2016 Petaluma Local Economic Profile

2016 Petaluma:Local Economic Profile

2016S O N O M AC O U N T Y

Petaluma Chamber of CommerceEDB

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOARD

SONOMA COUNTY

Table of Contents

1. Letter and Highlights

2. Population and Demographics

3. Population and Income Projection

4. Employment

5. Residential Real Estate

6. Real Estate and Construction

7. Consumer Spending and Taxable Sales

8. Education

9. City Data Snapshot

Petaluma: Local Economic Profile

The Sonoma County Economic Development Board (EDB), in partnership with the Sonoma County Workforce Investment Board (WIB), the City of Petaluma, and the Petaluma Chamber of Commerce is pleased to present the 2016 Petaluma Local Economic Profile.

Highlights from this Local Economic Profile include:

■ Petaluma’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 3.3% in June 2015, lower than Sonoma County (4.3%), California (6.2%) and the nation (5.5%) for the same month.

■ Between 2000 and 2015, the median household income in Petaluma grew by 22% to $75,655. Looking into 2020, this growth is expected to continue, with median income rising to $85,773, an increase of around 13% from 2015.

■ The number of houses sold in Petaluma was down to 607 in 2014, a decrease of 29% since 2012. This can be attributed to the rising home prices over the last few years.

■ Petaluma’s taxable sales show signs of rebounding with a gain of 12% in 2013. This gain is consistent with strengthening economic activity across Sonoma County.

■ The average SAT score for a student from Petaluma City Schools in the 2013-14 school year was 1608. This places the school district above the county average of 1578 and the state average of 1487.

While every effort was made to ensure this report contained up-to-date information, certain data was unavailable at the time this report was released; thus, some figures may reflect years previ-ous to 2015.

Thank you for your interest in the Economic Development Board’s research. For additional information, questions, comments, or suggestions please contact us at (707) 565-7170 or visit www.sonomaedb.org. For other city-specific questions, please visit www.cityofpetaluma.net or/and www.petalumachamber.com.

BEE

Pamela Chanter Pamela Chanter Chair Economic Development Board

Ben Stoneen Stonexecutive Directorconomic Development Board

Board of Directors Pamela Chanter, Chair Richard Carvolth Nick Papdopoulos Michael Nicholls Linda Kachiu Jorge Alcazar Tara Jasper

Michael Tomasini Wayne Leach Terry Garrett

015 Sonoma County Economic Development Board. The Economic Development Board (EDB) believes all data ntained within this report to be accurate and the most current available, but does not guarantee its accuracy or mpleteness. Use of data from an outside source does not represent an endorsement of any product or service by e EDB, its members or affiliates. This publication can be made available in alternative formats such as Braille, large nt, audiotape, or computer disk. Please direct requests to (707) 565-7170 and allow 72 hours for your request to be ocessed. This report was prepared by Brian Marland.

©2cocothpripr

www.sonomaedb.org

2

Alone

Population and Demographics

The population of Petaluma in 2015 was 59,322, and according to Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections, it is expected to rise about 2.9% to 61,048 by 2020. This is on par with the projected population increase of 2.7% for Sonoma County over the same period. From 2000 to 2015, Petaluma’s population grew about 9%.

In 2015, for the population of those 25 and older, 20% of residents had obtained a High School Diploma. This is consis-tent with Sonoma County in the same year with 20% of residents obtaining diplomas. The category of Some College consists of individuals who have taken college courses but who have never received their degree. In 2015, about 25% of residents had obtained a Bachelor’s Degree and around 12% had received a Graduate or Professional Degree.

A new trend we see moving into 2020 is the increase in the Hispanic population in Petaluma. Between 2010 and 2020 there is predicted to be a 3.8 percentage point increase. This is on par with Sonoma County, which will see a 4 percent-age point increase in Hispanic population.

