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
fellow and coordinator of the MilitaryTransformations Program at Singa-
pore’s Rajaratnam School of Interna-tional Studies.
China’s traditional numerical superi-
ority is increasingly complemented byat least near technical equivalence withits main regional rivals, said Douglas
Barrie, senior fellow for military aero-space at the International Institute forStrategic Studies, London.
“The Chengdu J-10 and Shenyang J-11
and the Russian Su-35 will provide thebasis of a capable fighter combat in-
ventory in the 2020s,” he said.
“Top tier air forces will face chal-lenges and choices in balancing invest-
ing in platforms able to be operated inhighly contested air space or increas-ingly relying on stand off weapons and
systems,” Barrie said.
Regional responses to China’s belli-
cose behavior and North Korea’s errat-ic threats to develop missiles andnuclear weapons include midlife up-
grades to F-16 fighter aircraft in SouthKorea, Taiwan and Singapore, the de-velopment of new indigenous fighter
aircraft, such as Korea’s KF-X program
and Japan’s stealth X-2 Shinshin fight-er, and upgrades of indigenous fighters,
such as Taiwan’s Indigenous DefenseFighter.
Bitzinger said that some countries
are naturally worried that a more mod-ernized Chinese Air Force, especially
its missile forces, could severely dam-
age air bases or destroy them. This hasled to requirements for short takeoff/
vertical landing aircraft such as the
F-35B fighter, refurbished AV-8 Harri-ers and V-22 Osprey transports.
The F-35B is now being procured by
Australia, Japan and South Korea, withexpected purchase by Singapore in the
TAIWAN — China’s military modern-
ization effort continues to drive de-fense procurement in Asia as Beijing
A Chinese People's Liberation Army AirForce KJ-2000 airborne early warningand control aircraft, left, flies withChengdu J-10 fighter aircraft during amilitary parade at Tiananmen Square onSept. 3, 2015.
ASIA-PACIFIC
SEE CHINA PAGE 15
Some airshow officials estimatethat Asia-Pacific defense budgetswill reach about $612 billion by2018, and that more emphasis isgoing toward military procurementand research and development.
Aircraft expected expected toattend this year’s airshow includethe F-22 Raptor, Singapore’s F-16and F-15SG fighters, AH-64DApache helicopters, the DassaultRafale fighter, the Su-30MKMfighter, Airbus A400M and the V-22Osprey.
BACKGROUND
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But misperceptions can.
not-too-distant future. Taiwan has alsorequested the F-35B, but for political
reasons related to Beijing’s lobbying ef-forts in Washington this might be im-possible.
The US denied Taipei’s procurementrequests for Block 50/52 F-16C/D fight-ers to replace aging Mirage 2000 and
F-5 fighters, and analysts doubt Wash-ington would anger China by releasinga more advanced fifth-generation
stealth fighter, like the F-35. Instead,US government sources indicate Tai-wan will be offered refurbished AV-8
Harrier jump jets to fulfill the verticalrequirement.
The vertical requirement in all four
countries is in response to China’sgrowing arsenal of ballistic and cruisemissiles. In the Taiwan scenario, China
has allocated about 1,400 short-rangeballistic missiles to pulverize air bases,destroy command-and-control nodes,
and eliminate ground-based air defensebatteries. The only option to maintain acredible air power deterrence is pro-
curement of either the F-35B or refur-bished AV-8s, which can be hiddeninside Taiwan’s mountainous interior.
China’s threat to offshore islands hasalso created an interest in vertical land-ing aircraft capable of transporting
troops and supplies long-distances athigh speeds. The tiltrotor Bell/BoeingV-22 Osprey is on order by the Japanese
military and South Korea and Singa-pore have expressed interest. The Os-prey will be on display at the Singapore
Airshow, Feb. 16-21.The ballistic missile threats from not
just China, but North Korea, have ex-
panded interest in ground-based air de-fense missile systems, including theTerminal High Altitude Area Defense
(THAAD) system for South Korea andnew Patriot Advanced Capability-3(PAC-3) batteries for Japan and Tai-
wan.Taiwan recently installed an ad-
vanced long-range early warning radar
along its west coast that can peer deep-ly into China’s interior and monitor not
only missiles but fighter aircraft activ-
ity. Japan has been beefing up its signalintelligence (SIGINT) and radar facili-ties along the Ryukyu Island chain.
Taiwan has one of the most advancedSIGINT networks in the world, with ajoint US National Security Agency
(NSA) and Taiwan National SecurityBureau (NSB) high-frequency/direc-tion finding antenna facility on Yang-
mingshan Mountain, just north ofTaipei, and NSB antenna farms in Lin-kou in the north and Betel Nut Village in
the south.
A retired US NSA source whoworked at Pingtun Li said the US gath-ers about 70 percent of its signal intelli-
gence on China from Taiwan facilities.Airshow officials have indicated that
by 2018, defense budgets across the
Asia-Pacific are expected to grow bymore than 19 percent to about $612 bil-lion. DN
ASIA-PACIFICCHINA FROM PAGE 12
16 | defensenews.com February 15, 2016Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
Special Report
the dead-end nature of the costly F-2program, ASDF’s most likely scenario
will be some additional F-35s and moreF-15 upgrades. Japan might even con-sider buying more up-to-date F-15s, but
given the funding priority of the first 42F-35s, cash for more F-15s is unlikely tobe provided, he said.
