ELECTORAL REFORM REFERENDUM OPINION POLL 2011 APRIL 2011 Presented by: John Hurst, Director of RMG:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RE Tel: 02920 435800 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.rmg-uk.co.uk
May 14, 2015
ELECTORAL REFORM REFERENDUM OPINION POLL 2011
APRIL 2011
Presented by: John Hurst, Director of RMG:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RE
Tel: 02920 435800
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.rmg-uk.co.uk
INTRODUCTION
This opinion poll was designed to gauge the views of those living in Wales of the forthcoming referendum on electoral reform on 5th May 2011.
METHODOLOGY
The opinion poll consisted of 960 structured telephone interviews, conducted with Welsh voters between 4th April and 5th April 2011 and 44 surveys completed online within the same timeframe. This totals 1004 surveys.
The telephone interviews were conducted at RMG:Clarity’s in-house CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) Unit. Respondents were contacted during the day and in the evening.
For the telephone survey target numbers of interviews were set according to parliamentary constituency population. After interviewing, the online data was merged with the telephone data and the survey was weighted by parliamentary constituency, socio-economic group, gender, age group, household tenure and Welsh language skills in order to provide the most representative result possible.
Full weighted and unweighted tabulations are included in this report.
The following discussion uses the weighted results.
DISCUSSION
Table 1 shows that only 31.9% of respondents thought that the government had provided them with sufficient information to make an informed decision on electoral reform. 60% thought that they had not been provided with enough information. Table 1 Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
%
Yes 31.9%
No 60.0%
Don't know 8.1%
Base: All respondents (997)
Table 2 shows whether respondents intend to vote for first-past-the-post or alternative vote in the referendum. It also shows the voting intention split by whether the respondent thinks they have enough information to make a decision. This shows that overall, nearly a third of respondents (29.8%) do not know which electoral system they prefer, whilst 45.2% will vote for first-past-the-post and 25.0% for alternative vote. In this table, those with enough information appear to be significantly more likely to vote for first-past-the-post than those without enough information (54.1% against 42.1%). However, this is because of the high number of people without enough information who do not know which they will vote for. Table 2
In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
All respondents
Those with enough information
Those without enough information
First-past-the-post 45.2% 54.1% 42.1%
Alternative vote 25.0% 31.7% 22.3%
Don't know 29.8% 14.2% 35.6%
Base: All respondents (997)/ those who have enough information to make a decision (318)/ those who do not have enough information to make a decision (598)
To counteract this, Table 3 shows the results with the ‘don’t know’ responses excluded. It is reasonable to assume that those who do not know which way they will vote will not vote in the referendum, and that this will provide a more accurate picture of voting intention.
Table 3
In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? (Excluding Don’t know)
All respondents
Those with enough information
Those without enough information
First-past-the-post 64.4% 63.1% 65.4%
Alternative vote 35.6% 36.9% 34.6% Base: All respondents (700)/ those who have enough information to make a decision (273)/ those who do not have enough information to make a decision (385)
64.4% of respondents will vote for first-past-the-post, whilst 35.6% will vote for alternative vote. Removing the ‘don’t know’ responses, it is clear that whether the respondents think they have been provided with enough information to make a decision has remarkably little impact on voting intention. 36.9% of those with enough information said they will vote for alternative vote compared to 34.6% of those without enough information. Whilst this may be indicative, the difference is not statistically significant. Taken together, this shows that a large section of the population do not know how they will vote on 5th May. However, it also shows that those who are more likely to vote in the referendum (i.e. those with an opinion one way or the other) appear to have made their decision without the need for any information from government.
WEIGHTED TABULATIONS
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
9.5%6.6%16.6%9.8%10.2%6.7%4.9%8.1%
50315242023981
61.3%58.4%55.9%54.8%60.0%64.1%59.6%60.0%
32527316131119219111598
29.2%35.0%27.5%35.3%29.8%29.2%35.5%31.9%
1541648855910066318
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
52946729240199342186997
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
26.9%9.3%5.0%7.3%10.2%8.9%5.7%9.9%6.2%9.1%10.5%
9103592361315753
49.9%56.9%67.4%60.4%59.3%57.1%60.8%61.6%58.4%68.2%79.3%
1762344851223313696643521
23.2%33.9%27.5%32.3%30.5%34.0%33.6%28.4%35.4%22.7%10.1%
837142596139754439123
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3510950803204092241551105127
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
7.8%2.7%8.0%9.4%22.9%8.1%
52112267
59.9%65.8%60.3%66.0%44.0%61.0%
3992593141254
32.3%31.5%31.6%24.5%33.1%30.9%
21612495927
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
66738155212689
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
18.1%6.6%5.3%7.0%7.4%5.1%15.7%.0%12.8%6.4%22.2%
34226221001112
67.9%58.0%60.8%60.0%75.8%70.0%61.9%100.0%48.7%79.8%50.8%
1037024522523381231128
14.0%35.4%33.9%33.0%16.8%24.9%22.4%.0%38.5%13.8%27.0%
22271329681403215
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1463940873333621271355
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 28272726232321261922997
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 2422242226252426282834
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 222526242522282025242723
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 20242724263427
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
10.0%10.5%6.3%6.8%12.0%3.9%.0%4.6%10.0%.0%8.1%
332231012081
53.7%51.0%64.7%56.6%49.8%67.0%60.0%46.1%67.8%61.4%60.0%
15141815121513121313598
36.3%38.5%29.0%36.6%38.1%29.1%40.0%49.3%22.2%38.6%31.9%
10108109791348318
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
3.6%4.8%19.7%.0%14.2%4.3%14.2%.0%6.9%4.2%8.5%
11504130213
54.5%72.4%47.0%68.2%63.5%73.8%48.9%86.4%69.3%62.9%58.9%
1316111516181223201720
41.9%22.8%33.3%31.8%22.3%21.9%36.9%13.6%23.8%32.9%32.6%
1058765947911
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
8.4%.0%3.5%4.2%3.2%4.2%12.8%4.4%7.3%12.9%17.0%7.8%
201111412352
61.1%64.5%58.7%68.5%74.2%73.5%65.7%48.0%77.9%69.5%41.1%48.7%
131615161917181019171111
30.5%35.5%37.9%27.3%22.6%22.3%21.5%47.6%14.8%17.6%41.9%43.5%
7910765610441110
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
23.7%17.8%7.1%18.8%10.8%8.4%7.1%
5425332
31.5%55.8%48.2%42.4%64.0%67.7%49.6%
6141310162313
44.8%26.4%44.7%38.8%25.2%23.9%43.3%
961296812
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
52946729240199342186997
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3510950803204092241551105127
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
66738155212689
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1463940873333621271355
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
37.0%21.6%46.5%34.9%30.4%27.9%23.3%29.8%
1961011384609644297
20.4%30.2%9.8%22.5%22.4%27.4%28.9%25.0%
108141354459454249
42.7%48.2%43.7%42.5%47.3%44.7%47.8%45.2%
226225131029415389451
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
48.8%35.6%37.0%27.7%44.7%25.3%29.6%32.0%36.1%39.5%29.6%
1739182229104665040208
19.4%26.1%36.4%24.4%9.9%21.2%21.7%29.8%29.9%31.1%61.5%
728181962874946331616
31.8%38.3%26.6%47.9%45.4%53.5%48.7%38.1%34.0%29.4%8.9%
11421338592191095937152
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
28.8%36.2%32.5%42.3%27.9%27.0%
19214509724
23.5%31.8%34.1%11.9%13.7%23.4%
15712533421
47.6%32.0%33.4%45.8%58.4%49.6%
3181252101544
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
39.0%24.9%32.3%27.5%28.0%39.0%48.3%37.9%47.6%13.4%60.4%
615913249133053233
34.5%24.5%24.4%26.1%32.9%33.3%22.8%39.4%.0%54.1%12.1%
515710231111145077
26.4%50.6%43.4%46.4%39.1%27.7%28.9%22.7%52.4%32.5%27.5%
432317411391834415
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
28272726232321261922997
