2012 US Stocks

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50BEST IDEAS

FOR 2012

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GURU NEWSLETTER PAGE

Jim Stack InvesTech Research Market Analyst 3

Jim Oberweis/David Covas The Oberweis Report 5

John Buckingham The Prudent Speculator 6

Richard Lehmann Forbes/Lehmann Income Securities Investor 7

Curtis Hesler Professional Timing Service 8

Charles Carlson DRIP Investor 8

Larry McMillan Option Strategist 10

Nigam Arora The Arora Report 11

Ron Rowland All Star Fund Trader 12

David Penn Short Term Power Ratings 13

Jack Adamo Insiders Plus 13

Gordan Pape The Canada Report 15

Taesik Yoon Forbes Investor 16

Marc Gerstein Forbes Low Priced Stock Report 18

Rudy Martin Latin Stock Investing 19

George Putnam The Turnaround Letter 20

John Reese Validea Hot List 20

Bernie Schaeffer Option Advisor 21

Marilyn Cohen Bond Smart Investor 23

Vahan Janjigian Special Situation Survey 24

George Gilder Gilder Telecosm Forum 25

Janet Brown NoLoad FundX 28

Richard Suttmeier ValuTrader 29

Ken Kam SWAN Advisory 30

Jim Lowell Fidelity Investor; Forbes ETF Advisor 31

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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Most investors are happy to wave goodbye to 2011. Last year was marked by fear and turbulence

and a euro crisis that decimated global markets. In the U.S., the big cap, dividend-rich 30-stock

Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to produce a total return of 8% while the S&P 500 offered a pal-

try 2% total return. Emerging markets, long viewed as investors’ heroes, turned out to be portfolio villains.

China was down 22%, Brazil was off 18% and India was down nearly 25%. One bright spot was oil-rich

Venzuela whose stock market gained nearly 80%. Gold, as measured by exchange-traded fund GLD,

gained 10% during calendar year 2011.

As we do every year, Forbes polled more than 25 of our advisor partners in December asking them for

one or two of their favorite investment ideas for 2012. This report, The 50 Best Ideas For 2012, contains

a diverse selection of investment recommendations from some of the best stock and bond pickers we know.

Overall, most advisors in Forbes’ network—with the exception of permabear economist Gary

Shilling—are optimistic about 2012. However, all are selective in their buys and “income” is still a theme,

even among stock pickers. Gary Shilling of course is predicting more trouble in the euro zone and is still

gloomy on housing. His best idea is to stay bullish on long term Treasury bonds. This advice last year

would have produced nearly 30% in total return.

We hope you enjoy this year’s Special Investment Report.

Here’s to a Happy And Prosperous 2012!



Source: Yahoo Finance

GURU: JIM STACK, INVESTECH RESEARCH MARKET ANALYSTRECOMMENDATIONS: CVS CAREMARK, CONOCOPHILLIPS

CVS Caremark (CVS) was created in 2007 by the merger of two pharmacy heavyweights:

CVS, the nation’s second largest drugstore chain and Caremark, a leading Pharmacy Benefits

Manager (PBM). The company’s combined operations—which include the nearly 7,400 CVS retail locations and

Caremark’s claims processing and mail-order business—allow it to process more than 1 billion prescriptions annu-

ally and make it the largest pharmacy company in the country.

CVS’s strong market presence is well suited for an aging U.S. population that will almost certainly demand more

prescriptions. Over the next 20 years the U.S. population “65 and older” is expected to grow from 40 million to 72

million—a 79% total increase. By 2030, 19% of the U.S. population will be over 65, compared with 13% currently.

This is a key growth demographic for CVS as people 65 and older fill an average of 25 prescriptions annually—

nearly three times the national average.

As the largest purchaser of drugs in the U.S., CVS is well positioned to meet this growing prescription demand.

In particular, CVS’s bargaining power with generic drug manufacturers is a key advantage. Generic drugs often

generate gross profits that are 40% higher than profits earned on branded counterparts. As we head into 2012, CVS

should benefit from the largest slate of major generic launches (Lipitor, Plavix, Singulair, etc.) in years. The funda-

mental outlook is so strong that CVS management is guiding to double-digit earnings growth for the next five years.

Company executives expect revenue to grow at 8% to 11% per year, while earnings per share are expected to increase

at 10% to 15% per year. Much of this growth will likely be returned to shareholders through dividends and stock

buybacks. CVS has been increasing its dividend, which currently yields 1.3%, at 22% per year for the last five years,

and is on track to top $1 billion in share buybacks this year alone.

Today CVS shares are trading at just 13.7x earnings, a steep discount to its 10-year median valuation of 18.1x

earnings. With positive industry trends, projected double-digit earnings growth and a 30% discount to historic

valuation levels, CVS is a solid company with great appreciation potential.





ConocoPhillips (COP), a large diversified U.S. energy company, holds a commanding presence in North

America and around the globe. With an emphasis on production growth, reserve replacement and financial strength,

the firm is situated to perform well over the next several years.

In early 2010 ConocoPhillips embarked on a three-year plan focused on improving the balance sheet, increasing

returns and investing in the most profitable opportunities. Since implementing this plan, divestitures of non-core,

low-margin assets have generated about $20 billion in cash and the proceeds have been deployed toward debt

reduction, share repurchases, dividend increases and investment in higher return projects. In 2012 COP has

another $5 to $10 billion in assets slated for sale that will provide more cash for the repositioning plan.

Management’s latest value unlocking move is the decision to spin-off the downstream refining and chemical

operations by the first half of 2012.

After the split, the upstream operations will hold onto the ConocoPhillips name and be the largest pure-play

exploration and production company in the U.S.—twice the size of its closest peer. The company’s $15.5 billion

capital program will increase 15% over 2011, and more than half the outlay is targeted for North American liquid-

rich plays. After holding steady through the third year of repositioning, production is expected to grow an attractive

3%-4% annually for the foreseeable future. Notwithstanding COP’s size, scale and technical capabilities that allow the

company to operate anywhere in the world, higher margin projects in the Lower 48 and Canada will drive a greater

portion of the projected growth.

The strength of ConocoPhillips’ balance sheet and cash flow generation places the company in an enviable posi-

tion. Using proceeds from asset dispositions, the firm’s share repurchases have reduced outstanding shares 15%.

