2016 Diamond Dollars Case Competition: Build the Perfect Bulpen

PIRATES PERFECT BULLPEN

SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY BASEBALL STATISTICS AND SABERMETRICS CLUB

Jeremy Losak Joey Weinberg Justin Mattingly Justin Perline Matt Russo

AGENDA1.Schedule Adjustments2.Park Factors and Linear Weights3.The Perfect Bullpen4.Similarity Scores5.Risk Assessment6.Our Bullpen

SCHEDULE ADJUSTMENTSMethodology• Projected plate appearances per inning and innings against bullpen

based on a team’s projected wOBA.

Final Projected Plate Appearances vs Each Team at

Each Park (1,094 Projected PA in

Pittsburgh)

PARK FACTORS AND LINEAR WEIGHTS

BB GB FB LD K IFF

-0.108 0.036 -0.125 -0.213 0.186 0.169

Schedule-Adjusted Linear Weights

Schedule-Adjusted Park Factors

1B Park Factor 2B Park Factor 3B Park Factor HR Park Factor FB% Park Factor GB% Park Factor

LD% Park Factor

IFF% Park Factor

1.034 1.041 1.036 0.934 0.974 1.006 1.004 1.038

● Used home/road data for each MLB team to create both linear weights and park factors

PC: Ballparks of Baseball

THE “PERFECT” BULLPEN• Applied linear weights to all bullpens in the last 10 years.• 2010 Braves bullpen came away with the highest weighted value.

2010 Braves Bullpen

K/9 K-BB% LOB% HR/9 GB% LD% FB% FIP

10.06 (1) 16.2% (2) 74.6% (12) 0.65 (2) 49.7% (1) 17.4% (8) 33% (1) 3.18 (2)

() denotes league rank

PC: SB Nation PC: Talking Chop

PLAYER COMBINATIONSPick 1 of 4 --> Dellin Betances, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Andrew MillerPick 1 of 4 --> Zach Britton, Ken Giles, Mark Melancon, Tony WatsonPick 2 of 12 --> Allen, Familia, Gregerson, Herrera, O’Day, Robertson, Romo, Rosenthal, Storen, Smith, Fields, Hendriks

Pick 1 of 110 --> All remaining relief pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2015

232,320 Pitcher Combinations!

SIMILARITY SCORES• Z-Scores of wOBA, K%, BB%, GB%, FB%, LD%, IFFB%

• Compared all bullpen combinations against 2010 Braves pen

• Weighted against DRA (Deserved Run Average)– “DRA controls for the context in which each event of a

game occurred, thereby allowing a more accurate prediction of pitcher responsibility , particularly in smaller samples.”

(Baseball Prospectus)• Score reflects best bullpen combination relative to 2010

Braves

2010 Braves Relief Options

RISK ASSESSMENT• PECOTA Percentiles used as a measure of variability• 50% Projection and 10% Projection Difference in DRA to produce risk ratings• Individual risk ratings combined with player groupings to create group risk ratings• When picking our top relief options, we only kept those in the top 25 percentile

Kenley Jansen’s 2016 PECOTA Projection

THE BEST BULLPENS

#1 Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Darren O’Day, and Brett Cecil

Final Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%First 294.9 .277 3.17 27.98% 7.92% 55.04% 24.07% 18.41% 2.48%

Final Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%Second 287.6 .277 3.13 28.97% 7.96% 48.99% 28.18% 19.65% 3.18%

#2 Andrew Miller, Ken Giles, Jeurys Familia, Darren O’Day, and Brett Cecil

#1 Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Darren O’Day, and Brett Cecil

Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle

•Britton is a ground ball machine–Projected 75.5% GB% leads league–Consecutive league leader in GB% (2014, 2015)

•#1 Bullpen (with Britton) highest with 55.04% GB•Giles projected only 45.9% GB%

#3Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Liam Hendriks, and Brett CecilFinal Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%

Third 299.6 .277 3.13 27.17% 7.56% 50.76% 26.31% 19.83% 3.10%

Final Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%Fourth 292.3 .277 3.09 28.13% 7.60% 44.84% 30.29% 21.08% 3.79%

#4Andrew Miller, Ken Giles, Darren O’Day,Liam Hendriks, and Brett Cecil

O’Day oldest (33) Projected for lowest GB% (39.7%) Projected for highest DRA (3.64)Familia expected to maintain high GB% Youth and breakout season 9.5 K/9Liam Hendriks recent success has projection models favoring him this season Lowest BB/9 of group at 2.3

Nick Turchiaro / USA Today Sports

#5Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Darren O’Day, and Brett Cecil

Final Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%Fifth 299.9 .277 3.15 28.01% 8.34% 54.51% 24.14% 18.53% 2.83%

Kim Klement / USA Today Sports

While Betances is projected to have a higher K%, and thus this rotation is projected to have a slightly higher K%, Miller is expected to walk less batters, and limit baserunners better than Betances.

Miller had a lower FIP than Betances in 2015 (2.16 FIP vs. 2.48 FIP)

Questions?