“One thing’s certain: The F-15 fleetwill be the most important JASDF com-ponent for decades to come. In terms of
range and payload the F-15s are hugely
important, and upgrading them will be avery high priority. They’re synergistic
with the F-35s. Upgrading the F-2 fleetis somewhat tertiary in terms of priori-ties,” Aboulafia said.
“Japan has made a significant invest-ment in F-35, as they should have. But
they can’t afford to have substantially
more F-35s delivered any sooner … and… the F-2s are important only in keep-
ing the Japanese defense industrial
base relatively proficient in basic de-sign and manufacturing,” said StevenGanyard, president, Avascent Interna-
tional. Ganyard also suggested an F-15 up-
grade strategy was the most logical sce-
nario, since the ASDF’s F-15s have
TOKYO — Critics have raised con-cerns that Japan’s Air Self-DefenseForce (ASDF) could find itself with
only a modest number of fifth-genera-tion aircraft backed by obsolescingfourth-generation planes, based around
the F-2 and F-15s, that lack interopera-bility.
For example, at present funding lev-
els, the ASDF can only procure 42 F-35sat a rate of a handful a year, meanwhile
diverting scarce resources to update its
legacy fleet. This year, the ASDF canonly afford to buy six F-35s while up-
grading 11 F-2s with modern digital
communications systems. The recent ballyhooed unveiling of
the putative fifth-generation X-2 Shin-
shin stealth fighter demonstrator andthe future availability of the short take-off/vertical landing F-35B on Japan’s
carrier-convertible DDH Izumo-classhelicopter carrier seem to offer theASDF some pathways to building a
more effective force. But do they?Richard Aboulafia, vice president,
analysis, at the Teal Group suggested
that given budget constraints, costs and
substantial life left but desperatelyneed to be upgraded.
“The threat to Japan is not Chinesefighters. It’s thousands of cruise andballistic missiles that could easily cut
off all Japan south of Kyushu. This mostimportant reason to have both F-35sand upgraded F-15s with AESA radars is
the cruise missile threat of low flying,low [radar cross section] missile salvosthat could quickly become overwhelm-
ing,” Ganyard said.In this light, a joint Japan-US upgrade
program would share development
costs, reduce risk and increase interop-erability. The result would be the kind
of air force that the US, Israel, Australia
and Singapore will have – a mix of air-craft and integrated operations withboth fifth-generation and 4+ generation
fighters, Ganyard said. The deeper problem, analysts agree,
is that Japan needs to pull back from
funding aircraft that are not interna-tionally competitive, such as the F-2,the C-2 and the P-1, and refocus its strat-
egy and R&D resources on a few worldclass products and buy what it isn’t ableto build.
This makes the Shinshin look increas-
ingly like a redundant bauble, analystssaid.
“Could Shinshin be developed as a
poor man’s stealth fighter that, say,Europe and/or the US might be interest-ed in co-developing and India, Aus-
tralia, et al might be interested inbuying? That would certainly cut unitcosts. I have no idea what the upside for
Shinshin is, though,” said Jun Okumura,visiting scholar at the Meiji Institute forGlobal Affairs, and a former official of
the Ministry of Economy, Trade and In-dustry, which supports domestic weap-ons platform development.
Spending on Shinshin would take bil-lions of dollars away from force en-hancement and replacement and put it
toward development of an unknownairframe, said Aboulafia.
“It would represent the triumph of na-
tional technology development andprestige over actual military needs,” hesaid.
“Japan should not develop a poorman’s anything. It wastes money andonly makes the country more vulnera-
ble,” Ganyard said. Speculation bubbled up a few years
back that Japan might consider acquir-
ing the F-35B when it was revealed, forexample, that the DDH Izumo-class he-licopter destroyers come equipped
with F-35B compatible elevators. “The F35B is a luxury item that I can’t
see the ASDF going for. ... So, unless
you really want to project your navalpower to the South China Sea and be-yond, or the Japan-US alliance breaks
down, I would forget about it,” Okum-ura said.
Aboulafia agreed, saying that fixed-
wing carrier aviation sounds appealing
from a force projection and regionalpresence standpoint, but that it was ba-
sically unaffordable for Japan. But Ganyard said the opportunity pre-
sented by the US Navy’s Ford-class car-
rier with its electro-magnetic aircraftlaunch systems (EMALS) has shifted
thinking away from the F-35B.
“Without much challenge Japan’s cur-rent DDH could be fitted with EMALS
and its associated arresting gear. Add
an angled deck, a bit more length and
displacement, and the JMSDF is back inthe fixed-wing aviation business,” Ga-
nyard said. DN
Japan Air Self-Defense Force
Upgrades to F-15s will play oneimportant part in Japan's efforts to boostits air power as it faces touch decisionson how to distribute limited resources.
BUDGET DILEMMA
Japan Faces Challenging ChoicesFor Cash-Strapped Air ForceBY PAUL [email protected]
Defense News is reporting live from the 2016 Singapore Airshow.
Follow along for breaking developments directly from the event.
