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Page 1: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM©20091www.pjm.com

Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) Overview

PJM Member Training Dept. Generation 101

Page 2: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM©20092www.pjm.com

Objectives

Student will identify the components and

uses of the pricing mechanism used by the

PJM energy market.

Student will illustrate the associations

between market sellers, market buyers and

Locational Marginal Pricing.

Student will explain the calculation of LMP

through the use of a 5 bus model diagram.

Page 3: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM©20093www.pjm.com

Agenda

Locational Marginal Pricing - LMP

Definition of LMP

5-bus Example

LMP Verification & Posting process

LMP Statistics

Page 4: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

What is LMP?

www.pjm.com

Pricing method PJM uses to:

price energy purchases and sales in PJM Market

price transmission congestion costs to move energy within PJM RTO

Physical, flow-based pricing system:

how energy actually flows, NOT contract paths

4 10/22/2009

Page 5: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

LMP Analogy

LMP is analogous to a taxi ride for MWs!Light traffic = Consistent, predictable fare

www.pjm.com 5 10/22/2009

Page 6: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

LMP Analogy

LMP is analogous to a taxi ride for MWs!Heavy traffic = Higher fare

www.pjm.com 6 10/22/2009

Page 7: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

How is LMP Used?

www.pjm.com

Generators get paid at generation bus LMP

Loads pay at load bus LMP

Typically at zone LMP

Option exists for nodal LMP

Transactions pay differential in source and sink LMP

Congestion

Losses

7 10/22/2009

Page 8: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Locational Marginal Price

www.pjm.com

System

Energy

Price

Transmission

Congestion

Cost

Cost of

Marginal

Losses

Cost to serve the next MW of load at a specific location,

using the lowest production cost of all available generation,

while observing all transmission limits

8 10/22/2009

Page 9: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Locational Marginal Price

www.pjm.com 9

System

Energy

Price

Transmission

Congestion

Cost

Cost of

Marginal

Losses

System Energy Price

Represents optimal dispatch ignoring congestion and losses

Same price for every bus in PJM

Used to price Spot Market Interchange

Spot Market buyer pays system energy price

Spot Market seller is paid system energy price

Calculated both in day ahead and real time

10/22/2009

Page 10: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Locational Marginal Price

www.pjm.com

System

Energy

Price

Transmission

Congestion

Cost

Cost of

Marginal

Losses

Congestion Price

Represents price of congestion for binding constraints

Calculated using cost of marginal units controlling constraints and sensitivity factors on each bus

No change in this calculation

Will be zero if no constraints

Will vary by location if system is constrained

Used to price explicit and implicit congestion (Locational Net Congestion Bill)

Load pays Congestion Price

Generation is paid Congestion Price

Congestion revenues allocated as hourly credits to FTR holders

Calculated both in day ahead and real time

10 10/22/2009

Page 11: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Locational Marginal Price

www.pjm.com

System

Energy

Price

Transmission

Congestion

Cost

Cost of

Marginal

Losses

Loss Price

Represents price of marginal losses

Calculated using penalty factors as previously described

Will vary by location

Used to price explicit and implicit losses (Locational Net Loss Bill)

Load pays the Loss Price

Generation is paid the Loss Price

Loss revenues are allocated based on load + exports ratio share

Calculated both in day-ahead and real-time

11 10/22/2009

Page 12: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Transmission Losses

Real Power (MW) Losses

– Power flow converted to heat in transmission equipment

– Heat produced by current (I) flowing through resistance (R)

– Losses equal to I2R

– Heat loss sets the “thermal rating” of equipment

www.pjm.com 12 10/22/2009

Page 13: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Dispatch Rate

www.pjm.com

Definition: The Dispatch Rate is expressed in dollars per

MWh, calculated and transmitted to each generator to direct

the output level of all generation resources dispatched by

PJM based on the incremental offer data which was

previously received from the Generators.