COP has approved an additional $10 billion of repurchases to further enhance shareholder value, and cash flow per

share is expected to grow an impressive 10%-15% in the years ahead. On top of all this, the post-split divi-

dend for the upstream company is projected to be well over 5%, continuing the company’s streak of paying a

dividend every year since 1934.




GURUS: J IM OBERWEIS AND DAVID COVAS,THE OBERWEIS REPORTRECOMMENDATIONS: ACACIA RESEARCH, TWIN DISC

Acacia Research (ACTG) acquires, develops, licenses and enforces patented

technologies. The company’s operating subsidiaries generate license fee revenues and related cash flows from the granting of

licenses for the use of patented technologies that are owned or controlled. Acacia’s operating subsidiaries assist patent own-

ers with the prosecution and development of their patent portfolios, the protection of their patented inventions from unau-

thorized use, the generation of licensing revenue from users of their patented technologies and, if necessary, with the

enforcement against unauthorized users of their patented technologies. Acacia is a leader in licensing patented technologies

and currently owns or controls, on a consolidated basis, the rights to more than 190 patent portfolios covering technologies

used in a wide variety of industries. The languishing economy has increased Acacia’s value proposition within the technol-

ogy industry as technology companies are increasingly interested in monetizing their intellectual property. Over the last year,

Acacia grew revenue nearly 20% over the prior 12-month period as it struck large licensing deals with the likes of Samsung

and Research in Motion. We believe ACTG could earn more than $2.00 per share in the next 12 months (70% EPS growth).

Twin Disc (TWIN)manufactures and sells

heavy duty marine and off-highway power

transmission equipment. Recently, Twin Disc

has experienced robust growth in its transmis-

sion systems used in horizontal drilling of oil

and natural gas. The company recently

launched a new lower horsepower transmission

product, the first specifically designed for smaller

unconventional drilling rigs, which is expected to

greatly increase the company’s total addressable

market. In its latest reported quarter, manage-

ment noted that it expects a more meaningful

contribution to backlog from this product as

field testing is completed and orders are booked.

In addition to its high growth oil and gas busi-

ness, TWIN’s industrial and marine businesses

are finally starting to recover and should be aided

by the launch of a new marine joystick system,

which we believe will drive growth in the next

year. In the company’s latest fiscal quarter, Twin

Disc grew sales 32%, earnings per share 246%,

and backlog 65% over the same period a year

earlier. In the next year, we think earnings per

share could top $3.15 (nearly 30% growth).







JOHN BUCKINGHAM, THE PRUDENT SPECULATORRECOMMENDATION: SHIP FINANCE INTERNATIONAL

Shares of oil tanker owner and operator Ship Finance International(SFL) have been brutalized

over the past month after worries arose about its exposure to former parent Frontline, which has

major liquidity concerns and which is on the other side of charter contracts for 28 of Ship's 69 vessels. Happily, those

concerns have been calmed somewhat after Frontline put forth a restructuring proposal that will actually see $106

million of 'restructuring compensation' make its way back to Ship Finance. Yes, SFL has agreed to amend the terms

of the long-term Frontline contracts in the process and a near-term hit to $0.25 per share from the lucrative $0.39 per

share quarterly dividend is likely, but I think the outcome is far better than what the 30% share-price hit over the past

four weeks would suggest. In addition, while last quarter's results came in light relative to investor expectations, the

company still earned $0.35 per share, and the consensus earnings forecast still calls for EPS of $1.45 in 2012. The dou-

ble-digit percentage yield (even if we simply annualize the likely new $0.25 quarterly payout rate) along with the fact

that we believe that shipping rates are more likely to move higher than lower from currently depressed levels over the

long-term add to SFL's appeal.






GURU: RICHARD LEHMANN, FORBES/LEHMANN INCOME SECURITIES INVESTORRECOMMENDATIONS: JUST ENERGY, STONEMOR PARTNERS

Just Energy (JSTEF) is a Canadian energy company supplying electricity and natural gas to

residential customers under long term contracts. At $10 the stock yields 12.0% on a monthly dividend of 10.3 cents

Canadian that it has been paying since July, 2008. Recent price weakness seems to be based on fears that this dividend

rate can’t be sustained, but I disagree. Besides, even if it cuts the rate, that event is already built into the price.

StoneMor Partners L.P. (STON) is the second largest U.S. operator of cemeteries and funeral homes. It pays a

quarterly dividend of .585 cents and yields 11%, pretty astounding for such a steady business. STON has been raising

its partnership distributions steadily by 3% to 4% a year. For a tax sheltered investment, it’s hard to beat.








GURU: CURTIS HESLER, PROFESSIONAL TIMING SERVICERECOMMENDATION: IAMGOLD

There was a study done in the 1970’s that discovered that gold stocks tended to bottom in the

fourth quarter and rally strongly into the end of the first quarter of the next year. The average gain

of the day trading popular mining stocks like ASA was more than 85%.

Gold topped out at above $1,900/oz. in August and September. Since then, it has corrected to as low as $1,535, and

it has consolidated around the $1,700 level since. There is significant support now at $1,600, but I don’t expect it to

dip that far before the next big rally leg begins. I am confident that we will see gold significantly higher in 2012, and

perhaps we will see new highs by March.

Another advantage is that the average gold stock is selling cheaper at the beginning of the new year than it did dur-

ing the great crash of 2008. Now is the time to do a little gold mining and buy Iamgold (IAG).

Iamgold operates five mines and has some very interesting development projects in the works and—this is the

most important part—it is producing a million ounces a year. Gold mining is a capital intensive enterprise; and these

days, money is harder to find than gold. You need to have production, cash flow, and growth projects you can afford

to exploit from internal cash. Iamgold has all three, and even pays a 1% dividend. That is not all that outstanding, but

it will pay as well as a CD with the potential to double during the next leg of the gold bull market.

GURU: CHARLES CARLSON, DRIP INVESTORRECOMMENDATIONS: FOOT LOCKER, INTEL

There’s a nice turnaround story building at Foot Locker (FL). This specialty retailer, after strug-

gling in 2007, 2008 and 2009, has put together five solid quarters of better-than-expected profit

growth. The stock has responded to the operational improvement, with these shares moving to their highest level








since 2006 before pulling back to their current price. Solid operating momentum, a cash-heavy balance sheet, and an

attractive yield of nearly 3% are just a few of the attractions of these shares. While these

shares have demonstrated above-average volatility in the past, I like the direction of the company and the stock and

view these shares an attractive play for more aggressive investors. Please note that Foot Locker offers a traditional

dividend reinvestment plan in that investors must be a shareholder of at least one share—and have the share

registered in their own name, not the “street” name—in order to participate in the plan.

