A Higher Degree of You 02.23.16 PRIVATE CAPITAL MARKETS PROJECT bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital P E P P E R D I N E 2016 Economic Forecast: Insights from Small and Mid-Sized Business Owners Craig Everett, Ph.D., MBA Director, Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project
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A Higher Degree of You02.23.16
PRIVATE CAPITALMARKETS PROJECT
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
P E P P E R D I N E
2016 Economic Forecast: Insights from Small and Mid-Sized Business Owners
Craig Everett, Ph.D., MBA Director, Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS WHO RAISED PAY FOR EMPLOYEES IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS BY SIZE
14
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Whole sample <$5 million $5-‐$100 million
52% 48%
74%
53% 51%
78%
56% 51%
69%
2014 2015 2016
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS WHO PLAN TO RAISE PAY FOR EMPLOYEES IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
15
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Whole sample <$5 million $5-‐$100 million
58% 55%
79%
60% 58%
77% 65% 62%
80%
2014 2015 2016
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS WHO PLAN TO GIVE EMPLOYEES RAISES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN PAYROLL TAX
16
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Whole sample <$5 million $5-‐$100 million
12% 13% 8% 18% 18% 15%
22% 23% 17%
2014 2015 2016
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS WHO THINK INSTABILITY IN WASHINGTON DC IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING THEIR ABILITY TO HIRE
17
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Whole sample <$5 million $5-‐$100 million
57% 58% 49% 43% 43% 41%
49% 49% 46%
2014 2015 2016
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESS OWNERS WHO PERSONALLY MADE MORE MONEY LAST YEAR THAN YEAR PRIOR
18
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Whole sample <$5 million $5-‐$100 million
42% 41% 52% 47% 46%
58% 47% 46%
59%
2014 2015 2016
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
PERCENTAGE OF OWNERS WHO PERSONALLY EXPECT TO MAKE MORE MONEY NEXT YEAR
19
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Whole sample <$5 million $5-‐$100 million
60% 60% 63% 68% 68% 69% 71% 72% 69%
2014 2015 2016
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
POLICIES TO HELP SPUR U.S. JOB CREATION
20
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
100%
Regulatory reform Tax incen+ves Increased access to capital
Educa+on reform Increased compe++ve posi+on with foreign
trade partners
Repeal or Modify Affordable Care Act
2011 17% 19% 44% 14%
2012 28% 21% 30% 5% 15%
2013 28% 28% 26% 6% 13%
2014 13% 19% 22% 6% 8% 32%
2015 13% 23% 23% 8% 9% 23%
2016 12% 23% 26% 7% 12% 20%
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
POLICIES SUPPORTED IN 2016
21
75%
82% 66%
32%
48%
55%
34%
28%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raising the debt ceiling when limit is reached in early March
Balanced US Budget
Comprehensive immigra+on reform with a path to ci+zenship
Democrats retaining control of the Senate in November
Repeal of the Affordable Care Act
Significant Reform of the Affordable Care Act
Con+nua+on of "Quan+ta+ve Easing" by Federal Reserve
Congress con+nuing to extend long-‐term unemployment benefits
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
CANDIDATES FOR U.S. PRESIDENT WHICH OFFER THE BEST POLICIES FOR SMALL BUSINESS ACORDING TO RESPONDENTS
22
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Donald Trump
Hilary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Ben Carson Other
Whole sample 34% 18% 12% 8% 7% 5% 4% 3% 9%
<$5 million 34% 18% 13% 7% 6% 6% 4% 3% 9%
$5-‐$100 million 32% 13% 6% 12% 18% 6% 4% 2% 8%
A Higher Degree of You
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DETAILS ABOUT THE RESPONDENTS GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
23
Less than or equal to 1011 - 2526 - 5051 - 7576 - 100101 - 150151 - 200more than 200
CA#
OR#
WA#
MT# ND# MN#
ID#WY#
SD#
NV#UT#
AZ#
CO#
NM#
TX#
NE#
KS#
OK# AR#
LA#MS# AL#
FL#
GA#
TN#SC#
NC#
VA#WV#KY#MO#
IL#IA#
WI#MI#
IN#OH#
MD#
PA#NJ#
NY#
ME#
NH#VT#MA#RI#
CT#
HI#AK#
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
DETAILS ABOUT THE RESPONDENTS INDUSTRY
24
28%
14% 10% 8%
7% 7%
6% 5%
4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% Services
Construc+on Retail trade Finance & real estate Manufacturing Informa+on technology or services Transporta+on and warehousing Health care Wholesale trade Educa+onal services Arts, entertainment or recrea+on Forestry, fishing, hun+ng or agriculture U+li+es & mining Unclassified establishments
DETAILS ABOUT THE RESPONDENTS NUMBER OF FULL-TIME EMPLOYEES
35
8%
46%
19%
10% 4%
13% 0 1-‐2
3-‐5 6-‐10
11-‐15 More than 15
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
DETAILS ABOUT THE RESPONDENTS NUMBER OF PART-TIME EMPLOYEES
36
43%
33%
13% 5% 2%
4% 0 1-‐2
3-‐5 6-‐10
11-‐15 More than 15
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
DETAILS ABOUT THE RESPONDENTS PRIMARY BUSINESS ACTIVITY
37
32%
68%
Sales Service
A Higher Degree of You
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DETAILS ABOUT THE RESPONDENTS PERCENTAGE OF CERTIFIED WOMEN-OWNED BUSINESSES
38
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Whole sample < $5 million $5 million -‐$100 million
19% 20% 10%
A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
About Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project The Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project at the Graziadio School of Business and Management is the first simultaneous, comprehensive, and on-going investigation of the major private capital market segments. The research seeks to understand the true cost of private capital across market types and the investment expectations of privately-held business owners; providing lenders, investors and the businesses that depend on them with critical data to make optimal investment and financing decisions, and better determine where the opportunities to create lasting economic value may be realized. Download reports and find more information at http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital. About Pepperdine University’s Graziadio School of Business and Management A leader in cul+va+ng entrepreneurship and digital innova+on, the Pepperdine University Graziadio School of Business and Management focuses on the real-‐world applica+on of MBA-‐level business concepts. The Graziadio School provides student-‐focused, globally-‐oriented educa+on through part-‐+me, full-‐+me, and execu+ve MBA programs at our five Southern California loca+ons and Silicon Valley, Santa Barbara, and Dallas campuses as well as through online and hybrid formats. In addi+on, the Graziadio School offers a variety of master of science programs, a bachelor of science in management degree-‐comple+on program, and the Presidents and Key Execu+ves MBA as well as execu+ve educa+on cer+ficate programs. Follow the Graziadio School on Facebook (www.facebook.com/pepperdine.graziadio), Twiker at @GraziadioSchool (hkps://twiker.com/graziadioschool) and LinkedIn (hkps://www.linkedin.com/edu).
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A Higher Degree of You
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
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Thank YouCraig Everett, Ph.D., MBA
Director, Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital