2015 INDUSTRIAL, AGRICULTURAL AND LARGE COMMERCIAL (IALC) ROADMAP PUBLIC EVALUATION WEBINAR Presentation November 18, 2015 Kay Hardy, Kris Bradley.

2015 INDUSTRIAL, AGRICULTURAL AND LARGE COMMERCIAL (IALC) ROADMAP

PUBLIC EVALUATION WEBINAR

Presentation

November 18, 2015

Kay Hardy, Kris Bradley

AGENDA – NOVEMBER 18, 2015

» Discuss CPUC and PA custom program evaluation efforts

» Introduction -- Kay Hardy

» 2015 IALC Roadmap studies -- Kris Bradley

» 2015 Roadmap studies -- PAs

» 2016 Roadmap Studies – Kay Hardy

» 2016 Roadmap Studies -- PAs

» Group discussion and wrap up

2015 CPUC IALC STUDIES

Study Title: Impact Study -- Custom Measures Budget: $2,500,000

Completion Date: Q1 2017 Study Manager: CPUC staff

Description: Ex post measurement and verification of program and measure impacts

Objective: Produce ex post gross and net savings estimates (kWh, kW and therms) for custom measureClaims

Key Research Questions: What are the realized energy savings, load reductions and factors in drivingthe decision to install energy efficient equipment

EM&V Methods: Field measurement, desk review, impact modeling, decision maker surveys

CPUC 2015 IALC STUDIES

Study Title: Energy Use Profile Study – NRNC Whole-Buildings Budget: $100,000 (subject to revision)

Completion Date: Q4 2016 Study Manager: CPUC staff

Description: Billing data-based assessment of typical building energy use profiles following completion of construction

Objective: Inform ex ante and ex post modeling efforts and assumptions regarding stable energy use levels and implications for M&V and associated program design features

Key Research Questions: Propose impact modeling solutions and program design features that address building usage

profiles following construction and expected longer-term energy savings

EM&V Methods: Billing data-based load profile development for whole-building new construction, assess implications for modeling and program design

2015 CPUC IALC STUDIES

Study Title: Incentive Study -- Custom Measures Budget: $100,000 (subject to revision)

Completion Date: Q3 2016 Study Manager: CPUC staff

Description: Ex post assessment of customer incentive payments, given differences in ex ante and ex post conclusions for key impact estimation components, and appropriateness of ex ante cost data

Objective: Examine and report on ex post conclusions regarding discrepancy factors that lead to over- or under-payment of incentives

Key Research Questions: What can and should be done to correct incentive over- and under-payment

EM&V Methods: Mine previous ex post M&V data and reports, assess quality and accuracy of ex ante data and conclusions

2015 IOU STUDIES

Study Title: Benefits of Continuous Energy Improvement Practices – Under Review Budget: Under Review

Expected Completion Date: TBD Study Manager: SDG&EDescription: Study mid-size manufacturing companies who have a strong commitment to CEI to: 1) Understand the characteristics of the management’s values and goals 2) Understand the types of barriers when implementing CEI 3) Collect information on a company’s approach to CEI (in practices/in monitoring equipment) and whether the goal is realized (energy savings as well as any other non-energy benefits for the company).

Objective: Behavior studies in the residential market have demonstrated significant savings through

messaging and continual feedback on usage. This study will look into the possibility that a similar approach through continuous improvement practices in mid-size manufacturing companies can yield measureable benefits.

Key Research Questions: What motivates companies to engage in CEI? How do companies engage in CEI? Are companies’ goals achieved?Potential EM&V Methods: Literature review (within US) to identify the companies currently engaging in CEI and identify similarities in characteristics/values. Conduct a survey to measure a company’s satisfaction with CEI (more qualitative than quantitative).

2015 IOU STUDIES

Study Title: Data Center Market Characterization: Phase 2 Budget: $131,000 - Completed

Expected Completion Date: Q4 2015 Study Manager: PG&E

Description: Market characterization of the embedded data center space of telecom closets and rooms 5,000 sq-ft or less.

Objective: Estimate the savings potential of the embedded data center space by examining the end-user needs and

energy savings potential of various measures.

Key Research Questions: How many embedded data centers exist in PG&E territory? What data are necessary to conduct EDC audits for IT, power and HVAC? What qualifications are necessary to conduct audits? What is the calculation methodology for estimating energy savings in the EDC space?

Potential EM&V Methods: Interview and tracking data.

2015 IOU STUDIES

Study Title: Industry Standard Practice Budget: $89,000 – in progress

Expected Completion Date: Ongoing Study Manager: IOUs

Description: Continuation of 2013-2014 Cycle of Industry Standard Practice

Objective: To review and understand what is Industry Standard Practice in specific situations, providing

guidance to EE program implementers.

Key Research Questions: What is considered industry standard practice in various sectors?

Potential EM&V Methods: Interviews and secondary research.

2015 IOU STUDIES

Study Title: Measure Migration Study – Not started Budget: Under Review Expected Completion Date: Not started Study Manager: IOU

Description: The study will review the current process for identifying and transitioning measures from one portfolio area to another or to remove measures based on technical or policy drivers. Some examples include transitioning ET measures to core, transitioning ISP measures out of the portfolio or to C&S or even transitioning measures from one delivery method to another such as from custom to deemed or to some hybrid designation. Implications for Potential Studies and goals addressed.

Objective: Identify improvements to current processes for emerging technology and industry standard practice implementation.

Key Research Questions: How strong is the knowledge transfer between emerging technology results and programmatic changes including codes and standards?

Potential EM&V Methods: Data tracking and interviews.

2015 IOU STUDIES

Study Title: 2015 Measure, Application, Segments, Industry (MASI) Budget: $750,000 - Completed

Expected Completion Date: TBD Study Manager: IOUDescription: This research supports defining measure opportunities for nonresidential programs and will extend the 2013-2014 MASI research.