COMPLETE
COVERAGEDefenseNews.com/singapore-air-show
Sponsored by
Digital Show Daily: Singapore Airshow
18 | defensenews.com R1 February 15, 2016Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
cases,” he added.Israel is the largest recipient of US se-
curity assistance, taking in about 55 per-cent of the State Department’s ForeignMilitary Financing (FMF) budget
worldwide. US aid accounts for about25 percent of Israel’s overall defensebudget.
In recent years, congressional plus-ups for Israeli aid have exceeded thepresident’s budget request by much
more than 100 percent. US sources cal-culated that since the start of the cur-rent 10-year agreement in fiscal year
the multiyear planning required by thebase budget, and because its exceptionfrom budget caps last year proved a
useful part of the formula for cutting ahard-fought budget deal.
“We’re absolutely hooked on OCO,”
said Todd Harrison, a senior fellow atthe Center for Strategic and Interna-tional Studies. “It’s not just DoD, it’s
Congress as well. It’s a convenient wayto get around budget caps and forge abudget deal that adds money for de-
fense and non-defense. For that reason,as long as we have the budget caps,we’ll have OCO.”
Supplementals date back to WorldWar II, and every year since the US
launched military operations in Afghan-
istan in response to the Sept. 11 attacks,Congress has appropriated separate
war funds. Though initially intended for
unanticipated emergency costs, their
Mike Morones/staff
President Obama's FY2017 budget is delivered to the Senate Budget Committee Feb. 9in Washington.
‘We’re Absolutely Hooked on OCO’Wartime Spending AccountAppears Here To StayBY JOE [email protected]
WARTIME FUNDING
Overseas contingency operationsfunding in the 2017 account in-cludes $41.7 billion for operationsin Afghanistan, $7.5 billion foranti-Islamic State group efforts,$3.4 billion for the European Reas-surance Initiative and $1 billion forthe Counterterrorism PartnershipsFund
BACKGROUND
February 15, 2016 defensenews.com | 21Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
countries — Poland, Romania and Den-mark — have stepped up their commit-ments this week, either for kinetic
strikes or training missions, a senior de-fense official said.
On Feb. 12, the United Arab Emirates
also pledged to restart participation inthe air campaign against ISIL, Cartersaid. On the same day, diplomats in Ger-
many — including top American andRussian officials — announced thegroundwork for a potential ceasefire in
Syria’s five-year civil war.Carter also highlighted a “significant
development” — that NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg and he are ex-ploring the possibility that NATO couldjoin the anti-ISIS coalition as an active
participant.
“NATO as a new member would bringunique capabilities that could be
brought to bear against ISIL, including
experience in building partner capacity,training ground forces and providing
stabilization support.”Leading up to the meeting, Pentagon
officials, including Carter, emphasized
that US is looking for countries to con-
BRUSSELS — US Secretary of De-
fense Ash Carter left a three-day trip toNATO with new commitments to helpin the fight against the Islamic State
group, but questions remains abouthow successful the campaign can be ifRussia remains active in Syria.
Carter traveled to Brussels for a two-
part business trip. First, he took part inthe NATO ministerial, with a major fo-
cus on fiscal reassurance for Europeanpartners from the Pentagon’s budget re-quest. But the centerpiece of the event
was day two, when Carter hosted ameeting of 27 other defense ministers
whose nations participate in the coali-
tion against the terrorist group, com-monly known as ISIS or ISIL.
The big fish for Carter: a commitment
from Saudi Arabia to increase its kinet-ic airstrikes inside Syria, as well as con-sideration of Saudi troops on the
ground, potentially giving the Sunniground force publicly called for byPresident Barack Obama.
In addition to Saudi Arabia, three
tribute in ways beyond military assis-tance, such as training police orproviding funding for the Iraqi govern-
ment. The latter is increasingly impor-tant, with the US State Departmentestimating Iraq faces a monthly financ-
ing gap of $5.3 billion.Emma Ashford, an analyst with the
Washington-based CATO Institute, says
emphasizing non-military contribu-tions is an easy way to increase partici-
pation from partner nations.
“It’s easier for most states to committo this kind of help, which doesn’t re-
quire parliamentary approval or even
much popular support,” she said. “Andsome aspects of the non-military cam-paign, like humanitarian aid and help
with counterterrorist financing, arereally important aspects of the overallstrategy.”
But Ashford also raises concerns thatcountries may now have less incentiveto contribute militarily.
“Carter may say he wants to ‘acceler-ate’ the campaign against ISIS, but it’snot clear how to do that without more
actual military contributions on the
ground from regional governments,”
she said.
The Russian ChallengeAccording to the senior defense offi-
cial, the partners in Brussels were all onboard with the strategic plan outlined
by the US, with one caveat – concernsover Russia’s continued presence inSyria.
“One thing that was striking was criti-cism of Russia. Several ministers saidthe coalition need to be more vocal in
its criticism of Russia,” the official said.“They all acknowledged it’s a very com-plicated situation in Syria, that arguably
there has been more progress in Iraq,and Syria will remain arguably the more
challenge of the two. But the criticismof Russia was widespread and that wasa consistent theme.”
Evelyn Farkus, who served as deputyassistant secretary of defense for Rus-sia, Ukraine and Eurasia from 2012 until
November, agrees Russia remains ahuge challenge to solving the Syrian sit-uation.
