2013 ABFM Annual Conference (September 17th DRAFT) Page 1 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3RD 7:30am-5pm Registraon Registraon Desk, Dupont Foyer, 2nd Floor 7:30-9am Connental Breakfast Dupont Foyer, 2nd Floor 8:30-10am Concurrent Sessions State Budgeng and Fiscal Sustainability Georgetown II Chair / Discussant: Boris Morozov, Louisiana State University Baselines and State Budget Growth Carolyn Bourdeaux & Laura McGuffey, Georgia State University The Impact of Agency Mission on Agency Budget Strategy in State Governments Changhwan Mo, Korea Transport Instute & Jonathan Jusce, University of Delaware Separate or Unified Budgets: The Case of Georgia Il Hwan Chung, Baruch College, City University of New York & Phuong Nguyen-Hoang, University of Iowa Fiscal Sustainability in the American States: Learning from the Past, Understanding the Future Marilyn Marks Rubin, John Jay College, City University of New York ZBB Redux in Georgia Thomas P. Lauth, The University of Georgia Health and Welfare Spending Salon F Chair: Beverly Bunch, University of Illinois-Springfield Analysis of the Changing Landscape of Revenues for An-Poverty Agencies Beverly Bunch, University of Illinois-Springfield Food Safety Policy and Resource Constraints: The Diffusion of Regulaon Jocelyn M. Johnston & Rebecca Yurman, American University Demographic Change and Public Expenditure: The Crowding-In Effects Of Populaon Aging On Social Welfare Expenditure for the Elderly in Japan: 1980-2010 Yimin Chang, University of Kentucky Paying for Educaon: The Determinants of the Allocaon of Resources to K-12 Schools and Post-Secondary Instuons Salon G Chair / Discussant: Eugenia F. Toma, University of Kentucky Ethnic Homogeneity, Group Antagonism, and State Financial Support for Higher Educaon John Foster, Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville & Jacob Fowles, University of Kansas Idenfying Policy Movaons of Performance Funding Adopon in Higher Educaon Douglas Carr & Roger Larocca, Oakland University Charter School Capital Finance: An Examinaon of Charter School Bond Issuance and Interest Costs Peter Jones, University of Kentucky Tax-Based Aid Expansion, College Enrollment, and College Choice Tatyana Guzman, Cleveland State University, Haeil Jung & Maureen Pirog, Indiana University
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2013 ABFM Agenda Schedule - September 17, 2013 Update
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State Budgeting and Fiscal Sustainability Georgetown II
Chair / Discussant: Boris Morozov, Louisiana State University
Baselines and State Budget Growth
Carolyn Bourdeaux & Laura McGuffey, Georgia State University
The Impact of Agency Mission on Agency Budget Strategy in State Governments
Changhwan Mo, Korea Transport Institute & Jonathan Justice, University of Delaware
Separate or Unified Budgets: The Case of Georgia
Il Hwan Chung, Baruch College, City University of New York & Phuong Nguyen-Hoang, University of Iowa
Fiscal Sustainability in the American States: Learning from the Past, Understanding the Future
Marilyn Marks Rubin, John Jay College, City University of New York
ZBB Redux in Georgia
Thomas P. Lauth, The University of Georgia
Health and Welfare Spending Salon F
Chair: Beverly Bunch, University of Illinois-Springfield
Analysis of the Changing Landscape of Revenues for Anti-Poverty Agencies
Beverly Bunch, University of Illinois-Springfield
Food Safety Policy and Resource Constraints: The Diffusion of Regulation
Jocelyn M. Johnston & Rebecca Yurman, American University
Demographic Change and Public Expenditure: The Crowding-In Effects Of Population Aging On Social Welfare Expenditure for the Elderly in Japan: 1980-2010
Yimin Chang, University of Kentucky
Paying for Education: The Determinants of the Allocation of Resources to K-12 Schools and Post-Secondary Institutions
Salon G
Chair / Discussant: Eugenia F. Toma, University of Kentucky
Ethnic Homogeneity, Group Antagonism, and State Financial Support for Higher Education
John Foster, Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville & Jacob Fowles, University of Kansas
Identifying Policy Motivations of Performance Funding Adoption in Higher Education
Douglas Carr & Roger Larocca, Oakland University
Charter School Capital Finance: An Examination of Charter School Bond Issuance and Interest Costs
Peter Jones, University of Kentucky
Tax-Based Aid Expansion, College Enrollment, and College Choice
Tatyana Guzman, Cleveland State University, Haeil Jung & Maureen Pirog, Indiana University
Strategic Budgetary Choices in Iraq: The Long Post-Conflict Struggle for Political and Economic Development
James Savage, University of Virginia
Sovereign Wealth Funds in OECD Countries
John B Gilmour, College of William & Mary
The Effects of Financial Crisis under Keynesian Theory in OECD Countries
Ju-Ying Yang, University of Illinois at Chicago
City's Budget, A look at the City Council of Nairobi
Obuya Bagaka, Kenya Institute of Administration & Clarence Otieno, Kenyan Government
Cutback Management and the Recession Salon G
Chair: Thomas P. Lauth, The University of Georgia
Discussant: Skip Krueger, University of North Texas
An Examination of the Economic Downturn: Changes in State Expenditures and Lessons Learned
Brian Sigritz and Michael Streepey, National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO)
The Public Financing of America’s Largest Cities: An Autopsy of City Financial Records in the Wake of the Great Recession
Craig L. Johnson & Justin Ross, Indiana University & Wenli Yan, Virginia Commonwealth University
Cutback Management and Incrementalism in Large American Cities, 1964 to 2006
Jae Young Lim, University of Georgia
Federal Budgeting for Short-Term Fiscal Uncertainty
Marvin Phaup & Imtiaz Bhatti, George Washington University
State and Local Earmarks: Counterparts of Congressional Earmarks?
