2014 Economic Outlook 19 th annual survey

2014 Economic Outlook

19th annual survey

Fielded December 2-5, 2013

1,003 Canada-wide online interviews (margin of error for a probability sample of this size: ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)

11%

3%

17%

74%

19%

51%

62%

53%

12%3% 8%7%

9%

4% 3% 3% 5%3%

27%

44%

63%

56%

61%

33%

64%

23% 21%25%

40% 40%39%

25%

29%

17%

12%

55%52%55%49%

5%

1% 1%0% 0%

4% 5%9% 11%15%

0% 0%2%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Severe recession Mild recession Moderate growth Strong growth

Which of the following best describes how you feel about Canada’s economy? Is the economy in a severe recession, a mild recession, a period of moderate growth, or a period of strong growth?

Perceptions of Canada’s Economy: Just over half (52%) believe Canada is still in recession

85%

36%

14%22%

52%54%

26% 28%26%

44%

91%

78%

65%

70%65%

41%40%

53%

60%

71%67% 66%

6%17%

29%

25%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Recession

Growth

Which of the following best describes how you feel about Canada’s economy? Is the economy in a severe recession, a mild recession, a period of moderate growth, or a period of strong growth?

Perceptions of Canada’s Economy: 6th consecutive year majority of Canadians feel we’re in recession

[IF RECESSION] How much longer do you expect the current recession to last for?

Expected Duration of Recession: Only 23% expect recession to end in 2014

19%

19%

14%

25%

19%4%

6 Months or Less

7 Months to a Year

13 Months to 18 Months

Don’t Know

Over 2 Years

19 Months to 2 Years

Perceived Personal Financial Situation: Majority are holding their own, but just 17% “getting ahead”

Thinking of your overall financial situation, over the past few years, would you say you are getting ahead, holding your own or losing ground?

52%

55% 57%48%

51%47%

45%42%

46%42%

45%45%

26%

17%18%20%18%

24%

17%16%

21% 21% 23%

25%

18%

24%

33%

27%32%

27%36%

34%33%33%

20%

39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Holding your ownGetting aheadLosing ground

Household Income vs. Cost of Living: Increase from last year in the number falling behind the cost of living

45%

41%

51%50%49%48%

42%41%

47%44%

42%

55%

44%

49%

37%

50%

43%

45%

51%

38%39%44%

48%47%49%

48%

41%42%

47%

29%

37%

45%

42%

35%

32%

50%

35%

9%8%

9%8%

10%

8%

10% 11%

9%11%

12%

8% 9%8%

8%

12%

10%6%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Keep paceFall behindMore than keep pace

Do you think that your household income this year will more than keep pace with the cost of living, keep pace with it, or fall behind the cost of living?

And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to improve, worsen, or not change:

Expectations for the Next 12 Months: Outlook for Canada’s economy more positive than for US or Global economy

16% 35% 36% 13%

21% 31% 39% 9%

19% 37% 22% 21%

26% 43% 23% 8%

32% 45% 16% 7%

Improve Not Change Worsen Don't Know

Canada's Economy

Canada's Employment Situation

The Stock Market

The United States Economy

The Global Economy

And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to improve, worsen, or not change: Canada’s Economy

Expectations for Canada’s Economy: Optimists outnumber pessimists, but outlook less upbeat than this time last year

30%

45%

19%

7%

31%

26%

35%

8%

20%

17%

57%

6%

54%

27%

14%5%

38%

36%

19%

6%

25%

40%

27%

7%

36%

46%

15%3%

32%

45%

16%7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20142013201220112010200920082007

Improve Not Change Worsen Don't Know

And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to improve, worsen, or not change: Canada’s Employment Situation

Expectations for Canada’s Employment Situation: Similar number expect it to worsen and improve over next year

31%

40%

21%

8%

26%

28%

38%

8%

12%

14%

68%

7%

43%

30%

22%

6%

31%

38%

25%

6%

20%

39%

35%

7%

31%

44%

21%

4%

26%

43%

23%

8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20142013201220112010200920082007

Improve Not Change Worsen Don't Know

And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to increase, decrease, or not change:

Economic Expectations for Next 12 Months: Majority expect debt, taxes, and inflation to increase

17% 40% 33% 10%

60% 28% 3% 9%

61% 28% 5% 6%

55% 26% 11% 8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Increase Not Change Decrease Don't Know/Refused

Canada's National Debt

Taxes

Inflation

The Value of the Canadian Dollar

34%

25%

22%22%

25%

31%

19%19%

22%

16%

24%

23%

29%

22%

28%

19%

23%27%

32%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% who believe that it is either “somewhat or very likely they or someone in their household may lose his/her job in the next 12 months”

How likely do you think it is that you or a member of your immediate family may lose his or her job in the next twelve months?

Likelihood of Job Loss in Next 12 Months: Fear of job loss is higher than at any point over past 19 years

www.pollara.comwww.pollara.com

Dan ArnoldAssociate Vice President, Public Affairs

[email protected]

416.921.0090 Ext. 2220