Ahead of Carter’s trip, Farkus advo-cated leveraging a “whole of govern-ment approach” toward the Kremlin,
including increasing already-imposedsanctions on the government of Rus-sian President Vladimir Putin.
“In context of the Syria problem, wecould actually think about applyingsanctions to Russia that we would coor-
dinate with our Middle Eastern alliesand Europe,” she said. “It’s somethingthat should be seriously considered.”
“We’re not going to convince Russia ifthey’re winning on the battlefield,” sheadded. “So what can we do to change
the dynamic? Maybe we can changewhat’s happening on the battlefield, butin addition we should be considering
other things we can do to increase our
leverage vis-a-vis Russia.Carter, for his part, said Russia is con-
tributing to a “very cruel movement of a
large number of people in Syria.”During the NATO ministerial, Stolten-
berg pledged Standing Maritime Group2 to the Aegean Sea, primarily to con-duct surveillance of refugees and alert
local authorities, although Supreme Al-lied Commander Europe Gen. PhilipBreedlove indicated the mission pa-
rameters could change. Breedlove alsoconfirmed that "several" nations haveagreed to add ships, but would not iden-
tify which ones. DN
Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz
Secretary of Defense Ash Carter speaksFeb. 11 during a counter-ISIL meeting atNATO headquarters in Brussels,Belgium.
NATO SUMMIT
Brussels Trip Lands Anti-ISIS Help,But Russia Remains a ChallengeBY AARON [email protected]
THE LATEST ON US DEFENSEFollow Staff Reporter
Aaron Mehta @AaronMehta
22 | defensenews.com February 15, 2016Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
Some critics on Capitol Hill andelsewhere view this as an irrele-vant budget: It just comes in onthe costs, DoD won’t get every-thing it wants, and the next rele-vant budget will be in May 2017,after a new administration sub-mits its budget. How would youmake the case that this is rele-vant? Does it contain, in yourview, major muscle movements orinitiatives that you think willoutlast this administration?
I think it does. If I would list themajor move, I think it’s with respect to
Russia, and that’s within the secre-tary’s framework of trying to reallyhave us reorient a little bit so that
we’re thinking across the spectrumfrom now to 20 years from now. Hereand now is the fight against ISIL, of
course, and the Taliban in Afghanistan.But he’s really trying to focus us aswell on the higher-end, peer and near-
peer competitors, that’s Russia andChina, as well as Iran and North Ko-rea. I think that what we’re doing in
Europe, in particular, on this so-calledEuropean Reassurance Initiative, isprobably the biggest muscle move in
my mind in this budget. But it’s alsothe mental framing to think about thehigh-end competitors as well as the
here and now. But to think ahead isreally where I think Secretary Carter istrying to push us, and to think across
the spectrum of time, geography andall the domains now: air, sea, land, tothink about space as a contested envi-
ronment, to think about cyberspace asa contested environment.
For many observers, the biggestloser was acquisition programs,with a 7 percent decrease be-tween ’16 and ’17. There is a con-cern that by continually cuttingand deferring programs, the ad-ministration is causing a bowwave that will come due around2020, 2025, when the nation maynot have the money because ofdebt reduction and demographictrends. Are you potentially dan-gerously delaying modernization,but also creating a bow wave thatmay simply be too big to addressin the future?
There was a pre-existing nuclearmodernization bow wave that is com-
ing throughout the decade of the ‘20s
and the first half of the ‘30s as we buythe replacement for the Trident sub-marine, one at a time over a period of
a dozen years or so, as well as theother two legs [of the nuclear triad].
That challenge is before us, it’s some-
thing that we’ve been working hard,the deputy secretary in particular has
been working very hard trying to make
sure people understand it and startexploring different ways that we cansolve it. More resources, of course,
would be our top solution to solve it,because we look back at what wasdone historically in what he calls the
first and second waves, of the early1960s and mid-‘80s when the triad wasrecapitalized to some extent, it didn’t
come at the expense of the conven-tional force. That’s what our ideal is,but the fiscal situation in the ‘20s and
‘30s with the baby boomers in full
retirement mode is going to be a chal-lenge for sure.
In the near term, though, balance is
something that’s almost inherent inbudgeting. On the Air Force side, werebalance slightly toward the capacity
side, on the Navy side, slightly toward
the capability side. Historically whenthere are budget gyrations up or down,
acquisition accounts, procurement in
particular, are the most volatile. Thebudget deal that we got was a deal for
fiscal ‘16 and fiscal ‘17. That deal gaveus zero guidance about what’s going tohappen after this, in ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21 and
then on into the future. We know thatthe Budget Control Act caps are stillthe law in ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21. This depart-
ment has been very consistent that wecan’t live with those caps, we don’tsupport living with those caps.
Then you get a short-term signal in
the budget deal that you’re going to getless money, you’re going to get much
of what you want but not all. How doyou react to that? Compensation isreally not a good short-term lever. You
certainly wouldn’t give people a paycut.
In fact, you have a pay increasein the budget.
Yes, we have a pay raise. So that
lever is really not available to us toreduce compensation unless we weregoing to reduce the size of the force.
