Cliff Brewis Senior Director Editorial Operations McGraw-Hill Construction 2011 Outlook for U.S. Construction
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Cliff Brewis Senior Director Editorial Operations McGraw-Hill Construction
2011 Outlook forU.S. Construction
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What Do We Expect? The U.S. recession – began Dec. 2007, ended June 2009.
GDP Pattern:
History Forecast
2008 2009 2010 2011
0.0% -2.6% +2.6% +3.0%
Real GDP Growth - Quarterly
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Annualized Percent Change '10 Q2
+1.7%
3
What is the Biggest Concern?
Change in Total Employment
-750
-600
-450
-300
-150
0
150
300
450
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Thousands of Workers
8.4 million jobs lostJan.'08- Dec. '09
Jan-Sept '10 +68,000/ mo
Change in Private Employment
-750
-600
-450
-300
-150
0
150
300
450
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Thousands of Workers
8.5 million jobs lostJan.'08- Dec. '09
Jan-Sept.'10 +96,000/ mo
4
LA/Orange: Single Family Housing
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($000.00)
5
LA/Orange: Multi Family Housing
$0$500,000
$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$3,000,000$3,500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($000.00)
6
LA/Orange: Retail
($000.00)
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
7
LA/Orange: Offices
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($000.00)
8
LA/Orange: Education
$0$500,000
$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$3,000,000$3,500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($000.00)
9
LA/Orange: Health Care
($000.00)
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10
LA/Orange: Highways
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($000.00)
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LA/Orange: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011EDUC $2,003,465 $1,926,043 $3,241,183 $1,155,466 $1,508,149 $1,566,204
96.1% 168.3% 35.6% 130.5% 103.8%HEALTH $602,155 $393,261 $384,557 $987,267 $421,003 $448,291
65.3% 97.8% 256.7% 42.6% 106.5%HIGHWAY $861,783 $801,558 $771,075 $1,045,092 $734,732 $901,542
93.0% 96.2% 135.5% 70.3% 122.7%HOTEL $402,164 $746,149 $166,785 $55,279 $51,606 $88,464
185.5% 22.4% 33.1% 93.4% 171.4%MULTI RES $3,216,022 $2,711,035 $1,736,899 $278,179 $403,915 $540,216
84.3% 64.1% 16.0% 145.2% 133.7%OFFICE $1,074,289 $766,938 $428,160 $322,480 $186,971 $206,153
71.4% 55.8% 75.3% 58.0% 110.3%ONEFAM $3,380,418 $2,540,555 $1,480,877 $1,267,419 $1,489,110 $1,578,737
75.2% 58.3% 85.6% 117.5% 106.0%PUB $491,631 $112,603 $170,043 $105,171 $83,582 $73,242
22.9% 151.0% 61.8% 79.5% 87.6%RETAIL $614,343 $670,760 $739,080 $281,545 $269,955 $304,951
109.2% 110.2% 38.1% 95.9% 113.0%WATER $342,038 $269,706 $551,484 $362,984 $333,113 $410,075
78.9% 204.5% 65.8% 91.8% 123.1%TOTAL $16,766,525 $15,552,516 $13,202,299 $8,810,255 $9,156,335 $9,480,130
92.8% 84.9% 66.7% 103.9% 103.5%($000.00)
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U.S. Total Construction Starts for 2011Billions of Dollars
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Construction 641.7 555.2 420.7 411.3 445.5 -7% -13% -24% -2% +8%
Single Family Housing 201.2 122.4 94.3 100.0 126.7-26% -39% -23% +6% +27%
Multifamily Housing 60.9 38.7 17.4 19.1 23.6-13% -36% -55% +9 +24%
Commercial Bldgs. 101.0 81.6 46.7 38.8 44.9+9% -19% -43% -17% +16%
Institutional Bldgs. 117.7 130.4 111.2 103.6 102.7+6% +11% -15% -7%-1%
Manufacturing Bldgs. 20.8 29.6 9.7 8.5 9.2 +54 +42% -67% -12% +9%
Public Works 121.3 121.0 121.6 123.6 122.3 +8% -0- -0- +2% -1%
Electric Utilities 18.8 31.4 19.8 17.7 16.0+7% +67% -37% -11% -10%
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