1 2008 Half Year Results 19 August 2008 O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D
2
2008 Half Year Results Agenda
Performance Summary Peter Botten
Financial Overview Stephen Gardiner
Operations Review Phil Caldwell
PNG LNG Project Phil Bainbridge
Growth Opportunities Peter Botten and Outlook
4
2008 First Half Performance Summary
NPAT, excluding MENA sale profit, of US$133.3 million, nearly three times higher than in 2007 first half
Record oil prices – unhedged, average realised price of US$115 per barrel, 63% above pcp
Sound underlying performance of PNG oil fields
Divestment of MENA assets realises profit of US$132 million
Landmark decisions taken on PNG LNG Project, now in FEED phase
Progressing opportunities to commercialise remaining gas resources
Active exploration programme in PNG
Board approves an unchanged interim dividend of four US cents per share. Payable on 10 October 2008
5
Indexed Share Price Performance
Sh
are
pri
ce (
reb
ase
d t
o O
SH
)
OSH
STO
WPL
ASX200
WTI
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
7
Earnings Performance
EBITDAX up 64% on prior first half
Revenue
EBITDAX
Core Profit
US$m
233.4
323.3 305.4
466.7
188.3
276.8
249.8
410.7
63.9
115.3
46.9
133.3
0
100
200
300
400
500
1H05 1H06 1H07 1H08
8
2008 First Half Performance
Oil Sales (mmbbl)Realised oil price (US$/bbl)(US$’m)RevenueCash ExpensesEBITDAXExploration ExpenseCore Profit
1H07
3.75114.99
466.7(56.0)410.7
(70.6)133.3*
1H08
4.0770.69
305.4(56.4)249.8
(66.2)46.9
Record half year revenue and core profit reflects 63% increase in realised oil prices, slightly offset by 8% fall in oil sales volumes
Cash expenses flat, period on period
* Excludes net profit of US$131.1 million on sale of MENA assets/JV licence sale profit adjustment
+53%
+64%
+184%
-8%
+63%
9
Results – Other Factors
Sale of MENA assets recognised in P&L effective from 1 May. Profit on sale of US$132 million not subject to tax Non-cash charges higher due to full period depreciation of two drill rigs and first-time take-up of “time value” of future site restoration outlays in Finance CostsExploration expenses up by 7% to US$70.6m, including:
2 unsuccessful exploration wells: one in PNG and one in EgyptG&G, G&A and business development costs
51% effective tax rate on core profit consistent with the majority of exploration expenses incurred in PNG and hence tax deductible
10
Continuing Cost Pressures
1H07 1H08US$’m US$’m
Field Costs- Oil: PNG- Oil: MENA- Hides
28.48.02.8
32.94.34.2
Other Prod’nOpex
39.2 41.4
- Oil- Hides
8.20.1
8.80.2
8.3 9.0
Net Corp Costs 7.0 4.1
FX Losses 1.9 1.5
Total 56.4 56.0
PNG oil field cost increase driven by:
Rising labour costs, reflecting global industry pressures
Stronger A$ and Kina (14% & 12% increases respectively)
Record crude prices flowing into 50% higher fuel costs (recovered as refinery sales revenue)
Increased materials and chemicals prices
MENA cost base lower than in 2007. Asset sale effective May 2008
Fall in corporate costs reflects strong focus on cost control
1111
Operating Cash Flows
Openi
ngCas
h*Ope
ratin
gIn
vest
ing
Fina
ncin
gClo
sing
Cash*
Operating cashflow included US$78m of tax paid (with 2nd PNG tax instalment of US$136m paid in late July)
Investing outflows included US$85m on production/development and US$147m on exploration, evaluation & gas commercialisation
Financing outflows included US$45m of dividends (2007 final)
* Includes Company share of JV cash balances
344344
348348
(61)(61)
400400
US$’m
0
125
250
375
500
625
750
(231)(231)
12
US$400 million in cash at end June incl. JV balances; no debt. Approximately US$205 million to be received in third quarter upon settlement of MENA asset saleRefinancing of 5 year US$ oil facility in final stages:
Very positive response from bank market with competitive offers for more than twice the amount soughtFacility size increased by US$50 million to US$450 millionPricing and facility terms more favourable than those on the facility it is replacingAlmost half the facility provided without political risk insurance – strong endorsement for PNG
No oil hedging undertaken during first half of year or currently in place
Treasury Update
13
FY08 Capital Outlook Update
Exploration expenditure for full year 2008 expected to be US$150 - 160 million, inclusive of acquisition of Shakal interest in Kurdistan
