2009 October/November Exam Results Analysis Presented at STLSC 15 February 2010

2009 October/November Exam Results Analysis

Presented at STLSC

15 February 2010Professor George Subotzky

Executive Director: Information & Strategic Analysis

Acknowledgements

The following staff members of DISA provided valuable help and support in preparing the examination results information and this presentation:

– Herbert Zemann– Hanlie Liebenberg– Yuraisha Chetty– Esme Wiid– Herman Visser– Elsabe Scheepers– Refiloe Sefadi

Introduction• As part of its “calendarised” reporting outputs, DISA

has been considering the optimal way of reporting various institutional processes, including exam results

• After consulting with relevant stakeholders, we propose that the exam results are reported in three distinct views, namely:– The Exam Sitting view– The Course Success view– The Degree Credit Success view (see below)

• This update presents the latest available exam results for the 2009 October/November sitting, compared to the equivalent results for the years 2005-8

Exam Results Views

•Exam Pass RatePassed/Wrote (for a particular sitting)

•Purpose: Review of assessment validity

•Includes: Students across academic years

•Highest rate: Average 2005-8 = 56,1%

Exam Sitting View

•Course Success RatePassed/Nett Enrolments

•Purpose: Retention/Attrition tracking – includes cancellations and non-activity

•Includes: Single academic year only

•Middle rate: Average 2005-8 = 54,8%

Course Success View

•Degree Credit Success RateWeighted FTEs/Nett Enrolments

•Purpose: Subsidy income & statutory reporting

•Includes: Single academic year only

•Lowest rate: Average 2005-8 = 53,3%

Degree Credit Success View

Sitting Details Report

May/June S1 Exams (current year) August

October/November

S2 Exams (current year)Y Exams (current year)S1 Supplementary Exams(current year)

January Y Supplementary Exams(previous year)

MarchJanuary/February

Coursework PG Exams(previous year)

May/June S2 Supplementary Exams(previous year)

August

Exam Sitting Schedule – for each academic year

This report: 2009 October/November

sitting view

SupplementaryExamPhase

Gross Enrolments

Admitted

CNon-Active

Nett Enrolments

CAbsentWrote

Results Out.

FailSupplementary Exam AdmittedPass

CSupp

AbsentSuppWrote

SRO

SFSPDrop Out

Re-registration(Repeaters+

Stopouts)

Re-instatement

CNotAdmitted

Attrition

SupplementaryExamResults Phase

ExamAdmissionPhase

ExamWriting Phase

ExamResultPhase

Examination Results Model

Total Oct/NovExam Pass Rate to date,

2005-9

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Exam Pass Rate

0.518423697768

003

0.516636367611

873

0.543065561834

758

0.555783462977

119

0.557483507962

026

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

Oct/Nov Exam Pass Rate to date by College, 2005-9

CAES CEMS CHS CLAW CSET UNISA

2005 0.5328219071664

41

0.4543877918239

54

0.6444382400961

41

0.4859051375289

25

0.4903506907545

18

0.5184419195987

65

2006 0.4514448804851

94

0.4274203100380

11

0.7049782292405

03

0.4952689514411

12

0.3911866242469

38

0.5166363676118

73

2007 0.5104216578821

28

0.4615133273849

18

0.7108720418787

77

0.5263209515487

63

0.4440094683175

54

0.5430655618347

59

2008 0.5296318172868

7

0.4511843954612

47

0.7226049035759

29

0.5526722359449

74

0.4800741679959

66

0.5557834629771

19

2009 0.4947395432383

88

0.4771048869175

62

0.7191842528139

68

0.4868580415408

82

0.4653655576903

63

0.5574848568065

44

5%

25%

45%

65%

Oct/Nov Exam Pass Rate to date by Race, 2005-9

African Coloured Indian White UNISA

2005 0.459097887725033

0.525513051026102

0.517046706789862

0.639753494395574

0.518423697768003

2006 0.453514886610447

0.523101231339218

0.518981625661788

0.651383320203647

0.516636367611873

2007 0.490269780638049

0.554051363726857

0.556563533520848

0.670203813432322

0.543065561834759

2008 0.504668539477386

0.581253440998347

0.581747550129248

0.688067952907471

0.555783462977119

2009 0.516988731148918

0.576467420570813

0.57455546207703

0.671268777071238

0.557483507962026

5%

25%

45%

65%

Oct/Nov Exam Pass Rate to date by Gender, 2005-9

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Female 0.5412828359716

01

0.5500620996740

45

0.5686334939890

43

0.5786246893123

45

0.5849173252686

56

Male 0.4888981632710

4

0.4712398995293

2

0.5070272871263

31

0.5209940551117

32

0.5137661310818

06

UNISA 0.5184236977680

03

0.5166363676118

73

0.5430655618347

59

0.5557834629771

19

0.5574835079620

26

5%

25%

45%

65%

Oct/Nov Exam Pass Rate to date by African, White

Students & Gender, 2005-9

A 2005

A 2006

A 2007

A 2008

A 2009

W 2005

W 2006

W 2007

W 2008

W 2009

F 0.47013926160278

0.47412650340109

7

0.50270184550121

9

0.51603913295678

1

0.53590534542120

3

0.67963578903168

1

0.70424067052484

7

0.71781958941570

7

0.73409440738840

7

0.71967703633341

6

M 0.44571714170301

0.42730684055118

1

0.47380524840122

2

0.48799289030829

3

0.48716807382306

3

0.58527787001539

5

0.57557457282692

7

0.59919586444572

1

0.61585786568537

4

0.59669890695190

3

5%

25%

45%

65%

Oct/Nov Exam Pass Rateto date by Degree Level,

2005-9

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Post-gradu-ate

0.65643383876046

1

0.60459832088115

2

0.54548966582962

9

0.50974953312095

0.55144367629117

8

Under-gradu-ate

0.51233269948072

9

0.51291839080085

4

0.54295643705263

5

0.55795084118747

7

0.55776560477938

UNISA 0.51842369776800

3

0.51663636761187

3

0.54306556183475

9

0.55578346297711

9

0.55748350796202

6

5%

25%

45%

65%

Key Findings• 2009 Oct/Nov EPR slightly up (from 55,58% in 2008 to

55,75%), reflecting a moderate upward trend since 2005

• Despite this increase, Unisa should target at least a 60% average EPR. This would allow us to achieve and supercede the Ministerial target of 56% which applies to the Degree Credit Success Rate

• Amongst the Colleges, CLAW dropped by 6,58%, CAES by 3,49% and CHS by 0,34%. However, CHS remained dominant with a 71,92% EPR. CEMS increased by 2,83%

• Africans showed an increase of 1,23% to 51,70%, with all other race groups showing slight decreases. However, Whites were still dominant with a 67,13% EPR in 2009

Key Findings

• Female students remained dominant with a 58,49% EPR in 2009, thus showing a steady increase each year from 54,13% in 2005. Males showed a slight decline of 1,92% between 2008 and 2009

• Significantly, African and white females showed increases, while a significant gap between white male and white female achievement was evident. The reasons for this should be investigated

• The apparent decline in PG should be also investigated

• Attrition and failure will be systematically addressed as part of retention and success initiative