Intel (INTC) sold off in recent trading, but the sell-off is providing an opportunity in

these shares for 2012. I like the company’s modest valuation and healthy dividend yield. I think the company can beat

what are rather modest earnings-growth prospects for 2012. The yield should provide some downside cushion while

operating momentum improves. The stock should outperform the market in 2012. Intel offers a direct-purchase plan

whereby any investor may buy the first share and every share directly from the company.





GURU: LARRY MCMILLAN, OPTION STRATEGISTRECOMMENDATION: WALGREEN

The largest piece of fundamental news regarding Walgreen (WAG) is its ongoing dispute with

Express Scripts (ESRX). Most of the news stories in the past year have centered on this dispute. I

expect that during 2012, the dispute will be resolved—for ESRX needs Walgreen a lot more than the other way

around. Meanwhile, WAG continues to report decent earnings and pay a dividend large enough to attract money

from investors concerned with yield.

From an options’ standpoint, WAG options have increased in expensiveness (i.e., implied volatility) over the past

six months. This makes it attractive for the types of strategies I like to use—particularly the selling of puts with

striking prices below the current stock price. By selling such a put, one is collecting the premium (which you keep if

the stock remains above the striking price). Or, if the stock falls below the striking price, the stock can then be bought

at an attractive price.






GURU: NIGAM ARORA, THE ARORA REPORTRECOMMENDATION: RED HAT

The premise behind this pick is that most money with the lowest risk is made by identifying a

change before Wall Street. In the world of information technology, two megatrends are in their

infancy—migration to cloud computing and virtualization. Cloud computing entails providing software as a service.

Virtualization means creation of virtual machines that mimic real computers. Cloud computing and virtualization

stocks are very expensive, face stiff competition and are subject to rapid technological changes. This poses a challenge

for investors focused on risk adjusted returns.

Red Hat (RHT) is a hidden gem. The company provides open source infrastructure software to the enterprises

migrating to the two megatrends. Red Hat is the equivalent of a seller of picks and pans to the miners during the

California gold rush. My long-term estimates of growth rate and earnings power are 50% higher than the consensus

estimates. Red Hat is also an attractive acquisition target.

My earnings estimate for 2012 is $1.60, and $2.00 the following year compared to the consensus estimate of $1.05

for 2011. The stock is prone to occasionally falling on an earnings report. Astute investors may want to be patent and

buy only on the weakness as any weakness will be a buying opportunity.






GURU: RON ROWLAND, ALL STAR FUND TRADERRECOMMENDATION: UBS E-TRACS 2X LEVERAGED LONG WELLSFARGO BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

If you’re looking for high dividend yield, look no more. Not many investments can beat

E-Tracs 2X Leveraged Long Wells Fargo Business Development ETN (BDCL). Its latest quarterly payment of nearly

83 cents per share allows BDCL to sport an astonishing 19% annual dividend yield.

What in the world? Let’s take it apart. ‘ETN’ tells us this is an exchange-traded note. That is not the same as an

exchange-traded fund but looks superficially similar. The prime difference is that an ETN is a type of bond issued by

a bank—UBS in this case. ‘Business Development’ companies are publicly traded entities that invest in private equity

and debt, similar to private equity funds. The typical BDC lends capital to small- and mid-sized companies at relatively

high rates while often taking equity stakes. It’s similar to a venture capital deal. So BDCL is an ETN whose value is

based on the return of an index of BDCs. The underlying investments are themselves highly leveraged, and BDCL

doubles the leverage again. That’s the source of the impressive dividend yield.

BDCL was launched in May, 2011 at $24 per share. The two quarterly dividends since then were paid right on time:

78.4 cents per share on July 12 and 82.7 cents per share on October 11. Anyone who bought the initial offering has

already earned 6.7% of their investment back, in cash. On the other hand (you knew this was coming), the daily price

of BDCL has been all over the place, ranging from $28.35 to as low as $13.14 this year. Nor is the dividend guaranteed

to continue. The income tax consequences of this uniquely-packaged investment are unclear. And there’s the little

matter of credit risk.

As noted above, an ETN is basically a bond. BDCL investors are loaning their money to Swiss banking giant UBS.

European banks are not widely regarded for their creditworthiness right now. If UBS runs into trouble, BDCL

investors could be left out in the cold. If you have the stomach for it, and you like high yields, take a look at BDCL. If

you like the concept but are a bit less adventurous, an unleveraged version is available under the ticker BDCS.







GURU: DAVID PENN, SHORT TERM POWER RATINGSRECOMMENDATION: KELLOGG COMPANY

For longer-term investors, our highest rated stock is Kellogg Company (K), makers of a

variety of ready-to-eat foodstuffs from Apple Jacks to Vanilla Wafers. After rallying to its highest

levels of 2011 in mid-May, shares of Kellogg fell to their lowest levels of the year in late November, closing at just above

$48 a share. Negative sentiment has increased toward Kellogg, with two firms downgrading the stock from "buy" to

"hold" in the first half of November shortly after missing analyst estimates for both earnings and revenues.

That said, Kellogg earned our highest rating of 10 out of 10 in early December, and is currently the highest

rated stock in the S&P 500. Kellogg is typical of the kind of stock that earns our highest ratings insofar as it is a

well-established company with the potential to increase in value over time. Kellogg has a dividend yield of 3.5%.

One straightforward way to manage an investment in a top-rated stock like Kellogg is with a 100% price target

and a 20% protective stop.

GURU: JACK ADAMO, INSIDERS PLUSRECOMMENDATION: SEASPAN SERIES-C, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL

I expect 2012 to be a bad year for stocks, so I’m emphasizing safety. Over the last 10

years Insiders Plus had a Sharpe Ratio (risk-adjusted return) five times the market’s.

Seaspan Corp. Series-C 9.50% Cumulative Preferred (SSW-PC) leases container ships on long-term

charters of up to 12 years. 70% of its revenues come from shipping companies owned by The People’s








Republic of China. Another 20% are from Japan’s biggest shippers.