Size of the force is really the biggestlever that there is. If you have a small-er force, then you need less facilities,
you have less people to pay, you needless health care, you need less riflesand ammunition and aircraft. But
when you have a short-term signal thatyour budget is going to be adjusted 3percent down, as it was in this deal in
‘17, with no information about wherethe future is going, that’s not a propi-tious time to make the force smaller
permanently. Making the force smalleris a big muscle move, it’s a hard mus-cle move, it’s a slow one. I wouldn’t
say it’s a step of last resort, but it’s avery difficult step to do. So where thattends to leave you is you go to the
acquisition accounts. They are more
adjustable in a short-term, one- ortwo-year change in supply of money.
It’s not unusual if you look at history
to say that procurement is my short-term shock absorber.
How did you decide how muchto take from each of the servicesto make up for an almost $22billion shortfall?
The primary way we look at our
program and how to adjust it is whatwe call portfolios, so things like space,ISR, ground forces, tactical air forces,
not so much that each service is going
Mike Morones/Staff
Mike McCordLast week, the Pentagon unveiled its $582.7 billion budget request for fiscal
2017. This marked the second time Mike McCord has overseen the prep-
aration of the DoD’s budget since he became comptroller in June 2014. He
previously served five years as the comptroller’s principal deputy and more
than two decades with the Senate Armed Services Committee as a staffer
for former Sens. Sam Nunn and Carl Levin. While the 2015 Bipartisan Bud-
get Act provided an assured top line figure, McCord and his staff still found
themselves scrambling to cut more than $20 billion from the budget in just
six weeks. Here, he explains how the DoD’s “portfolios” are adjusted.
Pentagon Comptroller
n Pentagon’s 2017 basebudget request: $523.9billionn Overseas contingency
operations budget request:$58.8 billionn Total active duty end
strength for FY 2017:1,281,900
to get a bill, although that is one of thetools that we use. But it’s primarily,where do we think that we have too
much risk or that we have an invest-ment in what sort of fields of endeavorcould an investment really make a
difference.
Some in the department havereferred to the F-35 as the “piggybank,” with reductions to annualbuys freeing funds for other uses.But volume is vital to the pro-gram. Is there a danger that thedepartment is destabilizing itslargest program by keepingplanes around like the A-10, con-tinuing to buy F-18s instead ofmoving to this new-generationairplane?
I wouldn’t say there’s no risk. I don’t
personally worry that this is going toend up like the B-2 did where thequantity drops to such a small number
that the unit price spikes up and peo-ple aren’t willing to buy it anymore. Ido think there’s some risk of that, and
obviously in this program what we dois a key driver. What our partners do isalso relevant. The analysis that our
acquisitions folks did was that thequantity changes in this budget werenot going to materially affect the unit
cost. So we didn’t see ourselves askicking off a bad spiral in terms of unitprice, but it’s not where we wanted it
to be.
Can you give us a rough sense ofhow much of the department’stotal resources are going tothings that could be character-ized as either major innovationinitiatives or third offset initia-tives?
The amount of resources that we’retalking about in the FY17 budget is onthe order of $3.5 billion, so kind of in
the 1 percent of our budget range. It’snot enormous in terms of funding. Oneof the points that the secretary has
tried to make to us is innovation, in hismind, is not just about money. It’s alsoabout the way you think. What he likes
about the Strategic Capabilities Officeis they imagine ways to take a weaponyou already have and use it differently.
It doesn’t necessarily take a lot of
money to do that if you have someclever adaptations of things you al-
ready have. So third offset, and in-
novation writ large, the primary yard-stick is not necessarily money. The
import is a combination of the moneybut also the mindset.
By Vago Muradian in Washington
February 15, 2016 defensenews.com | 23Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
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DefenseNews
After years of pushing around itsneighbors and even bullying its
trade partners, the comingmonths already appear to hold a seriesof major setbacks for China that could
prove regionally destabilizing. In late May, the Permanent Court of
Arbitration in The Hague will rule on a
suit by the Philippines that contestsChina’s sweeping claims to the SouthChina Sea. Manila filed suit after China
seized Scarborough Shoal, some 100miles from the Philippine coast.
The court has already rejected Bei-
jing’s stance that the issue is an in-ternal Chinese matter. Experts expectthe court will invalidate China’s so-
called “nine-dash-line” that is basis forthe country’s territorial claims and rulethat Beijing’s man-made islands are
illegal.While such a ruling will be well-
received by all the nations on the
receiving end of China’s bullying, it isunlikely Beijing will accept the deci-sion.
Making matters worse for China,Taiwan’s new pro-independence leaderis making it clear that unlike her pred-
ecessor, she’s not going to keep cozy-ing up to Beijing.
Hong Kong is again in an uproar
over Beijing’s anti-democracy moveslike the kidnapping of local booksell-
ers. Then there are the (tough) newly
proposed US sanctions on Chinese
companies that have been helpingadvance North Korea’s nuclear andmissile programs, as well as a new
trade bill that would make it easier forWashington to punish China for itseconomic transgressions.
Plus, US officials have made it clearthat freedom of navigation operationsthat challenge China’s claims to the
region will increase. Beijing must notbe allowed to unilaterally changeinternational norms.
