2010 Vision Conference - Techstreet · 2010 Vision Conference Highlights of this year’s Vision Conference at a glance: • Long-term forecast of the Federal IT (5-year) and U.S.

2010 Vision ConferenceOctober 20-21, 2010

The Waterford Conference CenterSpringfield, Virginia

2010 Vision Conference

Highlights of this year’s Vision Conference at a glance:

• Long-term forecast of the Federal IT (5-year) and U.S. Defense (10-year) markets• Qualitative and quantitative analysis from 200+ industry member volunteers who participate in the forecasting process• Additional insights provided by hundreds of government executives who take part in non-attribution roundtable

discussions

Please plan on attending this year’s Vision Conference to obtain the findings of this valuable forecasting process and to network with your industry peers.

The 46th annual TechAmerica Foundation

Vision Conference promises to deliver a

rich, comprehensive and widely referenced

analysis of federal spending and business

opportunities for the future.

“ Insights, intelligence, and actionable data for future business opportunities are the driving forces that bring Business Developers and Strategists to the Vision Conference. Year after year, this conference never fails to deliver on accurate predictions and forecasts that give attendees the edge on qualifying, pursuing and winning business!”-Ann Gladys, Director, CSC, North American Public Sector

For more information or to register visit www.techamericafoundation.org

About TechAmerica and the TechAmerica FoundationThe TechAmerica Foundation is a 501c(3) non-profit, non-partisan affiliate of TechAmerica. The Foundation was originally established in

1981 under the auspices of AeA and subsequently renamed after the merger that created TechAmerica. The charter of the TechAmerica

Foundation is to create and disseminate industry, policy and market research studies, covering topics such as U.S. competitiveness in a

global economy, innovation in government and other areas of national interest. The Foundation also organizes conferences and seminars

to explore pertinent issues with government and industry representatives and to share the Foundation’s findings. The Vision Conference is

the major undertaking to achieve this goal.

TechAmerica is the leading voice for the U.S. Technology industry, which is the driving force behind productivity growth and jobs creation

in the United States and the foundation of the global innovation economy. Representing approximately 1,500 member companies of all

sizes from the public and commercial sectors of the economy, it is the industry’s largest advocacy organization and is dedicated to helping

members’ top and bottom lines. TechAmerica was formed by the mergers of the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA),

AeA, the Government Electronics & Information Technology Association (GEIA) and the Cyber Security Industry Alliance (CSIA).

Membership in TechAmerica offers access to:

• High Quality Information on trends and opportunities for doing business with the Federal Government, including a host of key

government relations programs.

• Active Leadership that is recognized nationally and internationally for its expertise in navigating the Federal Marketplace.

• An Open Channel for government to communicate messages to industry and exchange ideas.

2010 Industry Study Teams (DoD)

The following teams are developing the 2010 Vision Forecast:

Defense:• Macroeconomic/DoD Top-Line Budget• Cyber Security Special Study• C4ISR/DoD IT• Services & Support• Science & Technology • Aircraft• Missile Defense/Precision Munitions• Ships• Vehicles• NASA• Space• Industry Outlook

“ The Vision Conference process provides a comprehensive analysis of government budget forecasts and a comprehensive understanding of the U.S. government’s plans. Individual and team participation is especially important for Industry members to experience firsthand how and why Government allocates their resources. This process and the knowledge gained aids companies in their long term planning as the Administration’s policies unfold in 2010 and beyond.”– Gerry Robbins, Executive Director, Business Development, Defense Systems Division, Northrop Grumman Corporation

2010 Industry Study Teams (Federal IT)

The following teams are developing the 2010 Vision Forecast:

Federal IT:• Federal IT Budget/DoD IT Budget• Game Changers (drivers in the Federal IT

market)• Cross-Cutting Contracts (MACs, GWACs,

Schedules, BPAs)• General Services Administration• Department of Homeland Security• Department of Health and Human Services• Department of Veterans Affairs• Military Health System• Department of the Treasury • Department of Justice• Department of Transportation

• Department of Energy• Department of State• Department of Commerce• Department of Agriculture

“The Vision process includes training in interviewing, analysis, and presentation skills, as well as substantial feedback and brainstorming sessions with industry colleagues. It’s a great way to enhance your own company’s professional development, and to network at the same time.”– Bobbi Terkowitz, Client Manager, IBM

DoD Forecast

The TechAmerica Foundation Vision Conference will showcase the most comprehensive analysis of the future direction of Defense and Federal IT budgets available. The DoD Topline forecast chart at right is backed up by HUNDREDS of relevant forecasting charts contained within various presentations. You will note that the 2009 forecast chart predicted that the Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) will result in Supplementals to fund those operations throughout the 2010-2020 forecast period. By 2020 we expect to be at a Topline level somewhere between the level we were at in 2002 and 2003. (Note forecast on this chart is in constant dollars, i.e. inflation is removed; the dotted blue line indicates the current dollar forecast, i.e. includes inflation)

2009 DoD Topline Forecastin Constant FY10 Dollars

$700

800 Topline = Base Budget + OCO funding$664

FY10

$609

500

600

B

$470MILCON & Other

OCOOCO

26.1

130.0

300

400

500

FY10

$B

O&M185.7

197.5

21.3 11.5

100

200

300

RDT&E

MILPERS136.0

78.6129.5

0

100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Procurement107.4 66.243.8

TechAmerica Vision Conference TechAmerica Vision Conference

Note: Excludes FY09 Stimulus funding ($7.4 billion)

Decline in OCO funding & deficit pressures will drive topline downDecline in OCO funding & deficit pressures will drive topline down

DoD Forecast

The chart to the right delineates events that could potentially change the DoD forecast in an upward or downward direction. The perceived threat environment is the most likely driver of future DoD toplines.