This preferred stock is almost a bond. The shares are redeemable in 2016, and probably will be, so we are shielded

from the long-term effects of inflation open-ended preferreds face. The $25 par shares are selling near $27, so effective yield

to redemption is 6.9%. At my price limit the yield would be 5.8%. These are great yields for this degree of safety. The float is

thin on this issue, so buy only with a limit order, never a market order. The symbol used here is from Yahoo. MSN uses

SSW-C. Your broker may use another, so check. Buy Seaspan 9.50% Cumulative Preferred up to $28. Incidentally, I like Sea-

span’s common (SSW) too, but

would buy it in tranches on

bear market pullbacks to $11,

$9 and $7.

In the last 10 years, Royal

Dutch Shell, Class-B (RDS-

B) has more than doubled

and is near an all-time high.

Despite two of the worst bear

markets in history it has

beaten the S&P 500, the Dow

Jones Industrial Average and

the NASDAQ 100. New man-

agement is growing produc-

tion, reducing expenses, sell-

ing non-core assets, and

paying down debt on a bal-

ance sheet already rated A++

by ValueLine. Conservatively

calculated, third quarter

earnings per ADR were

$1.98, 40% above last year.

The stock was up 19% last

year, beating all but one of the

world’s major integrated oil

companies, half of which were

down in 2011. Shell shares

yield 4.7% with a payout ratio

of just 40%, leaving room for

future dividend growth.

Regardless of initiatives

for alternate fuels, demand for oil will continue to outstrip supply for decades to come. Strong companies in this sec-

tor will reward patient investors with steady income and growth. I would buy Royal Dutch Shell, Class-B up to $76,

and would load up on bear market pullbacks below $65 and $55.





GURU: GORDON PAPE, THE CANADA REPORTRECOMMENDATIONS: BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE ENERGY PARTNERS, ENBRIDGE

With the on-going debt crisis in Europe and the uncertainty in the run-up to the U.S. election, 2012

will likely be another volatile year for the markets. So I'm taking a low-risk, conservative approach with an emphasis on stabil-

ity and cash flow. Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP.UN) (PINK: BRPFF), a Bermuda-based limited part-

nership that is expected to list on the New York Stock Exchange soon, owns more than $13 billion worth of renewable power

generation assets in Canada, the United States and Brazil. The units pay an annualized distribution of $1.35 to yield about 5%

and that will increase going forward at a target rate of between 3% and 5% annually. There are also some tax advantages.

I recommended a companion limited

partnership, Brookfield Infrastructure

Limited Partnership (BIP), in mid-2011

and it has done very well. The pair make

an excellent combination for anyone look-

ing for low-risk, recession-resistant securi-

ties with strong cash flow.

Staying with the low-risk theme, take a

look at Calgary-based Enbridge (ENB). It

is best known for its huge pipeline busi-

ness, which is the world's longest crude oil

and liquids transportation system. But it

also is Canada's largest natural gas distrib-

utor, serving Ontario, Quebec, New

Brunswick and New York. As well,

Enbridge is increasingly involved in the

natural gas transmission and midstream

businesses, and is expanding its activities

in renewable and green energy technolo-

gies, including wind and solar energy,

hybrid fuel cells and carbon dioxide

sequestration. The stock is highly defen-

sive, having stood up very well in the crash

of 2008-09. Enbridge recently announced

a 15% dividend increase that projects to a

2012 yield of just more than 3% based on

the recent price. I regard this is a core stock

for the Canadian section of a portfolio.








16WWW.FORBESNEWSLETTERS.COM

GURU: TAESIK YOON, FORBES INVESTORRECOMMENDATIONS: AVIS BUDGET GROUP, SUPERVALU

On the whole, 2011 has not been kind to value stocks. Even shares of companies that

performed better than expected on an operational basis really took it on the chin. But that trend should

reverse itself in 2012. Below are two value stocks, which I believe will enjoy strong rebounds in the coming year.

Through its Avis and Budget brands, Avis Budget Group (CAR) is a leading global provider of car and truck

rentals to businesses and consumers. The company's largest segment is its domestic car rental operations (74% of

revenues through the first nine months of 2011), which offer car rentals and related services in the U.S. Its interna-

tional car rental segment (19% of revenues) provides similar services in Argentina, Australia/New Zealand, Canada,

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The remainder was derived from truck rentals.

CAR significantly augmented its operations in October with the acquisition of Avis Europe plc for $1.0 billion.

Avis Europe provides car rental services under the Avis and Budget brands in 112 and 59 countries, respectively. The

company expects annual cost-saving synergies of $30 million once fully integrated.

Strategic actions taken following the recession several years ago, including a greater emphasis on the inbound-

international and the small business rental markets, have led to significant improvement in operating results over the

past year. Indeed, earnings have exceeded analysts’ expectations for three straight quarters. I would not be surprised

by another strong showing in the fourth quarter. As for 2012, the Avis Europe acquisition should boost the top

line. It also expands CAR’s presence in fast-growing countries such as India and China. The current consensus

analysts’ estimate for 2012 is $1.89. This indicates that shares are trading at an unjustly low 6 times next year’s ex-

pectations. However, if synergies from the Avis Europe acquisition materialize faster than expected, this estimate

could prove conservative.

SuperValu (SVU) is a leading operator of retail grocery stores and the largest publicly traded wholesale grocery

distributor in the U.S. SVU operates 1,106 traditional supermarket format retail locations under the ACME, Albert-

son’s, Cub Foods, Farm Fresh, Jewel-Osco, Hornbacher’s, Shaw’s, Shop ‘n Save, Shoppers Food & Pharmacy, and Star





Market banners. Its retail network also consists of 1,294 hard-discount stores under the Save-A-Lot banner—most of

which are run by licensees. Additionally, through its supply chain services segment, SVU provides food distribution

and logistics services to its retail food stores and approximately 1,900 national, regional and independent grocery

store operators and mass merchants.

A high debt burden (stemming from a major acquisition in 2006) and greater competition from Wal-Mart and

other large-format discount retailers resulted in a sharp decline in earnings over the past several years. However,

actions implemented to turn its operations around—such as its transition towards a center-led merchandising model,

growing its private label brands, remodeling stores and shedding itself of under-performing stores—are finally

paying off. Like CAR noted above, SVU has also exceeded expectations every quarter so far this year.

