2013 Water Quality Assessment Update

2013 Water Quality

Assessment Update

Ed SherwoodTampa Bay Estuary Program

263 13th Ave. SouthSt. Petersburg, FL 33701

Annual Decision Support Process

• Annual report card for Tampa Bay

• Specific to each of the 4 major bay segments

• Provides for adaptive management of a sentinel estuarine indicator (seagrass)

Reduce Nitrogen

Loads

Reduce Chloro-

phyll

IncreaseWaterClarity

IncreaseSea-grassCover

FDEP Recognized Site Specific Thresholds for Chlorophyll-a to Maintain Tampa Bay

Reasonable Assurance

• Hillsborough Bay: 15.0 ug/L

• Old Tampa Bay: 9.3 ug/L

• Middle Tampa Bay: 8.5 ug/L

• Lower Tampa Bay: 5.1 ug/L

If any one bay segment exceeds these values in 2 straight years, then additional compliance assessment steps are required by the TBNMC and TBEP.

Bay Segment MeetingFDEP Threshold?

Bay Segment

Chlorophyll-a(ug/L)

2013Average

FDEP RA Thresholds

Old Tampa Bay 8.7 9.3

Hillsborough Bay 12.9 15.0

Middle Tampa Bay 6.8 8.5

Lower Tampa Bay 3.9 5.1

Year Old Tampa Bay

Hills. Bay

Mid. Tampa Bay

Lower Tampa Bay

1975 No No No Yes

1976 No No No Yes

1977 No No No No

1978 No No No Yes

1979 No No No No

1980 No No No No

1981 No No No No

1982 No No No No

1983 No No No No

1984 Yes Yes No Yes

1985 No No No Yes

1986 No No Yes Yes

1987 No Yes No Yes

1988 Yes Yes Yes Yes

1989 No Yes Yes Yes

1990 No Yes Yes Yes




1994 No No No No

1995 No No No Yes



1998 No No No No





2003 No Yes Yes Yes

2004 No Yes Yes Yes

2005 Yes Yes Yes No




2009 No Yes Yes Yes


2011 No Yes Yes Yes



Chlorophyll-a

Summary of Results• Water quality in Tampa Bay continues to be

within management targets & regulatory thresholds; chlorophyll-a and water clarity conditions are supporting seagrass expansion in the 4 main bay segments.

• Seagrass acreage in Tampa Bay continues to increase, next update anticipated in early 2015.

• Work continues on developing the integrated model for OTB; 2012 RA Update Accepted by FDEP in April 2013

Questions?

Science-Based Assessment

• Rely on long-term ambient water quality stations sampled by EPCHC

• 45 fixed stations have been monitored since 1974

• Annual averages developed from chlorophyll-a & secchi disk depth measurements

Management Framework• Bay segment annual

average values compared to established bay segment targets for chlorophyll-a and water clarity

• Results of each comparison placed into decision matrix framework

• Overall management response determined for each bay segment

Green

“Stay the course;” partners continue with planned projects to implement the CCMP. Data summary and reporting via the

Baywide Environmental Monitoring Report and annual assessment and progress reports.

Yellow

TAC and Management Board on caution alert; review monitoring data and loading estimates; attempt to identify causes of

target exceedences; TAC report to Management Board on findings and recommended responses needed.

Red

TAC, Management and Policy Boards on alert; review and report by TAC to Management Board on recommended types of

responses. Management and Policy Boards take appropriate actions to get the program back on track.