“Participation in the TechAmerica Foundation forecast development process enhances my interactions with Government officials, think tanks, Wall Street analysts, and other industry professionals -- all of which enables me to provide added value to my company’s strategic planning and business development processes.”– Cecil Black, Director of Market Assessment & Budget Analysis, Boeing Government Operations

Potential Changes to 2009 DoD Forecast

Adverse changes in political strategic landscape

B fi i l h i liti lNew 9/11 or devastating cyber attackIraq withdrawal delayedProlonged surge in Afghanistan

Deficit situation improves –

Beneficial changes in political strategic landscape

Threats diminishIraq withdrawal goes smoothly

Economy rebounds better than anticipatedEntitlement reform cuts mandatory costs

Afghanistan ends sooner thanexpectedMilitary end strength reductions

“Double dip” recessionGuns trump butter as policy priority

Administration & Congress determine that DoD modernization is a national priority

Produces larger deficits that drive further spending cuts

Butter trumps guns as policy priorityHealth care for uninsured & other p y

Reset after Iraq/Afghanistan is more costly than anticipated Further ground forces increase

domestic programs growLong-term: “Big 3” mandatory programs grow unchecked


Perceived threat environment is most likely driver of future DoD toplinesPerceived threat environment is most likely driver of future DoD toplines

Federal IT Forecast

Our forecasts are recognized as the industry standard for predicting federal budget trends. There are 25+ study teams from which to choose. We provide in-depth agency forecasts. All agency presentations contain a chart detailing future budget trends (Note forecast on this chart is in current dollars, i.e. includes inflation)

2009 Federal IT Forecast2009 Federal IT Forecast

$100 DOC$90 7B

TOTAL CAGR FY10-FY15 = 3.1%

$70$80$90 USDA

VANASA$61.4B

$77.8B$90.7B

$B

$50$60$70 DOT

DOETreas

Cur

rent

$$20$30$40 DOJ

HHSDHS

C

$0$10

5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5

Other CivDefAgNavy


FY05FY06

FY07FY08

FY09FY10

FY11FY12

FY13FY14

FY15 ArmyAF

Federal IT Forecast

After examining the inhibitors and drivers, we concluded that despite the downward pressures, IT needs across government will result in conservative IT budget growth in 2010-2015. Growth is driven primarily by increasing demand for better and more efficient government services and the need for long-term IT investments in order to contain the costs of delivering those services.

Federal IT Budget 2009 Forecast AssumptionsFY2010 2015

IT Budget Inhibitors

Improve fiscal

FY2010-2015 CAGR = 3.1%

Realize long-term discipline

Achieve economies in government

Increasing demand for more efficient government services

ROI from investments

IT Budget Driversgovernment contracting; reform acquisition practices

Improve services to citizens

Increase scope & Need for long-term IT investments in order to

IT Budget Drivers

scale of government services

Address pent-up demand in “wants”

contain the per capita costs of delivering those services

Meet up- de a d a tsand “needs” front costs of

investmentsMake operation-

critical investments


critical investments

Despite downward pressure, we foresee IT needs driving slower growthDespite downward pressure, we foresee IT needs driving slower growth

Member Companies that participated on our 2009 Vision Study

Accenture

ACS

American Systems

AT&T

BAE Systems, Inc.

The Boeing Company

Booz Allen Hamilton

Buzzient, Inc.

CA, Inc.

CACI

Capgemini Government Solutions, LLC

Creative Computing Solutions, Inc.

CGI Federal

Citrix Government Systems

Compusearch Software Systems

Convergys Government Solutions, Inc.

Crane Aerospace & Electronics

CSC

Curtiss-Wright Corporation

Dell Perot Systems

Deloitte

Digital Management, Inc.

Dynamic Research Corporation

DRS Technologies

EMC Corporation

Federal Insights

Fortress Technologies, Inc.

General Dynamics Corporation

Govplace

GTSI

Harris Corporation

Hewlett Packard

Honeywell International

HP Enterprise Services

IBM

ICF International

iFour LLC

Information International Associates (IIa)

INTEGRITYOne Partners

K-Force Government Solutions (KGS)

Kollmorgen Electro-Optical

L-3 Communications

Lockheed Martin Corporation

McKenna Long & Aldridge, LLP

Meggitt USA

Meridian Government Services

Metters Industries, Inc.

NetStar-1

Nortel Government Solutions

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Oracle

OST, Inc.

Panasonic Corp. of North America

Pragmatics

PricewaterhouseCoopers

PRTM Management Consultants, LLC

Qbase

QinetiQ North America

Qwest Government Services

Rainmakers Government Solutions, LLC

Raytheon Company

Rockwell Collins

SAIC

SAS Institute, Inc.

Segovia, Inc.

Serco

SiloSmashers

Sprint

SRA International

SRC

Suss Consulting

Sypris Electronics, LLC

TerreStar Networks

The Veschi Group

TIBCO

Unisys Corporation

USIS

Vangent, Inc.

VeriSign

Verizon Business

Vistronix, Inc.

Contacts

Jim Serafin, Vice President, Market Forecasting703.284.5359, [email protected]

Joan Piccariello, Senior Director, Market Forecasting703.284.5314, [email protected]

Sponsors: Please contact Jim Serafin, 703.284.5359, [email protected] about sponsorship opportunities

For more information or to register for the Vision Conference, visit www.techamericafoundation.org

2010 Vision Conference - Techstreet · 2010 Vision Conference Highlights of this year’s Vision Conference at a glance: • Long-term forecast of the Federal IT (5-year) and U.S.

Documents