Management specifically attributed these stronger than expected performance to its business transformation

initiatives. With SVU’s current turnaround strategy firmly in place, I expect operating results to continue to surprise

to the upside in fiscal 2013 (which begins in March). As it does, it will become increasingly more difficult for investors

to ignore the stock’s compelling valuation (selling at just 6 times the currently consensus estimate for 2012) and

generous dividend, which currently yields approximately 5%.





GURU: MARC GERSTEIN, FORBES LOW PRICED STOCK REPORTRECOMMENDATIONS: COMSTOCK HOMEBUILDING, GSE SYSTEMS

Real-estate professionals have been known to say the three most important elements of success

are location, location and location. When it comes to housing stocks, I might adapt that to say it

all comes down to survivability, survivability, and survivability. Consider Comstock Homebuilding (CHCI), which

did about than $250 million in annual revenue in the mid-2000s as it expanded beyond its metropolitan Washington DC

core as it spread out along the east coast. But then . . . well, you know. Fortunately for CHCI, it went right into

survival mode. Revenue in 2011 is likely to come in at a paltry $20-$25 million. But cash from operations is positive and

was boosted by proceeds from a litigation settlement (one of the rare occasions when a nonrecurring gain is a big deal).

CHCI has retrenched back to the DC area and is doing multifamily projects, which it is, actually, able to sell. Stock valua-

tion metrics are normal, but the fundamentals used in the calculations are incredibly depressed. Imagine what might hap-

pen to the stock if the business can, in the next couple of years, grow to become, say, 75% below the former peak.

If you’ve ever admired Peter Lynch, you

may want to at least take a look at

GSE Systems (GVP), which makes simulators

used to train nuclear power-plant personnel.

In a chapter of “One Up on Wall Street”

describing the so-called prefect stock, Lynch

cites a disagreeable business as one of the

attributes. What could be more disagreeable

than nuclear power, especially considering it’s

less than a year since the disaster at Japan’s

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. But the

world may not have the luxury of banishing

some things because we hate them, and

nuclear power seems to be in that category

(Japan is still going ahead with plant con-

struction). If anything, disasters remind us

how much more vigilant we need to be re-

garding training, GSE’s bailiwick. There will

also be a lot of pent up need, given that the

median age of nuclear power-plant workers is

50, meaning there will be lots of retirements

and new hires in the near future. Also, a re-

cent deal allows GSE to bring its simulation

expertise to a related area; validation of plant

design. The company is also moving beyond

nuclear, to simulation training for fossil fuel

plants and energy refining.Source: Yahoo Finance






GURU: RUDY MARTIN, LATIN STOCK INVESTINGRECOMMENDATIONS: CEMEX, MERCADOLIBRE

Cemex, S.A.B. de C.V. (CX) is now clearly headed towards recovery based on a) top line price

increases, b) reductions in expenses—especially from a lower debt load and interest expense, c)

benefits from lower fuel costs as it moves to alternative fuels, which will surpass coal as main fuel next year, and d)

added flexibility from asset sales. Yes, it has become a classic turnaround stock—including having a following that does

not believe it can attain financial health in the new slowing global economy—creating an opportunity to buy this

cheap. But the stock is rebounding. While

I’m not expecting a $36 high, but $9-10

would not be a bad price target, a mere

100% return from its current value.

Beyond its internal recovery, an improve-

ment in U.S. economic trends could also

lift infrastructure stocks like CX.

My second recommendation is a com-

pany with a growth engine that is fueled

by the population growth in Latin Amer-

ica and the rising Internet penetration.

MercadoLibre (MELI) is the leading

Internet stock in Latin America and a

must-own core holding. MELI’s strategic

advantage is that it provides a robust

online trading environment that fosters

the development of a large and growing

e-commerce community. New products,

additional ad revenue and payment serv-

ices are key drivers. This is a real growth

stock with the potential for more positive

growth surprises.

The recent IPOs of Zynga, Groupon

and LinkedIn are signs that the market is

not done believing in the growth potential

of Internet stocks. And while some of these

may disappoint delivering on the promises,

MELI has a proven cash flow and should

gain a premium valuation as investors real-

ize its consistent earnings power. This is now a stock picker's market. I'm not expecting near-term macro trends to lift

all shares in a sector or region. For this reason, I have been recommending solid dividend-paying stocks and a few

special situations.

19







GURU: GEORGE PUTNAM, THE TURNAROUND LETTERRECOMMENDATION: OFFICEMAX

One of my favorite stocks for 2012 is OfficeMax (OMX), a leading seller of office products in

both the business-to-business and retail channels. The stock declined steadily through much of

2011 as investors fretted about the possibility of a new recession in the U.S. While OfficeMax is sensitive to economic

activity, I believe that investors have significantly overreacted in dumping the stock. It now looks as though the econ-

omy isn’t doing so badly after all. Moreover, even if there is some weakness in business spending, OfficeMax is now

much more efficient than it was in past downturns.

The company is focusing on several areas for new growth, including overseas expansion, increased online presence

and new “integrated solutions” for offices. By most measures, the stock looks very cheap, with a price-to-earnings

ratio of less than nine and a price-to-sales ratio of 0.05 (both based on trailing 12-month numbers). Even without

renewed growth, a slight change in investor perceptions about OfficeMax could send the stock up sharply.

GURU: JOHN REESE, VALIDEA HOT LIST RECOMMENDATION: ROSS STORES

Based in Pleasanton, Calif., Ross Stores (ROST) is the nation's second-largest off-price retailer,

selling a variety of name-brand clothing, accessories and home goods at highly discounted prices.

It has more than 1,000 stores across the U.S. under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's Discounts names. Part of what

draws me to Ross ($11.5 billion market cap) is its impressive track record of increasing both sales and earnings in a

variety of different climates—it's upped both in every year since 2005, making it a particularly attractive choice give

that consumers remain skittish and budget-conscious.

My Guru Strategies are based on the approaches of history's best investors, and Ross gets strong interest from three

20








of them. My Warren Buffett-inspired model likes that ROST has increased earnings per share in all but one year of the

past decade, has just $150 million in debt vs. more than $600 million in annual earnings, and has averaged a 29.3%

return on equity over the past decade. My Peter Lynch-based model likes its 30.1% long-term EPS growth rate and

0.57 P/E-to-growth ratio, and my James O'Shaughnessy-inspired approach likes that Ross has a red-hot relative

strength of 94 but remains reasonably priced, trading for 1.27 times sales.