Meanwhile, China’s actions haveprompted the Philippines to welcomeAmerican forces back to the country
and increase capabilities. South Koreawants advanced US missile defenses todefend against the weapons Pyong-
yang has developed with Chinese help.Against this backdrop, it’s vital Wash-
ington do all it can to back its allies —
without encouraging reckless action.That’s why statements from top US
officials like Deputy National Security
Adviser Ben Rhodes are so unhelpful.On the eve of the latest ASEAN meet-ing, Rhodes placed cooperation with
China ahead of holding Beijing ac-countable for bellicose behavior that
has brought the region togetheragainst Chinese bullying.
Statements like that worry US allies
who wonder whether Washingtonplaces cooperation and climate talkswith Beijing ahead of supporting allies
and friends in Asia who are on thereceiving end of incessant Chineseintimidation.
That bullying is going to get worse asChina increasingly uses irregularmeans to press forward its claims and
confound its adversaries.Beijing has invested heavily in ex-
panding its Coast Guard that now
includes ships — including five 12,500-ton cutters — designed to sink enemyships by ramming. It also has 670,000
fishing vessels that will swarm poten-tial adversaries, creating a problemthat’s not easily solved.
It’s vital that Washington engage withregional leaders to map out strategieshow best to handle a future when
tensions will be escalating. That meansbringing allies together to collectivelyimprove capabilities, particularly in
maritime domain awareness, sea andair power, but also economic and legaltools to deter China.
Prepare for a Busy Year in Asia
Even before the Obama admini-stration submitted its defense
budget request to Congress,Republican members claimed creditfor increasing defense spending while
simultaneously blasting the requestfor not being robust enough.
Both are disingenuous statements.
First, the amount the administrationcan spend is dictated by the two-yeardeal inked in December that averted
another fiscal battle. The Republicans
were party to that deal.Second, the administration has often
asked for more money than allowed
under spending caps, and sometimesmore than GOP lawmakers have ap-
propriated.The administration kept within
budget limits this year by cutting $20
billion from its planned 2017 budget.
But the White House unrealistically isplanning to get $20 billion to $30 bil-
lion more for defense in coming years.
The administration argues that givenfunding uncertainty each year, it's
being prudent in budgeting for what itneeds.
Perhaps, but the reality is, the Penta-
gon is forced to make last-minute cutseach year to bring overly rosy plans
within budgetary reality. Such games-
manship may be understandable, butalso makes fiscal problems worse as
plans are continually changed while
the budget is in execution.Every budget is about trade-offs.
This one rightly sought to balance
modernization, improve readiness andkeep from further shrinking the force,while also investing in nuclear mod-
ernization and future programs.
But it also continues to defer pro-grams into the future, where they arebuilding into a bow wave that might
be so big as to be unaffordable.What’s needed is a dose of honesty.
It’s a dangerous world and vital
chunks of the US military are in direneed of modernization.
You can't have an honest funding
debate, however, when both sides arebeing disingenuous. DoD budgeting ishard enough without having to juggle
multiple sets of books or make quickcuts to make ends meet.
The next administration must bud-
get more realistically across its Future
Years Defense Program (FYDP) andbeyond.
As for Congress, if it isn't going to
give the Pentagon the flexibility toretire aging weapons and close bases
to fund much-needed modernization,readiness and personnel, then it muststrike a deal that gives DoD a base
budget to cover its needs.
Dose of US Budget Honesty Needed
EDITORIALS
February 15, 2016 R1 defensenews.com | 25Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
COMMENTARY
Any doubts about whose in-terests are served by ISIL inSyria have been eliminated.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UnitedArab Emirates have all stated theirwillingness to send ground forces to
Syria to fight ISIL as part of a globalcoalition led by the United States.
Syria and Iran have reacted menac-
ingly. So much for the fiction that Iran,its Syrian client, and, for that matter,Russia see ISIL in Syria as an enemy.
For all three it is a gift that keeps ongiving.
For Syrian President Bashar al-
Assad, ISIL is the evil foil making himand his regime look good by compari-son.
For the Syrian regime and the self-proclaimed ISIL “caliph” Abu Bakral-Baghdadi, the relationship is largely
one of live-and-let live. When ISIL seessomething it wants — an airbase filledwith weaponry, a city featuring price-
less antiquities, or an oil field — itsweeps away Assad regime forces.
But the two supposed enemies have
much in common. Each sees value —Assad for a ticket back to polite soci-ety, al-Baghdadi for recruiting world-
wide in Sunni Muslim communities —in the other being one of the two onlypolitical figures left standing in Syria.
ISIL’s value to Assad skyrocketed onSept. 30, when Russia intervenedmilitarily. Moscow proclaimed it was
deploying combat aircraft to Syria tofight ISIL. It then proceeded to doalmost anything but. Aside from an
occasional bombing run for appear-ances sake, or to help out a regimeunit sitting atop something desired by
ISIL, Russia’s bombing campaign isclearly designed to help the Assadregime, and by extension ISIL, elim-
inate Syrian nationalist alternatives.In response, US Secretary of State
John Kerry tried to characterize ISIL
as the common enemy of the civilizedworld, and devised a diplomatic proc-ess he hoped would ultimately side-
line Bashar al-Assad for the sake of aunified Syrian ground force (Army andrebels together) against ISIL.
Kerry’s initiative has fallen on hardtimes. A Geneva peace conferencewas convened and almost instantly
suspended. Russia, notwithstandingits status as “co-convener” of thediplomatic initiative, escalated its
pro-regime air campaign: not againstISIL, but against Syrian rebels holdingparts of Aleppo.
