2010 Getting Beyond Turbulent Times SMITH-TRG By: Richard D. Smith, CEO, SMITH-TRG Executive Briefing, Washington, D. C. January 5, 2010 ‘The Need for U. S. Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines’
Nov 28, 2014
2010Getting Beyond Turbulent Times
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By: Richard D. Smith, CEO, SMITH-TRGExecutive Briefing, Washington, D. C.January 5, 2010
‘The Need for U. S. Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines’
2010 Challenges You Face
Some ‘Turbulent Times’ Facts
Enterprise Path to Prosperity
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WHY: Act Now?
Contents . . .
some ‘Turbulent Times’ facts(a.k.a. inconvenient realities . . .)
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57% of GDP is Publicly Held Federal Debt Source: Congressional Budget Office
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Peter Orszag, Director, Office of Management & Budget (OMB)
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U. S. Debt is $12.1 TrillionNearly $39,000 for Every U.S. Resident
Deficit Growth: $162 Billion in 2007, $455 Billion 2008, and $1.8 Billion by YE 2009 (was $1.4 Billion in Oct.)
a.k.a. the
DEBT BOMB!
legacy. . .
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WITHIN A DECADE…
Average American Household
(that pays income taxes)
Will Owe the equivalent of
$155,000In Federal Debt
(about $90,000 more than last year)
Source: FORTUNE June 22, 2009
As of October 2009, the average American’s annual income was up only 5.3% in inflation-adjusted terms from the end of the 1980s. That's the slowest growth
registered in at least six decades.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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$39,446 is Average American’s Income
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U.S. Population grew by 35 million from 1999 to 2009, while the economy gained virtually no jobs. Employed people: 1999 – 130,532,000 vs. 2009 – 130,996,000
26.5 Million or 17.3%of Americans are Jobless or Underemployed
The government's broadest measure of labor underutilization (known as the U6) has more
than doubled in the two years since the recession began to 17.5%, and it is up from
12% just a year ago. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The number of people involuntarily working part-time jobs has more
than doubled to 9.3 million the highest number on record.
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1 in 5 People. . .are Either Unemployed, Involuntarily Working Part-Time
or “Marginally Attached“
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Career Day10% U.S. UnemploymentOn Track to Hit 11+% in Q1, 2010
The transportation and material-moving sectors saw unemployment
rise to 11.6% from 7.9% over the same period.
19.1 % up from 10.7% Construction Industry’s Unemployment Rate
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Projected 9.4 Million Private-Sector Jobs Deficit by Year End 2009
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Currently, 25 states have run out of unemployment money and have borrowed $24 billion from the federal government to cover the gaps.
The nation's jobless toll is draining unemployment-compensation funds so fast that, according to federal projections, 40 state programs will go broke by 2011 and need $90 billion in loans to keep issuing benefits.
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Job losses are causing income losses, which in turn are constraining private demand, reducing tax revenues
and causing higher deficits.
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THE BIGGESTLOSERS: States
2010 Challenges You Face
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We’re AlmostRunning On Empty!
Data Source: Office of Management & Budget
I. Even with a strong recovery, annual deficits will average about 5% of GDP over the next decade, and total debt will climb to nearly 77% of GDP, its highest level since 1952.
II. Persistent deficits of this size will put upward pressure on long-term interest rates, crowding out investment and stunting long-term growth. Interest payments on the debt will be onerous - by 2019 they will exceed defense spending.
III. Investor anxiety about the huge borrowing needs of the U.S. government could trigger a sharp decline in the dollar and another crisis in global financial markets.
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New Year Assessment
3 Key Challenges
Jobless Growth
Paying Nations’ Bills
Jobs Creation
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2010, Must Be About Jobs . . .
WHY?
Every 1 Million New Jobs Puts $50 Billion into
Nations Economic Gas Tank!
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Each month delay in creating and
filling 1 million U.S. jobs defers $50 Billion in annual national economic benefit/value.
Employing 8 million of 16million unemployed wouldadd $400 Billion to nationaleconomy.
$100 Billion Value
Fill 2Million
Jobs
Fill 5Million
Jobs
Fill 10 Million
Jobs
$250 Billion Value
$500 Billion Value
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Economic Impact of Deferred Jobs Creation
“Even if the nation could add 2.15 million private-sector jobs per year starting in January 2010, it would need to maintain this pace for more than 7 straight years (7.63 years), or until August 2017, to eliminate the jobs deficit!”
- Advance & Rutgers Report, Sept. 09
By James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca
Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning
& Public Policy
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Your Biggest Challenge
Remember. . .
7 years (2010 to 2017) just to recover 9.4 million
lost jobs (a.k.a. jobs deficit.)
+Nation still needs to create 100,000 additional net newjobs per month (1.2 Mil. Yr.,
2010 to 2017) to support workforce growth.
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200,000 new jobs monthly: to reduce ‘jobs deficit’
100,000 new jobs monthly: for ‘workforce’ growth
YE 2010 Total: 3,600,000 ‘Net New’ Jobs
$180 Billion – National Value
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Need Jobs Beginning January 1st, 2010(‘Net New’ Job Needs Per Month/Every Month)
Enterprise Path to Prosperity(FUTURE-WORLD opportunities. . .)