Disclosure: I'm long ROST.

GURU: BERNIE SCHAEFFER, OPTION ADVISORRECOMMENDATIONS: TOLL BROTHERS, SOUTHERN COMPANY

Debate rages about when and if a housing recovery will occur, as the U.S. economy confronts

high unemployment, debt issues in Europe and a political stalemate in Washington D.C. Amid this uncertainty,

expectations are extremely low. But homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) has quietly outperformed the broad market in

2011, perhaps indicating a buying opportunity for investors in a company that specializes in the luxury home market.

TOL shares have been basing for a few years, with the bottom in 2008 coincident with the financial crisis. With a low

bar to hurdle on the earnings expectations front, the company has surprised investors, easily topping earnings esti-

mates in five of the past six quarters. Though TOL outperformed the market in 2011 on the heels of impressive quar-

terly earnings reports, there is room for significant price appreciation in 2012. For example, the shares could benefit

from brokerage upgrades and from short covering, as only 12 of the 23 Wall Street analysts currently following the

stock rate it a “buy.” Additionally, the shorts, whose activity represents nearly seven percent of TOL’s share float, are

growing impatient and further covering could provide additional buying power.

If you are looking for a utility stock that offers a combination of impressive capital appreciation potential and an







attractive dividend yield, consider adding the Southern Company (SO) to your equity portfolio. With interest rates hovering

at extremely low levels that may continue in 2012, SO shares have appreciated by more than 15 percent in 2011 even as many

stocks trade in the red. But even more impressive for contrarian investors is the fact that the shares have exhibited this price

strength amid an analyst community that, on balance, is not recommending the stock. Of the 23 Wall Street analysts following

SO, only six rate it a “buy,” while two have tagged a “sell” rating on the equity. Moreover, in 2011 short interest grew by 45

percent on this outperformer. With the stock near all-time highs, the shorts and the Wall Street analysts may be forced to

capitulate by becoming less bearish, which would provide additional price appreciation potential for the shares. And as an

added bonus, the 4.2-percent dividend yield is attractive to income-seeking investors.




GURU: MARILYN COHEN, BOND SMART INVESTORRECOMMENDATIONS: SMITHFIELD FOODS 7.75% BONDS,TESORO 6.50% BONDS

What does 2012 have in store for bond market investors? Probably more complications than

answers. And, most likely, Bondland will keep investors of all shapes and sizes scratching and sniffing around for

yield. The yield can’t be found in investment grade bonds. You’ll have to bend your quality rules and buy high yield

bonds whose issuers have: A good story about turning their business around;

improving credit metrics; and management restraining itself from being careless.

Equally important, investors need to refrain from buying financials—banks, bro-

kerage or bonds issued by insurance companies. The European implosion will take

those down hard. Moreover, if the implosion is a whimper, their business turn-

around is nowhere in sight.

Buy what you understand. That means nothing esoteric or weird. Two names

that fit this profile are Smithfield Foods and Tesoro Corp.

Smithfield Foods is an easy company to understand and relate to. It processes

and markets portfolio products under 50 different nationally recognized brands.

Smithfield is the largest hog producer and pork processor glob-

ally. Annual sales are $12.2 billion. If you buy Boar’s Head ham or

turkey, you are part of that $12.2 billion in revenue. If you pack

LunchMakers for your kids’ or your own office snacks, then you

know Smithfield.

Smithfield bonds were upgraded in 2011 and leverage is down dramatically. Estimates are that leverage in 2012 will

be 1.7x. Don’t be surprised if there are more upgrades in 2012. Buy Smithfield Foods 7.75% due July 1, 2017.

The bonds are non-callable and rated BB- by Standard & Poor’s (CUSIP: 832248AQ1). If you pay $108.75,

you’ll earn a 5.89% yield to maturity. Not bad for a company that knows who it is and how to improve its bal-

ance sheet and business.

Another drastically improved story is being written and executed by Tesoro Corp. This oil refining and petroleum

products company is doing it right. The balance sheet has improved. Gross refining margins are up 64%. Retail sales

are up 30% in their gas stations. The logistics business is doing well. What’s not to admire? Tesoro management wants

to get out of the junk ratings category to investment grade. With an improved balance sheet, high-return projects,

and refining margins rising, it is on its way.

Buy Tesoro 6.50% bonds due June 1, 2017 Callable June 1, 2012 @ 103.25 (CUSIP: 881609AT8). Rated BB+ by

Standard & Poor's. If you pay $103, that’s a 5.53% yield to the worst call in 2015, a 6.83% yield to the June 1, 2012 call

and a 5.85% yield to maturity.







GURU: VAHAN JANJIGIAN, SPECIAL SITUATION SURVEYRECOMMENDATIONS: SUPERVALU, RESEARCH IN MOTION

SuperValu (SVU), an out of favor grocer and supply chain manager, dug itself into a big hole

when it acquired Albertson's in 2006 and saw its balance sheet go out of whack. Debt ballooned

from $1.5 billion just before the acquisition to $9.5 billion afterwards. Furthermore, management gambled that it

could compete against upscale grocers such as Whole Foods Market. That plan backfired when the economic reces-

sion hit. Suddenly, SVU's traditional customers wanted bargains and started trading down to discount grocers. The

company racked up massive losses and slashed the dividend by half. But SVU is now in the midst of a turnaround.

New management decided to expand the company's Save-A-Lot hard-discount chain. Debt has been reduced by a

third and the bottom line is back in the black. Despite the dividend reduction, the stock still offers an extremely gen-

erous yield. SVU should be able to maintain the current payout and reduce debt even further at the same time. With

expected earnings of $1.25 per share in fiscal 2012 (which ends in February), SVU is an extremely cheap stock.

It's difficult to find a stock that is more out of favor than Research in Motion (RIMM). The company is best

known for the BlackBerry smartphone. RIMM is led by a pair of co-CEOs, a highly unusual arrangement for any

publicly-traded company and one that has proven extremely ineffective in recent periods. The dysfunctional arrange-

ment has resulted in one misstep after another. In particular, the company has delayed the launch of key new models

and new software a number of times. RIMM also had a disastrous launch of its tablet computer dubbed the PlayBook.