2000 2010 20202015

Total Population,Petaluma

Thou

sand

s of

Res

iden

ts

50.0

57.5

65.0

2015 Population 25+ by Educational AttainmentPetaluma

25%

25%19%

12%

9%

5% 5%

HS Graduate/GED

Some College

Bachelor’s Degree

Less than 9th Grade

High School, No Diploma

Associate Degree

Graduate/Professional Degree

0%

85%

White Hispanic Some Other Race American IndianAsian African American

Petaluma Population byRace/Ethnicity

2010

2015

202050%

Population & Income Projection

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The population by age in Petaluma in 2015 and 2020 followed a wide distribution, and according to Environ-mental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections, the 65 and older population is expected to increase the great-est amount by 2020. This is creating a decrease in individuals 10-24 and 45-64 between 2015 and 2020.

Between 2000 and 2015, the median household income in Petaluma grew by 22% to $75,655. Looking into 2020, this growth is expected to continue, with median income rising to $85,773, an increase of around 13% from 2015.

ESRI projects that the percentage of households earning less than $35,000 will decrease by 4.5 percentage points between 2015 and 2020.

Between 2015 and 2020, the fastest growing household income ranges are from $75,000 to $200,000+, resulting in further concentration of households in higher-income tiers.

Population by Age,Petaluma

0%

30%

0-4 5-9 10-24 25-44 45-64 65+

Age

Per

cent

of P

opul

atio

n

10%

20%

2015

2020

2000 2011 20202015

Median Household Income,Petaluma

Thou

sand

s of

Dol

lars

0

20

40

60

80

100

Source all: U.S. Census Bureau 2000, 2010; ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com)

Households by Income,Petaluma

2020

20152000

$200

,000+

$150

,000-$

199,9

99

$100

,000-$

149,9

99

$75,0

00-$9

9,999

$50,0

00-$7

4,999

$35,0

00-$4

9,999

$25,0

00-$3

4,999

$15,0

00-$2

4,999

<$15

,000

Per

cent

age

of H

ouse

hold

s

0%

10%

20%

30%

Employment

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Petaluma’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 3.3% in June 2014, lower than Sonoma County (4.3%) for the same month. Compared to June of the previous year, Petaluma’s unemployment rate is down 1 points from 4.3%. Unemployment remains significantly lower in Peta-luma compared to its peak of 10.2% in January of 2010. Petaluma’s unemployment rate is below both the state (6.2%) and the nation (5.5%).

Total employment in Petaluma was 31,700 in June 2015, which is up 2.3% from a year earlier. Although it is following an increasing trend, we are noticing a pattern of seasonal employment spikes in the numbers.

The total number of business establishments in 2015 in Petaluma is 3,093. Sonoma County has about 25,800 business establishments.

About 46% of Petaluma’s employed population is in the category of Services, which includes education, health care, tourism and legal services. The second largest sector is Retail Trade, followed by Finance, Insurance and Real Estate. These sectors show that Petaluma has a service based economy, with manufacturing and construction taking a smaller role.

Petaluma Seasonally UnadjustedUnemployment Rate, 2008 - June 2015

Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov)

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08

Petaluma Seasonally UnadjustedEmployment, 2008 - June 2015

Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov)

Thou

sand

s of

Em

ploy

ees

27

28

29

30

31

'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Total Business Establishments2015

Santa Rosa

Petaluma

Rohnert Park

Windsor

City of Sonoma

Healdsburg

Sebastopol

Cotati

Cloverdale

Number of Businesses

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Total Business Establishments2015

Santa Rosa

Petaluma

Rohnert Park

Windsor

City of Sonoma

Healdsburg

Sebastopol

Cotati

Cloverdale

Number of BusinessesSource: ESRI Business Analyst projections (www.esri.com)

Petaluma Employed Population 16+ by Industry,2015

46%

13%

10%

8%

Services

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Construction

Agriculture and Mining

Transportation and Utilities

Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate

Public Administration

Wholesale Trade

8%

4%4%

Residential Real Estate

www.sonom

5

a .orgedb

Median home prices in Petaluma increased 17% from 2013 to 2014. After the housing bubble burst in the late 2000’s, the median home price has been trending upward in Petaluma and reached $540,000 in 2014.

The total number of houses sold in Petaluma has been decreasing since 2012, down to 607 houses in 2014. The buying frenzy that sustained the housing market after it collapsed has now been reversed by rising home prices. The number of houses sold in Petaluma decreased 29% between 2012 and 2014.

The average sales price of a home in Petaluma for 2014 was $594,029. This puts Petaluma just above the averagefor home prices in Sonoma County.

