Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report. Metals Monthly wrap up PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Key Highlights • Flat and Long steel product in India continued with their price divergent trends in Dec 2013. Flat product prices corrected marginally by around 1% while Long products gained in range of 1% – 6% across different regions. • Global HRC prices have seen 0% ‐ 2% gain in different regions. China export HRC and European prices stood flat while US, CIS and China domestic HRC prices saw marginal gains. • Global Rebar prices gained across regions except CIS. It gained in Europe (+0.5%) and US (+3.6%) while fell in CIS (‐3.2%) region. Export rebar prices (+2.0%) in China saw improvement while it has fell in domestic market (‐1.1%) during the month. • Global iron ore prices took a pause on its 2 month rising trend with 58%/ 63.5% Fe grade price declining by 2.8%/ 1.1% during the month. Low grade discounts further increased to 12.1% during Dec 2013 from 10.8% earlier. Similar discounts were seen last only a year back. • NMDC has maintained its iron ore prices in Jan 2014 post Rs 200/tn hike taken in Dec 2013. • Domestic pellet prices continued to move up gaining Rs 300/tn to Rs 7400/tn in Dec 2013 • Scrap prices continued to increase across regions except China (down 1.6% mom). Scrap prices in Europe have reported highest gain followed by India. • Spot Coking coal prices were down by US$ 3.5/tn to US$ 133/tn. Thermal coal price have gained globally in the range of 1.5% ‐ 2.5% • Apparent steel consumption in EU for Nov 2013 stood at 13.0mn tonnes, up 9.2% yoy and down 2.6% mom. Apparent/ Real steel consumption in India for Dec 2013 saw growth of 4.6%/ 1.2% yoy to 6.4/ 5.5mn tonnes respectively • Global steel inventory excluding EU continued to decline with a 1% fall sequentially to 30.4mn tonnes. The fall was majorly led by falling Flat product inventories in China. • Iron ore inventory at port in China stands at 81.3mn tonnes, up 1.4% mom. • Base metal prices saw strong momentum during the month with Zinc leading the pack and Aluminium acting as a laggard. Prices of aluminium/ zinc/ lead/ copper increased by 3.1%/ 10.0%/ 6.6%/ 4.6% respectively. Base metal prices in Shanghai exchange also seen similar trend however with lower magnitude except in aluminium (‐1.2% mom). • SHFE – LME spreads decreased across metals in Dec 2013. This will increase the competitive pressures for players like Novelis in the Asian region. • Aluminium regional premiums have gained (due to rise in cancelled warrants by 12% mom) in Shanghai, US and Europe region while it stood flat in Japan. Regional premium for zinc reported mix trends with fall in Shanghai and gain in Singapore. Regional premium for Lead fell during the month. • Alumina prices gained marginally during the month. Alumina price as a % of LME stood flattish at 18.9% in Dec 2013. However they have seen a strong momentum in the start of the New Year. • Caustic soda price stood flat sequentially in Dec 2013. • All base metals have seen a fall in LME inventory with copper leading the pack. LME inventory of aluminium/ zinc/ lead/ copper decreased by 0.2%/ 3.0%/ 7.3%/ 13.5% respectively. Valuations FY14E (x) P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA JSW Steel 10.0 1.2 6.2 Tata Steel 9.8 1.0 6.6 SAIL 15.7 0.7 13.0 JSPL 12.1 1.1 9.6 Hindalco 9.3 0.6 7.8 Nalco 14.5 0.8 4.7 Hindustan Zinc 8.2 1.5 4.4 Sesa Sterlite 12.8 0.9 6.1 Regional Performance (rebased) 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 India Brazil Australia London Indices (rebased) 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 BSE Ssnsex BSE Metal Index Absolute Performance Change (table) 1M 3M 6M Aluminium 3.1 (2.1) 1.9 Zinc 10.0 9.1 12.7 Copper 4.6 1.2 9.6 Lead 6.6 4.7 7.4 HRC (1.1) (0.8) 3.4 TMT 3.4 2.9 10.4 Iron Ore (0.7) 2.7 15.4 Coking Coal (2.6) (10.4) 2.3 Thermal Coal 1.5 8.0 8.8 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Dhawal Doshi (+ 9122 6667 9769) [email protected]Dharmesh Shah (+ 9122 6667 9974) [email protected]
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Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.
Metals Monthly wrap up
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Key Highlights • Flat and Long steel product in India continued with their price divergent trends in Dec 2013. Flat product prices corrected marginally by around 1% while Long products gained in range of 1% – 6% across different regions.
• Global HRC prices have seen 0% ‐ 2% gain in different regions. China export HRC and European prices stood flat while US, CIS and China domestic HRC prices saw marginal gains.
• Global Rebar prices gained across regions except CIS. It gained in Europe (+0.5%) and US (+3.6%) while fell in CIS (‐3.2%) region. Export rebar prices (+2.0%) in China saw improvement while it has fell in domestic market (‐1.1%) during the month.