13 10/22/2009

Page 14: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Dispatch Rate

www.pjm.com

The Dispatch Rate is determined by the PJM economic

dispatch solution as calculated by PJM’s Unit Dispatch

System (UDS)

Offer Price

MW

200150100500

$35

$30

$25

$20

Economic Basepoint

The Economic Basepoint is the MW value sent to the generating unit

that indicates to what level the unit should be loaded based on the

economic dispatch solution and the units incremental price curve

Dispatch Rate = $25

14 10/22/2009

Page 15: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Penalty Factors Effect on Dispatch

The Incremental Loss for bus i is used to calculate a factor that can be used to include the effect of losses in the dispatch

This factor is called the Loss Penalty Factor, or Penalty Factor

www.pjm.com

i

L

i

P

PPf

1

1

The Penalty Factors adjust the incremental cost of each generator

so as to include the effects of losses

Penalty factors applied to each and every location

Including generation, load, virtual transaction

Change in Losses

Change in Unit’s MW Output

15 10/22/2009

Page 16: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Penalty Factors Effect on Dispatch

If an increase in generation results in an increase in system losses then:

Penalty factor is greater than 1

Units offer curve is adjusted higher

Unit offer curve is multiplied by penalty factor

Unit looks less attractive to dispatch

www.pjm.com

0.1

1

1

i

L

i

P

PPf

10

i

L

P

P

16 10/22/2009

Page 17: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Penalty Factors Effect on Dispatch

If an increase in generation results in a decrease in system losses then:

Penalty factor is less than 1

Units offer curve is adjusted lower

Unit offer curve is multiplied by penalty factor

Unit looks more attractive to dispatch

Total LMP would still at least equal unit’s original offer

www.pjm.com

10

i

L

P

P 0.1

1

1

i

L

i

P

PPf

17 10/22/2009

Page 18: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Penalty Factors Effect on Dispatch - Example # 1

Generating Unit # 1 Generating Unit # 2

Offer Price = $ 10.00 ----- 200 MW

$ 20.00 ----- 300 MW

$ 30.00 ----- 400 MW

$ 40.00 ----- 500 MW

Offer Price = $ 10.00 ----- 200 MW

$ 20.00 ----- 300 MW

$ 30.00 ----- 400 MW

$ 40.00 ----- 500 MW

Generating 300 MW Generating 300 MW

Penalty Factor = 1.00

$20 * 1.00 = $20.00 (Unit

offer price stays the same)

Penalty Factor = .97

$20 * 0.97 = $19.60

(Unit offer price adjusted lower)www.pjm.com

Page 19: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Penalty Factors Effect on Dispatch - Example # 2

Generating Unit # 1 Generating Unit # 2

Offer Price = $ 10.00 ----- 200 MW

$ 20.00 ----- 300 MW

$ 30.00 ----- 400 MW

$ 40.00 ----- 500 MW

$ 50.00 ----- 600 MW

Offer Price = $ 10.00 ----- 200 MW

$ 20.00 ----- 300 MW

$ 30.00 ----- 400 MW

$ 40.00 ----- 500 MW

$ 50.00 ----- 600 MW

Generating 500 MW Generating 500 MW

Penalty Factor = 1.05

$40 * 1.05 = $42.00

(Unit offer price adjusted higher)

Penalty Factor = 1.00

$40 * 1.00 = $40.00

(Unit offer price stays the same)www.pjm.com

Page 20: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

LMP & Economic Dispatch

www.pjm.com

Dispatch Rate DirectiveWhere PJM wants

The units to be

loaded economically

LMP Based on actual

loading of each unitResult

If unit’s don’t move to follow dispatch rate, LMP will not change!

20 10/22/2009

Page 21: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

LMP Model

Siemens

State

Estimator

Real-Time

Data

(EMS) LPA

Unit

Dispatch

System (UDS)

LMP’s for

all locations

Dispatcher

InputBinding Transmission

Constraints

Energy Demand

Generator MW

System Topology

LPA

Preprocessor

Generator Offers

Flexible Generating

Units & Offers

Dispatch Rates

Dispatchable Transactions

*

*

* Manual Dispatcher Input LPA = Locational Pricing Algorithm

www.pjm.com

Page 22: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

LMP Execution Steps

www.pjm.com

Determine current system conditions energy demand generator MW values system topology

Process generator offers & dispatch rates to determine flexible generators

Collect current system constraint data

Execute Locational Price Algorithm

22 10/22/2009

Page 23: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

High & Low LMPs

www.pjm.com

Highest LMP at immediate receiving end of constraint

Lowest LMP at immediate sending end of constraint

Two marginal units control one constraint; three marginal units two constraints, etc...

