Session 8: Climate change and Australia's international transport links—aviation and maritime challenges 8 th BITRE Transport Colloqu Australian Transport – building capacity and competitiveness David Cosgrove Parliament House Canberra 18-19 June 2008
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Session 8: Climate change and Australia's international transport links—aviation and maritime challenges
8th BITRE Transport Colloquium Australian Transport – building capacity and competitiveness
David Cosgrove
Parliament House Canberra18-19 June 2008
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1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007
billio
n p
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billio
n lit
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Total Australian passenger task
National liquid fuel sales
Steadily increasing passenger and freight tasks
Steadily increasing transport energy use
Sources: BITRE estimates – for domestic transport, ABARE fuel consumption data – for domestic sales.
mInternational shipping(into and out of Australia)
International aviation
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
Rail
Road
Including here, for demonstration purposes, both total exports and imports for Australian trade. Even though this would result in double-counting, if totalled across different nations, there is not yet any agreed framework for consistently allocating portions of aggregate international tasks to particular countries.
mInternational shipping(into and out of Australia)
International aviation
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
Rail
Road
Note that if only Australian imports were included here, the international tonne-km values would be much lower (by about a factor of 8 for current task levels).
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
mill
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International shipping
International aviation
International transport, CO2 emission projections
Sources: BITRE estimates based on ICAO, IMO and IEA data
Sources: ABARE (2008, website data release), Apelbaum (2007), Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (2008, fuel sales data), BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates.
Base case projections
Allows for international aviation and shipping to and from Australia (allocating half of their total fuel use; as an example of one method for avoiding double-counting of global emissions, when totalling across different countries).
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
Source: BITRE (2008)
It is important to consider all sources and
all gases when
estimating total
warming effects –
especially for aviation, due to
high-altitude effects for
some non-CO2
emissions
References and further reading, from the BITRE website:
BTRE (2002), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report 107http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/93/Files/r107.pdf
BTRE (2006), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To 2020, Report to AGOhttp://www.bitre.gov.au/info.aspx?NodeId=16
BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94
Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions from Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends to 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, BTRE 2003http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/36/Files/ea_btre.pdf
BITRE (2008, forthcoming Working Paper), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport – 2007: Projections to 2020
http://www.bitre.gov.au/
David Cosgrove Climate change and Australia's international transport