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2422242226252426282834
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
222526242522282025242723
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
20242724263427
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
29.2%39.1%25.4%28.8%49.9%27.0%19.7%22.5%48.8%17.7%29.8%
810781264694297
15.0%34.1%27.4%10.9%20.4%12.5%48.1%33.2%14.6%36.1%25.0%
49735310938249
55.8%26.9%47.1%60.3%29.7%60.5%32.2%44.3%36.6%46.2%45.2%
1671316714712710451
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
16.4%45.2%23.0%32.3%37.5%33.9%18.3%35.8%43.5%10.1%48.2%
410571084912316
26.3%14.3%21.2%17.2%11.0%38.2%32.5%31.1%37.4%31.8%18.7%
635439881196
57.3%40.5%55.9%50.5%51.5%27.8%49.2%33.1%19.1%58.0%33.0%
149131113712951611
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
24.4%22.3%32.9%30.0%15.4%16.7%44.8%27.1%26.7%25.7%21.7%41.6%
5687441257669
19.1%40.4%14.6%31.8%29.7%17.8%13.0%15.1%25.7%8.5%37.6%17.1%
41048744362104
56.4%37.3%52.4%38.2%54.9%65.5%42.1%57.8%47.6%65.8%40.7%41.3%
129139141512121216119
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
31.0%46.3%17.5%27.3%30.4%36.7%14.5%
611578124
15.7%20.8%30.4%26.9%22.1%30.4%40.7%
358661011
53.3%32.9%52.1%45.8%47.5%32.9%44.8%
1181411121112
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
Base: Those who have enough
information to make a decision
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1541648855910066318
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
6139754439123
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
83714259
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21612495927
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote98765321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2227132968143215
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: Those who have enough
information to make a decision
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
19.1%9.5%12.7%21.4%20.0%11.3%4.4%14.2%
30161181211345
29.3%33.9%24.2%29.5%28.5%34.3%34.1%31.7%
4555225173423101
51.5%56.6%63.1%49.1%51.5%54.4%61.5%54.1%
8093542315441172
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
16.7%12.8%13.3%15.1%24.7%.0%.0%
1181071000
16.6%23.4%32.5%41.8%39.7%52.2%100.0%
13324181563
66.7%63.8%54.2%43.2%35.7%47.8%.0%
48941191460
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
12.5%18.0%9.7%14.0%
17136
37.7%33.9%56.5%29.8%
313877
49.8%48.1%33.8%56.2%
4185146
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
13.4%47.4%9.6%18.1%10.8%14.7%
2965114
30.0%31.5%36.1%33.2%10.2%43.3%
654182112
56.6%21.1%54.4%48.7%79.1%42.0%
1223273712
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Don't know10 - Certain to vote98765321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
.0%13.4%8.1%14.2%.0%22.4%26.0%.0%51.1%22.2%
03014024013
.0%29.1%30.1%41.8%50.6%64.9%47.3%.0%48.9%20.7%
066412357013
100.0%57.6%61.8%44.0%49.4%12.7%26.7%100.0%.0%57.2%
2130813314309
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
Base: Those who have enough
information to make a decision
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
29.5%14.5%12.8%31.4%14.3%.0%16.8%19.1%.0%14.2%
31131021045
62.0%35.9%.0%21.2%15.1%75.7%47.9%22.0%43.8%31.7%
630216614101
8.6%49.6%87.2%47.4%70.6%24.3%35.3%58.9%56.2%54.1%
148452525172
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
108109791348318
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
.0%28.1%.0%.0%10.4%25.0%47.9%.0%33.1%8.5%
0200113041
51.3%12.9%.0%66.0%22.1%52.2%12.9%19.9%32.0%9.0%
4104221241
48.7%59.0%100.0%34.0%67.5%22.8%39.3%80.1%34.9%82.4%
4462613748
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
876594791110
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
12.9%17.8%.0%17.8%29.6%27.2%.0%.0%29.8%.0%.0%
11013100300
58.5%50.9%44.3%.0%22.8%25.1%25.3%58.7%21.3%45.5%23.9%
43202117251
28.6%31.3%55.7%82.2%47.6%47.7%74.7%41.3%48.9%54.5%76.1%
22355235554
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
765610441110105
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
25.4%26.3%8.5%9.1%.0%11.7%15.9%.0%.0%32.7%
2211012003
24.1%15.6%37.4%30.5%28.0%19.4%45.7%13.3%46.9%.0%
2143225140
50.5%58.1%54.1%60.5%72.0%68.8%38.5%86.7%53.1%67.3%
5466564657
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
9612968127910
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
Base: Those who do not have
enough information to
make a decision
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
43.0%26.8%47.2%41.4%34.6%33.3%32.6%35.6%
14073854417336213
16.9%28.7%5.7%20.6%21.0%24.1%24.6%22.3%
5578127255327133
40.1%44.4%47.1%38.0%44.3%42.6%42.8%42.1%
130121850539348252
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
32527316131119219111598
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
49.6%30.4%37.5%38.2%43.1%44.6%24.0%
671513728165
8.2%21.0%16.4%24.1%22.2%28.1%64.8%
1492223141014
42.2%48.6%46.1%37.7%34.7%27.2%11.2%
5114633622102
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1223313696643521
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
48.5%40.7%46.9%33.7%
82516163
16.3%25.7%30.9%21.5%
31610104
35.2%33.6%22.2%44.8%
6217217
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
176234485
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
34.6%32.3%39.8%57.3%33.3%32.2%
1388378417
20.3%33.3%35.5%5.7%16.1%14.7%
81833128
45.1%34.4%24.8%37.0%50.6%53.2%
1809235629
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3992593141254
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
48.7%30.1%43.5%35.1%30.9%47.7%59.9%37.9%71.5%.0%67.0%
511210188112352019
33.0%22.7%19.6%18.8%28.5%24.5%12.5%39.4%.0%59.3%9.3%
3845107655063
18.3%47.2%36.9%46.0%40.6%27.7%27.6%22.7%28.5%40.7%23.7%
2175924106113147
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1037024522523381231128
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: Those who do not have
enough information to
make a decision
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
48.0%32.8%37.3%59.0%34.1%32.9%30.8%65.7%28.9%35.6%
766754484213
12.2%21.4%12.6%24.8%12.1%29.6%20.8%7.0%31.3%22.3%
242324214133
39.8%45.8%50.1%16.2%53.8%37.5%48.4%27.2%39.9%42.1%
587285635252
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
141815121513121313598
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
24.9%34.2%48.5%46.0%8.7%37.5%41.8%16.1%49.1%30.0%
35881883105
8.7%19.2%17.3%32.3%49.9%27.8%44.2%40.2%14.1%21.9%
1336669733
66.5%46.6%34.2%21.8%41.4%34.7%14.0%43.7%36.8%48.1%
7764583877
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
11151618122320172015
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
38.7%15.3%17.0%51.7%18.0%24.5%23.6%43.7%58.8%30.1%62.4%
633925457410
17.0%24.6%10.8%15.0%8.8%28.3%5.8%16.6%8.0%13.2%12.2%
35231512122
44.3%60.1%72.2%33.3%73.2%47.3%70.5%39.7%33.2%56.6%25.4%
71112679124474
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1619171810191711111316
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
16.6%46.2%21.4%29.2%41.3%42.1%7.8%40.0%34.6%35.1%
16337101565
.0%29.9%20.7%27.2%18.2%33.5%42.2%24.7%36.8%19.0%
0433386363
83.4%23.9%57.9%43.6%40.4%24.4%50.0%35.3%28.5%45.9%
5384767557
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
6141310162313131615
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
UNWEIGHTED TABULATIONS
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
9.2%6.8%16.7%9.3%11.0%6.8%4.6%8.1%
49325202324981
61.7%57.4%56.7%54.2%59.3%63.7%59.2%59.7%
33026917117124225116599
29.2%35.8%26.7%36.6%29.7%29.5%36.2%32.3%
1561688796210471324
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
535469302162093531961004
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
25.0%9.3%6.1%7.4%10.0%8.9%5.8%9.7%5.9%9.7%10.0%
892622401415631
50.0%56.7%66.7%60.1%60.0%57.5%60.6%62.3%58.4%67.7%80.0%
165522506122571469659218
25.0%34.0%27.3%32.5%30.0%33.6%33.6%27.9%35.6%22.6%10.0%
8339274615081433671
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
329733842204472411541013110
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