• Global iron ore prices took a pause on its 2 month rising trend with 58%/ 63.5% Fe grade price declining by 2.8%/ 1.1% during the month. Low grade discounts further increased to 12.1% during Dec 2013 from 10.8% earlier. Similar discounts were seen last only a year back.
• NMDC has maintained its iron ore prices in Jan 2014 post Rs 200/tn hike taken in Dec 2013.
• Domestic pellet prices continued to move up gaining Rs 300/tn to Rs 7400/tn in Dec 2013
• Scrap prices continued to increase across regions except China (down 1.6% mom). Scrap prices in Europe have reported highest gain followed by India.
• Spot Coking coal prices were down by US$ 3.5/tn to US$ 133/tn. Thermal coal price have gained globally in the range of 1.5% ‐ 2.5%
• Apparent steel consumption in EU for Nov 2013 stood at 13.0mn tonnes, up 9.2% yoy and down 2.6% mom. Apparent/ Real steel consumption in India for Dec 2013 saw growth of 4.6%/ 1.2% yoy to 6.4/ 5.5mn tonnes respectively
• Global steel inventory excluding EU continued to decline with a 1% fall sequentially to 30.4mn tonnes. The fall was majorly led by falling Flat product inventories in China.
• Iron ore inventory at port in China stands at 81.3mn tonnes, up 1.4% mom. • Base metal prices saw strong momentum during the month with Zinc leading the pack and Aluminium acting as a laggard. Prices of aluminium/ zinc/ lead/ copper increased by 3.1%/ 10.0%/ 6.6%/ 4.6% respectively. Base metal prices in Shanghai exchange also seen similar trend however with lower magnitude except in aluminium (‐1.2% mom).
• SHFE – LME spreads decreased across metals in Dec 2013. This will increase the competitive pressures for players like Novelis in the Asian region.
• Aluminium regional premiums have gained (due to rise in cancelled warrants by 12% mom) in Shanghai, US and Europe region while it stood flat in Japan. Regional premium for zinc reported mix trends with fall in Shanghai and gain in Singapore. Regional premium for Lead fell during the month.
• Alumina prices gained marginally during the month. Alumina price as a % of LME stood flattish at 18.9% in Dec 2013. However they have seen a strong momentum in the start of the New Year.
• Caustic soda price stood flat sequentially in Dec 2013. • All base metals have seen a fall in LME inventory with copper leading the pack. LME inventory of aluminium/ zinc/ lead/ copper decreased by 0.2%/ 3.0%/ 7.3%/ 13.5% respectively.
Domestic HRC prices fell by Rs200 – 400 /tn across regions in Dec 2013 Unlike HRC, TMT prices increased across regions in domestic market in Dec 2013. The quantum of increase varies from Rs 250‐2050/tn with highest gain reported in Chennai
India Plate 20 – 60MM – FOB (US$ / tonne) MS Ingot (Rs / tonne)
480
500
520
540
560
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000 Raipur Raigarh
Plate prices remained unchanged at US$ 508/tn during Dec 2013however it has shown some increase in Jan 2014
Ingot prices gained by Rs 300 – 450/tn in Raigarh/ Raipur respectively in Dec 2013
Sponge Iron – Regionwise (Rs / tonne) Pig Iron – Regionwise (Rs / tonne)
17,500
18,500
19,500
20,500
21,500
22,500
23,500
24,500 Mandi Gobindgarh Raipur Raigarh
21,500
22,500
23,500
24,500
25,500
26,500 Rourkela Raipur
Sponge iron prices declined by Rs 200 – 250/tn in Raigarh/Raipurrespectively while it gained by Rs 100/tn in Mandi
Pig iron prices gained by Rs 200‐400/tn in Raipur and Rourkela respectively in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, Steelmint, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
China Export HRC (US$ / tonne) China Export Rebar (US$ / tonne)
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
475
500
525
550
575
600
Prices stood at US$ 525/tn in Dec 2013, flat mom
Rebar prices gained by US$ 10/tn to US$ 515/tn in Dec 2013
China Domestic HRC (Yuan / tonne) China Domestic Rebar (Yuan / tonne)
3,250
3,450
3,650
3,850
4,050
4,250
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
China domestic HRC prices declining trend took a pause with 0.5% gainduring Dec 2013
Unlike HRC prices, China Rebar prices declined by 1.1% in Dec 2013
Domestic prices gained by Rs500/tn (0.9%) in Dec 2013 to Rs 55,000 Domestic prices gained Rs500/tn (‐0.9%) in Dec 2013 Source: Cris Infac, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Steel Profitability & Cost Index
BOF Steel Profitability Index – North America (US$ / tonne) EAF Steel Profitability Index – Europe (Euro / tonne)
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Profitability index declined by US$ 3/tn to US$ 115 in Dec 2013 Profitability index improved to zero during Dec 2013 from the negative zone previous month
EAF Steel Cost Index – North America (US$ / tonne) EAF Steel Cost Index – Europe (Euro / tonne)
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
540
550
560
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Production & Inventory
World Steel Production (mn tonnes) Regionwise Steel Production (mn tonnes)
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