Objective: The MASI reports are intended should provide strong market research with facts based on real world research, not a summary of existing knowledge aggregated from existing studies. The reports should provide broad market perspectives, major trends, and roadmaps for the MASI’s. The research should provide a forward looking perspective (2016 and beyond), distinguishing

immediate and emerging needs while keeping in mind CPUC’s directions. The IOUs would view the MASI reports as the most definitive, up to date information on the

selected MASIs to inform program design. The research will also inform the next wave of industrial opportunity as CPUC is updating the

industrial chapter of the strategic plan, with a focus on energy management. The CPUC is also planning to update the agriculture chapter which this study may inform.

Key Research Questions: What are the current industry practices, current California initiatives, trends and impact of codes

and standards, barriers and key success factors and effective market strategies for the non-residential sector?

Potential EM&V Methods: Industry Standard Practice studies, secondary research and interviews.

2015 IOU STUDIES

Study Title: Market Based Incentives for Nonresidential Programs

Budget: $300,000 – (Scoped and carried over into 2016)

Expected Completion Date: TBD Study Manager: SCE

Description: The CPUC approached the IOUs to explore varying incentive rates. One example is by using locational DSM efforts which are based on varying avoided cost mechanisms. An examination of varying incentives to match varying avoided costs is therefore required.

Objective: Examine various scenarios for varying incentive rates.

Key Research Questions: How would using a locational Demand Side Management (DSM) method affect incentive

rates?

Potential EM&V Methods: Data tracking and interviews.

2016 IALC STUDIES

»2016 Evaluation and Information Needs »2016 EM&V Research Studies

»Research studies related to and evaluation of the 2016 Industrial, Agriculture and Large Commercial programs are being developed as of this update of the Research Roadmap. Descriptions of studies and budget allocations are preliminary and subject to change. Details will be made available in the next update of the Joint EM&V Plan.

2016 CPUC STUDIES

Study Title: Impact Study -- Custom Measures

Budget: TBD

Completion Date: Q1 2018 Study Manager: CPUC staff

Description: Ex post measurement and verification of program and measure impacts

Objective: Produce ex post gross and net savings estimates (kWh, kW and therms) for custom

measureClaims

Key Research Questions: What are the realized energy savings, load reductions and factors in drivingthe decision to install energy efficient equipment

EM&V Methods: Field measurement, desk review, impact modeling, decision maker surveys

2016 CPUC STUDIES

Study Title: Impact Study – Water Energy Programs

Budget: TBD

Completion Date: Q1 2018 Study Manager: CPUC staff

Description: Ex post measurement and verification of program and measure impactsObjective: Produce ex post gross and net savings estimates (kWh, kW and therms) for

water energy projects and programs

Key Research Questions: What are the realized direct and embedded energy savings from

water/energy projects and programs

EM&V Methods: Field measurement, desk review, impact modeling, decision maker surveys

2016 IOU STUDIES

Study Title: Market Based Incentives (MBI) For Nonresidential Programs Study Budget: $200,000 – Scoped (carryover from 2015)Completion Date: Q2 2016 Study Manager: SCEDescription: Policymakers and leadership of the ED and IOUs have asked various questions about how we take Demand Side Management (DSM) to the market. On the one hand, Energy Division has approached the IOUs to explore varying nonresidential incentive rates for custom EE projects as a mechanism to improve custom portfolio resource value. On the other hand, the integration of locational programs into current EE DSM portfolios has led procurement leaders on the IOU side to ask how and if market locations should influence the determination of incentive rates. The SONGS mitigation efforts is one case where generation reductions/constraints in a particular physical market may require varying incentive rates or alternative incentive structures. Objective: Understand and estimate the locational impact or requirements of variable incentives on customer program participation. Key Research Questions: How do the IOUs and the CPUC-ED take Demand-Side Management (DSM) to

the market? Do market locations influence the determination of incentive rates? If so, how? How should incentive regimes respond to market or measure conditions?EM&V Methods: Interviews, market studies

2016 IOU STUDIES

Study Title: Market Characterization Study (Food Processing, Hotel, and Restaurants) Budget: $100,000 – early scopingCompletion Date: Q1 2017 Study Manager: IOUsDescription: Estimate the market potential for the new energy efficient technologies and standards in food processing, hotels, and restaurants.Objective: Obtain market data that identified new opportunities for energy savings in the food processing,

hotel, restaurant sectors.Key Research Questions: What % of hotels are using Networked Energy Management Systems (NEMS)? What were the phases hotels took to deploy NEMS, which technologies were networked first and

in which order? What are the realized energy savings, load reductions and factors in driving the decision to install

energy efficient equipment? What if any types of software, SAAS, or data visualization tools are used to manage energy and

why? What are the features and key benefits?EM&V Methods: Decision maker surveys, market sector surveys

2016 IOU STUDIES

Study Title: Embedded Data Center Market Characterization: Phase 3 Budget: $100,000 - Scoped

Completion Date: Study Manager: PG&E

Description: Measurement and verification requirements for IT task scheduling and reservations in an embedded data center environment. The focus will be on engineering test labs, biotech and software

Objective: Calculate the potential for energy savings in embedded data centers in PG&E territory using reservations/task schedulers. Phase 3 is complementary to Phases 1 and 2 in that it identifies specific IT opportunities to save energy.

Key Research Questions: How many embedded data centers exist in PG&E territory?· What data are necessary to conduct EDC audits for IT, power and HVAC?· What qualifications are necessary to conduct audits?· What is the calculation methodology for estimating energy savings in the EDC space?

EM&V Methods: Field studies, IT monitoring via software

DISCUSSION