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Foreclosure and Housing
Market Trends in Chicago andNorth Lawndale
Geoff Smith
Woodstock Institute
Lawndale Alliance
Community Awareness Town Hall Meeting
May 19, 2009
WOODSTOCK INSTITUTE
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Quarterly Changes in Chicago Area Foreclosure Starts, 2003 to 2008 4Q
Source: Woodstock Institute analysis ofdata from Foreclosure ReportofChicago
Foreclosure Trends inthe Chicago Region
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1Q-03 2Q-03 3Q-03 4Q-04 1Q-04 2Q-04 3Q-04 4Q-04 1Q-05 2Q-05 3Q-05 4Q-05 1Q-06 2Q-06 3Q-06 4Q-06 1Q-07 2Q-07 3Q-07 4Q-07 1Q-08 2Q-08 3Q-08 4Q-08
Properties with Foreclosure Starts
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2008 Foreclosures in Chicago
City ofChicago 100.5percent increasebetween 2006 and 2008
OHare 646.2%
West Ridge 383.6%
Albany Park 3 2.3%
Dunning 3 9.8%
Portage Park 33 .3%
North Lawndale 89.3%
City ofChicago 20,592singlefamily properties
with foreclosurefilings Austin 1,017
Chicago Lawn 744
West Englewood 719
BelmontCragin 687
Humboldt Park 666
North Lawndale - 405Source: Woodstock Institute analysis ofdata from Foreclosure ReportofChicago
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2008 Foreclosures in Chicago
City ofChicago - 36.2singlefamily foreclosuresper1,000 mortgageableproperties
Top Five
Washington Park 181.1
GrandBoulevard 14 .8
Woodlawn 12 .6
EastGarfield Park 88.6
Englewood 82.8
North Lawndale 74.8
Bottom Five
ArmourSquare 3.5
Lincoln Park 5.7
Edison Park 8.4
ForestGlen 10.1
Hegewisch 10.2
Source: Woodstock Institute analysis ofdata from Foreclosure ReportofChicago
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2008 Foreclosures in Chicago ImpactonRental Marketsand Condo Owners
Foreclosures Impact Rental
Market Tenant evictions
Supply and Demand
Small Multi-Unit Buildings
32% ofForeclosures inChicago in 2008
Community Areas Impacted WestGarfield Park 86.6%
North Lawndale 79.5%
LowerWest Side 79.3%
EastGarfield Park 78.0%
New City 70.3%
Condoforeclosuresrising Impact owners
Community
Community Areas Impacted
Rogers Park
West Ridge
Grand Boulevard Woodlawn Source: Woodstock Institute analysis ofdata from Foreclosure ReportofChicago
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Source: Woodstock Institute analysis ofdata from Foreclosure ReportofChicago
Increasing FlowofREO Properties Into Market
Foreclosure Auctionsby Volumeand Outcome Type, 2005to 2008
,8
5,
2,8
22,
,
,
5
8
0
5
0
5,000
0,000
5,000
20,000
25,000
2005 200
200
2008
REO Third Party
ales
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Source: Woodstock Institute analysis ofdata from Foreclosure ReportofChicago
Disproportionate ImpactonCommunitiesofColor
REO Auctions Comparedto Mortgageable Propertiesby Neighborhood Minority Level, 2007
7
27
2
2
2
0
7
2
0
00
0
0
0
0
20 0
2 0
0 0
0
00
0 P e rc e n to r r eat er A fric a n A m e ric a n
0 P e rc e n to r r eat er La tin o
0 P e rce n to r r eat er M ixe d M in o rity
20
P e rce n tM in o rity
0 P e rce n tM in o rity
L e ss th a n 0 P e rce n tM in o rity
ha re R e g io n a l P r oper tie s ha re R e g io n a l R EO s
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Source: Woodstock Institute analysis ofdata from Foreclosure ReportofChicago and Cook County RecorderofDeeds
What Happensto REOs Post SherriffSale?
TimeofMarketforREO Foreclosures in Portage Park byQuarter, 2005to 2008 1H
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20051Q 2005 2Q 20061Q 2006 2Q 20071Q 2007 2Q 2008 1Q
Time Period
Dayson Market1 120 Dayson Market121 365
Dayson Market 365+ Dayson Market Not Sold
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Source: Woodstock Institute analysis ofdata from Foreclosure ReportofChicago and Cook County RecorderofDeeds
What Happensto REOs Post SherriffSale?
TimeofMarketforREO Foreclosures in Englewoodby Half, 2005to 2008 1H
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20051Q 2005 2Q 20061Q 2006 2Q 20071Q 2007 2Q 2008 1Q
Time Period
Dayson Market1 120 Dayson Market121 365
Dayson Market 365+ Not Sold
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Changes in Mortgage LendingActivity, 2006to 2007
Overall Change in Home Purchaselending 31.0% decline
Neighborhood Income Level
Low Income: 31.9% decline
Moderate Income: 36% decline
Middle Income: 34.1% decline
Upper Income: 25.5% decline
Neighborhood MinorityComposition
80%+ Minority: 42% decline
Lessthan10%: 27.3% decline
Borrower Income Level
LMI: 32.3% decline
MUI: 28.5% decline
Borrower Race/Ethnicity
African American: 37.5% decline
Latino: 45.3% decline
White: 25.6% decline
Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act
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Local Real Estate Market Trendsand Outlook
Sales Price Trends Chicago MSA 25.1percentdeclinesincepeak in September2006
Case SchillerComposite 20 30.4 percentdeclineofoversameperiod
Decline Sharpest in Lowest Cost Housing
Valuelessthan $190k 29.3 percentdecline
Valuegreaterthan $297k 24 percentdecline
Condovaluessomewhatstable
13 Percentdeclinefrompeak
Lag?
Morerestrictivelendingmarket
Federal Reserve SeniorLoan OfficerSurvey
Decliningmarketspolicy
Condolending costsandrestrictions
Implicationsforneighborhoodrecovery NSP
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Foreclosure and Housing
Market Trends in Chicago
Geoff Smith, Vice President
Woodstock Institute
29 E. Madison, Suite 1710
Chicago, IL 60602
www.woodstockinst.org
WOODSTOCK INSTITUTE