Although some experts claim the PlayBook is technologically superior to other tablets, consumers complain that there

are too few apps. Management has been begging investors to exercise a little more patience. Instead, investors have

been selling the stock. Yet, it's too early to write RIMM's obituary. Although the company is losing market share in the

U.S., it's still a leader in several key international markets. In fact, the subscriber base surged 35% year-over-year dur-

ing the most recently completed quarter. The board of directors will release a report in January that is widely expected

to recommend drastic changes. Despite reduced earnings expectations ($4.10 per share for fiscal 2012), with

absolutely no debt on the books and the real possibility of a management shake-up, RIMM is worth a second look.





GURU: GEORGE GILDER, GILDER TELECOSM FORUMRECOMMENDATIONS: EZCH, MLNX, EVGN.TA, CGEN, BRCM, INTC,TSEM, AUDC, APKT, WAVX

The dim gentility of my brain is currently brimming with Israel's genius after a ten-day trip to

this fabulous technology scene and a thirteen-hour ride on El Al.

EZchip (EZCH) still comes first as the leader of the pack headed for the fiber speed video Internet paradigm.

Following closely, with Eyal Waldman in the cockpit, cruising into the cloud on Infiniband and moving to Ethernet,

is Mellanox Technologies (MLNX). It may not have the best technology but it has the most irrepressible and temer-

arious CEO, and that counts for a lot of nebulation in the future.

Then let's all bow before Evogene (EVGN.TA), which is public in various elusive forms, perhaps with its head in the

cloud and its nose in the dirt. (The gymnastic posture that Feynman associates with genius: "Einstein could do it but

the rest of us have to choose.") Evogene has just persuaded Monsanto, the world leader in AG science, to move its key

R&D to Israel and make a further investment of $35M. (Evogene has $60M in cash—half its market cap of $120M,

and has applied its parent Compugen's technology to agricultural predictive genetics in silico.)

Evogene's manifest success portends well, someday, for Compugen (CGEN), since it uses CGEN's model of the

genetic cascade, and this puts CGEN in my noggin despite the lack of significant news.

Broadcom (BRCM) has plighted its troth to Israel in wireless backhaul and put its program under the sway of

Provigent (in which I invested before the merger). Broadcom is taking over the wireless backhaul market with a







billion dollar business as of now, expanding rapidly. Wireless backhaul is slated to be huge, with the predicted 16-fold

increase in wireless data predicted by 2015. With nine Israeli acquisitions, BRCM is in the process of becoming

an Israeli company.

Intel (INTC) is already a product of Israel's genius and it is rumored to be contemplating its Israeli VP D. Perl-

mutter as the successor to Ottelini as CEO. Its P/E is 10 and if necessary it can have a successful career as the leading

U.S. and Israeli foundry.

The leading independent Israeli foundry is TowerJazz (TSEM) and it is depressed by a financial imbroglio and con-

vertible overhang. But under CEO Russell Ellwanger it has been executing well an ingenious analog strategy that

makes it a good way to play the analog paradigm. (The more digital traffic the greater the need for analog interfaces,





which gain the bulk of the profits.)

AudioCodes (AUDC) is an overlooked player in the ascendant session (layer five) paradigm, behind Acme Packet

(APKT). Both have Session Border Controllers and AUDC also commands important intellectual property in high

definition voice.

And finally, there is my own Wave Systems (WAVX) (I'm on the board), which has bought the Israeli security firm

Safend and is now partly Israeli, and handily makes the list.





GURU: JANET BROWN, NOLOAD FUNDXRECOMMENDATIONS: POWERSHARES QQQ, WISDOMTREE DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIAL

I am cautiously optimistic based on valuations, sentiment, monetary conditions and recent

market action, but my primary strategy is to be flexible and actively adjust through what may be a continued envi-

ronment punctuated by uncertainty.

Large-cap growth funds led in 2011 and one of the easiest and lowest cost ways to participate in this area is through PowerShares

QQQ (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index. The Nasdaq is often considered to be a technology index,

but although technology is a big part of the index, it’s more diversified than many people think, covering 100 large domestic and

international companies. QQQ has 66% in information technology, 16% in consumer discretionary and 11% in health care.

The Nasdaq also tends to avoid financial firms and this has helped performance lately as financials were one of the

worst performing areas in 2011. While

there are many Nasdaq index funds,

QQQ is very liquid and one of the most

actively traded ETFs available.

Dividend-focused funds and ETFs like

WisdomTree Dividend ex-Financial

(DTN)were among 2010’s best performing

diversified funds. With so much uncer-

tainty and volatility in the market, divi-

dends offer investors a buffer against poten-

tial declines as well as a decent yield. Some

large, good dividend-paying stocks have

yields higher than Treasuries.

DTN is made up of the 10 highest divi-

dend-yielding companies in each sector, but

it avoids financial stocks—a good move in

2011 when financial stocks lagged. The

ETF’s portfolio is concentrated (35%) in two

leading areas of the market: utilities and

consumer staples, both defensive areas that

held up well in 2011’s volatile markets.

While some ETFs are small and thinly

traded, DTN has a solid trading history

and good liquidity. We’ve held the fund

since June 2011 and will continue to hold

it as long as it keeps outperforming its

peers. DTN gained 9.1% for the 12-

months ending December 15, 2011.









GURU: RICHARD SUTTMEIER, VALUTRADER PORTFOLIORECOMMENDATIONS: AMAZON.COM, SCHLUMBERGER

My “buy and trade” strategy is based upon having good until cancelled (GTC) limit

orders to buy weakness to value levels and to sell strength to risky levels on stocks rated

BUY according to ValuEngine.

Amazon.com (AMZN) is currently a member of the ValuTrader model portfolio returning on December 14 at

$177.25. The prior “buy and trade” strategy was a buy at $183.52 the day after Thanksgiving on weakness following

tepid holiday sales estimates. The stock rallied to a risky level at $198.86 on December 5 for a gain of 8.4%. Ama-

zon.com is the preferred retailer for online sales all year long, plus it’s a tech stock with its hot holiday product—the

Kindle Fire. There will be “buy and trade” levels between $163.75 and $230.00 in 2012.

