2015 Regional Economic Outlook: Windsor-Sarnia Economic Region | 1 The Windsor-Sarnia Economic Region covers Chatham-Kent, Essex and Lambton counties and is home to 640,000 residents. The region’s basic export industries are manufacturing and agriculture. Its principal centres are the Windsor Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), with a population of 333,000, and the Sarnia Census Agglomeration (CA) with a population of 90,000. These urban centres contain most of the region’s manufacturing base, while the rest of the region is largely rural and agricultural. The region’s economic recovery has been slowly, but steadily, improving with few exceptions and led by the Windsor CMA. External macro factors such as the depreciated loonie, faster U.S. economic growth, and lower oil prices bode well for the region’s outlook. In addition, local factors such as a new and expanded transportation network and existing manufacturing infrastructure will facilitate and accommodate growth. During the next two years, improved but still moderate growth is foreseen. Total employment in the Windsor- Sarnia ER was up 1.3 percent in 2014. Construction and transportation- warehousing industries were the main growth contributors offsetting losses in finance-insurance-real estate and accommodation-food. Manufacturing employment was down slightly in 2014 though it was up in the Windsor CMA. Following a large decline in 2013, employment outside the Windsor CMA jumped more than three percent in 2014 driven by large increases in construction and wholesale-retail trade employment. Total employment in the Windsor CMA dipped slightly in 2014. Labour Force Survey data can be volatile over short time periods due to its small sample size and these results could be reversed next year without any change in labour market fundamentals. The region’s unemployment rate at 7.9 percent in 2014 will fall to its lowest level since 2005 mainly due to higher job growth. Last year, the unemployment rate declined to 8.4 percent due to a drop in the labour force even though employment shrank one percent. Windsor CMA continues to have a higher unemployment rate than the rest of the region. Housing markets performed moderately better in 2014 with more sales and higher prices but less construction. Sales and prices climbed steadily higher from the 2009 recession low with most of the region’s rise coming from the Windsor CMA. Regional new housing construction, as measured by permits issued, will come in slightly lower in 2014 with the exception of the Windsor CMA. The region’s unemployment rate is expected to fall significantly in 2015 to 7.0 percent. Regional employment is forecast to rise 1.3 percent in 2015 and in 2016. Regional sales are forecast to increase 3.0 percent in 2015 and 3.5 percent in 2016 following a 1.8 percent rise in 2014. 1 2 3 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Windsor-Sarnia 2015 Presented by the Credit Unions of Ontario and the Ontario Chamber of Commerce
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2015 Windsor-Sarnia - Ontario Chamber of · PDF file2015 Regional Economic Outlook: Windsor-Sarnia Economic Region | 3 upturn is dependent upon sustained improvements in the region’s
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2015 Regional Economic Outlook: Windsor-Sarnia Economic Region | 1
The Windsor-Sarnia Economic
Region covers Chatham-Kent,
Essex and Lambton counties and
is home to 640,000 residents. The
region’s basic export industries are
manufacturing and agriculture. Its
principal centres are the Windsor
Census Metropolitan Area (CMA),
with a population of 333,000, and the
Sarnia Census Agglomeration (CA)
with a population of 90,000. These
urban centres contain most of the
region’s manufacturing base, while
the rest of the region is largely rural
and agricultural.
The region’s economic recovery has
been slowly, but steadily, improving
with few exceptions and led by the
Windsor CMA. External macro factors
such as the depreciated loonie,
faster U.S. economic growth, and
lower oil prices bode well for the
region’s outlook. In addition, local
factors such as a new and expanded
transportation network and existing
manufacturing infrastructure will
facilitate and accommodate growth.
During the next two years, improved
but still moderate growth is foreseen.
Total employment in the Windsor-
Sarnia ER was up 1.3 percent in 2014.
Construction and transportation-
warehousing industries were the main
growth contributors offsetting losses
in finance-insurance-real estate and
accommodation-food. Manufacturing
employment was down slightly in 2014
though it was up in the Windsor CMA.