Sending End Receiving End

Thermal Limit

23 10/22/2009

Page 24: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM©200924www.pjm.com

Agenda

Locational Marginal Pricing - LMP

Definition of LMP

5-bus Example

LMP Verification and Posting process

LMP Statistics

Page 25: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

System

Overview

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

Sundance

SolitudeAlta

Park City

Brighton

Legend

BusLoad

Generators

Transmission

Line

25

XCD = 2.97%

XED = 2.97%

XAB = 2.81%

XEA = 0.64%

Impedances as shown –

R = 0 for all lines

XBC = 1.08%

XAD = 3.04%

Example # 1 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

25www.pjm.com 10/22/2009

Page 26: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 1 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

SolitudeAlta

Park City

Brighton

Sundance

Loads = 223 MW each

Load =

223 MW

Unconstrained System

Loads = 669

26 10/22/2009

Page 27: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

27www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

SolitudeAlta

Park City

Brighton

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

Generator Offers

223 MW 223 MW

223 MW

Sundance

Example # 1 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

10/22/2009

Page 28: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 1 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

SolitudeAlta

Park City

Brighton

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

Sundance

223 MW 223 MW

223 MW

600 MW

69 MW

Dispatch & Energy Flow

229

147

153

293 70

371

Total Load 669

28 10/22/2009

Page 29: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 1 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

SolitudeAlta

Park City

Brighton

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

Sundance

223 MW 223 MW

223 MW

600 MW69

MW

229

147

153

293 70

371

LMPs - No Loss Component Included

$14

$14$14

$14

$14

Alta - Marginal Unit

Alta

29 10/22/2009

Page 30: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 1 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW

Thermal Limit

Solitude

Alta

Park City

Brighton

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh

100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

Sundance

223 MW 223 MW

223 MW

600 MW

86 M

W

229

147

153

293 70

371

LMP = $13.83PF = 1.0624

LMPs - Loss Component Included

LMP = $14.00PF = 1.0492

LMP = $14.61PF = 1.0053

LMP = $14.69PF = 1.00

LMP = $14.33PF = 1.0247

Area Load = 669

Area Losses = 17 MW

Area Generation = 686

Brighton - 600 MW

Alta - 86 MW

Marginal Unit

Reference Bus30 10/22/2009

Page 31: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 1 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

Unit Penalty Factor

(PF)

Total

LMP

Solitude 1.00 14.69

Park City 1.0053 $14.61

Sundance 1.0247 $14.33

Alta 1.0492 $14.00

Brighton 1.0624 $13.83

www.pjm.com

Marginal Unit

Reference Bus

A higher PF results in a

lower LMP (LMP gets

lower

“Disincentive” to

generation since

increased generation

contributes to losses

31 10/22/2009

Page 32: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 1 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

Unit Offer Price Adjusted Offer Total LMP

Alta $14.00 $14.689 $14.00

Brighton $10.00 $10.624 $13.83

Park City $15.00 $15.738 $14.61*Unit Not Running

Solitude $30.00 $30.00 $14.69*Unit Not Running

Sundance $40.00 $40.988 $14.33*Unit Not Running

www.pjm.com

Adjusted Offer =

Offer X Penalty Factor

Higher PF = Offer

Marginal Unit

Reference Bus32 10/22/2009

Page 33: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 2 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

SolitudeAlta

Park City

Brighton

Sundance

Constrained System

Loads = 900

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

Loads = 300 MW

Load = 300 MW

33 10/22/2009

Page 34: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 2 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

SolitudeAlta

Park City

Brighton

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

300 MW 300 MW

300 MW

Dispatched

at 600 MW

Dispatched

100 MW

Dispatched

at 110 MW

Dispatch Solution Ignoring Thermal Limit

Dispatched

90 MW

Total Dispatched

900 MW

253

174

216

384 84

348

Sundance

34 10/22/2009

Page 35: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

SolitudeAlta

Park City

Brighton

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

Sundance

300 MW 300 MW

300 MW

Actual Dispatched Generation

Dispatched

at 510 MW

Dispatched

at 180 MW

Dispatched

at 100 MW

Dispatched

at 110 MW Total Dispatched

900 MW

Example # 2 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

35 10/22/2009

Page 36: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

SolitudeAlta

Park City

Brighton

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

Sundance

300 MW 300 MW

300 MW

510 MW11

0 M

W

230

178

102

309 4

279

Energy Flow

100

MW

Example # 2 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

195 MW

225

180

101

280

36 10/22/2009

Page 37: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

www.pjm.com

E

A

B C

D230 MW Thermal Limit

Solitude

Alta

Park City

Brighton

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

Sundance

300 MW 300 MW

300 MW

510 MW11

0 M

W

230

178

102

309 304

279

$10.00

$30.00$26.40

$17.00

$40.00

100

MW

Example # 2 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

LMPs - No Loss Component Included

195 MW

225

280

10118

0

37

Brighton & Solitude - Marginal Generators

10/22/2009

Page 38: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 2 - 5 Bus Transmission Grid

