2007.01 PV成果發表_slide_share

2007/1/17 1

全球太陽電池產業與市場應用趨勢

Development Trend of

PV Industry and Application

speaker : Harry

2007/1/17 2

到了鯨油用完後 煤油才蓬勃發展

供需之間 ～

PV 之美麗與憂愁

到了石油用完後 PV 才蓬勃發展

Between Demand and Supply ～ The next step of PV

kerosene is popular after burning the Blubber out !

PV is popular after burning the Oil out ?

Before the presentation ,

2007/1/17 3

Content

• Why do we talk about PV ?

• What is PV ?

• The supply of PV

• The demand of PV

• The vision of PV

• Conclusion

2007/1/17 4

Well-to-Wheel energy efficiency

• Honda Civic 0.51 km/MJ

• VW Jetta Diesel 0.45 km/MJ

Source : Tesla Motors

1. 傳統能源終將耗盡的危機

For live

2. 溫室效應的日趨惡化

For survive

The CO2 Emissions per 1 TJ ︰

Type The product of CO2 ( t / TJ )

Coal 94.4～98.3

Oil 69.3～77.4

Gas 56.1

Why do we talk about PV ?

Type Oil Gas Coal Nuclear

Proven reserves /

Annual production ( years ) 42 64 155 85

( Reasonable )

Source : COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

2007/1/17 5

A simple calculation about CO2

Emissions

CO2

Coking Coal 燃料煤 2.48 ( kg / kg )

LPG 液化石油氣 1.74 ( kg / L )

Residual Fuel Oil 燃料油 2.95 ( kg / L )

diesel oil 柴油 2.68 ( kg / L )

Gasoline 汽油 2.34 ( kg / L )

Electricity 電 0.66 ( kg / kwh)

• 約 6 億輛越野車碳的總排放量 • 約15 億輛小汽車碳的總排放量

Source :

ROC Environmental Protection Administration

Foundation of Taiwan Industry Service Taipei

Tainan

~70kg

~130kg

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ( by fuel type )

每年碳的排放量

10億噸意味著什麼？

2007/1/17 6

PV ( Photo-Voltaic) is …

PV Array Consumptive

energy

Coal

Crude Oil

Gas

Solar

Energy

Battery

Inverter

Aerosphere

Efficiency

Loss

Nuclear

Efficiency

Loss

2007/1/17 7

The supply of PV

wafer

Mine Silica

stone

Metallic

silica

Trichlorosilane (HSiCl3)

poly-Si

sc-Si

slicing

slicing cutting

IC - chip

casting

CZ

Crystal

Puller

Refining

Purification

- Deposition

wafer

wafer

ingot

The process of making PV -1

2007/1/17 8

Wafer

measuring

& testing

Etching Diffusion Deposition Metalization

Drying & Firing Cell measuring

& testing Package & installation

The process of making PV -2

2007/1/17 9

Comparison of market share

in PV supply chain

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Si wafer cell module

>=20%

>=15%

>=10%

The rank of makers ( with high production capacity )

The ratio of

market share

Hemlock,27% REC-Scan

Wafer,20%

Sharp,11%

Sharp,20%

Q-Cells,10% Deutsche,16%

M.SETEK,10%

Tokuyama,15%

REC,15%

Wacker,15%

MEMC,10%

Silicon PV-wafer Cell Module

Source : Companies , PIDA

2007/1/17 10

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

IC-demand 19,866 21,853 24,256 27,361 30,453 33,894

Si Solar-demand 18,558 21,483 25,879 39,215 48,745 61,788

2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)

Silicon

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

supply 36,650 43,050 47,700 57,980 75,730 95,480

demand 38,424 43,336 50,135 66,576 79,198 95,682

2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)

Source : Companies , PIDA

17.5% 10.8%

21.6%

30.6%

26.1%

Supply and demand of c-Si feedstock ( t )

