2015 Historical Market Data: Locational Marginal Prices ... · 2015 Historical Market Data: Locational Marginal Prices Interface MW Flows Planning Advisory Committee Meeting J A N

ISO-NE PUBLIC

David J. Ehrlich

S U P E R V I S O R , L O A D F O R E C A S T I N G

2015 Historical Market Data: Locational Marginal Prices Interface MW Flows

Planning Advisory Committee Meeting

J A N U A R Y 2 1 , 2 0 1 6 | M I L F O R D , M A

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• Average Real-time Locational Marginal Prices by subarea

– Hourly Dollar per MWh

– May have rounding and precision differences with Market Reports

• Internal Interfaces: Monthly Box Plots & Flow Duration Curves

– Percentage of Limit

• Percentages close to the limit may result from interface flows below the maximum due to conditions that reduce the transfer limit

• Market Information is summarized in other ISO-NE publications, such as the Annual Market Report : http://www.iso-ne.com/markets-operations/market-monitoring-mitigation/internal-monitor

• Presentation is meant to show general trends of real time data

– Anomalies within a trend are usually due to short-term events (for example, a generator or line outage)

• Real time data is subject to errors, missing data

Overview

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New England Subarea Model

NB

NH

BHEMES-ME

BOSTON

RI SEMACT

SW CTNOR

CMA/

NEMAW-MA

VT

NY

East - WestEast - West

Orring ton SouthOrring ton South

SurowiecSurowiec South SouthME - NHME - NH

North - SouthNorth - South

BostonBoston

SEMA/RISEMA/RI

SEMASEMA

NY - NENY - NE

South WestSouth West

CTCT

ConnecticutConnecticut

Norwalk - StamfordNorwalk - Stamford

NB - NENB - NE

HQ

High gate

High gate

Phase II

Phase II

CSCCSC

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• East – West • Maine – New Hampshire • Boston Import • SEMA/RI Export • Connecticut Import • Southwest CT Import • Norwalk – Stamford • North – South • Orrington South • Surowiec South • East to West CT • HQ Phase II • New Brunswick • New England-New York Cross Sound Cable • New England-New York Northport • New England-New York Rest of AC Ties

Box Plots & Duration Curves for Selected Interfaces

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• HQ Phase II, New Brunswick, and New York Ties Metered Hourly Net Flows can be found on ISONE website

– http://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/reports/grid/-/tree/external-interface-metered-data

• Limits for internal interfaces are calculated in real time by Internal Limit Calculator and are dynamic

• 2010 – 2014 Flows and Limits for internal interfaces now posted on ISO-NE website and 2015 will be posted soon

– http://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/reports/load-and-demand/-/tree/historical-hourly-flows-and-limits

Interface Notes

http://www.iso-ne.com/markets/mkt_anlys_rpts/index.html

































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Real-time Locational Marginal Price Summary

RSP Sub-areas and HUB Jan-Dec 2015

Mean:

Difference

Mean Std Dev Maximum Minimum from HUB

HUB 40.99 43.25 1041.38 -150.48 0.00

BHE 38.32 39.18 1012.20 -150.00 -2.67

ME 39.18 40.15 1024.43 -150.05 -1.81

SME 39.63 40.63 1025.37 -150.17 -1.36

NH 40.10 41.38 1036.61 -150.19 -0.89

VT 40.37 42.27 1044.91 -151.12 -0.62

BOSTON 41.56 44.33 1052.10 -150.20 0.57

CMA/NEMA 41.21 43.44 1047.23 -150.39 0.22

WMA 40.70 42.80 1041.83 -150.95 -0.29

SEMA 41.23 43.98 1043.35 -150.23 0.24

RI 41.04 43.45 1032.15 -150.34 0.05

CT 40.58 42.79 1040.68 -150.83 -0.41

SWCT 40.57 42.63 1052.80 -151.28 -0.42

NOR 40.58 42.67 1061.88 -151.42 -0.41

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Congestion Component of



Mean:

Difference


HUB 0.07 1.84 120.44 -36.00 0.00

BHE -0.75 6.36 23.92 -167.23 -0.82

ME -0.57 5.31 23.92 -142.91 -0.64

SME -0.56 5.39 23.92 -147.27 -0.63

NH -0.43 4.23 22.11 -140.94 -0.50

VT -0.22 2.03 4.13 -83.13 -0.29

BOSTON 0.33 3.36 117.20 -12.90 0.27

CMA/NEMA 0.06 1.77 62.15 -58.75 -0.01

WMA -0.03 1.00 12.58 -36.00 -0.10

SEMA 0.19 2.25 84.94 -36.00 0.13

RI 0.15 1.82 56.04 -36.00 0.09

CT -0.05 1.60 15.77 -97.23 -0.12

SWCT -0.03 1.72 56.33 -93.94 -0.10

NOR -0.04 1.69 56.58 -92.28 -0.11

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Marginal Loss Component of



Mean:

Difference


HUB 0.16 0.38 3.73 -2.28 0.00

BHE -1.70 2.98 11.58 -35.30 -1.86

ME -1.02 2.08 6.07 -21.76 -1.18

SME -0.57 1.45 3.24 -18.00 -0.73

NH -0.24 0.78 8.01 -7.47 -0.40

VT -0.18 0.61 4.69 -11.77 -0.34

BOSTON 0.46 0.71 9.26 -2.93 0.30

CMA/NEMA 0.38 0.61 6.18 -2.31 0.22

WMA -0.05 0.53 4.59 -10.14 -0.21

SEMA 0.27 0.77 7.86 -1.92 0.11

RI 0.12 0.63 6.12 -11.22 -0.04

CT -0.14 0.55 3.59 -7.16 -0.30

SWCT -0.17 0.95 9.43 -11.17 -0.33

NOR -0.15 1.11 18.51 -11.19 -0.31

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Average Real-time Locational Marginal PricesRSP Sub-areas and HUB

2004 HUB:$52.12 2005 HUB:$76.64 2006 HUB:$59.67 2007 HUB:$66.71 2008 HUB:$80.55 2009 HUB:$42.01


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Average RT Locational Marginal Prices: Congestion ComponentRSP Sub-areas Differences From HUB



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Average RT Locational Marginal Prices:Marginal Loss ComponentRSP Sub-areas Differences From HUB



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ISO-NE Monthly Average RT Locational Marginal Prices at HUB

2015 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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• The New York-New England interface runs along the border between the New England Control Area and the New York Control Area. This interface is shown as (1) the Cross Sound Cable-central CT to Long Island, (2) Northport-Norwalk CT to Long Island, and (3) the rest of the AC lines. A positive sign on the data indicates power flow from New England to New York.

• The East-West interface runs south from northern Vermont, through central Massachusetts, and through Connecticut just west of the Rhode Island border. A positive sign on the data indicates power flow from East to West.

• The Maine-New Hampshire interface runs across part of southern Maine. A positive sign on the data indicates power flow from Maine to New Hampshire.

• The BOSTON import interface surrounds the northeastern area of Massachusetts, from the NH/MA border to just south of Boston. A positive sign indicates power flow into NEMA/BOSTON from the rest of New England.

Interface Details

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• The Southeastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island (SEMA/RI) export interface surrounds Massachusetts south of Boston and all of the state of Rhode Island. The western edge of the interface is the same as parts of the East-West and BOSTON import interfaces. A positive sign on the data indicates power flow into the rest of New England from SEMA/RI.

• The Southwest Connecticut import interface surrounds the southwestern corner of Connecticut. A positive sign indicates power flow into southwest Connecticut.