Gas commercialisation and new business expenditure of US$80 million, including growing FEED spend on PNG LNG as activities ramp up
Development expenditure of US$150 million, plus US$20 million on rig acquisition payments
15
Production Summary
NET Production (mmboe)
MENA
Hides GTE
SE Mananda
SE Gobe
Gobe Main
Moran
Kutubu
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1H 06 2H 06 1H 07 2H 07 1H 08
16
Field-by-field performance
KutubuReservoirs performing wellProduction in 2Q08 boosted by UDT 8, the first development well drilled with new Rig 103, after delays in rig commissioning and drilling operationsUDT 9 subsequently drilled and completed and UDT 10 recently spudded; two further Usano wells to follow
MoranNatural field decline, with no new wells drilled in 1H08Moran 14 drilling underway, first of three-well development programmePDL 6 production licence granted end April
Gobe Main and SE GobeUnderlying reservoir performance better than expectationsField management activities bearing fruit
SE Mananda & HidesStable production performance
17
Field Development Drilling Activity
Usano:2008 : 4 wells2009 : 1 wells
SE Gobe:2010 : 1-2 wells
Kutubu:2009 : 3 wells
Agogo:2009 : 2 wells
Moran:2008 : 1-2 wells2009 : 1-2 wells
18
PNG Drilling Update
Rig 103:Spudded UDT-8 end Dec 07. Some operational problems which delayed well completionSignificant improvement on UDT-9 development wellRigged up and commissioned leapfrog unit and spudded UDT-10 well
Rig 104:Delayed primarily due to late delivery of specialist drilling equipmentRig due to commence drilling activities in late Dec 08
Parker Rig 226:NW Paua exploration well completed in Jul 08Rig moved to Moran 14 development well, currently drilling aheadContract with Parker expires at end of Moran 14 well
Rig 101, (ex Rig 2):Spudded Cobra in January. Challenging geology on Cobra resulted in significant overrunsPresently drilling Cobra 1A ST3, complete in Aug 08Contract expires with HAES at end of Cobra 1A well. Future programme under review
Hydraulic Workover Unit:Mobilised low cost workover unit and completed first workover
19
FY 2008 Outlook
Following MENA sale, production outlook for FY2008 of 8.5 – 9.0 mmboe
PNG production subject to results of:
Drilling campaign at Usano (4 wells) and Moran (2 wells), workover campaign (6 in Kutubu)
Field uptime availability and ongoing reservoir management
Continued focus on costs and capital efficiency
20
2009 PNG Drilling Programme
Currently evaluating optimal programme
Rig 103 and 104 will be focused on delivering production wells
Evaluating potential use of another rig for appraisal/ exploration / New Gas work
Hydraulic workover unit programme likely to be extended from current 5 well programme
21
PNG Exploration
Cobra resultsThicker Hedinia Sand penetrated than predicted pre-drill−Potential oil zone interpreted to be present−Initial well pressures and samples inconclusive due to probable formation
damage−Drilling sidetrack to get undamaged formation and definitive samples and
pressures−Potential economic volumes present – will need further seismic and evaluation
to define field size and location
Potential play-opener with significant follow-up−De-risks many along strike large structural features already identified in
portfolio
Other oil activities in 2008 include continued seismic for gas and oil exploration/appraisal, in Highlands, Forelands and Offshore
Active programme to optimise interests in existing licences and new venture opportunities underway with target date in 4Q08
22
Cobra 1A – Hedinia Sands
Cobra sub-thrust structure and schematic Hedinia Sand penetrations in sidetracksSignificant sand thickness variation in upper potentially oil-bearing intervalInterpreted dip at well penetrations showing significant updip potential
23
MENA Exploration
First well expected to spud in Shakal PSC in Iraq in 3Q08Seismically defined large 100+mmbbl structure adjacent to existing discoveries
Offshore Libya Block 18 drilling expected in 4Q08Caliph: high risk/high reward structure with potential reserves >1bnbbl. OSH 30%, Petrobras (operator) 70%
TUNISIA
LIBYA
IRAQ
YEMEN
25
World Class and World Scale LNG Project2C resources of 9.5 tcf 6.3mtpa, 2 train LNG projectClean gas with liquidsNo technology issues or concernsWell positioned for the Asia market
