2006/05/15 Thanh NGO-DUC Page 1 Lab meeting Contents MM5-MSE (MM5 - Mainland South East Asia) 72-hour forecast –MM5 –Couple to TRIP GSWP2 storage GRACE.

2006/05/15

Thanh NGO-DUC Page 1

Lab meeting Contents

• MM5-MSE (MM5 - Mainland South East Asia) 72-hour forecast – MM5

– Couple to TRIP

• GSWP2 storage

• GRACE paper submitted to WWR in Feb. 2006: major revision

2006/05/15

Thanh NGO-DUC Page 2

Lab meeting MM5-MSA

MM5NOAH LSM

Real-time data forecast fields

TRIPor TRIP with reservoirs

Runoff+drainage

flood forecast2 domains: D01 ~ 72 km,D02 ~ 24 km

http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~thanh/MM5/

• run once per day, at 3a.m.• download boundary data from NCEP: ~35 minutes • running time for 72-h forecast: ~ 30 minutes (shui, 1 processor)• available online

2006/05/15

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Lab meeting MM5-MSA

From satellite on May 13rd

MM5, 72h from 12h GMT May 14thChanchu storm

2006/05/15

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Lab meeting MM5-MSA

• Next steps: couple MM5-MSA with TRIP- Flow velocity: actually 0.5 m/s in TRIP, maybe good enough for

modeling at monthly timescale. But to do flood forecast, more realistic representation of flow velocity should be taken into account ! ???

- Use the routing map from Hydro1k

Surface runoff underground runoff

2006/05/15

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Lab meeting MM5-MSA

How to simulate river flow velocity?(Schulze et al., Advances in Geosciences, 2005; Oki et al., Hydrological Sciences, 2001)

• Manning equation:

2/13/21 SRnv n: river bed roughnessR: hydraulic radiusS: river slope

WD

WDR

2

Assuming river bed is shaped as a rectangle

D: river depthW: river width

Allen et al., Water Resources Bulletin, 1994

341.0

557.0

349.0

71.2

b

b

QD

QW

Qb: bankfull discharge

2006/05/15

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Lab meeting GSWP2 – land water storage

• The second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP-2): compare and evaluate 10-year simulations by 13 LSMs

• Simulations are in “offline mode” at a 1°×1° resolution, spanning the years 1986-1995.

GSWP2 outputs

TRIP

land water storage

SSTTopex-Poseidon

Ocean heat

ocean variability

analyze relationships?

2006/05/15

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Lab meeting GSWP2 – land water storage

ORCHIDEE – Thermosteric sea level (Ngo-Duc et al., GRL, 2005)

Decadal scale

? Validate? Interannual scale

2006/05/15

Thanh NGO-DUC Page 8

Lab meeting GSWP2 – land water storage

Thank you for your attention