Despite these events, three Gulfstates in succession announced theirreadiness to dispatch ground forces to
eastern Syria to fight ISIL. US DefenseSecretary Ash Carter reacted quickly:“That kind of news is very welcome.”
Indeed it is. What the war against
ISIL in Syria has lacked is a groundcombat component large enough andprofessional enough to close with and
kill ISIL. Is the Gulf offer real? Do the three
states have ground force capabilities
that can contribute to a decisive cam-paign against ISIL in Syria?
What is on the record, however, is
Russian behavior and regime andIranian reactions. According to al-Assad’s foreign minister, any such
anti-ISIL coalition “will be consideredaggression,” and its participants “willreturn home in wooden coffins.”
What we are seeing in Syria is acollaborative military effort embracingRussia, Iran, ISIL and the Assad re-
gime. If they eliminate Syrian national-ist alternatives to al-Assad and ISIL,will Assad and his allies then turn
against the “caliph?” Or will Syria slipinto an uneasy, unstable partition?
The fiction of ISIL as a common
enemy had diplomatic utility for JohnKerry – Russian, Iranian and Assadregime reaction to the Gulf ground
force offer killed it. Facts, now beingcreated by Russia, must govern Syria-and ISIL-related policy. DN
North Korea’s recent nuclear testhas generated much mediaattention and expert com-
mentary. Notwithstanding legitimateconcerns about nuclear weapons inthe hands of a rogue regime, there’s
been a lot of hand-wringing aboutwhat to do.
Many urge negotiations to contain or
even roll back the nuclear program,but DPRK’s leaders have shown nointerest. They say they’re going to
keep their nukes to avoid what hap-pened to Iraq’s Saddam Hussein andLibya’s Moammar Gadhafi.
President Obama has wisely chosennot to provide Kim Jong-Un with anill-deserved negotiating forum and the
associated stature that comes with
major power engagement. So what should we do? Yes, increase
secondary sanctions, freeze overseas
bank accounts and seek further toisolate a regime that has carried out
unspeakable crimes against a largesegment of its population.
Most important, our approach
should also include a concerted mil-
itary-technical effort to deny Kim
Jong-Un and his crowd the perceivedbenefits of owning nukes.
What capabilities, specifically, areneeded?
• Exquisite intelligence to know
when a nuclear ballistic missile launchis being considered or directed, and
ability to prevent or delay a launch
order from reaching missile units.• Military capabilities to destroy
fixed-based and mobile missiles on
the ground, or if any get launched,
advanced missile defenses to shootthem down.
• Cyber capabilities to disrupt war-
head arming and firing systems, orcause flaws to be introduced intowarhead designs, so that any arriving
warheads are duds. Under such conditions, North Ko-
rea’s leaders would no longer “own”
their nuclear weapons — in a sense,we would.
A bit fanciful? Not necessarily. The
technologies, subsystems and capa-bilities exist today to address eachone of these goals notwithstanding the
need for a bit of luck here and there.
Consider the problem of huntingmobile missiles. We didn’t do a very
good job of this during the first Iraq
war in 1991. But the North Koreanproblem is different; systems and
technologies for sensing, on-boardhigh-performance computing, preci-sion strike, and command and control
have greatly advanced in 25 years.North Korea has about the same
land mass as Virginia, about one-
fourth the size of Iraq. From AndrewsAFB in Maryland, F-35 aircraft couldreach any point in Virginia within 10-15
minutes. F-35s based in South Korea
could carry out precision conventionalstrikes within that same time.
In theory, just a few stealthy dronescould cover the entire country 24/7,cueing strike aircraft shortly after a
mobile missile was spotted. Just look-ing at a map, the North Korean roadnetwork is primitive and sparse. If
mobile missiles are not easily off-roadcapable, then an area search problemis reduced to a much more manage-
able linear search. There are reports that North Korea
is developing a submarine-launched
ballistic missile, but given US capa-bilities to track noisy, older generationsubmarines, such as those possessed
by North Korea, this is not likely to be
a prudent investment.A vital challenge will be ensuring
that North Korea’s isolated leaders
receive the message that they can’tcount on their nukes so they better
not risk using them. Creating doubt about whether nucle-
ar weapons are effective as a regime
shield, or as means to coerce others,may lead to more risk-adverse regimebehavior. Kim Jong-Un may be more
likely to ponder a series of events thatend with his being hauled before theInternational Criminal Court to an-
swer for crimes against humanity. DN
Negating North Korea’s NukesJohn R. Harveyserved as principaldeputy assistantsecretary of defensefor nuclear, chemicaland biologicaldefense programsfrom 2009-2013.
ISIL: The Common Enemy FictionAmbassadorFrederic C. Hof isan Atlantic Councilsenior fellow, aVietnam veteran andformer US StateDepartment official.
26 | defensenews.com February 15, 2016Celebrating 30 Years of Excellence
Last WordCOMMENTARY
Twenty-five years ago, late in theafternoon of Feb. 26, 1991, 260American soldiers with 19 tanks
and 26 Bradley fighting vehicles in thetwo lead cavalry troops of an 1,100man armored cavalry battle group
charged out of a sandstorm andcaught the rear guard of Iraq’s Repub-lican Guard Corps in the open desert
along the North-South grid line re-ferred to as “73 Easting.”
