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Presenta(ontoSDVGVentureSummitRogerMcNamee
Eleva(onPartners
TenHypothesesforTechInves1ng
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Investorsandentrepreneursriskmissing
ahugebusinessopportunitybecause
theyareusingthewrongvocabulary
Hypothesis#
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Internet
WorldWideWebHTML4
998-2006:Internet+Web
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Internet
WorldWide
Web
HTML4
AppModel
Carriers+WiFi
2007-Present:TwoSeparateMarkets
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WorldWide
Web
HTML4
AppModel
Internet Carriers+WiFi
2007-Present:Hypernet+Hyperweb
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Hyperweb
Hypernet
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Businessesareadop(ngconsumer
technologybecauseitischeapertobuy,
cheapertosupport,andworksbeOer.
Hypothesis#2
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Web=OnlyHalfofAddressableMarket
Hypernet
HTML4
Windows/IE
Mac/Safari
Search:Google
AppModel
+Carriers
Units/$===>
AppModel
iS
Android
Search:Apps
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Indexsearchs(llcontrolswiredweb;in
mobile,usecasesandbehaviorsare
different,resul(ngindifferentwinners
Hypothesis#3
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AppsReplaceGoogleforMobileSearch
Hypernet
HTML4
100searches
AppModel
+Carriers
Units/$===>
AppModel
iPad:10
iPhone:1
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Hypernet
Google
MicrosoX
Facebook
CiscoOracle/Sun
SAP
Intel
Apple
Verizon
ATT
PublishersAmazon
B&N
WebWinnersHaveFailedtoProfitFromMobile
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Applesucceededbyhidingtechnology
whereverpossible...andsubs(tu(ng
style.
Hypothesis#4
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Hypernet
HTML4
pensource
Longtail
FreeCommodi(zed
WildWest
AppModel
+Carriers
Units/$===>
AppModel
iS
Branded
Free+PaidDifferen(ated
Secure
$400-1,000
CustomersDontLovetheWeb
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Nextgenera(onwebtechnologywill
favorpublishers/consumersovermiddle
men
Hypothesis#5
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Commodity
Content
HTML4Web
AppModel Future:HTML5
TechPendulumEnablingMoreContentDifferen1a1on
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Differen(ated
Content
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HTML4Web
Engagement:MetricofValueforContent
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iOS HTML5Web
15-20secs/story
2-5mins/app
????
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Flash
Flash
Flash
Flash
HTML4-Today HTML5-2014
HTML4
HTML4
HTML4
HTML4
HTML4
HTML5
HTML5=HigherProduc1onValues,LowerCost
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HTML5enables
everythingtobean
app,includingads
Adscanbe@ed
directlytocontent
Itmaybe2-3years
beforeHTML5tools
willenablethis
HTML5=EngagementandMone1za1on
STRY
Product1Product2
Product3
Product1*Product2*
Product3*
Adver(sement
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1. App:func@onslikeana@veapp
2.eBook:somethingtoreadlater
3. Bookmark+:contentavailable
forlaterreference
4. Layers
HTML5AppsMayHaveMul1pleForms
STRY
Product1Product2
Product3
Ticker1*Ticker2*
Ticker3*
StockTrading
App
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INFGRAPHIC
2
1
34
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1. Appdelivery2. eBook:atomiza@on
ofcontentenablesincrementalrevenue
3. Contentavailableforlaterreferencecan
includemone@za@on
4. Layerscanincludemone@za@on
Mul1pleFormsofHighValueMone1za1on
STRY
Product1Product2
Product3
Ticker1*Ticker2*
Ticker3*
StockTrading
App
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INFGRAPHIC
2
1
34
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World
Wide
Web
HTML4
AppModel
Units/$===>
HTML5
Google Apple ???
Content=
Commodity
Content=
Limited
Differen1a1on
Content=
Unlimited
Differen1a1on
Desktops SmartPhones Future
HTML5=WideOpenOpportunity
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Advantage
Scale
OpenSource
Cost
Control
Economics
Func1onality
iOS
???
HTML5
???
HTML5vsNa1veApps
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World
Wide
Web
HTML4
AppModel
Units/$===>
HTML5
Google Apple ???
Content=
Commodity
Content=
Limited
Differen1a1on
Content=
Unlimited
Differen1a1on
Desktops SmartPhones Future
HTML5=WideOpenOpportunity
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Childrenundertheageof8maynever
useaPCthewayyoudo.
Hypothesis#6
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AnEight-YearOldsIdeaofaComputer
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Androidhasabrokeneconomicmodel;
cannotcompetewithAppleinthelong
term
Hypothesis#7
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COGS
COGS
Apple Android
Applesgrossmarginisroughlyequaltogross
revenuesforacomparableAndroid
BrandisaHUGEAdvantage
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Android=EntropyatHighVelocity
Amazon
Barnes&NobleSamsung
Verizon
riginalAndroid
Standard
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Content Coolfactor
Techheatseeker
Inexpensive
SmartPhonePurchaseDrivers
Apple Android
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SocialandMobilearenowacost,not
acompe((veadvantage
Hypothesis#8
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TheCloudwillbehighlydistributed.
Homecloudsmayprovetobethemost
valuable.
Hypothesis#9
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Content Coolfactor
Compe11onintheCloud
AppleGoogle
Amazon
Microso
SAP
Nelix
vvvv
v
v
PrivateandHomeClouds
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Disrup(onofcable,satellite,andeven
NetFlixisbeginning.
Hypothesis#0
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USeconomyisbeginningtoimprove,despiteeffortsinWashingtontoreducedeficit
DJIA,S&P,Nasdaqreflectrisingop(mism Unemploymentremainshigh;possiblystructural
Excessiveconsumerindebtednessactsasadragongrowth Governmentdeficitsactasadragonfuturegrowth
Warscompeteforresourceswithprivateeconomy IsIrannext?
Investorchallenge:whatisthehappyending?
Economic&MarketEnvironment
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Content Coolfactor
Techheatseeker
Inexpensive
Onward!!
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