www.pjm.com

279

E

A

B C

D

Alta

Park City

Brighton

600 MW

$10/MWh

110 MW

$14/MWh

100 MW

$15/MWh

520 MW

$30/MWh

200 MW

$40/MWh

Sundance

300 MW 300 MW

300 MW

510 MW

110

MW

230

178

102

309 304

LMP = $10.00PF = 1.0555

LMPs - Loss Component Included

LMP = $16.76PF = 1.0450 LMP = $26.61

PF = 1.0024

LMP = $30.00PF = 1.00

LMP = $39.35PF = 1.0162

Area Load = 900

Area Losses = 15 MW

Area Generation = 915

Brighton - 510 MW

Alta - 110 MW

Park City - 100 MW

Solitude - 195

100

MW

195 MW

225

280

180

Marginal Unit

Reference Bus

Solitude

38 10/22/2009

Page 39: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

LMP & Sensitivity Factors

www.pjm.com

Solitude & Brighton supply the next increment of load on the system

(Marginal generators)

Attempt to serve an additional increment of load (1 MW)

Resulting Sensitivity Factors determine LMP

Least Cost Security Constrained Dispatch Algorithm

Calculates least expensive way to serve load while respecting

transmission limit

Power flow analysis calculates Sensitivity Factors

39 10/22/2009

Page 40: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Sensitivity Factors

www.pjm.com

Sensitivity Factors calculate the price to deliver power to

every location in PJM in the least expensive way

Based on System impedance

“Big pipe” = lower impedance = more power flow

“Garden hose” = high impedance = less power flow

Based on impact of marginal generators on transmission

constraint and generator price

40 10/22/2009

Page 41: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

www.pjm.com

How would 1 MW of energy be supplied to each bus from the two

“marginal” units without violating the transmission constraint?

Example # 2 - LMP Calculations

The sensitivity factors reflect the amount of cost effective generation required to supply 1 MW of load at each bus, without increasing the flow on the contingency

LMP Calculations - No Loss Component

Sensitivity Factors

(for 1 MWh of Load Supplied from)

Bus Brighton

@ $10/MWh

Solitude

@ $30/MWh

Calculation(MWh) (Brighton Unit Price) +

(MWh) (Solitude Unit Price) +LMP

A 0.65 MWh 0.35 MWh 0.65 ($10) + 0.35 ($30) $17.00

B 0.18 MWh 0.82 MWh 0.18 ($10) + 0.82 ($30) $26.40

C 0.00 MWh 1.00 MWh 0.00 ($10) + .1.00 ($30) $30.00

D -0.50 MWh 1.50 MWh -0.50 ($10) + 1.50 ($30) $40.00

E 1.00 MWh -0.00 MWh 1.00 ($10) + 0.00 ($30) $10.00

41 10/22/2009

Page 42: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 2 - LMP Calculations

System Energy Price = LMP at the Reference Bus (where Congestion & Losses = 0)

Reference or “Slack” Bus is the “electrical load center” of the system

Losses are calculated using the System Energy Price & the Penalty Factor (Pf)

www.pjm.com

Solitude

520 MW

$30/MWh

Energy LMP = $ 30.00

Congestion LMP = $0.00

Losses LMP = $ 0.00

Total LMP = $30.00

PF = 1.00

System

Energy

Price

1Pf

1*

42 10/22/2009

Page 43: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Example # 2 - Losses Calculation

Bus Penalty

Factor

Calculation Total Losses

A 1.0450 $-1.29

B 1.0024 $-0.07

C 1.00 $0.00

D 1.0162 $-0.48

E 1.0555 $-1.58

www.pjm.com

System

Energy

Price

1Pf

1*

1

1.0450- 130.00 *

1

1.0024- 130.00 *

1

1.00- 130.00 *

1

1.0162- 130.00 *

1

1.0555- 130.00 *

43 10/22/2009

Page 44: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

www.pjm.com

Example # 2 - LMP Calculations

Bus System Energy

Price

Congestion Losses

Calculation

(Using Sensitivity Factors for 1 MW of Load

Supplied From Marginal Generators:

Brighton & Solitude)

LMP

A $30.00 $ -11.95 $ -1.29 0.65 ($10) + 0.342 ($30) $16.76

B $30.00 $ -3.32 $ -0.07 0.171 ($10) + 0.83 ($30) $26.61

C $30.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 0.00 ($10) + 1.00 ($30) $30.00

D $30.00 $ 9.82 $ -0.48 -0.535 ($10) + 1.45 ($30) $39.35

E $30.00 $ -18.42 $ -1.58 1.00 ($10) + -0.00 ($30) $10.00

LMP Calculations - Loss Component Included

How would 1 MW of energy be supplied to each bus from the two

“marginal” units without violating the transmission constraint?