27.8%

11.3%

12.8% 15.7% 32.8% 19.0% 20.8%

2007/1/17 11

Silicon

Hemlock 26.6%

Tokuyama 15.7%REC 15.4%

Wacker 15.7%

MEMC 10.1%

Mitsubishi 7.9%

Sumitomo 3.2% Others 5.3%

Source : PHOTON International , PIDA

Share of c-Si makers in 2006

Source : PHOTON International

MG-Si makers capacities ( ton )

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Apollon /

Ferroatlantica 200 200 - - -

Dowing

Corning 1,000 1,000 - - -

ELKEM 50 50 5,000 5,000 -

JFE 100 100 500 - 1,000

Scheuten 300 300 - 1,000 -

Solar Value - - 1,100 - -

Others - - - - 5,000

80%

Siemens process

2007/1/17 12

REC ScanWafer

20.4%

Deutsche Solar

16.3%

M.SETEK 9.3%

BP Solar 6.7%

LDK 5.8%

Others 29.1%

Yingli 7.3%

Green Energy

5.1%

Wafer

Share of PV wafer makers in 2006

Source : PHOTON International , PIDA

2007/1/17 13

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

wafer thickness 200 180 170 160 150

2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)

Wafer thickness development (μm )

Source : EPIA

String/Ribbon

Sphelar®

Source : Kyosemi

Source : Evergreen, Schott

Wafer

sawing

2007/1/17 14

Cell

Source : PHOTON International , PIDA

Source : PIDA

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

Si consumption 12.85 12.13 10.62 9.19 8.93 8.58

2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)

Sharp 18.5%

Q-Cells 8.7%others 37.3%

Kyocera 6.5%

Sanyo 5.6%

Mitsubishi

4.6%

RWE Schott

4.1%

Deutsche Cell

4.1%

Motech 5.2% Suntech 5.6%

Silicon consumption ( g / Wp ) Share of PV cell makers in 2006

semiconductor-like process

2007/1/17 15

others 58.67%

Sharp 11.12%

MSK* 4.26%

Kyocera 5.93%

Sanyo 3.71%

Mitsubishi 3.71%

Suntech 3.71%

深圳珈偉 2.97%

Solar Factory 2.97%

Solon 2.97%

Module

Share of PV module makers in 2006

Source : PHOTON International , PIDA

• Made in market

• Customized / standard

2007/1/17 16

Module

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

supply 1,378 1,759 2,319 3,715 5,218 7,184

demand 1,296 1,640 1,929 2,735 3,916 5,386

2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)

Supply and demand of c-Si PV module ( MW )

Source : PIDA

26.5% 17.6% 41.8% 43.2% 37.5%

33.3%

39.6%

2007/1/17 17

635 794 992 1,2401,550

2,100290

363453

566

708

885

345

509

750

314

439

593

746

1,104

1,634

108

159234

35114

20920

30

45

113

226

500

230

340

504

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

GERMANY JAPAN US SPAIN, ITALY, FRANCE, GREECE & Portugal CHINA ROW

Module

Share of worldwide PV Module ( MW , include thin-film cell )

Source : PIDA

2007/1/17 18

Poly-Si Ingot/wafer cell module/inverter Ribbon

Sharp

Q-Cells

Kyocera

BP Solar

Sanyo

Mitsubishi

Motech

Suntech

Deutsche Cell

E-Ton

Evergreen Ever-Q

REC-ScanWafer

MEMC

schott

Sunways AG

ErSol

REC

Deutsche

Solar AG

SolarWorld

AG

Shell Solar

Thin-film

Shell Solar change over

Solibro GmbH

( CIGS )

Suntech

schott

Evergreen

Ever-Q

schott

BP Solar

tech

nano

Strategy of

top 10 cell makers

schott

Solar System

Group

Green Energy

MSK

M.SETEK

Solar Factory

BP Solar

HIT

Sharp ( a /μ Si

efficiency 8.5% ) Sharp

Kyocera

Sanyo

Mitsubishi

Solibro AB,Sweden

2006.10 – 18.5%(muti-Si 15cm2)

2006.11 – 20% in 2007(with UNSW)

