2010 Census: What is the BIG story?

2010 Census: What is the

BIG story?

Alvaro LimaDirector of ResearchBoston Redevelopment Authority

During the last decade Boston’s population

grew

In the last decade, Boston’s population grew by 4.8%…

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

801,444

697,197

641,071

562,994 574,283

589,141

617,594

4.8%

Boston’s Population (1950 – 2010)

Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis

…and it has also grown more than most other cities in the Northeast


1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

…it has grown faster than it did in the last two decades reversing the negative trend of the three decades prior to 1980…

4.8%2.6%2.0%

+9.7% since 1980-29.7% between 1950 and 1980


Boston’s Population (1950 – 2010)

-13%

-8%

-12%

It didn't just

grow,

it grew

younger

35% of our population is between the ages of 20 and 34…

22%

35%24%

19%

Boston's Population by Age - 2010

0-19 years20-34 years35-54 years55 and older


We have the highest concentration of young adults (20-34) among the 25 largest cities in the country

City 20 to 34-Year-Olds % of Total Population

Location Quotient

Boston 216,213 35.0% 1.73Austin 251,064 31.8% 1.57Washington DC 188,855 31.4% 1.55Atlanta 127,101 30.3% 1.49Seattle 181,501 29.8% 1.47San Francisco 228,738 28.4% 1.40Chicago 738,578 27.4% 1.35Dallas 314,728 26.3% 1.29Houston 545,071 26.0% 1.28Baltimore 160,024 25.8% 1.27Philadelphia 392,776 25.7% 1.27Los Angeles 953,443 25.1% 1.24New York 2,035,030 24.9% 1.23San Antonio 304,784 23.0% 1.13Phoenix 330,885 22.9% 1.13


… not just

younger

but

smarter

44.3% of Boston’s population has at least a bachelor’s degree…

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

21.1% 24.0%

19.4%20.2%

15.3%14.2%

23.8%

17.7%

24.5%

19.8%

2000 2010 % of 2000 Population % of 2010 Population

Source: 2000 Census Summary File 3, 2010 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis

Educational Attainment (2000 – 2010)

11

…ranking 4th among the 25 largest cities in the country

Source: 2010 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis

Rank City Bachelor's degree

Graduate or professional degree

Bachelor's or higher

1 Seattle, Washington 33.1% 22.9% 56.0%2 San Francisco, California 31.4% 19.5% 50.9%3 Washington, District of Columbia 23.2% 26.9% 50.1%4 Boston, Massachusetts 24.5% 19.8% 44.3%5 Austin, Texas 27.5% 16.1% 43.6%6 Portland, Oregon 26.3% 15.9% 42.2%7 Denver, Colorado 25.4% 15.5% 40.9%8 San Diego, California 24.1% 16.3% 40.4%9 Charlotte, North Carolina 25.9% 12.8% 38.7%

10 San Jose, California 23.2% 13.4% 36.6%11 Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee 20.0% 13.6% 33.6%12 Chicago, Illinois 20.2% 13.2% 33.4%13 New York, New York 19.9% 13.4% 33.3%14 Columbus, Ohio 21.3% 10.4% 31.7%15 Los Angeles, California 20.4% 10.3% 30.7%16 Dallas, Texas 18.5% 10.4% 28.9%17 Houston, Texas 17.4% 11.0% 28.4%18 Louisville-Jefferson, Kentucky 16.4% 11.0% 27.4%19 Indianapolis, Indiana 17.6% 9.0% 26.6%20 Fort Worth, Texas 18.5% 7.5% 26.0%

and the city became more

diverse

Today less than half of Boston’s population is white, compared to close to 70% in 1980…

68%

22%

6%1% 3%

1980

47%

22%

18%

0%

9%2% 2%

2010

59%

24%

11%

5% 1%

1990

49.5%

24%

14%

8% 1% 3%

2000


Boston’s neighborhoods are more diverse today than they were in 2000

North DorchesterSouth Dorchester

Harbor Islands

Boston

South End

Roslindale

Hyde Park

Jamaica Plain

RoxburyEast Boston

Feneway/ Kenmore

Allston/ Brighton

Central

West Roxbury

Charlestown

Mattapan

South Boston

Back Bay/ Beacon Hill

0.00

0.50

1.00

2010 2000

Source: US Census 2010, BRA Research Division Analysis

Immigrants are a big part of this story…

Historically, Boston has had a greater proportion of foreign-born residents than the Commonwealth and the country…

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2006

2009

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%Boston

Massachusetts

United States

Foreign-born Population 1850 – 2009 (% of total population)

Boston ranks 6th among the 25 largest cities in the U.S. in proportion of the population that is foreign-born…

