Floyd Ciruli 777 Grant St., Ste 303, Denver, CO 80203 PH (303) 399-3173 FAX (303) 399-3147 www.ciruli.com 2016: The Year of the Outsider CCI Foundation Summer Conference Professor Floyd Ciruli Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver June 2016
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Floyd Ciruli 777 Grant St., Ste 303, Denver, CO 80203 PH (303) 399-3173 FAX (303) 399-3147 www.ciruli.com
2016: The Year of the Outsider
CCI FoundationSummer Conference
Professor Floyd Ciruli
Crossley Center for Public Opinion ResearchJosef Korbel School of International Studies
University of Denver
June 2016
Korbel School 20161
Trump vs. Clinton:What Does it Mean for Colorado?
Topics
Both parties dealingwith major change/candidates not popular
Policy changes in 2017‒ Foreign‒ Domestic
Colorado candidatesand ballot issues
Swing state, greatplace to watch
Korbel School 20162
Year of the OutsiderHistorical Precedents
1964 Barry Goldwater
1968 Eugene McCarthy
1972 George McGovern/GeorgeWallace
1976 Jimmy Carter
1980 Ronald Reagan
1984 Gary Hart
1992 Ross Perot
1996 Pat Buchanan
2004 Howard Dean
2008 Barack Obama
2012 Herman Cain, Ron Paul
2016 Donald Trump, Ben Carson,Carly Fiorina, Bernie Sanders
Barry Goldwater George McGovernPhoto: Getty
Donald Trump Bernie Sanders
Korbel School 20163
Major Challenge to Parties
Donald Trump
John Kasich
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Republicans
Tea Party/working class revolt (limitedto no government)
Democrats
Income inequity, anti-Wall Street revolt(regulated to no capitalism)
Independents
Anti-gridlock, corruption, campaignfinance revolt (reform to no CitizensUnited)
Republicans
Tea Party/working class revolt (limitedto no government)
Democrats
Income inequity, anti-Wall Street revolt(regulated to no capitalism)
Independents
Anti-gridlock, corruption, campaignfinance revolt (reform to no CitizensUnited)
Europe and U.S.: 2008/09 Economic crisis,Demographic change, Migration, Ethnic, Race,Religious tension, Terror
Ted Cruz
Korbel School 20164
Colorado Outsider Characteristics
Pat Schroeder
Dick Lamm
Gary Hart
Ben Nighthorse Campbell
Tom Tancredo
John Hickenlooper
Pat Schroeder Tom Tancredo
John Hickenlooper Ben NighthorseCampbell
In Colorado, Independence andAnti-establishment Image and
Tone are Major Asset
Korbel School 20165
Clinton Close to Delegate Win;Sanders Won’t QuitDemocratic Delegate Race
Need 2,382 Delegates to Win; 906 Remaining Delegates
Delegates % Votes
Clinton
PledgesSuper delegates
1,769543
4614
13.0 million Needs 8% of remainingdelegates
Total 2,312 60
Sanders
PledgesSuper delegates
1,50144
391
10.0 million Needs 92% ofremaining delegates
Total 1,545 40
Total 3,857 19% delegatesremainingTotal Delegates 4,763 81
Q: Let me ask you about your approval or disapproval of the jobperformance of some Colorado and national politicians.[ROTATED]
• Metro area – 56% of state• 65% of Democratic vote
Korbel School 201616
Republican U.S. Senate CandidatesColorado
Primary June 28, 2016Convention
Darryl Glenn
Petitions
Rob Blaha
Ryan Frazier
Jack Graham
Jon Keyser
2014 Governor Primary
Votes %
Bob Beauprez 116,773 30
Tom Tancredo 102,830 27
Scott Gessler 89,282 23
Mike Kopp 36,373 20
Total 384,747 100
2010 Senate Primary
Votes %
Ken Buck 209,638 52
Jane Norton 196,954 48
Total 406,592 100
Korbel School 201617
Hickenlooper Goes to D.C.Opposite of Woe
Governor Hickenlooper’s ApprovalAmong Metro Area Partisans – 61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Democrat Unaffiliated Republican
75%68%
34%
14%18%
58%
11% 12% 8%
Approval Disapproval Don't Know
Q: Let me ask you about your approval or disapproval of the job performance of someColorado and national politicians. [ROTATED]
Ciruli Associates, N300, 2016
Near end ofterm
Good atpolitics
Does he addvalue toticket?
Hart, Romer,Salazar?
Korbel School 201618
Single-Payer – ColoradoCareLosing in Metro Area – 30% in Favor to 43% Against
Denver Metro AreaPartisan Support and Opposition
Self-Description
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Democrat Unaffiliated Republican
44%
31%
9%
21%
47%
71%
35%
22% 19%
Vote For Vote Against Don't Know
Q: There will be a proposal, Amendment 69, on this November’s election ballot to createColoradoCare, a single-payer government run health care system for Colorado residents,partially paid for by a $25 billion dollar increase in state taxes. Will you vote for ballotAmendment 69 or vote against it?
Ciruli Associates, N600, 2016
“Between the Clintonand establishmentwing of the party
versus the Sanders,liberal, youth wing ofthe party, there aresome real tensions
and difference and itplays out in single-
payer.” (Colorado PublicRadio, 5-16)
Korbel School 201619
Environment/Gas and Oil/Local Control
Gas and oil development downfrom 2014
North Front Rangecommunities (NIMBY) lowerpriority
Gas and oil step up publicaffairs, public relations andadvertising
Where’s the money?
Environmentalism lost passionwith public – more partisan,more extreme, some wins,fewer problems
“It’s an extraordinaryamount of money forresearch and polling…”(ColoradoComplete, 5-27-16)
“You just don’t quitesense the edginess,the concern on thatissue the way you didtwo years ago.” (InsideEnergy, Corporation forPublic Broadcasting)
1974 Dick Lamm, Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brownelected
1974 Democrats take State House, lose it in 1976
Colorado Politics in the 2000s
OfficesAll Republican
2002All Democrat
2008Divided
2014 Results 2016
Governor Owens R Ritter D Hickenlooper D Same
U.S. Senate Campbell R Salazar D Bennet D ?
U.S. Senate Allard R Udall D Gardner R Same
Congress 5R, 2D 2R, 5D 4R, 3D ?
Colorado House 37R, 28D 27R, 37D 3 seats D ?
Colorado Senate 18R, 17D 14R, 21D 1 seat R ?
President Bush 8% (2000)Bush 5% (2004)
Obama 9% Obama 5% ?
Govs. (L to R) Dick Lamm, Bill Ritter, JohnHickenlooper, Bill Owens and Roy Romer at afundraiser at the governor’s mansion on Nov. 20.Photo: Bernard Grant/The Colorado Statesman