Joint Venture is aligned
Supportive Government
Strong OperatorExxonMobil is the Project operator – excellent record of project delivery on time and on budget, assisted by comprehensive pre-FEED processOil Search providing PNG experienceStrong Project team
Rapidly AdvancingProject in FEED phase, with marketing underwayFiscal terms agreed with aligned GovernmentConsidering early works commitment
Optimal time to satisfy regional demand in 2013/2014 period
Real Expansion CapacityOnly 60% of OSH gas resources dedicated to PNG LNGNew infrastructure will stimulate additional gas development
PNG LNG - Premier AsiaPacLNG Project
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PNG LNG - Optimal Timing to meet market requirements
Pacific Basin LNG Supply and Demand to 2020MMTPA
Onstream Under Construction Possible Speculative Pacific LNG Demand
Source Wood MacKenzie Global LNG, April 2008
Notes1. Project Under Construction include: Pluto LNG, Tangguh LNG, Yemen LNG, Qatar Gas 2,3,4, RL3, Angola LNG2. Possible projects include: PNG LNG, Sunrise LGN, Gorgon LNG, Browse, Ichthys, Scarborough, Wheatstone LNG, 4 Gladstone projects, Sulawesi, Abadi, Brunei LNG II, NLNG VII, Brass LNG, OK LNG, Iran LNG3. Speculative projects include: projects that currently lack any reasonable definition in terms of participants, structure or underlying resources as well as defined supply where major issues are preventing the project from making
substantial progress
Regional market fundamentals remain robust
Steady expansion from existing markets (Japan, Korea, Taiwan)
Growth from emerging markets of India & China and new markets
Decline in existing contracts and concern with new project timing
Supply and Demand imbalance after 2012
Projects under construction do not match capacity
Extensive set of projects in queue from 2013 onwards
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
“LNG supply unlikely to keep up with demand with high prices set to continue in the medium term”
“Some of these possible projects are tenuous e.g., LNG from Iran, and actual supply will be lower than shown”
27
4 Projects Gladstone LNG
Sunrise LNGGorgon LNGBrowseIchthysScarboroughPluto LNGWheatstone LNG
Sakhalin 2
PNGLNG
Tangguh LNG
Brunei LNG II
SulawesiAbadi
Yemen LNG
Iran LNG *3
Qatar Gas2,3,4
RL 3
Angola LNG
NLNG VIIBrass LNGOK LNG
Projects Under ConstructionProjects Possible Source Wood MacKenzie Global LNG, April 2008
LNG Projects Under Construction and Proposed
Large number of possible projects under consideration
Not many possible projects will be able to cover the demand gap in 2013
Western Australia: strong cost pressures and competition for resources
Potential first production post 2014/5
Australian CSG projects: 4 projects competing for 2014 window, new technology with several hurdles to be overcomeIncreasing foreign focus
PNG LNG is an attractive option relative to others
28
LNG Pricing
0
5
10
15
20LNG ($/mmbtu)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70JCC ($/b)
80 90 100
Crude Oil Parity
Strong pricing drivers:Supply/demand fundamentals
Pull from Europe
Delays in other projects
Environmental advantages
Pricing and challenges with competing energy sources
Pricing around parity:Supported by recent contracts with pricing at around US$14/mmBTU
Recent contracts:Sept 07: Petrochina, 2-3 mtpa, 15 - 20 years ex Browse
Sept 07: Petrochina, 1 mtpa, 20 years ex Gorgon
Nov 07: CPC, 2-3 mtpa, 15 - 20 years ex Browse
April 08: Petrochina, 3 mtpa, 25 years from 2011 ex QatarGas
April 08: CNOOC, 2 mtpa, 25 years from 2009 ex QatarGas II
Source: FACTS Global Energy
29
PNG LNG Project
MarketingStrongly positioned. Competitive advantages recognised Positive engagement
Project:FEED and schedule on track for EM and Oil Search responsibilitiesPositive scope optimisation
Commercial:Many value enhancements
FinancingRoad shows ongoingContinued positive response
Government:Committed and supportiveLeadership and co-ordination defined
30
Project UpdateEOS (KBR/ WorleyParsons JV) conducting upstream FEED comprising:
Preliminary engineering design for gas field developments Gas conditioning and compression facilitiesPipeline and infrastructure
Downstream FEED (LNG plant, storage, marine facilities) being conducted in two phases:
Non-competitive phase - support from KBR Second, competitive EPC bid phase involving APCI (Air Products and Chemicals, Inc) and COP (ConocoPhillips) process licensed contractors
High quality project team
Oil Search-managed associated gas FEED study commenced with WorleyParsonsFurther capex estimates from EPC bids (3Q09)JV considering proposal for early works programme subject to marketing, Benefits Sharing Agreement and permitting progress
31
LNG Project Schedule
FEED
PNG GovernmentApprovals
Benefits SharingAgreement
Project Financing
Detailed EngineeringDesign & Procurement
Construction /Commissioning
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FirstCargoLNG
*Schedule is Indicative only
FIDPIMClose
Gas Agreement
Entry
Environmental, Licences etc
EPC bids
HOA’sMarketing
SPA’s
Possible early works
32
Commercial Update
For Oil Search, the Project will provide:Annual incremental net production of ~18 mmboe
Booking of over 500 mmboe of Oil Search’s 2P gas resources providing positive impact on depreciation
Past costs pay back by Government on back-in at Final Investment Decision
Value additions to the oilfields by:− Incremental reserves due to extension of oil field life (Gobe to
2024, Kutubu to 2048) and revised reservoir opportunities
− Abandonment deferral
− Additional pipeline tariffs
− Cost sharing benefits in oil fields and pipeline export system
− Reduction of oil field taxation rate on conversion
Detailed field review starting, to analyse field management of gas and oil, optimal development and value synergies− New Moran development plan
33
Commercial Update
Potential for additional value:Initial equity determination at Project sanctionAcceleration/schedule mitigation options:−Early works
The Project will provide additional opportunities:
De-bottlenecking of existing trainsInfrastructure for additional gas developments
34
Government Update
Leadership and Co-ordination defined:Political leadership through Ministerial Economic CommitteeCo-ordination branch approved and being implemented
Retention Licence renewal:Government has announced PRL 11 and PRL 12 renewal
Commitment to pursue Benefits Sharing Agreement:
Targeting 4Q08/1Q09
Long term benefits to Papua New Guinea fully understood:
“Affects economy of PNG and its balance of trade situation profoundly” (ACIL Tasman report)
Strong support for the Project at local community level
36
Gas Growth Opportunities
Delivering PNG LNG Project is the priority:Delivers infrastructure for additional gas growth
Additional LNG developments command the highest value:
Sufficient 2C resources for additional train already exist in PNG fields
Many other gas development options also available with robust economics
Oil Search seeking to: Increase contractible gas (exploration, appraisal, acquisition)
Aggregate gas for highest value development option
Key partnerships with State – MOU signed in July
37
Key Gas Fields in PNG
Hides / Angore Fields (OSH – 27.5%/52.5%)Hides – 5.3 tcf of 2C resource, 3C upside to 10 tcfAngore ~ 1.2 tcf
Kutubu Complex Fields (OSH - 60.0%)~ 1.5 tcf plus liquids, largely developedKey strategic resource and infrastructure hub, high value
Juha Field (OSH 31.5%)~ 0.6 tcfLiquids rich
Other fields include:Kimu (OSH – 60.7%)Barikewa (OSH – 42.5%)Uramu (OSH – 49.6%)P’nyang (OSH – 38.5%)
Significant exploration upside, particularly in offshore region
38
Proposed Exploration Programme
2009 – 2011 exploration programme will test over 9 tcf mean resource (gross), with average POS of ~15%
Testing off-shore prospectivity (Flinders, Bigpela, APPL234, APPL 293) to commence in 2009/10
Huria well, expected to be drilled prior to the Hides development wells which will test Hides 3P upside
Appraisal drilling at Barikewa in 2009 and Pandora in 2010
Flinders
Barikewa Deep
Huria
ForelandShelf
WesternCorridorStage I
OffshoreHub
EasternHub
NorthernHub
WesternCorridorStage II
CentralFoldbelt
Hedinia Deep
Cecilia Iwa
Bigpela
Well 1
Lead 2
39
Gas Growth Opportunities
Additional LNG trains or plants
Capacity for an additional 3.2mtpa LNG train or equivalent available at low cost from existing discoveries
Gas could come from various sources eg Hides, P’nyang, Angore, Barikewa etc
Significant field, pipeline and plant synergies may be obtained
OSH share in future non-Project LNG train expected to be similar to PNG LNG Project interest
40
Gas Growth Opportunities cont.