Yonghong Wu, University of Illinois at Chicago & Daniel W. Williams, Baruch College-City University of New York
The Recession and Property Taxes Salon H
Chair: Craig Maher, Northern Illinois University
Discussant: Rui Sun, California State University, Dominguez Hills
Structural / Institutional Determinants of Variations in Household Property Tax Burdens and Effective Tax Rates Within and Across Local Governments: The Effect of the Great Recession and Beyond
John L. Mikesell, Indiana University & Daniel R. Mullins, American University
What Happens to Assessment Limits when Property Values Decline?
Catherine F. Collins, George Washington Institute of Public Policy
House Prices and Property Tax Revenues: Evidence from Small-Area Estimates
Christopher B. Goodman, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Chair: Michael A. Pagano, University of Illinois at Chicago
The Fiscal Policy Space: A Comprehensive Framework for City Fiscal Decision-making
Michael A. Pagano & Yonghong Wu, University of Illinois at Chicago & Christopher Hoene, California Budget Project
Locally Imposed Limits: The Rise of the New TEL
Samuel Bassett, University of Illinois at Chicago & Christopher Hoene, California Budget Project
Effects of State-Imposed Constraints on Municipal Revenue: The Mediating Role of Alternative Revenue Sources
Shu Wang & Michael A. Pagano, University of Illinois at Chicago
Testing the Links Between the Consideration and Adoption of Fiscal Policy Actions to the State Attribute and to the Local Attribute in “Fiscal Policy Space” of Cities
Yu Shi & Nisa Yazici Aydemir, University of Illinois at Chicago
Local Managers Perceptions of Recent Changes to Governmental Financial Statements
Craig S. Maher & Shannon Sohl, Northern Illinois University
Improved Financial Reporting for Other Postemployment Benefits by State and Local Governments
Kevin M. Bronner, University at Albany, The State University of New York
A Decade of Single Audits: Differential Results from the Public Sector
Tammy R. Waymire & Timothy D. West, Northern Illinois University & Thomas Z. Webb, Mississippi State University
How Pervasive are the Effects of Transaction Costs? Analyzing Cost Drivers in Cost Accounting
Zachary Mohr, University of North Carolina-Charlotte
Adapt & Advance: Understanding the next steps in your public finance practitioner or academic career (Roundtable)
Salon G
Chair: Kenneth Hunter, City of Rocky Mount, North Carolina
Panelists: Evie Barry, Association of Government Accountants; Thad Calbrese, New York University & Melissa Merrell, Congressional Budget Office and George Washington University
Empirical Evidence on Tax Policy Salon H
Chair: Justin M. Ross, Indiana University
Discussant: Whitney Afonso, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Tax Exemptions for Charitable Organizations: How Are They Capitalized into Residential Property Values?
