2009 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast 21 May 2009 Kevin Reyes Director, Business Development Boeing Launch Services [email protected] Cover art by John.

2009 Commercial GSO Demand

Forecast

21 May 2009

Kevin ReyesDirector, Business Development

Boeing Launch [email protected]

Cover art by John Sloan/FAA

2009 Commercial SpaceTransportation Forecasts

FAA Commercial Space Transportation (AST)and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC)

May 2009

Federal AviationAdministration

22009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast

5/21/2009

GSO FORECAST AGENDA

• Forecast Summary

• Working Group

• Market Description

• Methodology

• Forecast Sensitivities

• Demand Forecast

• Launch Forecast

• 2008-2009 Totals Comparison

• Operator Assessments

• Trends

• Summary


5/21/2009

2009 GSO Demand Summary

2009-2018 commercial GSO satellite and launch demand forecast decreased by 1 from 2008

Average 20.8

Average 15.7


5/21/2009

Working Group Members

Gwynne Shotwell SpaceX(2008 & 2009 GSO Forecast Chair)

Kevin Reyes Boeing (2009 GSO Forecast Deputy Chair)

John Sloan FAA AST

Lisa Hague Aerospace Corp.

Jozsef Lore Boeing

Veronica Johnson United Launch Alliance

Alan Keisner SpaceX

David Keslow Orbital

Chris Kunstadter XL Insurance

Tom Monroe SS/L

Jennifer Micelli Tecolote Research / USAF / SMC / MV

Peter Stier Sea Launch

Jeanne Beesley Boeing

Beth King Lockheed Martin

Deborah Facktor Lepore Air Launch


5/21/2009

GSO Methodology

• Information requested of ~ 90 launch providers, satellite manufacturers & operators 21 companies responded in 2009 (29 in 2008)

• Individual & comprehensive responses

• Int’l competitive procurements only

• Sort satellites by mass categories Small - < 2,500 kg Medium - 2,500 to 4,200 kg Large - 4,200 to 5,400 kg Extra Large - > 5,400 kg

• Assign satellite demand to launchers


5/21/2009

GSO MethodologyCont.

• Questionnaire on factors affecting their satellite procurement plans 13 satellite operators responded in 2009 (17 in 2008)

• 6 operators responded in both 2008 & 2009

• 7 new responders in 2009

• Near term manifest (2009-2011)

• Long term forecast (2012-2018)


5/21/2009

GSO Forecast Sensitivities

•Realization factor developed for sensitivitiesMaximum and Minimum Variations of actual launches vs.

forecasted demand Calculated over 5-year rolling period

• Several factors identified that impact launch forecastSatellite-Related issuesLaunch Vehicle-Related issuesSchedule-Related issues

• Dual-Manifesting

WeatherPlan performanceFundingRegulatory


5/21/2009

GSO Satellite Demand Forecast

0

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Historical 1st Year Satellite Demand Forecast

2009 Satellite Demand Forecast

Actual Satellites Launched

= Expected Realization

Historical 1st Yr Forecast

Long-Term Demand Forecast

Near-Term Manifest

Actual


5/21/2009

GSO Satellite Demand ForecastMass Category

< 2.5 t

2.5 - 4.2 t

4.2 - 5.4 t

> 5.4 t

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Actual Long-Term Forecast

Near-Term

Manifest


5/21/2009

GSO Launch Forecast

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Single Manifest Launches

Actuals Long-Term Demand Forecast

Near-Term

Manifest


5/21/2009

2008-2009 GSO Forecast Total Comparison

Parameter2008 Forecast

(2008-2017)2009 Forecast

(2009-2018)

# S Satellites 25 17

# M Satellites 64 74

# L Satellites 72 57

# XL Satellites 57 60

Total # Satellites 218 208

Total # Launches 162 157


5/21/2009

Satellite Operator AssessmentSignificant Negative Impact

Some Negative Impact

No Effect

Some Positive Impact

Significant Positive Impact

Compared to 2008

Regional or global economic conditions 0% 77% 23% 0% 0%

Demand for satellite services 8% 23% 23% 38% 8%

Ability to compete with terrestrial services 15% 15% 69% 0% 0%

Availability of financing 23% 46% 8% 23% 0%

Availability of affordable insurance 0% 23% 46% 31% 0%

Consolidation of service providers 0% 15% 77% 8% 0%

Increasing satellite life times 0% 38% 54% 8% 0%

Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements 0% 8% 54% 31% 8%

Reliability of satellite systems 0% 38% 38% 15% 8%

Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements 8% 15% 46% 23% 8%

Reliability of launch systems 0% 31% 46% 23% 0%

Ability to obtain required export licenses 0% 15% 69% 8% 8%

Ability to obtain required operating licenses 8% 15% 69% 8% 0%


5/21/2009

GSO Trends

• Long-Term Satellite ForecastRelatively stable in the near term

• Satellites – flat to slight decrease

• Launch demand – slight decrease

• Satellite mass – slight increase

• Transponders per satellite – slight increase

Relatively consistent average in the long term• Launch demand – flat (~15 launches/yr)

• Satellites – flat (~20 satellites/yr)


5/21/2009

GSO Forecast Summary

• 2009 satellite demand of 27 planned for 21 launches Combination of single and dual manifest

• 2010 satellite demand of 21 planned for 16 launches Combination of single and dual manifest

• Projected average annual demand (2009-2018) 20.8 satellites 15.7 launches

• Other factors identified may affect launchers New launch vehicle entrants Dual manifest launches

• Operator assessments negative compared to 2008 Some responder changes from 2008 survey Uncertain economic conditions Reliability of launchers/satellites

Hosted payloads ITAR free satellites

2009 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast 21 May 2009 Kevin Reyes Director, Business Development Boeing Launch Services [email protected] Cover art by John.

Documents

commercial gso demand

gso launch forecast

commercial gso satellite

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launch providers

long term forecast

forecasted demand

assign satellite demand