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This presentation was prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. exclusively for the benefit and internal use of Regional Technical Forum and/or its affiliates or subsidiaries. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside these organization(s) without prior written approval from Navigant Consulting, Inc. The work presented in this report represents our best efforts and judgments based on the information available at the time this report was prepared. Navigant Consulting, Inc. is not responsible for the reader’s use of, or reliance upon, the report, nor any decisions based on the report.
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•Navigant presented the residential freezers measure on the Sept 18th, 2012 RTF meeting.
•Actions taken to bring the measure into compliance:
• Updated freezer list to include the latest models in the CEC database
• Updated adjusted freezer volume and chest freezer distribution based on 2012 CEC and 2012 RBSA data, respectively
• Updated Energy Star freezer market penetration
• The RTF voted to keep the measure under review with the current savings estimates until such time as an update with the new Energy Star specification can be completed.
• Current update: The effective date for the Energy Star Standards has been changed from January 1, 2013 to March 1, 2014. Additionally, EnergyStar has indicated that freezers may be phased out of the specification at that time. Therefore, Navigant proposes updating the measure with updated savings information now and to set March 1, 2014 as the sunset criteria for this measure.
Any= no Tier; T1= Tier 1 (10%-15% more efficient than federal standard ; T2= Tier2 (15%-20% more efficient than federal standard); T3= Tier 3 (20%-25% more efficient than federal standard);T4-Tier 4; (25%-30% more efficient than federal standard);T5= Tier 5 (30%-35% more efficient than federal standard)
Before and After Update Incremental Cost Comparison
Prior to Update Current Update
Incr
emen
tal C
ost (
$/U
nit)
Any= no Tier; T1= Tier 1 (10%-15% more efficient than federal standard ; T2= Tier2 (15%-20% more efficient than federal standard); T3= Tier 3 (20%-25% more efficient than federal standard);T4-Tier 4; (25%-30% more efficient than federal standard);T5= Tier 5 (30%-35% more efficient than federal standard)
Any= no Tier; T1= Tier 1 (10%-15% more efficient than federal standard ; T2= Tier2 (15%-20% more efficient than federal standard); T3= Tier 3 (20%-25% more efficient than federal standard);T4-Tier 4; (25%-30% more efficient than federal standard);T5= Tier 5 (30%-35% more efficient than federal standard)
“I _________ move that the RTF approve the updated analysis for the Residential Freezer UES Measure and change this “Proven” category measure’s status to “Active”, with a sunset date of March 1, 2014.”
Improvements made to ducts in existing manufactured homes to reduce air leakage. Duct sealing must be carried out in accordance with the PTCS (Performance Tested Comfort Sealing) duct sealing specification.
Workbook calculation errors in the SEEM workbook need to be fixed.
Recommendation Memo Completed
Workbook structure and formulae need to be updated to link to latest SEEM workbook, Pro-Cost models need to be rerun, and the measure needs to be re-analyzed using the latest version of SEEM
Recommendation Memo Completed
Documentation updates include verifying and documenting baseline and post condition duct leakage fraction assumptions.
Recommendation Memo Completed
Update EUL Summary Table NWPCC Completed
Update Cost Summary Table NWPCCCompleted
Present supply leakage fraction (SLF) distribution and energy savings for single-wide manufactured homes and larger (“other”) manufactured homes separately
• Per RTF’s request, separated the manufactured home duct sealing data into two categories:
• Single-wide manufactured homes
• “Other” larger manufactured homes
• The groups were disaggregated as such due to differences in duct characteristics between the two groups, specifically the presence of a crossover duct, and the magnitude of energy savings.
• A cut-off point of 1,000 square feet was used to separate the two groups based on an estimate from Bruce Manclark1.
• Navigant compared the SLF distributions of the single-wide and “other” datasets to the original aggregated dataset presented at the last meeting. Navigant found no significant difference between the SLF distributions; however, due to the difference in savings between the single-wide and “other” groups, Navigant proposes keeping the two categories separate, but also offering an “any size” option by weighting to average size from program data.1 Larger single-wide homes tend to be on the order of 72'x14' (1,008 sq.ft.), while smaller double-wide homes start around 48'x24' (1152 sq. ft.).
COOLING Savings Results Comparison (based on splitting all manufactured homes into “single-wide” and “other”)
Residential Manufactured Home Duct Sealing
Heating Zone 1 Heating Zone 2 Heating Zone 3 Heating Zone 1 Heating Zone 2 Heating Zone 3Average Heating System Heating Systems w/ Cooling
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Any Manufactured Home Single-Wide( <= 1,000 sq ft) Other (> 1,000 sq ft)
Cool
ing
Savi
ngs
(kw
h/ye
ar)
Note: Average Heating System cooling savings are equal to 40% of Heating Systems w/ Cooling, to reflect the split of homes with (40%) and without (60%) cooling systems, as per SEEM model assumptions.