Deborah A. Carroll, University of Georgia
Capital Input Taxes and Labor Employment: Empirical Evidence from the Retail Sales Taxation of Manufacturing Machinery and Equipment
Justin M. Ross & John L. Mikesell, Indiana University
Conflicting Theories of Democratic Reform: Evidence from State E-Commerce Tax Reform
Sarah Larson, Indiana University
Behavioral Frameworks of Property Tax Determination
Spencer T. Brien, Arizona State University
Dimensions of Public Pension Plan Management & Policy Meeting Room 3017
Chair / Discussant: Justin Marlowe, University of Washington
How Well Does the Risk-Free Rate Predict the Future Rate of Return on Investments? Implications for Public Defined-Benefit Pension Plans
Kenneth A. Kriz, Wichita State University & Gang Chen, University at Albany-State University of New York
From Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution Plans for Public Employees: Results and Lessons from Michigan
Michael Thom, University of Southern California
The Public Pension Problem: A Case Study
Carol Ebdon & Paul Landow, University of Nebraska at Omaha
A Simulation of Defined-Benefit Pension Plans: What Features are the Most Important?
Gang Chen & David Matkin, University at Albany-State University of New York
The Credit Threat of Public Pension Funding on State Credit Ratings
Discussant: Beverly Bunch, University of Illinois-Springfield
Borrowing for Good: The Use of Tax-Exempt Debt by Public Charities
Thad Calabrese, New York University & Todd Ely, University of Colorado, Denver
Through the Analyst’s Looking Glass: Nonprofit Influence on Budget Outcomes
Sarah Beth Gehl, Georgia State University
State of Nonprofit Finance Research: Problems or Opportunities?
Alicia Schatteman & Tammy Waymire, Northern Illinois University
“Crowding Out” or “Crowding In”? -- An Analysis of Private Contributions and Government Grants in Housing Nonprofits
Janey Wang & Jennifer Shea, San Francisco State University
Forecasting Issues & Trends Salon F
Chair: Jane Beckett-Camarata, Penn State University-Harrisburg
A “Dirty” Approach to Efficient Budget Forecasting
Bruce McDonald, III, Indiana University South Bend
State Revenue Forecasting Practices in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
Jane Beckett-Camarata, Penn State University-Harrisburg
The Value of Consensus Forecasting for Producing a Binding Revenue Baseline: An Indiana Case Study
John L. Mikewell & Justin Ross, Indiana University
State Budget Priorities Following the Recession Salon G
Chair / Discussant: Odd Stalebrink, Penn State University
US Sub-national Governmental Response to the Financial Crisis: Implications for the “Equitable Distribution of the Costs and Benefits of Public Services”
Blue Wooldridge, Virginia Commonwealth University & Heidi Jane Smith, International Consultant
After the Fall: Governors and State Budget Priorities following the Great Recession
Katherine Willoughby, Georgia State University
Price Tags or Guesstimates? Fiscal Notes in Illinois
Nancy Hudspeth, University of Illinois, Chicago
“It’s always something” Actions and Reactions to Budget Balancing in Maryland
Warren Deschenaux & David B. Juppe, Maryland General Assembly
Transportation, Infrastructure Finance & Public Utility Georgetown II
Chair: Wie Yusuf, Old Dominion University
Discussant: John Bartle, University of Nebraska-Omaha
Fiscal Brownout: Potential Impacts of Enterprise Fund Regulation on Eastern North Carolina’s “Electricities”
Kenneth Hunter, City of Rocky Mount, North Carolina
The Politics of Energy Budgeting: Forecasting Severance Taxes amidst Economic Growth, Environmental Sustainability and Market Volatility in the US States
Michael Brogan, Rider University & Charles Tien, City University of New York-Hunter College
Transportation Revenues and Expenditures in Kentucky: Measuring Historical Sufficiency and Defining Future Scenarios
Bryan Gibson & Doug Kreis, Kentucky Transportation Center, University of Kentucky; Dwight Denison, University of Kentucky; Candice Wallace
Banking on Infrastructure: Examining the Fiscal Effects of State Infrastructure Bank (SIB) Loans on Leveraging Local Transportation Investment
Can Chen, University of Nebraska at Omaha
From Value Increase to Value Capture: The Case of Maple Grove, Minnesota
Zhirong (Jerry) Zhao, University of Minnesota
Forecasting Issues & Trends Salon F
Chair: Jane Beckett-Camarata, Penn State University-Harrisburg
Revenue Forecasting Accuracy
Daniel Williams & Joseph Onochie, Baruch College, City University of New York
An Examination of Revenue Forecasting in the 50 States
Donald Boyd & Lucy Dadayan, Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government
Forecasting Accuracy in Virginia
James Conant, George Mason University
Using IMPLAN to forecast the fiscal impact of changes
John Wong, University of North Texas
Local Fiscal Policy & Budget Stabilization Salon G
Chair / Discussant: Agustin P. Leon-Moreta, Florida State University
Tax Instruments and Local Government Budget Stability
Yilin Hou, Syracuse University & Jason Seligman, The Ohio State University
Budget Stabilization in Municipalities: Evidence from Chicago Suburbs 1997 – 2011
Rebecca Hendrick, University of Illinois at Chicago
Fiscal Slack and Local Expenditure Stabilization – West Coast Style
Justin Marlowe, University of Washington
Great Recession and Responses to the Crisis in North Carolina Counties
Wen Wang, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis
Chair / Discussant: Michael Peddle, Northern Illinois
Local Sales Tax Distributions in Urban, Suburban, Rural, and Tourism Rich Counties in North Carolina: Who Wins and Who Loses?
