2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)

2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)

Shirley MurilloNOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division

65th IHC (2011), Miami, FL

IFEX Goals

• Intended to improve prediction of TC intensity change by: 1. collecting observations throughout the TC life cycle for

model initialization and evaluation2. developing and refining measurement technologies for

real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment

3. improving understanding of physical processes important in TC intensity change

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2011 IFEX Plans

• Continue addressing IFEX/HFIP goals• Sustain our partnerships with EMC and NESDIS– Continue TDR missions and real-time Doppler data

transmission– Collaborate with NESDIS – Ocean Winds Experiment– Coordinate with 53rd on float/drifter deployments

• Strengthen our interactions with NHC• Encourage greater awareness in broader TC community

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Intensity change is a multi-scale process

• Sample TCs and the environment on all scales

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Atmospheric ScalesMicro mm - cmTurbulent m – kmConvective 100 m – 5 kmVortex 1 – 100 kmEnvironment 100-10,000 km

Micro Turb.Conv.

Vortex

Enviro.

Ocean Enviro

Rapid Int

Cloud Phys

Tail Doppler Radar

Genesis

Hur Bndy LyrExtra TropEye Mix

DWLSUAVE

Dry Air Intru

Ocean Winds

IFEX 2011 Flight Experiments

Goal 1

Goal 2

Goal 3

IFEX

Landfall

Tail Doppler Radar Experiment (TDR)PIs: John Gamache & Vijay Tallapragada (EMC)

• Provide a comprehensive wind data set for initialization and evaluation of hurricane models (e.g. HWRF)

• Provide data sets to increase understanding of intensity change, using regular, periodic, collection

• 2 P-3 Flights per day--on-station time centered on 0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC analysis periods -optimum 3 days of flights in a row starting at tropical depression or maybe pre-depression stage

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Resulting data analyses from TDR missions

• Assimilation development at HRD• Composite storm-structure studies• Observing System Experiments (OSEs)• Evaluation of error characteristics of airborne

Doppler data and analyses

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GPS antenna and Autopilot

SatCom antenna

MIST Sonde sensor

UAS – Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Experiment (SUAVE)Reusable Instrumented Collapsible Onboard Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Experiment RICO SUAVE

• Released from P-3 free–fall AXBT chute• Loiter in the eye or eyewall region in mature storms• Provide high-res near surface obs of (V, P, T and RH)

Eyewall

Eyewall

PI: Joe Cione

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Module (Option 1)

Module (Option 2)

Module (Option 1) cross section

constant altitude at ~1.5 km

Hurricane PBL Entrainment FluxPIs: Jun Zhang and Gary Barnes (UH)

Sample the momentum and enthalpy fluxes across the top of the hurricane PBL

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60 km60

km

> 30 km

GPS sonde locations

HBL Turbulent Processes Module

• Document physical characteristics of small-scale features of the HBL • Estimate their impact on the kinematics and thermodynamics fields of the HBL• Doppler Wind Lidar: Detect winds and aerosols both above (up to ~14 km in the presence of high level cirrus) and below (down to ~100 m above the ocean surface) the aircraft flight level (typically 3-5 km)• Vertical resolution: ~50 m; Horizontal spacing: ~2 km for u, v, and w wind profiles

PIs: Sylvie Lorsolo and Dave Emmitt (Simpson Wea. Assoc.)

Option 1: Box transect

Option 2: Square-spiral or lawnmower pattern

Dry Air Intrusion Experiment

GPS dropsonde transects across the arc cloud feature (~20 nm spacing)

Modified G-IV star pattern to emphasize sampling in upshear semicircles/quadrants

PI: Jason Dunion

Sample the dry air using G-IV and coordinating flight with P-3

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2011 IFEX Logistics

• ~250 hours total for all aircraft• N42RF (P-3) will be available by early June, N43RF

available early July, N49RF (G-IV) available early June• Crews available for two-per-day missions starting

early July (Tampa and deployments)• Window of Operations = June – early Nov.

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Thanks!