3 LMP Components

Page 45: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM©200945www.pjm.com

Agenda

Locational Marginal Pricing - LMP

Definition of LMP

5-bus Example

LMP Verification & Posting process

LMP Statistics

Page 46: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Calculated & posted on PJM website at 5-minute intervals

Based on actual operating conditions, as described by State Estimator

Integrated at end of each hour (five-minute real-time LMPs) & posted on PJM website

Market settlements performed based on hourly integrated LMPs (after LMP Verification Process!!!)

Real-Time LMPs

www.pjm.com 46 10/22/2009

Page 47: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Operational Data Page

www.pjm.com

http://www.pjm.com/pub/account/lmpgen/lmppost.html

47 10/22/2009

Page 48: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Operational Data Page

www.pjm.com

Zonal LMPs are Load-weighted LMPs

Correspond to PJM Transmission zones

Hub LMPs use equal weighting at each bus included in the Hub

Western Hub most popular

Interface LMPs are dynamically weighted based on flow on

each tie-line of the interface

More accurately reflects physical flow

Aggregate LMPs can be generation or load weighted

Can be requested by LSE or Generation owner

Detailed definitions of Zones, Hubs, Interfaces, and Aggregates can be

found at pjm.com by accessing > Markets > Energy > LMP Model

48 10/22/2009

Page 49: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

Reviews following logs: Dispatcher logs Program error logs LMP results for each interval

Recalculates or replaces LMPs, as required

Notifies Market Settlements LMPs are verified & ready to use in accounting

Posts verified hourly LMPs for previous operating day on PJM website

Daily LMP Verification Process

www.pjm.com 49 10/22/2009

Page 50: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

LMP Summary

www.pjm.com

LMP is the pricing mechanism for wholesale power in the

PJM energy market

LMPs components include System Energy Price,

Congestion (if it exists) and Losses (when applicable)

Only units following PJM dispatch instructions can set LMP

Although all units get paid LMP for their MW output

Real-time LMPs are posted on the PJM home page and on

internet tools such as eDATA

Verified hourly integrated LMPs are used for Market Settlements

50 10/22/2009

Page 51: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM©200951www.pjm.com

Questions?

Page 52: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM©200952www.pjm.com

PJM Customer Relations

Telephone: (610) 666-8980

Toll Free Telephone: 866-400-8980

Fax: (610) 666-4379

World wide web: www.pjm.com

email: http://www.pjm.com/about-pjm/who-we-are/contact-us.aspx

Subscribe to PJM e-mail lists at:

http://www.pjm.com/about-pjm/newsroom/newsletter-notices.aspx

Contact Information

Page 53: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM©200953www.pjm.com

Agenda

Locational Marginal Pricing - LMP

Definition of LMP

5-bus Example

LMP Verification & Posting process

LMP Statistics

Page 54: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Rea

l-tim

e LM

P ($

/MW

h)

Dem

and

(MW

)

Hour ending (EPT)

08-Aug-07 PJM load

09-Jun-08 PJM load

08-Aug-07 PJM average real-time LMP

09-Jun-08 PJM average real-time LMP

08-Aug-07 1600 EPT - PJM 139,428 MW

09-Jun-08 1700 EPT - PJM 130,100 MW

PJM summer peak-load comparison:

Monday, June 9, 2008, and Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Summer Peak Load Comparison

54www.pjm.com 10/22/2009

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www.pjm.com

Day-Ahead Real-Time

Simple Average

LMP

$66.12 $66.40

Load-Weighted

Average LMP

$70.25 $71.13

2008 LMP Update

(Dollars MWH)

Page 56: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM real-time, simple average LMP components (Dollars per MWh):

Calendar years 2006 to 2008

www.pjm.com

2006 $49.27 $47.19 $2.08 $0.00

2007 $57.58 $56.56 $1.00 $0.02

2008 $66.40 $66.29 $0.06 $0.04

Loss

ComponentReal-Time LMP

Energy

Component

Congestion

Component

2006-2008 Real-time Simple Average LMP Components

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$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

