2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
Risk of premature obsolescence d t d hi d t h l i l hdue to demographic and technological changes
Percent of Members' Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mid/Hi‐Rise Apartments
WarehouseWarehouse
CBD Office
Garden Apartments
Regional Malls
Hotel
Strip Retail Centers
Suburban Office
L Ri k M d t Ri k Hi h Ri kLow Risk Moderate Risk High Risk
Expected changes in cap rates by year‐end 2015p g p y y
Percent of Members' Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Office
Warehouse
lRetail
Hotel
Multifamily
M h L Sli htl L N Ch Sli htl Hi h M h Hi hMuch Lower Slightly Lower No Change Slightly Higher Much Higher
When China may become the largest sourcef l t t it l i t tof real estate capital investment
Percent of Members' Votes0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
When, if ever, do you anticipate that China will become the l t f l t t it l i t t i t USA llargest source of real estate capital investment into USA real
estate?
2014 or 2015 2016 or Beyond Not Likely to Happen2014 or 2015 2016 or Beyond Not Likely to Happen
Are Chinese capital inflows cyclicalt j it lor a permanent major capital source
Percent of Members' Votes0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Do you think the recent surge in investment from China is more likely a short‐term surge or cyclical inflow, as we have
f th t i i th t th b i iseen from many other countries in the past, or the beginning of a long period of high investment volumes from China into
the USA?
Short term or Cyclical Inflow Long term Permanent Inflow No OpinionShort‐term or Cyclical Inflow Long‐term Permanent Inflow No Opinion
Expected first increase in interest ratesp
Percent of Members' Votes0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
When do you expect the y pfirst increase in interest rates?
2015 2016 2017 2018 or Beyond2015 2016 2017 2018 or Beyond
Changes in perspective on USA real estate marketsg p p
80%
60%
70%
Votes
40%
50%
of M
embe
rs' V
10%
20%
30%
Percent o
0%
10%
More Pessimistic About the Same More Optimistic
2013 20142013 2014
Country providing the most stable and securel t t i t treal estate investments
70%
50%
60%
Votes
30%
40%
of M
embe
rs' V
10%
20%
Percent o
0%USA Germany UK Canada Switzerland
2010 2011 2012 2013 20142010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Country providing the best opportunity f it l i tifor capital appreciation
70%
50%
60%
Votes
30%
40%
of M
embe
rs' V
10%
20%
Percent o
0%USA Spain UK China Brazil Mexico Netherlands
2010 2011 2012 2013 20142010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ranking of global cities for real estate investmentg g
35%
25%
30%
ore
15%
20%
ent o
f Total Sc
5%
10%Perce
0%New York London San
FranciscoTokyo Madrid Houston Berlin Sydney Shanghai
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point to third choice.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ranking of USA cities for real estate investmentg
40%
30%
35%
ore
15%
20%
25%
cnt o
f Total Sc
5%
10%
15%
Perec
0%New York San
FranciscoHouston Los Angeles Washington
DCAtlanta Boston Chicago Seattle
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point to third choice.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ranking of USA property types, by yearg p p y yp , y y
4.5
3 0
3.5
4.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
Mean Score
1.0
1.5
M
0.0
0.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial
The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent’s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.
Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial
Ranking of USA property types, by property typeg p p y yp , y p p y yp
4.5
3 0
3.5
4.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
Mean Score
1.0
1.5
M
0.0
0.5
Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent’s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mean real estate portfolio sizesp
$25
$20
$15
$ Billion
s
19.6
$
$10US$
7.3
$0
$5
Global USA
Real estate portfolio geographic distributionp g g p
Percent of Members' Portfolios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
USA
Europe
C dCanada
Asia Pacific
Latin America
>75% Allocation 25% 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation>75% Allocation 25% ‐ 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation
Planned changes to the size of portfoliosg p
Percent of Members' Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
USA
Latin America
Europep
Canada
Asia Pacific
MajorNet Increase
ModestIncrease
Maintain orRein est
Modest Decrease
Major NetDecreaseNet Increase Increase Reinvest Decrease Decrease
Allocation of portfolios by investment strategy or stylep y gy y
Percent of Members' Portfolios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Core
Value Add
Opportunistic
Other
>75% Allocation 25% 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation>75% Allocation 25% ‐ 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation
Planned changes to investment strategy or styleg gy y
Percent of Members' Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Core
Value Add
OpportunisticOpportunistic
Major NetIncrease
ModestIncrease
Maintain orRein est
Modest Decrease
Major NetDecreaseIncrease Increase Reinvest Decrease Decrease
Ranking of countries for real estate acquisitions:2014 ti d 2015 l2014 executions and 2015 plans
Percent of Total Score0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
USA
UKUK
Germany
France
Canada
Japan
Australia
China
2014 Executions 2015 Plans
The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point for the third choice.
2014 Executions 2015 Plans
Ranking of emerging countries considered f l t t i itifor real estate acquisitions
Percent of Total Vote0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Brazil
China
Mexico
Chile
Poland
Colombia
India
Czech Republic
2013 Plans (from 2012 s r e )
2014 Plans (from 2013 s r e )
2015 Plans (from c rrent s r e )
Each member was allowed to mention up to 6 countries. All mentions are counted equally to add up to the score of the country.
(from 2012 survey) (from 2013 survey) (from current survey)
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