Multinational Intelligence Can CENTCOM Lead the Way? Reflections on OSINT & the Coalition Robert David STEELE Vivas Presentation to the Coalition Coordination Center 27 January 2006 A copy of these slides are at the Modern Information Operations Portal Page at www.oss.net .
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Multinational IntelligenceCan CENTCOM Lead the Way?
Reflections on OSINT & the Coalition
Robert David STEELE VivasPresentation to the Coalition Coordination Center
27 January 2006
A copy of these slides are at the Modern Information Operations Portal Page at www.oss.net.
About the Speaker• 30 years overseas• USMC 0302/0202/9676• 6 clandestine tours• Founder USMC Intel Ctr• OSINT pioneer since 1988• Helped 19 governments by
invitation in home country • Trained 7,500 from 40 countries
since 1992• #1 Amazon non-fiction reviewer• Author 3 core books on IO/Intel• Believe we all need/can use a
Multinational Information Operations Center (MIOC) with two-way reach-back
2000
2002
2006
Editor2004
Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding
50% Less CostlyM
ore
Sat
isfy
ing
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT
ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS
OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
5% of cost 80% of value
95% of cost 20% of value
This is a common-sense contrast we can exploit.
Open Source Data
Open Source Information
Open Source Intelligence
Validated Open Source Intelligence
Only the in-house analyst can do this.
Definitions
OSINT is not something the classified intelligence community should control—it must be equally responsive to diplomats, policymakers, operators, and logisticians—as well as all-source intelligence analysts.
“…nothing more than a collection of news clippings”.
Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Hyper-Arid
Sub-Humid
Arid
Semi-Arid
Water Pollution
1
2
34
5
6
Local Threats to Global Survival
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
Complex Emergencies32 Countries
Refugees/Displaced66 Countries
Food Security33 Countries
Child Soldiers41 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**
Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**
Corruption Common80 Countries
Censorship Very High62 Countries
OSINT Matters I
• "By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country--the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations."
Clausewitz, On War, 1832
Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know.
What’s on the other side of the hill?
®
All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing what was at the other side of the hill”.
Duke of Wellington quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884)
OSINT Matters II
®
Strategic Planning
Operational Coordination
Tactical Employment
Acquisition Design
• History
• Context
• Current Awareness
• Key Personalities/Motivators
• Imagery & Image Maps
• Translation Support
• Strategic Generalizations
• Critical Technologies
OSINT Matters III
This is what got General Schoomaker’s attention.
Baseball AnalogyHarnessing the Power of the Crowd
OSINT
HUMINT
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
Seven Views of RealityNot listening, and not sharing, costs us.
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &Media
Religions& Clans
New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Sources
• All information, all languages, all the time• Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy• 185 languages, 33 of them “core”• 12 relevant dialects of Arabic• Must follow television, radio, audio, street• 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC• Cannot be made sense of by single individual• We must find a multinational integrated approach
TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
A Revolution is UnderwayPeer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible
Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved ByChanging When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention
– More Peacekeeping
– More Education
– More Long-Term Aid
– Less Corruption
– Less Censorship
We have a sacred duty.
Between Google and Wikis, World Brain is Possible
OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM
# = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global
You Are Here...
12
3
Far Future
Near Future
Present
Historical Memory
OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM
Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets
You Are Here...
12
3
Gaming Future ROIs
Foreign Viewpoints
Reality
Public Memory
Secrecy rules
Elites rules
Act on 2% of the info.
People complacent
Short-term view
Unilateral militarism
Immoral capitalism
Big stick works BUT
Long-term cost not visible to public
$1B/Yr 3
$111B/Yr 10
Pay with information
Pay with cash & information
DoD
$250M/Yr 1
$500M/Yr 2
$1B/Yr 3
$1B is half what USDI was prepared to authorize at FOC
for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine Foreign Language Conversion in a
coherent manner that creates added value for each contract, a compelling
sales point and a barrier to entry for our competitors who miss the big picture.
1PB/Yr 15 PB/Yr 2
10 PB/Yr 3
Goal is all UN information including field reports in real time, beginning
with complex PKI of DoD interest and networking of all NGO eyes & ears on the ground.
USG
10X DoD
with 1-3 year
lag time.
U.S. Based Corporations
OMB pursuing “common solutions” approach. We give them our model, funded by DoD, for all of USG with NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as the ultimate beneficiary. The language capability can help us capture 911 now.
Most of them don’t get it yet—stuck in IT or KM, internally focused. Spending $15B a year now on data mining and related IT-driven ideas.
Two tracks: one with our team members and their best big clients, the other commoditizing for small businesses.
Education Everywhere All Levels
Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open research information including all student dissertationsto OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind “by name” into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus onrestoring education and research as the engines for wealthproduction through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, wefocus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation.
Law Enforcement Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally in all countries, we give them OSIS-X free to obtain privacy OK & protection world-wide. GWOT data benefits.
United NationsAll NGOs, World Bank, IMF
Journalists We get their organizations to pay for access, but we find a way to recruit them as individuals to meet our client needs on the side.
Labor Unions & ReligionsCitizens & Advocacy Groups
It’s no longer about the collection of information or the communication of information. The next big thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. We do this with an intelligent network and a focus on semantic web/synthetic information architecture technology, and the empowerment of individuals so that they can create and share knowledge in real time without organizational, legal, security, cultural, or language impediments.
The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the “I” side of the IT equation. SANITIZED
General Al Gray: “Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant.Peter Drucker (paraphrase): We’ve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT.
Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad
Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping
DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council
SECRET BIG DATA
• NSA-NGA
• SAIC
• HARRIS
• NG-MS
NOT SECRET BIG DATA
• UN, Red Cross, NGOs…
• NASA , public geospatial
• Factiva
• LEXIS-NEXIS
SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA
• Intelink
• ARDA
• ITIC
• JHU/APL
NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA
• CISCO
• Google/Libraries
• Amazon Inside the Book
• Napster Plus
Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X)
SIPRNET
Paradigm Shift
• Dots don’t know they are secret until some human decides this.
• Dots gain value from swarming, lose value within compartmentation.