8.0%2.5%6.8%10.0%22.2%8.1%
54110268
59.9%65.0%59.2%60.0%44.4%60.6%
4022687121260
32.0%32.5%34.0%30.0%33.3%31.3%
21513506931
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
67140147202799
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
20.0%6.7%5.0%6.9%6.1%6.1%16.1%.0%14.3%10.0%20.0%
34426221001110
66.7%57.8%60.0%59.8%75.8%72.7%61.3%100.0%42.9%70.0%54.0%
10380245225243893727
13.3%35.6%35.0%33.3%18.2%21.2%22.6%.0%42.9%20.0%26.0%
22341429671403213
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156584087333362971050
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 282727282223182520221004
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 2620242226242426282735
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 232427252623272227242823
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 21242925273126
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
3.6%11.1%7.4%7.1%13.6%4.3%.0%4.0%10.0%.0%8.1%
132231012081
57.1%51.9%63.0%57.1%50.0%65.2%61.1%48.0%65.0%63.6%59.7%
16141716111511121314599
39.3%37.0%29.6%35.7%36.4%30.4%38.9%48.0%25.0%36.4%32.3%
11108108771258324
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
3.8%5.0%16.7%.0%15.4%4.2%12.5%.0%7.1%3.7%8.6%
11404130213
53.8%70.0%50.0%68.2%61.5%70.8%50.0%84.6%67.9%63.0%57.1%
1414121516171222191720
42.3%25.0%33.3%31.8%23.1%25.0%37.5%15.4%25.0%33.3%34.3%
1158766947912
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
8.7%.0%3.7%4.0%3.8%4.3%14.8%4.5%7.4%12.5%17.9%8.7%
201111412352
60.9%62.5%59.3%68.0%73.1%73.9%66.7%50.0%77.8%70.8%42.9%47.8%
141516171917181121171211
30.4%37.5%37.0%28.0%23.1%21.7%18.5%45.5%14.8%16.7%39.3%43.5%
7910765510441110
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
23.8%16.7%6.9%16.0%11.1%9.7%7.7%
5424332
33.3%54.2%48.3%44.0%63.0%64.5%46.2%
7131411172012
42.9%29.2%44.8%40.0%25.9%25.8%46.2%
9713107812
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
535469302162093531961004
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
329733842204472411541013110
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
67140147202799
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156584087333362971050
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
36.6%20.7%46.7%33.3%29.7%28.6%22.4%29.2%
1969714726210144293
19.8%28.8%10.0%21.8%22.0%25.5%28.1%24.0%
106135347469055241
43.6%50.5%43.3%44.9%48.3%45.9%49.5%46.8%
233237139710116297470
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
50.0%35.1%39.4%27.3%45.0%25.3%29.5%31.8%35.6%38.7%30.0%
1634132309113714936123
15.6%25.8%30.3%23.9%10.0%21.3%21.6%29.9%29.7%32.3%60.0%
52510201295524630106
34.4%39.2%30.3%48.8%45.0%53.5%49.0%38.3%34.7%29.0%10.0%
1138104119239118593591
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
28.8%35.0%32.0%30.0%25.9%26.3%
19314476726
22.4%30.0%33.3%15.0%14.8%23.2%
15012493423
48.9%35.0%34.7%55.0%59.3%50.5%
3281451111650
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
40.0%24.6%30.0%26.4%27.3%39.4%48.4%33.3%42.9%20.0%60.0%
616212239133033230
33.3%23.9%25.0%25.3%30.3%30.3%21.0%33.3%.0%40.0%14.0%
515710221010133047
26.7%51.5%45.0%48.3%42.4%30.3%30.6%33.3%57.1%40.0%26.0%
4339184214101934413
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
282727282223182520221004
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2620242226242426282735
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
232427252623272227242823
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21242925273126
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
25.0%37.0%25.9%28.6%50.0%26.1%22.2%24.0%45.0%18.2%29.2%
710781164694293
14.3%33.3%25.9%10.7%22.7%13.0%38.9%32.0%15.0%31.8%24.0%
4973537837241
60.7%29.6%48.1%60.7%27.3%60.9%38.9%44.0%40.0%50.0%46.8%
1781317614711811470
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
15.4%40.0%20.8%31.8%34.6%33.3%16.7%38.5%42.9%11.1%48.6%
48579841012317
26.9%15.0%20.8%18.2%11.5%41.7%33.3%26.9%35.7%29.6%20.0%
7354310871087
57.7%45.0%58.3%50.0%53.8%25.0%50.0%34.6%21.4%59.3%31.4%