Foreign Born Rank % Foreign Born City Population Rank

1 39.1% Los Angeles, CA 22 38.6% San Jose, CA 103 37.2% New York, NY 14 35.5% San Francisco, CA 135 28.7% Houston, TX 46 26.9% Boston, MA 227 26.1% San Diego, CA 88 25.3% Dallas, TX 99 24.6% El Paso, TX 19

10 20.7% Chicago, IL 311 20.0% Phoenix, AZ 612 18.7% Austin, TX 1413 17.2% Seattle, WA 2314 16.9% Fort Worth, TX 1615 14.4% San Antonio, TX 716 14.4% Charlotte, NC 1717 13.5% Washington, DC 2418 11.6% Philadelphia, PA 519 11.0% Columbus, OH 1520 10.9% Nashville, TN 2521 9.4% Jacksonville, FL 1122 9.0% Indianapolis, IN 1223 7.1% Baltimore, MD 2124 6.2% Memphis, TN 2025 4.8% Detroit, MI 18

Source: 2010 Census, BRA Research Division Analysis.

1990 2000 2010 350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

461,798

436,742

457,239

573,287

590,490

623,134

Boston’s Population Trends – (1990 – 2010)

Native

Total

Year

Popu

latio

nWithout the influx of immigrants, Boston’s population would be smaller today than it was in 1990…


Boston’s labor force would be smaller as well as its output

1990 2000 2010 150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

229,843

203,454

302,502 288,076 283,576

403,386

Boston’s Workforce Trends (1990 – 2010)

Native EmployedPolynomial (Native Employed)Total Employed

Year

Popu

latio

n

1990 2000 2010 $-

$10,000,000,000

$20,000,000,000

$30,000,000,000

$40,000,000,000

$50,000,000,000

$60,000,000,000

$70,000,000,000

$80,000,000,000

$90,000,000,000

$100,000,000,000

$21 billion

$29 billion

$67 billion

$26 billion

$38 billion

$87 billion

Boston Output Trends (in 2010 dollar)

NativeTotal

Year

U.S.

Dolla

r

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Regional Economic Modeling and Corporate, BRA Research Division Analysis

Immigrants also contribute as consumers and entrepreneurs by creating jobs, wealth and paying taxes

Source: 2010 Regional Economic Modeling and Corporate, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis

Consumer Impact– Total Consumer Spending: $3.48 billion– Indirect Jobs: 29,044 jobs– Total Direct Taxes Paid: $940 million

Business Impact– Number of Businesses: 7,988– Total Number of Employees

• Direct Jobs: 20,713 jobs• Indirect Jobs: 24,267 jobs

– Total Annual Sales: $3.78 Billion

Total Impact– Total Gross State Product:

$9.79 billion– State and Federal Taxes:

$1.54 billion– Total Direct & Indirect

Jobs: 74,025

…today most immigrants come from the Caribbean, Latin America and Asia, contributing to Boston’s “majority-minority” status

Trinidad & Tobago

Brazil

Ireland

Colombia

Jamaica

El Salvador

Vietnam

Dominican Republic

China

Haiti

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

2.5%

3.1%

3.3%

3.3%

4.2%

4.2%

4.2%

8.3%

8.9%

10.2%

Source: 2010 Census, BRA Research Division Analysis.

Boston’s Top Ten Immigrant Communities

Progress has been made but there are still

barriers to integration

Less than HS High School Some College Associates Degree Bachelors Degree Graduate Degree0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%32.1%

21.9%

12.6%

5.3%

16.8%

11.4%

23.1%

16.8%18.1%

3.8%

24.0%

14.1%

Foreign-Born

Native-Born

32.1% of immigrants have not completed high school compared to 23.1% of native born

Source: 2000 Census Public Use Microdata Sample and 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis

Educational Attainment by Nativity – 2010

… a higher proportion of foreign-born residents have limited English proficiency in 2009 than in 2000

Source: 2000 Census Public Use Microdata Sample and 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis

91.5%

8.5%

2009

English ProficientLimited English Proficiency

92.3%

7.7%

2000

English ProficientLimited English Proficiency

English Proficiency – 2010

The income gap between foreign and native born grows with level of education

Less than High School

High School Some College Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree $-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$17,402 $22,198

$30,145

$36,250 $40,284

$62,679

$16,318

$28,149

$32,241

$42,253

$66,867

$94,550

Foreign-BornNative-Born

Source: 2009 American Community Survey Public Use Micro-data Sample (PUMS), BRA Research Division Analysis

Wage Differential By Educational Attainment

These outcomes are the result of barriers that do not allow immigrants to gain the education, learn the language and acquire the skills they need, hampering their integration

Years in the U.S.

Hig

her I

ncom

eLo

wer

Inc

ome

Upward Integration

Downward Integration

Integration depends on the “Opportunity Structure” immigrants encounter:

Work permits

Education & Training

Certification

Language Acquisition

Access to Employment

Fair Labor Practices

etc…

Middle Class

Integration Paths

…and this is the work ahead of us today

Thank you