2006.11

Sunlight

Comtec

Kyocera

Atersa SunEdison

AE

EFG

wafer

AVANCIS(CIS)

Saint-Gobain

glass

Prime Solar

SAS

Hemlock

Suntech

Renesola

Motech

日本 IIS 材料

日本 IIS 材料

2007/1/17 19

Poly-Si Ingot/wafer cell module/inverter Ribbon

Sharp

Q-Cells

Kyocera

BP Solar

Sanyo

Mitsubishi

Motech

Suntech

Deutsche Cell

E-Ton

Evergreen Ever-Q

REC-ScanWafer

MEMC

schott

Sunways AG

ErSol

REC

Deutsche

Solar AG

SolarWorld

AG

Shell Solar

Thin-film

Shell Solar change over

Solibro GmbH

( CIGS )

Suntech

schott

Evergreen

Ever-Q

schott

BP Solar

tech

nano

Strategy of

top 10 cell makers

schott

Solar System

Group

Green Energy

MSK

M.SETEK

Solar Factory

BP Solar

HIT

Sharp ( a /μ Si

efficiency 8.5% ) Sharp

Kyocera

Sanyo

Mitsubishi

Solibro AB,Sweden

2006.10 – 18.5%(muti-Si 15cm2)

2006.11 – 20% in 2007(with UNSW)

2006.11

Sunlight

Comtec

Kyocera

Atersa SunEdison

AE

EFG

wafer

AVANCIS(CIS)

Saint-Gobain

glass

Prime Solar

SAS

Hemlock

Suntech

Renesola

Motech

日本 IIS 材料

日本 IIS 材料 vertical integration

2007/1/17 20

System ~100%

module ~70%

cell ~50%

c-Si ~15%

Ingot ~6%，sawing ~3%

package ~10%

wafer ~30%

inverter ~10%，install ~15%

cost structure of PV system

PV system : 7USD/Wp

(module = 4.88 USD/Wp)

700cent / 20year

~ 32cent / KWH

etching, diffusion,...~5%

Taiwan residential electricity price (per kilowatt-hour ) is 2.51 NT ~ 8cents

2007/1/17 21

Solar Electricity Prices

Mass production for cost reduction ( 1 ~ 1,5 € / W in 2012 )

Source : EPIA 1.2 ~ 1.8 USD

Source : solarbuzz , 2007/1

2007/1/17 22

The price of PV module and Petroleum Petroleum ( USD / basket )

50

55

60

65

70

05'12

06'01

06'02

06'03

06'04

06'05

06'06

06'07

06'08

06'09

06'10

06'11

06'12

Source : solarbuzz , 2007/1

Source : OPEC , 2007/1

PV module ( 125W, USD / Wp )

4.7

4.75

4.8

4.85

4.9

05'12

06'01

06'02

06'03

06'04

06'05

06'06

06'07

06'08

06'09

06'10

06'11

06'12

10%

1%

2007/1/17 23

Eat enough

Eat good

Eat healthy

Identification

&

Individualism

Making consumers followers ,

we need to follow them first.

The demand of PV

Does it works ?

Is it useful ?

Do you like it ?

User Centered Design

Maker Centered Design

The demand of humanity

技術導向

使用者導向

2007/1/17 24

The shipment and market of demand

2004 ~ 2010 PV demand forecast ( MW , include thin-film cell )

Demand 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)

Grid-connected 1200 1500 1875 2681 3834 5483

Off-grid 300 390 507 659 857 1114

Consumer 80 96 115 138 166 200

Total 1580 1986 2497 3478 4857 6797

PV application

Type Application

On grid Circuit of lighting, socket, air conditioner, waterworks, …

Off-grid communication facilities, warning signal/indicator, road/garden lamp , …

Emergency Lighting, communication and waterworks in emergency

Consumer power supply or charger of 3C product, handset, vehicle , …

Source : PIDA , 2006/12

Source : PIDA , 2006/12

2007/1/17 25

• Power demand

• Mobile demand • Handset

• Vehicle

• Housing demand

What kind of demand should

we need ?