159141114612961611
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
26.1%25.0%33.3%28.0%15.4%17.4%44.4%27.3%25.9%25.0%21.4%39.1%
6697441267669
17.4%33.3%14.8%32.0%30.8%17.4%14.8%13.6%25.9%8.3%35.7%17.4%
4848844372104
56.5%41.7%51.9%40.0%53.8%65.2%40.7%59.1%48.1%66.7%42.9%43.5%
131014101415111313161210
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
28.6%45.8%17.2%24.0%29.6%38.7%15.4%
611568124
14.3%20.8%31.0%28.0%22.2%25.8%34.6%
3597689
57.1%33.3%51.7%48.0%48.1%35.5%50.0%
1281512131113
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
Base: Those who have enough
information to make a decision
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1561688796210471324
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
615081433671
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
8339274
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21513506931
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote98765321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2234142967143213
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: Those who have enough
information to make a decision
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
19.2%9.5%12.5%21.5%21.0%11.5%4.2%14.2%
30161171312346
27.6%33.3%25.0%29.1%29.0%31.7%32.4%30.6%
435622318332399
53.2%57.1%62.5%49.4%50.0%56.7%63.4%55.2%
8396539315945179
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
16.7%12.7%13.6%14.0%25.0%.0%.0%
119116900
16.7%23.3%32.1%41.9%38.9%57.1%100.0%
13526181441
66.7%64.0%54.3%44.2%36.1%42.9%.0%
49644191330
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
12.5%18.2%11.1%13.9%
16138
37.5%33.3%55.6%29.2%
311580
50.0%48.5%33.3%56.9%
4163156
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
13.5%46.2%10.0%16.7%11.1%12.9%
2965114
28.8%30.8%34.0%33.3%11.1%41.9%
624172113
57.7%23.1%56.0%50.0%77.8%45.2%
1243283714
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Don't know10 - Certain to vote98765321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
.0%13.2%7.1%13.8%.0%28.6%28.6%.0%50.0%23.1%
03114024013
.0%28.6%28.6%37.9%50.0%57.1%42.9%.0%50.0%23.1%
067411346013
100.0%58.1%64.3%48.3%50.0%14.3%28.6%100.0%.0%53.8%
2136914314307
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
Base: Those who have enough
information to make a decision
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
30.0%12.5%10.0%37.5%14.3%.0%16.7%20.0%.0%14.2%
31131021046
60.0%37.5%.0%25.0%14.3%71.4%50.0%20.0%37.5%30.6%
63021561399
10.0%50.0%90.0%37.5%71.4%28.6%33.3%60.0%62.5%55.2%
149352435179
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
108108771258324
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
.0%28.6%.0%.0%11.1%25.0%42.9%.0%33.3%9.1%
0200113041
50.0%14.3%.0%66.7%22.2%50.0%14.3%22.2%33.3%9.1%
4104221241
50.0%57.1%100.0%33.3%66.7%25.0%42.9%77.8%33.3%81.8%
4462613749
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
876694791211
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
14.3%16.7%.0%20.0%30.0%25.0%.0%.0%30.0%.0%.0%
11013100300
57.1%50.0%40.0%.0%20.0%25.0%25.0%54.5%20.0%45.5%20.0%
43202116251
28.6%33.3%60.0%80.0%50.0%50.0%75.0%45.5%50.0%54.5%80.0%
22345235564
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
765510441110115
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
22.2%28.6%7.7%10.0%.0%12.5%16.7%.0%.0%30.0%
2211012003
22.2%14.3%38.5%30.0%28.6%12.5%41.7%14.3%44.4%.0%
2153215140
55.6%57.1%53.8%60.0%71.4%75.0%41.7%85.7%55.6%70.0%
5476565657
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
97131078127910
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
Base: Those who do not have
enough information to
make a decision
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
43.0%25.7%47.1%40.2%33.1%34.7%31.9%35.2%
14269847417837211
16.7%26.4%5.9%18.8%20.2%22.2%24.1%21.0%
5571122255028126
40.3%48.0%47.1%41.0%46.8%43.1%44.0%43.7%
133129848589751262
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
33026917117124225116599