Whitney Afonso, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
A Typology of Sales Tax Evaders: Targeting Enforcement to Diverse Intentions
P. Cary Christian, Georgia Southern University
The Future of Online Sales Taxes
Andrew Wesemann, University of Missouri
Charles E. Menifield, University of Missouri
Political Determinants of State Sales Tax Base Erosion
Geoffrey Propheter, The George Washington University
Confusion About General Consumption Taxation in American Tax Policy: Avoiding a National Value-Added Tax While Expanding Reliance on State Retail Sales Taxes
John L. Mikesell, Indiana University
Rainy Day & Fund Balances Meeting Room 3017
Chair / Discussant: Thad Calabrese, New York University
Do States Use Rainy Day Funds When it Pours? Disaster-Stabilization Funds in the Gulf Coast States
Charlotte Kirschner & Akheil Singla, The Ohio State University
Unclaimed Property: An Untapped Revenue Source for States?
Darrin Wilson & Gao Liu, Florida Atlantic University
The Interactive Effect of Fund Balance and Revenue Diversity on Local Government Fiscal Sustainability
David Wachira, The World Bank
A Spatial Analysis of Florida Local Governments’ Unreserved Fund Balance
Hai (David) Guo, Florida International University & Wen Wang, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis
3-3:15pm Refreshment Break Dupont Foyer
3:15-4:45pm Concurrent Sessions
Financing Primary and Secondary Education Georgetown II
Chair / Discussant: Elizabeth S. Overman, University of Central Oklahoma
Financial Implications of School Choice for Public School Systems
James A. Richardson & Roy L. Heidelberg, Louisiana State University
Fiscal Decentralization, Administrative Decentralization, and Performance Gaps between Low-Income and Non-Low Income Students
Abhisekh Ghosh Moulick, Texas A&M University
Politics or Professionalism? Budgeting for Bilingual Education
Carla M. Flink & Angel Luis Molina, Jr., Texas A&M University
Do the Dollars Add Up? The Missing Link between Capital Infrastructure Finance and School District Performance
Edward D. Vargas, University of New Mexico & Tima Moldogaziev, University of South Carolina
Institutional Arrangements for Public Library Funding and Spending
JiHyung Park, Carol Ebdon & Aimee Franklin, University of Oklahoma
Tax Fairness, Unemployment Trust Funds & Social Security Reform
Salon H
Chair: Andrew Wesemann, University of Missouri
Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Solvency: An Analysis of Balances and State Management Practices
Bryan Gibson, University of Kentucky
Are You Paying Your Fair Share?
James M. Hurley, District of Columbia Office of Finance and Resource Management
Behavioral Changes of Local Governments Under Fiscal Constraints: Colorado Case
Jung-Joo Lee, Seoul Women’s University
Fiscally & Morally Responsible Social Security (Oasi Payroll Tax) Reform
Brett Bergen, U.S. Navy
The Future of Higher Education Meeting Room 3017
Chair: James A. Richardson, Louisiana State University
Discussant: Michael S. Hayes, American University
Costs Up/Revenues Down: Trends in Higher Education Finance
Elizabeth S. Overman, University of Central Oklahoma
Education of Budget Officers
Edward Anthony Lehan, Independent Consultant
Kinky Aid and Student Loans: Does Tax-Based Aid Affect Students' Debt?
Tatyana Guzman, Cleveland State University
10-10:15am Refreshment Break Dupont Foyer
10:15-
11:45am Concurrent Sessions
Roundtable: How Results Teams Allocate Resources in Baltimore’s Outcome Budgeting System
Georgetown II
Chairs: Andrew Kleine, City of Baltimore & Roy Meyers, University of Maryland-Baltimore County
Panel Participants: Dan Sparaco, Assistant Deputy Chief of Operations, Mayor’s Office; Michael Pokorny, Department of Housing and Community Development & Beth Strommen, Sustainability Coordinator, Department of Planning
Using Transparency to Improve Budgetary Corruption Salon F
Chair / Discussant: Michael Thom, University of Southern California
The Impact of Public Officials’ Corruption on the Size and Allocation of U.S. State Spending
Cheol Liu & John L. Mikesell, Indiana University
Fiscal Federalism Toward Corruption or Transparency-Empirical Evidence from the United States
Jongmin Shon, Rutgers University-Newark & Yoon Kyoung Cho, University of Georgia
Government, Money, and Fraud
Sawsan A. Abutabanjeh, Old Dominion University
Politics, Economics, and Cross-Continental Fiscal Transparency: What about it?