Median Price of an Existing Home in Petaluma, 1999-2014

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00'99

Thou

sand

s of

Dol

lars

Total Number of Houses Sold in Petaluma,1999-2014

400

600

800

1000

'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00'99

Source all: Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (www.bareis.com)

Average Sales Price ($ Thousands) by Sub-County Area, 2014County Average Price ($ Thousands)

WindsorCotatiCloverdale$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1000

Average Sales Price ($ Thousands)

SonomaSebastopolSanta RosaRohnert ParkPetalumaHealdsburg

Real Estate & Construction

www.sonomaedb.org

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Retail vacancy rates in Petaluma have follwed a steady decline since 2011 and leveled off around 3.8% in the second quarter of 2015. The office vacancy rates have significantly declined since their peak of 41.5% in early 2010 and the industrial vacancy rates have fallen since their peak of 18.7% in the first quarter of 2010. Currently, the office and industrial vacancy rates in Petaluma are 12.9% and 5.7% respectively.

Petaluma’s residential housing vacancy has been histori-cally lower than Sonoma County’s and this is projected to continue into 2020. From 2000 to 2015, Petaluma’s residential housing vacancy rate increased 3.2 percent-age points, compared to a 3.4 percentage points gain across the county. Petaluma’s residential housing vacancy is expected to continue to rise from 5% in 2015 to 5.3% in 2020.

The values of residential and non-residential building permits in Petaluma in July 2015 were $45,024,327 and $30,603,400, respectively. Building permit values reflect trends in construction activity, and while fluctuating year to year have been consistently higher from 2012-2015 than the lows of 2008-2010.

Source: Keegan and Coppin Company, Inc. (www.keegancoppin.com)

Petaluma Commercial Property Vacancy Rate,Q1 2005 - Q2 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05

OfficeIndustrialRetail

Per

cent

Petaluma and Sonoma CountyResidential Housing Vacancy*

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

'20'15'10'00

PetalumaSonoma County

*Vacancy includes both owner and rental units. Source: ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com)

Value of Residential & Non-Residential Building Permits in Petaluma, 2000 - 2015

Source: California Homebuilding Foundation

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100 Non-residential

Residential

'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00

In M

illio

ns o

f Dol

lars

Consumer Spending & Taxable Sales

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7

Petaluma’s taxable sales are rebounding with a gain of about 12% in 2013. This continues the upward trend that started in 2009. These sales numbers outpace Sonoma County which saw an increase of 8.6% in taxable sales in 2013, and the state which only rose by 5%.

Compared to the national average, residents of Petaluma spend more on housing, pensions and social security (payroll deductions), entertainment and recreation, travel and education. This is most notable in housing, travel and education where Petaluma residents spend respectively 34%, 39%, and 48% more than their national peers. Petaluma residents spend over 70% of expenditures on Housing, Other*, Transportation and Food.

Total Taxable Sales in Petaluma,1997-2013

Source: California Board of Equalization (www.boe.ca.gov)

$600

$800

$1000

$1200

'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00'99'98'97

In M

illio

ns o

f Dol

lars

Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online (www.bao.esri.com)

Consumer Spending by Commodity in Petaluma, 2015

32%

14%11%

Entertainment and Recreation$96,110,073

Cash Contributions/Gifts$72,474,407

Travel$60,572,268

Education$50,181,601

Transportation$291,257,295

Housing$641,261,203

Pensions and Social Security$212,682,292

Food$241,401,655

Healthcare$132,813,987

30.7%

14%13.9%

11.5%

10.2%

*The Other category includes Apparel and Services, Alcoholic Beverages, Household Operations, Housekeeping Supplies, Household furnishings and equipment, Life/Other Insurance, Miscellaneous, Personal Care Product and Services, and Smoking Products.

Other*$292,377,680

www.sonomaedb.org

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EducationThe percentage of English learners in Petaluma City Schools is 13%. This includes both the Petaluma City Elementary and Petaluma Joint Union High school districts. The ratio of English learners in Petaluma City Schools is below the county average of 23%, as well as the state average of 22%.

The average SAT score for a student from Petaluma Joint Union High School district in the 2013-14 school year was 1608. This places Petaluma Joint Union High School district above the county average of 1578, and well above the state average of 1487.