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
50.0%30.4%37.0%38.5%42.4%42.9%25.0%
67854372592
8.3%21.0%16.4%24.0%22.0%28.6%62.5%
15424231365
41.7%48.6%46.6%37.5%35.6%28.6%12.5%
512568362161
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
122571469659218
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
56.3%40.0%50.0%33.4%
92211169
6.3%25.5%22.7%20.9%
1145106
37.5%34.5%27.3%45.7%
6196231
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
165522506
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
34.6%30.8%41.4%41.7%33.3%31.7%
1398365419
18.9%30.8%34.5%8.3%16.7%15.0%
76830129
46.5%38.5%24.1%50.0%50.0%53.3%
18710216632
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
4022687121260
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
50.0%29.7%41.7%34.6%32.0%45.8%60.5%33.3%66.7%.0%66.7%
511310188112332018
30.0%21.8%20.8%19.2%24.0%25.0%10.5%33.3%.0%42.9%11.1%
3835106643033
20.0%48.4%37.5%46.2%44.0%29.2%28.9%33.3%33.3%57.1%22.2%
2184924117113146
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
10380245225243893727
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: Those who do not have
enough information to
make a decision
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
42.9%35.3%37.5%54.5%33.3%36.4%33.3%61.5%28.6%35.2%
666654484211
14.3%17.6%12.5%27.3%13.3%18.2%16.7%7.7%28.6%21.0%
232322214126
42.9%47.1%50.0%18.2%53.3%45.5%50.0%30.8%42.9%43.7%
688285646262
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
141716111511121314599
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
25.0%33.3%43.8%47.1%8.3%40.9%42.1%17.6%50.0%31.3%
35781983105
8.3%20.0%18.8%35.3%50.0%22.7%42.1%35.3%15.0%18.8%
1336658633
66.7%46.7%37.5%17.6%41.7%36.4%15.8%47.1%35.0%50.0%
8763583878
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
12151617122219172016
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
35.3%15.8%17.6%50.0%18.2%23.8%23.5%41.7%54.5%28.6%57.1%
63392545648
17.6%26.3%11.8%16.7%9.1%28.6%5.9%16.7%9.1%14.3%14.3%
35231612122
47.1%57.9%70.6%33.3%72.7%47.6%70.6%41.7%36.4%57.1%28.6%
811126810125484
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1719171811211712111414
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: Those who do not have enough information to make a decision
First-past-the-post
Alternative vote
Don't know
14.3%46.2%21.4%27.3%41.2%45.0%8.3%42.9%40.0%37.5%
1633791666
.0%30.8%21.4%27.3%17.6%30.0%33.3%21.4%26.7%18.8%
0433364343
85.7%23.1%57.1%45.5%41.2%25.0%58.3%35.7%33.3%43.8%
6385757557
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
7131411172012141516
Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?
2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RMG BACKGROUND
RMG has been in business since 1968 and consists of 35 full time staff and over 60 casual staff. RMG is wholly owned by its Directors following a management buy-out in October 2009.
QUALITY
We pride ourselves on the quality of work that we deliver. To maintain the highest standards we are Market Research Society (MRS) Company Partners and members of the British Polling Council upholding their codes of practice. We are an Investors in People company and believe that our competitive advantage is founded upon the superior expertise of our staff.
Emphasising our commitment to quality, all our market research projects are delivered to the ISO20252 and Interviewer Quality Control Scheme (IQCS) standards.
OUR VISION AND MISSION STATEMENT
‘Our vision is to be a vibrant and profitable brand by securing the place of ‘first choice’ through the consistent delivery of exceptional services by extraordinary people who take pride in their work.’
OUR VALUES
Integral: We are part of our customers business
Commercial: Brain power comes before manpower
Quality: We take pride in everything we do
Friendly: We always make our clients happy
Secure: Our clients’ reputation is our reputation
Sustainable: We think about the future of our planet, as well as the future of our business.