“I _________ move that the RTF approve the updated analysis for the Residential Manufactured Housing Duct Sealing Measure and change this “Proven” category measure’s status to “Active” with a sunset date of August 2, 2015.”
Refrigerator/Freezer Decommissioning Measure Actions Taken Since Last Meeting
• Reviewed comments received
• Developed matrix to facilitate discussion
• Discussed issues and concerns with the RTF subcommittee on 11/6
• Resolved issues and came to consensus on the resolutions
• Current model shows general alignment with the UMP model with the following differences: o The RTF model data is based on multiple impact evaluation studies
in the region, while the UMP protocol is geared more toward the impact evaluation of a specific program.
o The RTF model accounts net savings in the front end of the model, while the UMP protocol accounts net savings in the back end of the model. This calculation difference does not yield significantly different UES values.
o The RTF model separates R1 and R2 values explicitly, while for the UMP protocol, the R2 value is embedded in free ridership calculation.
Current Approach Comments Received Key Discussion Resolution
• Using Nevada Energy ARP 2010 M&V value. 0.99 (Refrigerator); 0.94 (Freezer).
• Values seem high based on other study results.
• Consider using PNW specific data.
• Weight input by program participation.
• Consider using PNW specific data including M&V results of the following studies: PacifiCorp- Washington (2010-2011); PacifiCorp- Idaho (2010-2011); Avista (2010-2011); ETO (PY 2011).
• Weighting values by program participation is reasonable.
• Navigant will use the weighted average approach.
• Navigant will work with JACO to develop a weighted average specific to the region based on program participation.
Current Approach Comments Received Key Discussion Resolution
• Simple average of data from Com Ed, ETO, PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E. Refrigerator value is 59%, freezer value is 69%.
• Consider using PNW specific data developed in 2011 which has newer data than the California studies.
• Weight value based on program participation.
• Acknowledge uncertainties surrounding survey questions and respondents’ perception of the questions.
• While the California studies utilized in the current analysis have a longer set of questions compared to the PNW studies, the methodology are consistent.
• The “left on grid” values should not include spillover effects.
• Navigant will use the weighted average approach.
•Navigant will work with JACO to develop a weighted average specific to the region based on program participation.
• The value will be updated using PNW studies only.
Current Approach Comments Received Key Discussion Resolution
• Simple average of data from ETO 2011, SnoPUD 2006, and PG&E/SCE/SDG&E 2004-2005, REF value is 10%, FRZ value is 14%.
• Consider using PNW specific data developed in 2011.
• Weight value based on program participation.
• The “kept and used” value specifically addressed units that would have been kept and used by the owner of the recycled unit if program was unavailable.
• The PacifiCorp studies suggested by JACO have the appropriate “kept and used” value.
• The value from the Avista study should be modified to only include the percentage of units that would have been kept and used by the owner.
• Navigant will use the weighted average approach.
•Navigant will work with JACO to develop a weighted average specific to the region based on program participation.
• Cadmus will derive the “kept and used” value from the Avista study.
R2 Value- Replacement Associated with the Would Have Recipients of the “Sold/Donated” Units Recycled through the Programs
Refrigerator and Freezer Decommissioning
Current Approach Comments Received Key Discussion Resolution
• Replacement parameter based on ADM 2004-2005 California Statewide survey.
• This value is not utilized in EM&V studies conducted by ADM, Cadmus, and Navigant.
• Current UMP protocol suggests a value of 50%.
• Uncertainties associated with the ADM 2004-2005 survey questions and respondents pool.
• Acknowledge the existence of the issue, however, the R2 value is very difficult to get especially with uncertainties surrounding survey questions and how respondents could have difficulty answering the questions.
• Navigant will revise value to 50% in lieu of satisfactory data.
Current Approach Comments Received Key Discussion Resolution
• Navigant proposed the use of survival curves. Current analyses uses data from the 2003 SHEU (Natural Resources Canada) study. The survival curve is anchored to the DOE-sourced EUL.
• Uncertainties associated with survey questions from the 2003 SHEU.
• Consider using the ADM developed a remaining useful life schedule for the 2010 NV Energy M&V study.
• All proposed methods have certain levels of uncertainties.
• The DOE survival curve is derived from data from 5 national surveys conducted at different times. It is a good estimate of measure life.
• The varying of economic conditions over time might have impact on the shape factor of the survival curve.
• JACO, Navigant and RTF Staff will review the DOE survival curve methodology and provide feedback to the working group.