Other gas commercialisation opportunities can also offer attractive returns, diversification and timely delivery. These range from export oriented projects to domestic micro projects including:
Methanol and other derivativesGas to liquids (GtL)Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)Gas for use in mine operations eg extending mine life at PorgeraPower generation and other smaller projects catering to the needs of local communities & industry
Size of dedicated resource important in defining commercial optionRange of study groups are being formed with Government and other entities to form non-PNG LNG gas development ‘master plan’
41
AGL Asset Sale a Win:Winfor OSH shareholders
AGL is selling its interest in PDL 2 (11.9%) and PDL 4 (66.7%)
Highest bidder expected to be known by mid SeptemberOSH and other licence partners (ExxonMobil, JPP, MRDC) have pre-emptive rights. 30 day pre-emption period post notificationCan pre-empt on either or both licences
Strong investment discipline will be applied when reviewing pre-emption opportunity. Considerations for OSH include:
PriceFunding efficiencyPre-emption intentions of partners
AGL sale process a likely Win:Win for Oil Search shareholders
If a high sale price, demonstrates strong market value and confidence with ‘look through’ implicationsCould represent a potential buying opportunity of well known quality assets subject to meeting investment criteria
42
AGL asset package
25.5%
10.0%
72.3%
49.4%
60.0%
OSH % interest
6.6 mmbbl
2.1 mmbbl
1.7 mmbbl
60.3 mmbbl
41.4 mmbbl
Gross remaining recoverable oil
reserves at 1.1.08
27.3%SE Gobe Unit (PDL 4)
66.7%Gobe Main (PDL 4)
11.9%SE Mananda (PDL 2)
5.2%Moran Unit (PDL 2)
11.9%Kutubu (PDL 2)
AGL % interestAsset
In addition, AGL holds ~3.6% interest in PNG LNG Project (OSH 28-31% post Government back-in)AGL assets have good short-medium term cash flows from oil and small interest in long term legacy projectUnlike OSH, does not have major gas resource upside. Other OSH assets include:
~ 2 tcf 2C gas and associated liquids in non-PNG LNG Project gas fields
Exposure to significant 3C upside in Hides field and in other gas fields
Exploration portfolio in PNG and MENA – 3 year drilling programme will test over 1bnbbl unrisked oil and over 8 tcf unrisked gas (net to OSH)
~ US$600m cash (on settlement of MENA sale)
43
Gas set to dominate portfolio over time
Substantial unrealised value exists within Oil Search’s current asset portfolio, capable of generating superior shareholder returns over next five years and beyondDelivery of PNG LNG alone can deliver 15% plus annual TSR growth (based on US$70/bbl oil price scenario)Further value growth can be delivered through commercialisation of other gas resources and exploration successValue of PNG gas will increasingly dominate portfolio over timeValue calibration from FEED assumes:
Progress on key milestones – gas HOA’s, early worksProgress on demonstrating value growth options
Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13
Existing portfolio can deliver superior TSR
Oil & Other
PNG LNG
Other Gas
(existing)
Valu
e
44
Operational Outlook
Production outlook for 2008 of 8.5 – 9.0 mmboe, post MENA sale
Exploration spend considerably lower in 2H08 than in 1H08. FY spend expected to be ~US$150 - 160 million. FY08 development spend of US$170 million and U$80 million on gas inc LNG FEED. Funded from cash flows and existing cash position
Strong balance sheet, buoyed by MENA cash receipts, cash flows and oil refinancing. Liquidity, post completion of funding facility, of ~US$1bn
Provides excellent financing flexibility
45
Gas Outlook
PNG LNG Project on track to make Final Investment Decision in late 2009, first production expected late 2013/2014. Will deliver key infrastructure to PNG. 30 year+ legacy project
Reserves upside in Hides and debottlenecking opportunities in PNG LNG are likely to provide next tranche of value creation
Significant existing 2C resources outside PNG LNG remain to be commercialised. Value enhanced by PNG LNG Project infrastructure
Oil Search seeking to be catalyst for non-Project gas development
46
Summary
PNG LNG Project and commercialising remaining gas will drive Company value. Rising NPV over time, as cash flows get closer and Project de-risks
Core PNG oil business remains robust, with stable production and cost outlook, provides cash flows to support LNG and other development options
Exploration activities wound back from 2007 high levels, but material prospects still to be drilled in both PNG and MENA
AGL asset sale provides industry value benchmark, with partial value see-through. May provide opportunity to increase PNG LNG interest, but only in the right circumstances – series of gates for decision-making
Considerable upside value in existing asset base still to be recognised by market