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Position for FUTURE-WORLD Commerce
Build 21ST Century Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines
C R E A T E ‘S U S T A I N A B L E’ U. S. J O B S!
“Now is the time for America to doa business growth paradigm shift.A transformative rethink of how it designs, finances, builds and grows
market competitive U.S. based businesses.”
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B E T R A N S F O R M A T I V E
“A new world order is dawning – one
in which the West is no longer dominant,
capitalism (at least the American version)
is out of favor, and protectionism
is on the rise.”- Roger Altman
Former Deputy Treasury Sec., Clinton Administration
GLOBALIZATION
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A C C E P T G L O B A L I Z A T I O N
BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION
PRODUCT/SERVICE INNOVATION
PROCESS INNOVATION
TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION
“Innovation has become the new currency of global
competition as one country after another races toward a new high
ground where the capacity for innovation is viewed as a
hallmark of national success.”- John Kao, quotes
Author, INNOVATION NATION, 2007
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E M B R A C E I N N O V A T I O N
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A R T I C U L A T E V I S I O N (photos of visionary CEO’s from across industry sectors)
Customer Centricity. Performance Improvement. Innovation. Value Creation.
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F O C U S O N ‘FUTURE-WORLD’ N E E D S
“I think fanaticism is underrated.
I’m a fanatic about the engineering
groups. Steve (Jobs) is a fanatic
about the user experience and
the design.”- Bill Gates, Microsoft
Advice for entrepreneurs, enterprise game changers
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U N D E R S T A N D F A N A T I C I S M
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B E E N T R EP R E N E U R I A L(photos of entrepreneurs who drive change and create value in diverse market sectors)
A S S E S S E ME R G I N G M A R K E T S
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Emerging Market Opportunities
(in no particular order) 8
SMITH-TRG1) Modular Kitchens:
Think college dorm rooms, worker housing, disaster recovery
lodging, NYC apartments, etc…
Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order) 8
SMITH-TRG2 & 3) Flexible Screen
Technologies & Roll-up Laptop (closed/open)Digital-Media applications of technology, lines-of-business
segments unlimited…
Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order) 8
SMITH-TRG4 & 5) Cyber Security & Intranets.
Gartner Research estimates that about 15 percent of all small businesses suffered a hack attack in 2008.
The financial and economic impact of a one day cyber sabotage effort that disrupts US credit and debit card transactions is estimated at being about $35 billion USD.
NATO Chief of Cyber Defense:“Cyber terrorism poses as great a threat to national security as a missile attack. In 2008, the Department of Defense suffered an estimated 80,000 network attacks. On government networks alone, a new software vulnerability is exploited every 82 minutes.”
Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order) 8
SMITH-TRG6) Cyber Secure Digital-Media Cities,Eco Future-World New & Upgraded Multi-Purpose Population Centers
Capital intensive ($5 to $45 Bil.) strategic long-term investments – energy efficient digital-enabled life.
Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order) 8
SMITH-TRG7) Health Care Solutions
Technology enabled health care treatment solutions forecasted by some to be $2 Trillion U.S. market.
Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order) 8
SMITH-TRG8) Wireless Application SolutionsThink beyond Apple’s iPhone, Google smartphones, Nokia, Samsung and others. Think about Tablets, in-car systems, multi-touch flex-screens – all part of digital media future-world.
“The greatest value creation opportunity will fall to those who give the end-user consumer what they want…really, really want. And that is: an integrated, easy to use, video media experience, anytime, anywhere, and on any platform.”
- Richard D. Smith, SMITH-TRGAuthor, AD-MIRED, 2006, book quote
WHY MOBILE APPLICATIONS?Market Forecast: From $7 Billion 2008 to $25 Billion 2014
Sources: Juniper Research & IDC
– 2008 - 1.19 Billion Mobile Phones
Sold World-wide. 155 Million (13%) were Smartphones
– By 2013 20% or 280 Million (SP’s)
– Apple: 100,000 APP’s vs. RIM’s: 2,000 APP’s
– Others: Google, Sprint’s Palm, Motorola – 2 new devices, then Nokia, Samsung, and host of new entrants. . .
“What you carry on your belt
is now your MP3 player, will
be your plasma TV, is your
social networking machine,
is your Internet terminal,
your camera, your personal
navigation device.”
- Jim Basillie
Co-CEO, Research-in-Motion
Mobile APPs continued . . .
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show methe money!
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New Enterprise Associates (Large VC)
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Just Closed 13th FundRaised nearly
$2.5 Billion
Core Investment AreasInformation Technology
Energy TechnologyHealth Care Art by: John Kuczala
– Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up. It knows that it must run faster than the fastest lion, or IT WILL BE KILLED.
– Every morning in Africa, a lion wakes up. It knows that it must outrun the slowest gazelle, or IT WILL STARVE TO DEATH.
– In Africa, it doesn’t matter whether you’re a lion or a gazelle. When the SUN COMES UP, YOU’D BETTER BE RUNNING!
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K E E P: E Y E O N T H E P R I Z E
WHY: Act Now?
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“The Ultimate Measure Of A Healthy & Recovering Economy. . .Jobs Growth!”
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If Not Now, When?
If Not You, Who?
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Thank You!