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World Wheat Supply andDemand SituationJuly 2011
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimatesreleased July 12, 2011. Projections will change over the course of the yeardepending on weather and other developments.
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Top Factors Affecting the Global Wheat Market in 2011/12
1. 2011/12 Production up, third largest wheat crop on record at 662 MMT Global supplies reach record 852 MMT; 1.0 MMT greater than previous record in 2009/10
Black Sea production rebounds, reaching 101 MMT compared to 81.0 MMT in 2010/112. Consumption sets record for fourth consecutive year, up 2% from 2010/11
3. World wheat trade projected at 130 MMT, third largest amount on record
4. 2011 US plantings up 5% from 2010 US production falls due to lower yields; falls to 57.3 MMT from 60.1 MMT in 2010/11
Dry conditions reduce HRW production, falls 22% to 21.5 MMT
5. Cool temperatures delay spring wheat plantings in North America Canadian planting 86% complete compared to average 96% for second week of June
US spring wheat planting 88% complete compared to average 100% through June 12
US durum plantings fall 34% from previous year
6. EU production falls due to drought conditions in Western Europe EU production at 132.1 MMT, down 3% from 2010/11
7. World ending stocks fall 4% to 182 MMT Chinas ending stocks (64.6 MMT) account for 35% of total
Rest of World ending stocks fall from 130 MMT to 118 MMT
8. Competition for acres intensifies; U.S. corn stocks at 15-year low Environmental Protection Agency increases ethanol blend
Global corn demand reaches record 874 MMT
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Production, Consumption and Trade 2010/11 USDA estimates global production at 662 MMT, 3rd largest on record
Up 2% (14.2 MMT) from 2010/11 and 3% (17.7 MMT) greater than 5-year average Black Sea production rebounds to 101 MMT, up from 81.0 in 2010/11
Indian production reaches record 84.0 MMT, up 4% from 2010/11
Consumption to set record: up 2% Consumption rises 13.0 MMT to record 670 MMT
Trade expected to increase by 2% World trade projected at 130 MMT, third largest amount on record
Import projections Middle East up 4% to 13.8 MMT
Export forecasts Black Sea exports rebound, reaching 27.7 MMT, up from 13.9 MMT in 2010/11
Russian exports reach 12.0 MMT, up from 4.0 MMT in 2010/11 but below 5-year average of 12.8 MMT
EU exports fall 32%, from 22.0 MMT in 2010/11 to 15.0 MMT
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Stocks and Price 2010/11
World beginning stocks fall, but second highest inpast 5 years
Beginning stocks down 4% (8.3 MMT) from 2010/11 US beginning stocks at 23.4 MMT, 45% above 5-year average of 16.1 MMT
Global ending stocks fall 4% to 182 MMT
China ending stocks reach 64.6 MMT, accounting for 35% of global endingstocks
Rest of World stocks fall from 130 MMT to 118 MMT
U.S. farm gate prices forecasted at record
$6.60 to $8.00 /bushel ($243-$294/MT)**Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
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World Production and Use
648
662
657670
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
MMT
Production Use
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Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
60 70 45 6476 65
318 299 308
358 328 337
378369
353
423 403 402
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
Beginning Stocks Production
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World Wheat Supply and Demand
09/10 10/11 11/12MMT
SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 167 198 190
Production 684 648 662
Supply Total 851 847 852
TRADE: Exports/Imports 136 128 130
DEMAND Food & Seed 535 539 547
Feed & Residual 118 117 123
Use Total 653 657 670
ENDING STOCKS: 198 190 182
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Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
World Beginning Stocks
5531
48 56 48
17
13
2125
22
132
82
97
117120
0
50
100
150
200
250
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12
MMT
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others
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Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio
*Ending stocks
35
20
3029
27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12
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World Ending Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
47.9 42.2
22.020.0
59.955.4
60.164.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12
M
MT
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Other China
182187
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Global Ending Stocks and Price
42 52 42 31 42
2431
1913
20
71
99
108
82
120
322
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
83/84 87/88 91/92 95/96 99/00 03/04 07/08 11/12
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price
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World and U.S. WheatSupply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
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Canada Ending Stocks
9.7
4.4
6.5
7.8
6.2
4.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
MMT
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Australia Situation
3.6 4.1 4.2
21.9
26.0 25.0
17.5
17.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
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Australia Ending Stocks
5.4
9.4
4.03.6
4.1 4.24.3
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
MMT
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Argentina Situation
1.3 1.4 2.5
11.0
15.0
15.0
8.0
9.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
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Argentina Ending Stocks
0.4
0.6
2.4
1.31.4
2.52.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
MMT
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EU-27 Situation
18.9 16.0 11.7
138.7
135.7132.1
22.015.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
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EU-27 Ending Stocks
27.5
23.4
14.2
16.0
11.712.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
MMT
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Black Sea Region Situation
The Black Sea Region includes the Former Soviet Union, excluding the Baltic States
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black SeaRegion
21.3 25.3 22.0
113.9
81.099.5
13.9
27.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
MMT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
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Black Sea Exports
18.6
4.0
12.0
9.3
3.7
7.5
7.9
5.4
7.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
M
MT
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
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Black Sea Ending Stocks
15.6
11.4
13.0
25.3
22.0
20.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
MM
T
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U.S. Situation
13.417.9
26.6 23.4
63.8
60.4
60.1
57.3
24.0
35.0