Following a large decline in 2013,
employment outside the Windsor
CMA jumped more than three percent
in 2014 driven by large increases in
construction and wholesale-retail
trade employment. Total employment
in the Windsor CMA dipped slightly in
2014. Labour Force Survey data can
be volatile over short time periods
due to its small sample size and these
results could be reversed next year
without any change in labour market
fundamentals.
The region’s unemployment rate
at 7.9 percent in 2014 will fall to its
lowest level since 2005 mainly due
to higher job growth. Last year, the
unemployment rate declined to 8.4
percent due to a drop in the labour
force even though employment
shrank one percent. Windsor
CMA continues to have a higher
unemployment rate than the rest of
the region.
Housing markets performed
moderately better in 2014 with
more sales and higher prices but
less construction. Sales and prices
climbed steadily higher from the
2009 recession low with most of
the region’s rise coming from the
Windsor CMA. Regional new housing
construction, as measured by permits
issued, will come in slightly lower
in 2014 with the exception of the
Windsor CMA.
The region’s unemployment rate is expected to fall significantly in 2015 to 7.0 percent.
Regional employment is forecast to rise 1.3 percent in 2015 and in 2016.
Regional sales are forecast to increase 3.0 percent in 2015 and 3.5 percent in 2016 following a 1.8 percent rise in 2014.
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Regional economic outlook
Windsor-Sarnia2015
Presented by the Credit Unions of Ontario and the Ontario Chamber of Commerce
2015 Regional Economic Outlook: Windsor-Sarnia Economic Region | 2
Non-residential construction remained at a low level in
2014 similar to the previous year. Public construction
activity was closer to historical levels but private non-
residential permits and investment spending were at
decade lows.
The region’s manufacturing sector will benefit from
positive external macro factors and it will continue
to adjust to market and technological changes. U.S.
new motor vehicle sales are expected to increase in
2015 and in 2016, though at a slower pace. Over time,
manufacturers will experience improved profits and
market share as a result of the lower Canadian dollar
and faster U.S. economic growth. Lower oil prices
and the expanded transportation network will reduce
costs.
The large contraction in manufacturing firms and
employment following the last recession is largely
behind the industry and modest gains will continue.
Net Interprovincial -1,443 -2,119 -2,000 -1,700 -1,000
Net Intraprovincial -721 -721 -700 -700 -600
Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts. Notes: Housing sales and prices represent combined activity in real estate boards within the region.
Regional economic outlook
Windsor-Sarnia
2015 Regional Economic Outlook: Windsor-Sarnia Economic Region | 4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Employment (000s) 151.4 152.2 152.0 153.5 155.5
Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts.
Regional economic outlook
Ontario Summary
DisclaimeR: Regional Economic Outlook: Windsor-Sarnia (the “Analysis”) may have forward-looking statements about the future economic growth of the Province of Ontario and its regions. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ due to a variety of factors, including regulatory or legislative developments, competition, technological change, global capital market activity and general economic conditions in Canada, North America or internationally. This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the Analysis’ forward-looking statements, and all factors should be considered carefully by readers and readers should not place undue reliance on the Analysis’ forward-looking statements.
The information contained in this Analysis (“Content”) does not constitute professional advice, and should not be relied upon as accurate, reliable, complete, timely or fit for any particular purpose without receiving appropriate and qualified professional advice. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis, without any representations, warranties, conditions or guarantees, whether express or implied, including any representations, warranties, conditions or guarantees as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement, all of which are hereby disclaimed by Central 1 Credit Union, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, and all of the credit unions of Ontario and all the chambers of commerce and boards of trade in Ontario to the fullest extent permitted by law. Central 1 Credit Union, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, and all of the credit unions of Ontario and all the chambers of commerce and boards of trade in Ontario and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents will not under any circumstances be liable for any loss or damage in connection with the use of the Content. Readers’ use of the Content is at their own risk.