• The Norwalk-Stamford interface surrounds the extreme southwestern portion of southwest Connecticut, and lies within the Southwest Connecticut import interface. A positive sign indicates power flow into the region.

Interface Details, cont.

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• The North - South interface runs across the southern borders of New Hampshire and Vermont, dividing the ISO-NE area into two separate three-state regions. A positive sign on the data indicates power flow from North to South.

• The Orrington South interface separates the areas north and east of Bangor from the rest of Maine. A positive sign indicates a southwest power flow towards Portland.

• The Surowiec South interface is just northeast of Portland, and lies across the lines going southwest from Maine Yankee, roughly separating southern ME from the rest of the state. A positive sign indicates power flow into the S-ME subarea.

• The New Brunswick interface connects New England to the Maritimes. A positive sign indicates power flow from New England to the Maritimes.

• The HQ Phase II interface connects New England to the Hydro Quebec System. A positive sign indicates power flow from New England to HQ.


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• The East to West CT interface is generally west of the Connecticut river, excluding the Hartford area. A positive sign on the data indicates power flow from East to West.

• On-peak hours are defined as non-holiday weekdays from 8 AM to 11 PM.

• For a technical description of the interfaces see the “Generic Interface Constraints” spreadsheet at:

– p://www.iso-ne.com/markets/hrly_data/support_docs/generic_interface_constraints.xls


http://www.iso-ne.com/markets/hrly_data/support_docs/generic_interface_constraints.xls




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• The Connecticut Import interface surrounds most of the state of Connecticut. A positive sign indicates power flow into Connecticut from the rest of New England. In June 2015 changes were made that brought the Lake Road Generators into the CT load zone. See a presentation given to the RC at:

• http://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/committees/comm_wkgrps/relblty_comm/relblty/mtrls/2013/jul22232013/a11_ct_transfer_limits.pdf

• The data for the second half of the year was not available to me in time for this presentation, so the CT Import interface plots are not included in this presentation.


http://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/committees/comm_wkgrps/relblty_comm/relblty/mtrls/2013/jul22232013/a11_ct_transfer_limits.pdf






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Boxplot Key Far Outliers (*)

75th Percentile (3rd Quartile)

Mean

Near Outliers (o)

Near Outliers (o)

Median (50th Percentile)

25th Percentile (1st Quartile)

1st Quartile-IQR

3rd Quartile+IQR

3*IQR

Interquartile Range (IQR) = Middle 50% of Distribution

3*IQR

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Maine-New Hampshire Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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Maine-New Hampshire Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow as % of Interface LimitJanuary - December 2015

OFFPEAK HOURS ONPEAK HOURS

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Boston Import Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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Boston Import Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow as % of Interface LimitJanuary - December 2015


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Norwalk-Stamford Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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Norwalk-Stamford Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow as % of Interface LimitJanuary - December 2015


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Southwest CT Import Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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Southwest CT Import Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow as % of Interface LimitJanuary - December 2015


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SEMA/RI Export Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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SEMA/RI Export Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015


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East-West Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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East-West Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow as % of Interface LimitJanuary - December 2015


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Surowiec South Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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Surowiec South Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015


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Orrington South Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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Orrington South Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015


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North-South Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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North-South Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow as % of Interface LimitJanuary - December 2015


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HQ Phase II Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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New Brunswick Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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New Brunswick Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015


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NE-NY Cross Sound Cable Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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NE-NY Northport Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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NE-NY Northport Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015


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NE-NY Rest of AC Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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East to West CT Interface Duration Curve: Net Flow MWsJanuary - December 2015

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• The small Congestion Component of the Locational Marginal Prices suggests there is little congestion on the system.

• In general, interface flows operate closer to the limit on peak as opposed to off peak

• Portions of the system that are remote from load centers, especially northern ME, have high negative loss components

Observations

2015 Historical Market Data: Locational Marginal Prices ... · 2015 Historical Market Data: Locational Marginal Prices Interface MW Flows Planning Advisory Committee Meeting J A N

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