31.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
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U.S. Ending Stocks
13.414.7
12.4
17.9
26.6
23.4
18.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
MMT
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World and U.S. Wheat
Supply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
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Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.011.0
Egypt EU-27 Brazil Indonesia Japan Algeria Nigeria S. Korea Iraq Mexico
MM
T
10/11 11/12
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Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat5-year average
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MMT
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Source: USDA FAS export sales report July 8, 2011
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat2010/11 vs. 2011/12
(year-to-date)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
M
MT
2010/11 2011/12
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Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat2009/10 vs. 2010/11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
MMT
2009/10 2010/11
Source: USDA FAS export sales report June 9, 2011
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World and U.S. Wheat
Supply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand
U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
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U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class
*Source: USDA Acreage Report, June 30, 2011
53.656.4
28.6 29.1
13.0 12.9
5.38.3
4.24.42.61.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Million
Acres
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
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U.S. Hard Red Winter
10 11
2822
17
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
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U.S. Hard Red Spring
65
1614
9 7
0
5
10
15
20
25
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
MMT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
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U.S. Soft Red Winter
7
5
612
34
0
5
10
15
20
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
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U.S. White
2 2
7
8
5
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
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U.S. Durum
0.9 1.0
2.9
1.7
0.9
1.0
1.2
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
MMT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
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U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date)
Source: USDA FAS export sales report July 8, 2011
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
M
MT
2011/12 2010/11
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U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
HRW HRS SRW SWW Durum
M
MT
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 11/12
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U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
10/11 11/12 10/11 11/12 10/11 11/12
Beginning Stocks 10.5 10.5 6.4 5.0 6.6 4.6
Production 27.7 21.5 15.5 13.7 6.5 12.5
Imports 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7Supply Total 38.2 32.1 22.7 19.6 13.8 17.8
Domestic Use 11.0 12.8 8.4 7.5 6.3 8.3
Exports 16.7 13.9 9.3 7.3 2.9 4.5
Use Total 27.7 26.6 17.7 14.9 9.2 12.8Ending Stocks 10.5 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.6 5.0
Stocks-to-Use 38% 20% 29% 32% 50% 39%
HRW HRS SRW
MMT
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U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
10/11 11/12 10/11 11/12 10/11 11/12
Beginning Stocks 2.2 2.3 1.0 1.0 26.6 23.4
Production 7.5 7.9 2.9 1.7 60.1 57.3
Imports 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.0 2.7 2.7Supply Total 9.9 10.4 4.8 3.6 89.4 83.5
Domestic Use 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.4 30.9 33.9
Exports 5.0 4.8 1.2 0.8 35.0 31.3
Use Total 7.5 7.6 3.8 3.3 65.9 65.2
Ending Stocks 2.3 2.8 1.0 0.4 23.4 18.3
Stocks-to-Use 31% 36% 25% 12% 36% 28%
White Durum Total
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U.S. FOB Gulf Prices
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11
$/Me
tricTon
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
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U.S. FOB PNW Prices
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11
$/MetricTon
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
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SRW and Soft White Prices
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11
$/MetricTon
SW SRW
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U.S. Gulf Basis Prices
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11
$/MetricTon
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
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U.S. PNW Basis Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11
$/Me
tricTon
HRS 14 HRW 12
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World and U.S. Wheat
Supply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
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U.S. Wheat Area and Production
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11
MT/
hectares
Production(MMT)a
ndHarvestedArea(m
h)
Harvested Area Production Yield
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U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
31.2
24.5
23.9
21.7
22.8
30.0
37.9
35.2
35.737.4
23.4
26.2
31.4
31.9
30.4
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12*
MillionH
ectares
Wheat Corn Soybeans
*Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 31, 2011
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World CornProduction, Use and Trade
820872843
878
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
Tra
de
(M
MT)
Pro
duc
tionand
Use
(MMT)
Production Use Trade
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World SoybeansProduction, Use and Trade
264
261
254
263
77
93 9398
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
Tra
de
(MMT)
Pro
duc
tionan
dUse
(MMT)
Production Use Trade
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Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
7/1
0/09
8/1
0/09
9/1
0/09
10/1
0/09
11/1
0/09
12/1
0/09
1/1
0/10
2/1
0/10
3/1
0/10
4/1
0/10
5/1
0/10
6/1
0/10
7/1
0/10
8/1
0/10
9/1
0/10
10/1
0/10
11/1
0/10
12/1
0/10
1/1
0/11
2/1
0/11
3/1
0/11
4/1
0/11
5/1
0/11
6/1
0/11
7/1
0/11
$/me
tricton
PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa
S
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Summary
Global production climbs 2% Production reaches 662 MMT; third largest on record
Global ending stocks decrease 4% Stock-to-use ratio falls to 27%, down 2 percentage points from
2010/11 and lowest since 2008/09 (26%)
China ending stocks account for 35% of world total
World exporters Black Sea production rebounds from 2010/11
World trade increases with growing demand