Taken by surprise, the numerically
superior, full-strength, 2,500-man Iraqibrigade with T-72 tanks in defensivepositions supported by mines, artillery
and infantry with anti-tank weaponswas swept away in a battle of annihila-tion. Attacking American soldiers lost
one dead, six wounded and one de-stroyed Bradley.
Americans in Washington were
surprised. A chorus of television pun-dits, academics and retired Armygenerals had warned that American
soldiers would suffer heavy casualties.Retired Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ed-ward Meyer actually declared that war
with Iraq would produce 10,000 to30,000 US casualties.
The generals commanding Army
forces in the Middle East worried thatMeyer was right. They had not seenaction since Vietnam and they irratio-
nally inflated the Iraqi Army’s fightingpower. They should have known bet-
ter.
Rebuilding the ArmyThe courageous and intelligent
performance of American soldiers inbattle of 73 Easting was testimony tothe superior combination of training,
technology and human capital that theUS Army’s post-Vietnam leadership,Gens. William DePuy, Paul Gorman
and Donn Starry, began building in themid-1970s.
DePuy, the commander of Training
and Doctrine Command (TRADOC),was the principal force drivingchange. DePuy saw warfare through a
different lens. He had led an infantry
platoon from Utah Beach through theBattle of the Bulge in World War II.
DePuy acknowledged the US Army’sdefeat in Vietnam, but he knew the USArmy had to change its focus to fight a
capable opponent like the Sovietarmed forces.
Israel’s sobering experience in the
1973 war with Egypt and Syria rein-forced DePuy’s conviction that theArmy needed a new war-fighting doc-
trine to guide investments in humancapital, organization, and technology.The battle of 73 Easting was DePuy’s
crowning achievement.
Acquisition MisfiresSadly, war often makes victorious
armies stupid and Desert Storm wasno exception. Twenty-five years later,
DePuy’s Army is in ruins. Thanks to a series of multibillion-
dollar acquisition failures like the
sprawling $20 billion Future CombatSystem, the Ground Combat Vehicleand Armed Aerial Scout, the US Army
is caught in a modernization deathspiral.
The outcome is an unfocused, sin-
gle-service acquisition plan designed
to upgrade 1980s vintage platformsand weapon systems or selectively
replace systems inside the old struc-ture on a one-for-one basis with com-parable, more expensive versions of
existing aircraft, tanks, trucks andguns.
Any closed system evolves toward a
state of entropy and the US Army isvery, very closed. Closed systems also
breed fear of the kind of change in
organization and technology that Gen.DePuy and his successors embraced.
The idea of moving the US Army out
of the industrial-age structure basedon single-service self-sufficiency intoan organizational design based on
integrated, joint operations or service
interdependency remains anathema tothe US Army.
The critical need for an Army com-posed of self-contained independentbattle groups that operate on land the
way the Navy’s ships operate at seawithin the framework of joint, in-tegrated intelligence, surveillance and
reconnaissance; strike; maneuver andsustainment is stubbornly and myo-pically resisted.
As a result, the opportunity to pur-
sue full-spectrum rapid prototyping ofpowerful new operational capabilities
— organizing construct, human cap-ital strategy and equipment, not justthe technology — is lost. Instead, the
Army clings to brigade combat teams,in uneven states of readiness, depen-
dent on division and corps headquar-
ters and support structures.In 1991, the US Army stripped out
several divisions to field full-strength
brigades and divisions in Saudi Arabiabefore engaging the enemy. In today’scome-as-you-are war-fighting environ-
ment, this is a non-starter.
How Many 4-Stars?Like the other services, the US
Army’s organization for combat
should not be viewed in isolation from
its “corporate overhead.” The fact thatfour Army four stars — George Mar-shall, Douglas MacArthur, Dwight
Eisenhower and Henry Arnold—could command and effectively em-ploy 6 million American soldiers in
World War II while today’s shrinkingArmy of 490,000 needs six four starsto manage the force should alert the
politicians in both parties to theArmy’s problems.
Breaking open closed systems is
never pleasant, but it must be done.The Army’s passion for rewardingofficers who reinforce their bosses’
prejudices and beliefs makes the taskeven more challenging.
If nothing is done, Americans will
end up much like Mark Baum, the
hedge fund manager in the “The BigShort.” Baum was horrified to discov-
er that widespread fraud in the mort-
gage market would precipitate aneconomic collapse on a national, even
global scale.If nothing is done, Americans will be
equally horrified when they are sur-
prised not by victory, but defeat. DN
War Makes Victorious Armies StupidBy DouglasMacgregor,executive vicepresident of BMG LLC,a decorated combatveteran and author.His newest book,“Margin of Victory,”will be available inJune.
Pascal Guyot/AFP/Getty Images
A US Marine Corps special forces member inspects a destroyed Iraqi ArmyRussian-made T-62 tank Feb. 27, 1991, in Kuwait City after allied troops liberated thecapital. The US Army, rebuilt after the failure of Vietnam and so successful againstIraq, is facing new challenges.
A Rebuilt ArmyAfter Vietnam Is Regressing
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