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2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing

Apr 05, 2018

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Paolo Caputo
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  • 7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing

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    Presenta(ontoSDVGVentureSummitRogerMcNamee

    Eleva(onPartners

    TenHypothesesforTechInves1ng

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    Investorsandentrepreneursriskmissing

    ahugebusinessopportunitybecause

    theyareusingthewrongvocabulary

    Hypothesis#

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    Internet

    WorldWideWebHTML4

    998-2006:Internet+Web

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    Internet

    WorldWide

    Web

    HTML4

    AppModel

    Carriers+WiFi

    2007-Present:TwoSeparateMarkets

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 5

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    WorldWide

    Web

    HTML4

    AppModel

    Internet Carriers+WiFi

    2007-Present:Hypernet+Hyperweb

    5/4/2012 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 6

    Hyperweb

    Hypernet

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    Businessesareadop(ngconsumer

    technologybecauseitischeapertobuy,

    cheapertosupport,andworksbeOer.

    Hypothesis#2

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    Web=OnlyHalfofAddressableMarket

    Hypernet

    HTML4

    Windows/IE

    Mac/Safari

    Search:Google

    AppModel

    +Carriers

    Units/$===>

    AppModel

    iS

    Android

    Search:Apps

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 8

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    Indexsearchs(llcontrolswiredweb;in

    mobile,usecasesandbehaviorsare

    different,resul(ngindifferentwinners

    Hypothesis#3

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    AppsReplaceGoogleforMobileSearch

    Hypernet

    HTML4

    100searches

    AppModel

    +Carriers

    Units/$===>

    AppModel

    iPad:10

    iPhone:1

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 10

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    Hypernet

    Google

    MicrosoX

    Facebook

    CiscoOracle/Sun

    SAP

    Intel

    Apple

    Verizon

    ATT

    PublishersAmazon

    B&N

    WebWinnersHaveFailedtoProfitFromMobile

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 11

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    Applesucceededbyhidingtechnology

    whereverpossible...andsubs(tu(ng

    style.

    Hypothesis#4

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    Hypernet

    HTML4

    pensource

    Longtail

    FreeCommodi(zed

    WildWest

    AppModel

    +Carriers

    Units/$===>

    AppModel

    iS

    Branded

    Free+PaidDifferen(ated

    Secure

    $400-1,000

    CustomersDontLovetheWeb

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee

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    Nextgenera(onwebtechnologywill

    favorpublishers/consumersovermiddle

    men

    Hypothesis#5

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    Commodity

    Content

    HTML4Web

    AppModel Future:HTML5

    TechPendulumEnablingMoreContentDifferen1a1on

    5/4/2012 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 15

    Differen(ated

    Content

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    HTML4Web

    Engagement:MetricofValueforContent

    4/4/2012 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 16

    iOS HTML5Web

    15-20secs/story

    2-5mins/app

    ????

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    Flash

    Flash

    Flash

    Flash

    HTML4-Today HTML5-2014

    HTML4

    HTML4

    HTML4

    HTML4

    HTML4

    HTML5

    HTML5=HigherProduc1onValues,LowerCost

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 18

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    HTML5enables

    everythingtobean

    app,includingads

    Adscanbe@ed

    directlytocontent

    Itmaybe2-3years

    beforeHTML5tools

    willenablethis

    HTML5=EngagementandMone1za1on

    STRY

    Product1Product2

    Product3

    Product1*Product2*

    Product3*

    Adver(sement

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 19

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    1. App:func@onslikeana@veapp

    2.eBook:somethingtoreadlater

    3. Bookmark+:contentavailable

    forlaterreference

    4. Layers

    HTML5AppsMayHaveMul1pleForms

    STRY

    Product1Product2

    Product3

    Ticker1*Ticker2*

    Ticker3*

    StockTrading

    App

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 20

    INFGRAPHIC

    2

    1

    34

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    1. Appdelivery2. eBook:atomiza@on

    ofcontentenablesincrementalrevenue

    3. Contentavailableforlaterreferencecan

    includemone@za@on

    4. Layerscanincludemone@za@on

    Mul1pleFormsofHighValueMone1za1on

    STRY

    Product1Product2

    Product3

    Ticker1*Ticker2*

    Ticker3*

    StockTrading

    App

    5/4/12HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee

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    INFGRAPHIC

    2

    1

    34

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    World

    Wide

    Web

    HTML4

    AppModel

    Units/$===>

    HTML5

    Google Apple ???

    Content=

    Commodity

    Content=

    Limited

    Differen1a1on

    Content=

    Unlimited

    Differen1a1on

    Desktops SmartPhones Future

    HTML5=WideOpenOpportunity

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 22

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    Advantage

    Scale

    OpenSource

    Cost

    Control

    Economics

    Func1onality

    iOS

    ???

    HTML5

    ???

    HTML5vsNa1veApps

    5/4/12HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee

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    World

    Wide

    Web

    HTML4

    AppModel

    Units/$===>

    HTML5

    Google Apple ???

    Content=

    Commodity

    Content=

    Limited

    Differen1a1on

    Content=

    Unlimited

    Differen1a1on

    Desktops SmartPhones Future

    HTML5=WideOpenOpportunity

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 24

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    Childrenundertheageof8maynever

    useaPCthewayyoudo.

    Hypothesis#6

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    AnEight-YearOldsIdeaofaComputer

    5/4/12HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee

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    Androidhasabrokeneconomicmodel;

    cannotcompetewithAppleinthelong

    term

    Hypothesis#7

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    COGS

    COGS

    Apple Android

    Applesgrossmarginisroughlyequaltogross

    revenuesforacomparableAndroid

    BrandisaHUGEAdvantage

    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 28

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    5/4/12

    HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee

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    Android=EntropyatHighVelocity

    Amazon

    Barnes&NobleSamsung

    Verizon

    riginalAndroid

    Standard

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    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 30

    Content Coolfactor

    Techheatseeker

    Inexpensive

    SmartPhonePurchaseDrivers

    Apple Android

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    SocialandMobilearenowacost,not

    acompe((veadvantage

    Hypothesis#8

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    TheCloudwillbehighlydistributed.

    Homecloudsmayprovetobethemost

    valuable.

    Hypothesis#9

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    33

    Content Coolfactor

    Compe11onintheCloud

    AppleGoogle

    Amazon

    Microso

    SAP

    Nelix

    vvvv

    v

    v

    PrivateandHomeClouds

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    Disrup(onofcable,satellite,andeven

    NetFlixisbeginning.

    Hypothesis#0

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    USeconomyisbeginningtoimprove,despiteeffortsinWashingtontoreducedeficit

    DJIA,S&P,Nasdaqreflectrisingop(mism Unemploymentremainshigh;possiblystructural

    Excessiveconsumerindebtednessactsasadragongrowth Governmentdeficitsactasadragonfuturegrowth

    Warscompeteforresourceswithprivateeconomy IsIrannext?

    Investorchallenge:whatisthehappyending?

    Economic&MarketEnvironment

    3/19/12 "TenHypotheses"byRogerMcNamee 35

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    5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 36

    Content Coolfactor

    Techheatseeker

    Inexpensive

    Onward!!

    hOp://www.moonalice.com

    hOp://www.eleva(on.com