Schlumberger (SLB) is currently a member of the ValuTrader model portfolio returning on November 23, 2011

at $66.85. This stock tracks the ups and downs of crude oil making it a great “buy and trade” stock. The prior “buy and

trade” strategy for this stock was an exit at a risky level at $74.68 on October 27 for a gain of 6.3%.






GURU: KEN KAM, SWAN ADVISORYRECOMMENDATIONS: MASTERCARD, CHINA MOBILE

MasterCard (MA) and Visa are the only two companies that can economically process credit

and debit card transactions on a global scale. Visa is the larger company today, but MasterCard is

gaining market share largely because it has won virtually all of the major co-branding deals announced in China

in 2011. The volume of transactions that these Chinese consumers can generate is the reason to prefer Master-

Card over Visa.

China Mobile ADR (CHL) has just below 640 million mobile telephone customers in China. The significant cost

of upgrading its network from 2G to 3G has made it look unattractive in the past. However, now that the upgrade is

finished, we are about to see the benefits. The new network was a good investment because it enables CHL to offer its

640 million customers a wide variety of additional services for which it can change an additional $2 to $5 per month.







GURU: JIM LOWELL, FIDELITY INVESTOR; FORBES ETF ADVISORRECOMMENDATIONS: DIA, HYG, VWO, EMB, FGRTX, SPHIX,FTEMX

If 2011 was a slim pickings’ picnic, many are saying 2012 will be nothing more than the ants.

Not me. I know the macro issues we’ll have to invest through; ongoing euro zone crisis, escalating U.S. class warfare

rhetoric, another Arab Spring. But don’t forget that 2011 also taught us that even though one major piece of the

global economy was broken, our own economy was able to maintain a remarkable slow growth, not no growth mend-

ing. And emerging market economies continued to grow even as their markets were thrown out with the euro zone

bathwater. I see the same themes in 2012—with a bit more risk of missing upside economic and market surprises.

For battleship balance sheets, battened down, recession tested management, and dividend yields giving bonds of

most types a run for their money, I like the mega-cap apex of the U.S. marketplace best. To invest in it, I’d recommend


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the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA). The behemoths herein have a global reach with a defensive base:

IBM (11%), Chevron (7%), McDonald’s (6%), Caterpillar (6%), Exxon Mobil (5%) are the top five holdings amount-

ing to 35% of DIA’s assets. To counterbalance the risk of a stock misstep, I also like a chicken hearted way to play my

stock market and the recovery themes: junk bonds.

Compared to stocks, there’s a risk advantage to them. Compared to bond yields, ditto. I like the iShares Corporate

High Yield (HYG) exchange-traded fund offering. The key in reducing the nascent risk in junk bonds is diversifica-

tion; HYG has been delivering just that since its inception back in April, 2007. For a safety-mined contrarian, global

growth play, I like Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets (VWO) paired with the iShares Emerging Market Bond

(EMB) as a way to barbell risk and returns in the ever volatile but also ever growing emerging markets. My Forbes ETF

Advisor 2012 portfolio picks: DIA (50%), HYG (30%), VWO (10%) and EMB (10%).





My preference in the mega cap stock active management space is Fidelity Mega Cap Stock (FGRTX), run by a

savvy large-cap stock selector, Matt Fruhan, who is relatively new to this fund (he took it over in April, 2009) has a long

and good track record running Fidelity Large Cap Stock (FLCSX) since May, 2005). Top holdings: Apple, Wells Fargo,

Exxon, JP Morgan Chase, Chevron, GE, Google, Procter & Gamble, Cisco and Microsoft.

My actively managed fund pick: Fidelity High Income (SPHIX). For a safety-mined contrarian, global growth

play, I like Fidelity’s newest offering: Total Emerging Market (FTEMX), the first truly balanced emerging market fund

run by one of the most experienced and expert managers of both, John Carlson, is way to barbell risk and returns in

the ever volatile but also ever growing emerging markets. My Fidelity Investor 2012 picks: FGRTX (50%), SPHIX

(30%), FTEMX (20%).

Don't go into the market alone. Forbes offersmore than 40 investment newsletter advisoryservices that provide detailed model portfo-lios and focus on asset classes from fixed-income securities to small-cap stocks, op-tions, technology, international stocks,precious metals, energy, ETFs and manymore. CLICK HERE to learn more.




RECOMMENDATION PAGE

Acacia Research (ACTG) 5

Acme Packet (APKT) 27

Amazon.com (AMZN) 29

AudioCodes (AUDC) 27

Avis Budget Group (CAR) 16

Broadcom (BRCM) 25

Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP-UN.TO) 15

Cemex (CX) 19

China Mobile (CHL) 30

Compugen (CGEN) 25

Comstock Homebuilding (CHCI) 18

ConocoPhillips (COP) 4

CVS Caremark (CVS) 3

Enbridge (ENB) 15

Evogene (EVGN.TA) 25

EZChip (EZCH) 25

Fidelity High Income (SPHIX) 33

Fidelity Mega Cap Stock (FGRTX) 33

Fidelity Total Emerging Market (FTEMX) 33

Foot Locker (FL) 8

GSE Systems (GVP) 18

Iamgold Corp. (IAG) 8

Intel (INTC) 9, 26

iShares Corporate High Yield (HYG) 32

iShares Emerging Market Bond (EMB) 32

Just Energy (JSTEF) 7

RECOMMENDATION PAGE

Kellogg Company (K) 13

MasterCard (MA) 30

Mellanox Technologies (MLNX) 25

MercadoLibre (MELI) 19

OfficeMax (OMX) 20

PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) 28

Red Hat (RHT) 11

Research In Motion (RIMM) 24

Ross Stores (ROST) 20

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-B) 14

Schlumberger (SLB) 29

Seaspan Series-C (SSW-PC) 13

Ship Finance International (SFL) 6

Smithfield Foods 7.75% Bonds 23

Southern Company (SO) 22

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) 32

StoneMor Partners (STON) 7

SuperValu (SVU) 16, 24

Tesoro 6.50% Bonds 23

Toll Brothers (TOL) 21

TowerJazz (TSEM) 26

Twin Disc 5

UBS E-Tracs 2x Wells Fargo Bus. Dev. (BDCL) 12

Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets (VWO) 32

Walgreen (WAG) 10

Wave Systems (WAVX) 27

WisdomTree Dividend Ex-Financial (DTN) 28

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