Light Attenuation

YearOld Tampa

BayHills. Bay

Mid. TampaBay

LowerTampaBay

1976 Red Red Red Yellow

1977 Red Red Red Red






1983 Red Yellow Red Red

1984 Red Green Red Yellow


1986 Red Yellow Red Green

1987 Red Yellow Red Green

1988 Yellow Green Yellow Green

1989 Red Yellow Red Yellow

1990 Red Green Red Yellow

1991 Green Yellow Yellow Yellow

1992 Yellow Green Yellow Yellow


1994 Yellow Yellow Red Red

1995 Red Yellow Red Yellow

1996 Yellow Green Yellow Green

1997 Yellow Green Red Yellow



2000 Green Green Yellow Yellow


2002 Yellow Green Green Green

2003 Red Yellow Green Yellow

2004 Red Green Green Yellow

2005 Green Green Yellow Yellow

2006 Green Green Green Green


2008 Yellow Green Green Yellow

2009 Yellow Yellow Green Green


2011 Red Green Yellow Green



BaySeg-ment

Chlorophyll-a(ug/L)

LightAttenuation (m-1) Resulting

Manage-ment

Response2013TBEPTarget

2013TBEPTarget

Old TB

8.7* 8.5 0.57 0.83 Green

Hills.Bay

12.9 13.2 0.99 1.58 Green

Mid.TB

6.8 7.4 0.57 0.83 Green

LowerTB

3.9 4.6 0.45 0.63 Green

2013 Results

*Less than a small magnitude exceedence

Additional Background Slides

2012 & 2013 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution





Questions?

Tampa Bay Chl-a (2007-2012)

• Significant Pyrodinium blooms occurred in the summer of 2008, 2009 and 2010

2010 Seagrass Estimates

• All TB segments showed increased acreage

• Upper bay segments still have room to “grow”

TBEP Nitrogen Management Strategy

Reduce Nitrogen

Loads

Reduce Chloro-

phyll

ReduceLightAtten-uation

Sea-grass

Recover

Slope = 428 acres/yr

Slope = 660 acres/yr

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Se

ag

ras

s A

cre

ag

e (

1,0

00

's o

f a

cre

s) Initial Estimate (Worst Case)

Previous Decade

Recent

Tampa Bay Seagrass Recovery Goal (38, 000 acres)

298 acres/yr

660 acres/yr

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Sea

gra

ss C

ove

r (a

cres

x 1

,000

)

Observed Seagrass Coverage

Tampa Bay Seagrass Coverage Goal (38,000 acres)

Reducing Nitrogen Loads

• Tampa Bay Nitrogen Management Consortium formed in 1996

• Collectively accepted responsibility to reduce TN loads to Tampa Bay

• TN loads are capped at levels appropriate to maintain bay water quality for seagrass expansion

ReduceNitrogenLoads

TBEP Nitrogen Management Strategy

Reduce Nitrogen

Loads

Reduce Chloro-

phyll

ReduceLightAtten-uation

2006: First-time All Segments Meet

TBEP Management Targets

Sea-grass

Recover

1998: NMC Partnership Formed to “Hold the Line”

1996-2009: NMC Projects Preclude >430t N / yr

2010: RA Accepted & Adopted by FDEP, N Load Allocations Voluntarily &Proactively Developed

2011+ : Demonstrating RA Compliance& Providing Input on Criteria Development

2012: RA Update Completed!

Management Framework• Bay segment annual

average values compared to established bay segment targets for chlorophyll-a and light attenuation

• Results of each comparison placed into decision matrix framework

• Overall management response determined for each bay segment

Green

“Stay the course;” partners continue with planned projects to implement the CCMP. Data summary and reporting via the

Baywide Environmental Monitoring Report and annual assessment and progress reports.

Yellow

TAC and Management Board on caution alert; review monitoring data and loading estimates; attempt to identify causes of

target exceedences; TAC report to Management Board on findings and recommended responses needed.

Red

TAC, Management and Policy Boards on alert; review and report by TAC to Management Board on recommended types of

responses. Management and Policy Boards take appropriate actions to get the program back on track.

2011 Chlorophyll-a Temporal Distribution

2011 Kd (Light Attenuation) Temporal Distribution

Observed Seagrass Gains & Losses

2001-2004 2004-2006

2006-2008

Observed Seagrass Gains & Losses

2008-2010

2013 Water Quality Assessment Update

Documents

tampa bay specific

uglold tampa bay

uglmiddle tampa bay

ugllower tampa bay

bay segment greenstay

major bay segments

main bay segments

management board