For a complete listing of the particular schools located in each district, please visit the Sonoma County Office of Education’s website at: http://www.scoe.org/pub/htdocs/finddistrict.html

English Learners by School District,2014-15

Percent of Total Students

Source All: California Department of Education (www.cde.ca.gov)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Healdsburg Unified School District

Sonoma Valley Unified School District

Cloverdale Unified School District

Santa Rosa City Schools

Sonoma County

California

Windsor Unified School District

Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified School District

Sebastopol Union School District

Petaluma City Schools

Cloverd

ale U

nified

Schoo

l Dist

rict

Cotati-R

ohne

rt Park

Unified

Sch

ool D

istric

t

Califor

nia

Healds

burg

Unified

Sch

ool D

istric

t

Sonom

a Vall

ey U

nified

Sch

ool D

istric

t

Wind

sor U

nified

Sch

ool D

istric

t

1300

1390

1480

1570

1660

1750

Sonom

a Cou

nty

Petaluma J

oint

Union High Sch

ool

Santa

Rosa

High S

choo

l

West S

onom

a Cou

nty

Union H

igh S

choo

l

(Seb

astop

ol)

Average Total SAT Scores by School District

2013-14 School Year

3-Year Average: 2011-14

www.sonomaedb.org

9

City Data Snapshot

Cloverdale

TotalPopulation

2015

8,858

UnemploymentRate

June 2015

3.7%

MedianHousehold

Income2015

$57,643

AverageSales Priceof a Home

2014

$407,515

Percentageof EnglishLearners2014-15

33.2%

AverageTotal

SAT Scores2013-14

1433

Cotati 7,399 5.7% $62,498 $383,993 19.3% 1551

Healdsburg 11,681 3.7% $61,950 $963,632 38.1% 1512

Petaluma 59,322 3.3% $75,655 $594,029 13.1% 1608

Rohnert Park 41,967 4.5% $58,719 $383,993 19.3% 1551

Santa Rosa 171,827 4.8% $57,602 $508,331 24.4% 1632

Sebastopol 7,490 3.7% $57,607 $742,854 13.4% 1663

City of Sonoma 11,202 3.9% $59,596 $835,899 33.5% 1466

Windsor 27,221 3.7% $77,205 $507,146 20.7% 1553

SonomaCounty* 494,431 4.3% $61,807 $571,928 23.2% 1578

Sources and Notes

www.sonomaedb.org

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Note on Data Sources

The 2016 Petaluma Local Economic Profile is a brief summary on various demographic, economic and social aspects of Petaluma. Economic Development Board (EDB) research originates from information available from outside resources and previously published material. The 2016 Peta-luma Local Economic Profile offers partial or composite representations of raw data and cites respective source data sets. For more information, please see the listed sources.

The Local Economic Profile does not provide complete in- depth analyses of all facets of the incorporated cities or the county. The EDB believes all data contained within this report to be accurate and the most current available, but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Use of data from an outside source does not represent an endorsement of any product or service by the EDB, its members or affiliates.

The 2016 Petaluma Local Economic Profile was developed from national and local data sources. Interested readers are encouraged to contact data source agencies or organizations for further research. Readers are also invited to suggest for future reports by calling (707) 565-7170 or e-mailing [email protected].

Sources

Bay Area Real Estate Information Services

California Board of Equalization

California Department of Education

California Employment Development Department

California Homebuilding Foundation

ESRI Business Analyst

Keegan and Coppin Company

U.S. Census Bureau

The EDB is pleased to thank the following Signature Sponsors for their support of our important programs.

Economic Development Board141 Stony Circle, Ste. 110Santa Rosa, CA 95401(707)565-7170www.SonomaEDB.org

PRESENTING LEVEL

FOUNDATION LEVEL

PREMIER LEVEL

EXECUTIVE LEVEL

MEDIA LEVEL

Sonoma County Board of Supervisors

EDBECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOARD

SONOMA COUNTY

American AgCreditAmerican River BankCity of Santa RosaComcastGeorge Petersen InsuranceKeegan & Coppin Co.

Midstate ConstructionNorBARSonoma County AllianceSummit State BankVantreo InsuranceZainer Rinehart Clarke