LMP

($/M

Wh)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

PJM real-time, monthly, load-weighted, average LMP: Calendar years 2004 to 2008

www.pjm.com

2004-2008 Real-time Monthly Load-Weighted Average LMP

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www.pjm.com 58

Fuel-Cost Adjusted LMP

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PJM real-time, simple average LMP

(Dollars per MWh): Calendar years 1998 to 2008

www.pjm.com 59

Average Median

Standard

Deviation Average Median

Standard

Deviation

1998 $21.72 $16.60 $31.45 NA NA NA

1999 $28.32 $17.88 $72.42 30.4% 7.7% 130.3%

2000 $28.14 $19.11 $25.69 (0.6%) 6.9% (64.5%)

2001 $32.38 $22.98 $45.03 15.1% 20.3% 75.3%

2002 $28.30 $21.08 $22.41 (12.6%) (8.3%) (50.2%)

2003 $38.28 $30.79 $24.71 35.3% 46.1% 10.3%

2004 $42.40 $38.30 $21.12 10.8% 24.4% (14.5%)

2005 $58.08 $47.18 $35.91 37.0% 23.2% 70.0%

2006 $49.27 $41.45 $32.71 (15.2%) (12.1%) (8.9%)

2007 $57.58 $49.92 $34.60 16.9% 20.4% 5.8%

2008 $66.40 $55.53 $38.62 15.3% 11.2% 11.6%

Year-to-Year ChangeReal-Time LMP

1998-2008 PJM Real-time Simple Average LMP

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Page 60: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM real-time, annual, load-weighted, average LMP (Dollars per MWh):

Calendar years 1998 to 2008

www.pjm.com 60

Average Median

Standard

Deviation Average Median

Standard

Deviation

1998 $24.16 $17.60 $39.29 NA NA NA

1999 $34.07 $19.02 $91.49 41.0% 8.1% 132.9%

2000 $30.72 $20.51 $28.38 (9.8%) 7.8% (69.0%)

2001 $36.65 $25.08 $57.26 19.3% 22.3% 101.8%

2002 $31.60 $23.40 $26.75 (13.8%) (6.7%) (53.3%)

2003 $41.23 $34.96 $25.40 30.5% 49.4% (5.0%)

2004 $44.34 $40.16 $21.25 7.5% 14.9% (16.3%)

2005 $63.46 $52.93 $38.10 43.1% 31.8% 79.3%

2006 $53.35 $44.40 $37.81 (15.9%) (16.1%) (0.8%)

2007 $61.66 $54.66 $36.94 15.6% 23.1% (2.3%)

2008 $71.13 $59.54 $40.97 15.4% 8.9% 10.9%

Real-Time, Load-Weighted, Average LMP Year-to-Year Change

1998-2008 PJM Real-time Load Weighted Average LMP

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Page 61: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM day-ahead, simple average LMP (Dollars per MWh): Calendar years

2004 to 2008

www.pjm.com 61

Average Median

Standard

Deviation Average Median

Standard

Deviation

2004 $41.43 $40.36 $16.60 NA NA NA

2005 $57.89 $50.08 $30.04 39.7% 24.1% 81.0%

2006 $48.10 $44.21 $23.42 (16.9%) (11.7%) (22.0%)

2007 $54.67 $52.34 $23.99 13.7% 18.4% 2.4%

2008 $66.12 $58.93 $30.87 20.9% 12.6% 28.7%

Year-to-Year ChangeDay-Ahead LMP

2004-2008 PJM Day-ahead Simple Average LMP

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Page 62: 20050713-gen-101-lmp-overview

PJM day-ahead, load-weighted, average LMP (Dollars per MWh): Calendar

years 2004 to 2008

www.pjm.com 62

Average Median

Standard

Deviation Average Median

Standard

Deviation

2004 $42.87 $41.96 $16.32 NA NA NA

2005 $62.50 $54.74 $31.72 45.8% 30.5% 94.4%

2006 $51.33 $46.72 $26.45 (17.9%) (14.7%) (16.6%)

2007 $57.88 $55.91 $25.02 12.8% 19.7% (5.4%)

2008 $70.25 $62.91 $33.14 21.4% 12.5% 32.5%

Day-Ahead, Load-Weighted, Average LMP Year-to-Year Change

2004-2008 PJM Day-ahead Load-Weighted Average LMP

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