2007/1/17 26

Power demand

Energy type Recent cost Target cost

PV 20~40 4~10

Water 2~8 2

Wind 3~5 2~3

Geothermal 2~10 1~8

Comparison of renewable energy price ( cents / kwh )

Energy type country

Water ( large-scale ) Canada、Brazil、China、USA、Russia

Water ( small-scale ) China、AUS、India、New Zealand、Canada

Wind Germany、USA、Spain、Denmark、Japan

Geothermal Iceland、France、Philippines、Indonesia、MEX

The development of renewable energy ( by country )

2007/1/17 27

Country Target

Australia 2010 : 9500 million kwh / year

Canada 3.5~15%

China 2020 : 60,000 ~ 120,000 million watt

Indian 2003~2012 : 10%

Israel 2007 : 2%，2016:5%

Japan 2010 : 2% ( not include water and Geothermal power )

Korea 2010 : 7% ( include water power )

Norway 2010 : 700 million kwh ( not include wind and Geothermal power )

Singapore 2012 : 35 million kwh ( PV )

Switzerland 2010 : 3500 million kwh / year

Thailand 2011 : 8%

USA 5~30% ( in 18 states ) ，California 2017 : 20%( 3 GW )

UK 2010 : 10%

Netherlands 2010 : 12%

Germany 2010 : 12.5%

Sweden 2010 : 60%

Finland 2010 : 35%

France 2010 : 21%

Italy 2010 : 25%

Spain 2010 : 29%

Austria 2010 : 78%

The usage of renewable energy ( by country )

2007/1/17 28

Power station -1

Stand-alone power station ( off grid ) BIPV ( on grid )

2007/1/17 29

A symbol of PV system application

Source ： Wal-Mart in McKinney, Texas

Wal-Mart BIPV system

Wal-Mart recognizes the potential value of energy efficiency with RMI's help.

2007/1/17 30

photon kinetic potential

Wind SUN H2O

electrochemistry

PV

electricity

Fuel generator

DC to AC

Inverter

Hybrid power station

Power station -2

2007/1/17 31

tens of millions

useful

powerful

mobile demand

Shipments of

Mobile phone is ~ 900kk

Mp3 player is ~ 100kk

DSC is ~ 80kk

NB is ~ 60kk

Car is ~ 55kk

in 2006

beautiful

valuable

personal

2007/1/17 32

flexible

Source：HEMVAN Source：MSI ，PIDA，2006/11

portable

light- weight

Handset-1

efficient

beautiful

2007/1/17 33

iPod solar charger

Source ：Soldius

Mobile phone solar charger

Source ：Solio，iSun

Handset-2

2007/1/17 34

Beyond the presentation ,

The promotion of PEPSI

” Exclusive music. We got it. You want it. ”

2007/1/17 35

The acceptable price is …

$ 139, 1.5 kg, 6.3 Watts, 16.6 V, 0.325 A $89, 115g, 6.58V, 320mA, Charging time:2-4 hrs

$99.95, 156g, 4~12V, 0~1A,

Internal battery: 3.6V, 1600mAh Lithium Ion

Soltronix AM/FM headphone radio

$54.45, An internal antenna and bass boost button ensures excellent sound quality.

2007/1/17 36

Toyota Prius Hybrid Rooftop-mounted

flexible (conformal) photovoltaic (PV) panels

Source : Solatec

Vehicle-1

Source : Mazda , SAAB

2007/1/17 37

solar powered airplane and boat

Source : sunseeker，transatlantic21

Vehicle-2

Taiwan

World NO.5

2007/1/17 38

2006-11-15 瑞士太陽能船挑戰橫越大西洋的壯舉

「Sun21」，太陽船21號計劃於今年十二月起程，將是全球首艘完成穿越大西洋的太陽能動力船。 「Sun21」雙體帆船主要引用太陽能動力科技航行全程 (見下圖)，計劃從西班牙南部的塞維爾城 (Sevilla)啟航，經佛得角群島 (Cape verde islands)，美國的佛羅里達，預定2007年春天到達美東的紐約，總航程約7000海哩。瑞士的Transatlantic21協會( www.transatlantic21.ch ) 是此項創紀錄航行計劃的主持單位。 Sun21太陽能船 圖片來源：www.transatlantic21.ch