Theodore Arapis & Vincent Reitano, Villanova University
Assessment of the Intergovernmental Grants in Latin American Sub-National Governments
Linda Janet Porras-Mendoza, Georgia State University
Persuading Legislators to Give Up their Power of the Purse: a Franco-American Perspective on Contemporary Budgeting
Alix Meyer, Sciences Po Lyon
An Empirical Analysis of the Equalization Effects of Fiscal Transfers on County-Level Fiscal Disparities in Henan Province
Li Hui, National University of Singapore
Desegregation, Fiscal Federalism, and the Effects on Intergenerational Income: A Comparative Consideration of Post-Apartheid South Africa and the Segregated American South
Sherman A. Cooper, Georgia State University
Overcoming Principal-Agent Goal Disparities between Congress and the Executive Using Inter-Governmental Transfers
Stuart Kasdin & Federica Iorio, George Washington University
The Strategic Use of Public Bonds Salon F
Chair: John Bartle, University of Nebraska at Omaha
Does Public Infrastructure Health Affect State Bond Ratings? Evidence from a Panel Data Analysis
Can Chen & Kenneth Kriz, University of Nebraska at Omaha
The Design and Estimation of a Bi-National Bond to Finance Strategic Infrastructure along the U.S.-Mexico Border
Harikumar Sankaran & Violeta Díaz, New Mexico State University & Salvador Espinosa, San Diego State University
Assessing Municipal Bond Default Probabilities
Matthew J. Holian, San Jose State University & Marc Joffe, Public Sector Credit Solutions
Bond Repayment Capacity in Developing Countries
Salvador Espinosa, San Diego State University & Christine Martell, University of Colorado Denver
Issues in Local Government Salon G
Chair: John Foster¸ Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville
Multi-Year Fiscal Planning and Projections in Local Governments – Status and Impact
Holly Sun & Joseph Cordes, George Washington University
Unraveling Fiscal Crisis: What Worked and What Didn’t for Local Governments?
Milena I. Neshkova & Hai (David) Guo, Florida International University
The Budget Process in Selected Town Governments: A Survey and Overview with Implications for the Field
Robert W. Smith, Kennesaw State University
Institutions and Epistemic Communities: The Impact of City Managers on Fiscal Outcomes
Skip Krueger, Abraham Benavides, & Kraiwuth Jaikampan, University of North Texas & Robert W. Walker, Willamette University
Assessing Other Postemployment Benefit Underfunding for Local Governments in Michigan
Traci Taylor, Eric Scorsone & David Schweikhardt, Michigan State University
Chair / Discussant: Tima T. Moldogaziev, University of South Carolina
Federal Bankruptcy Petition of Stockton, California
Ashley K. Ames, Indiana University
Why Fears about Municipal Credit Are Overblown
Daniel Bergstresser, Brandeis International Business School & Randolph B. Cohen, MIT Sloan School of Management
The Demise of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Jane Beckett‐Camarata, Penn State University‐Harrisburg & Cleopatra Grizzle, Rutgers University-Newark
Not All Bankruptcies Are Created Equal: Empirical Assessment of the Role of "Bankruptcy Risk" in Credit Ratings & Yields
Tima T. Moldogaziev, University of South Carolina, Sharon N. Kioko, Syracuse University & W. Bartley Hildreth, Georgia State University
Defense Spending During the Recession Salon G
Chair: Michael Brogan, Rider University
An Effect of Continuing Resolutions: Evidence of Expense Shifting in U.S. Army Contract and Supply Spending
Alexander Jacobs, University of Kentucky
Budgetary Impact of Military Base Closing (or Removal from Base Closing Lists) on Neighboring Municipalities --Effects during the Great Recession and its Aftermath
Andrew Glassberg, University of Missouri-St. Louis
Emergent Complex Networks: The Financial Web of Defense Department Weapons Acquisition Programs
M. Maureen Brown, University of North Carolina-Charlotte & Robert S. Kravchuk, Indiana University
Join us next year in Grand Rapids, Michigan! October 2nd-4th, 2014 @ Amway Grand Plaza