委託瑞士專業的太陽能船造船公司MW-Line SA建造的雙體帆船屬型號Aquabus C60 catamarans ，由雙座人造纖維材料製成的船身軀體、鋁材支架及木製船頂蓋組合而成，船身長14公尺，船寬6.6公尺，船重量約12公噸， 動力設備置有13×6.5平方公尺面積，10000瓦特電壓的太陽能電池模板，船速約每小時6 knot (12 km/h)，可容納5至6人遠程航行，短程載客可達20人。

傳統以汽油為動力的船隻不僅耗油、馬達效率低且不合乎環保，相較下以太陽能光電電池發動的電動馬達效率可達80%至90%，耗損低且環保，雖然目前造船成本仍居高不下，約90萬美金，但以太陽能動力發電造船將是未來重要的替代能源科技之一。

http://www.itri.de/index.php?rubrik=archive&artikel=738&PHPSESSID=ed7f30db51725deac0003e91c180d882

2007/1/17 39

Vehicle-3

Bluebird solar powered rickshaw

Source : Bluebird

2007/1/17 40

Taxi in Bangkok , Thailand

— A cool car / toy .

Beyond the presentation ,

2007/1/17 41

Bus Stop

Source : Carmanah，PIDA

Vehicle-4

2007/1/17 42

Streetlamp in Bangkok , Thailand

— The perfect integration between lighting and sculpturing.

Beyond the presentation ,

Taiwan

> 30kk

2007/1/17 43

housing demand

Source：ZEDfactory，EERE

Source :宮崎の森林・林業

10kw (~100 m2) PV

= 19,500 m2 forest

Source : NEDO 1:200

2007/1/17 44

ZED Environmental strategy

Source：ZEDfactory，2006/10

housing -1

2007/1/17 45

ZED current price list of Components and Packages

product specification Price(￡)

Components Mono-crystaline

PV Panel

80W(540mm x 1200mm) 239

180W(800mm x 1600mm) 539

Grid-Tie solar

inverter

1500 W 449

Solar Thermal

array

18 x 58mm tubes 249

Ashwell Green-

Tec Pellet boiler

4-15 kW Thermal 3,000

Packages Solar Electric PV

Package 9 x 180W Mono-crystaline PV

panels or 20 x 80W Mono-crystaline PV panels and 1 x Grid-Tie solar inverter

5,000

Solar Thermal

Package 2 x 18 tube array, 300 litre twin

coil tank,solar controller, expansion tank and pump station

2,250

Zero Carbon Hot

Water Package Solar Thermal Package above

and Ashwell Green-Tec Pellet Boiler

5,000

housing -2

Source：ZEDfactory，2006/10

2007/1/17 46

housing -3

Source ： Wal-Mart in McKinney, Texas

Biomass and Wind ( windmill ) usage in Wal-Mart ( RMI tech. )

2007/1/17 47

housing -4 Bei Tou branch ( Ecological Conservation ) ,

Taipei Public Library

2007/1/17 48

The future Tech of AP-1

1. library flooring

2. walking flooring

3. wall paper

4. Projection screen …………

LED + PV Projector+ PV

Source：PIDA

2007/1/17 49

PV system

in space

Source：NASA

The future Tech of AP-2

2007/1/17 50

• 提昇國際競爭力 朝垂直整合前進

• Enhance competitiveness through vertical integration

• 提早進入待(未)開發市場

• Access to under developed market

• 藉由技術整合來擴大市場規模

• Enlarge market size through technical integration

• 提高PV的附加價值 尋找利基市場

• Raise additional value of PV and find the niche position

• 以「非環保」訴求來推銷PV產品

• Promote PV through ” Non – Environmental Issue”

Conclusion

2007/1/17 51

Thank you