65.0
75.0
China EU North AmericaAsia ex China CIS Others
World crude steel production for Nov 2013 stands at 127.4mn tonnes,up 4.7% yoy and down 5.1% mom
All regions reported negative growth on sequential basis. Steel production grew yoy in all regions except CIS (‐4%)
China Daily Steel Production (mn tonnes) India Steel Production (mn tonnes)
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
6.0
6.3
6.5
6.8
7.0
7.3
7.5
China daily crude steel production for 2nd 10 days of Dec 2013 stood at2.01mn tonnes, up 0.1% mom and 5.4% sequentially
Finished steel production for Dec 2013 stands at 6.6mn tonnes, up 5.0% yoy and 6.3% mom
China Iron Ore Production (mn tonnes) Iron Ore Production‐ Australia & Brazil (mn tonnes)
110
114
118
122
126
130
134
138
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550Australia Brazil
China produced 138.7mn tonnes of iron ore in Nov 2013, up 11.2% yoy and 2.8% mom
Source: Bloomberg, JPC, WSA, CISA, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Global Steel Inventory excl EU (mn tonnes) China Steel Inventory (mn tonnes)
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
500600700800900
100011001200130014001500
Longs Flats
World inventory declined to 30.4mn tonnes in Dec 2013, 22.8% down from highest level reported in end of March 2013. It is down 1.0% mom
Long/Flats products inventory fell by 1.7%/ 3.0% mom during Dec 2013
US Service Centre Inventory Canada Service Centre Inventory (mn tonnes)
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
US Steel products inventory (mn tonnes)US Steel products months of inventory
US steel products months of inventory fell to 2.1 months in Oct 2013.This is lowest level reported since Mar 2010
Canada serice centre inventory fell by 32.0% YTD in CY13. Inventory in Oct 2013 fell by 4.0% on sequential basis. This is the lowest level of inventory reported post Jan 2010
Japan Steel Inventory (mn tonnes) China Iron Ore Inventory at Ports (mn tonnes)
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
65
70
75
80
85
90
Japan steel inventory gained by 3.1% sequentially to 8.3mn tonnes inOct 2013
Iron ore inventory at port stands at 81.3mn tonnes, up 1.4% mom. This is the highest inventory reported since last week of Nov 2012
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Trade Data
India Steel Consumption (mn tonnes) India Steel: Imports – Exports (000 tonnes)
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Apparent Real
250
350
450
550
650
750
850 Import Export
Apparent and real finished steel consumption saw growth of 4.6% and 1.2% yoy to 6.4mn tonnes and 5.5mn tonnes respectively in Dec 2013
Exports for Dec 2013 stood at 0.61mn tonnes, +27.3%/ ‐22.2% on yoyand mom basis. Imports stood at 0.44mn tonnes, ‐35.7% /+42.9% onyoy and mom basis respectively
China Net Steel Exports (mn tonnes) EU Apparent Steel Consumption (mn tonnes)
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.8
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
Net steel exports from China in Nov 2013 stood at 3.75mn tonnes, down7.9% and 4.6% on yoy and mom basis respectively
Apparent steel consumption in EU for Nov 2013 stood at 13.0mntonnes, up 9.2% yoy and down 2.6% mom
Europe Flat Products Net Imports/(Exports) (000 tonnes) Europe Long Products Net Exports (000 tonnes)
(700)
(600)
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
‐
100
200
450500550600650700750800850900
Flat steel net exports from Europe stood at 391KT in Oct 2013 against 484KT in Oct 2012
Net steel exports of long products stood at 560KT in Oct 2013, down35.7% and 9.2% on yoy and mom basis respectively
Source: Bloomberg, JPC, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
US Net Steel Imports (000 tonnes) Japan Net Steel Exports (000 tonnes)
US net steel imports in Oct 2013 stood at 1.8mn tonnes, up 38.7% yoy and 9.5% mom. This is the highest monthly imports since May 2012
Net steel exports in Nov 2013 stood at 2.6mn tonnes, down 8.2% yoy and 0.2% mom
China Iron Ore Imports (mn tonnes) China Iron Ore Imports‐ Australia & Brazil (mn tonnes)
55
60
65
70
75
80
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0 Australia Brazil
Iron ore imports in Nov 2013 stood at 77.8mn tonnes, up 18.3% and 14.8% on yoy and mom basis respectively. This is highest ever monthlyimports reported by China
Iron ore imports from Australia/ Brazil stood at 39.6/ 15.4mn tonnes in Nov 2013, up 18.9%/9.3% yoy and 10.2%/ 20.9% sequentially
Iron Ore Exports‐ Australia & Brazil (mn tonnes) Coking Coal Exports‐ Australia (mn tonnes)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55 Australia Brazil
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
Iron ore exports from Brazil in Nov 2013 stood at 22.6mn tonnes, down30.7% yoy and 30.6% mom
Australia coking coal exports in Aug 2013 stood at 14.4mn tonnes, up30.0% and 11.5% on yoy and mom basis respectively
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Premium in Shanghai increased by US$ 30/tn (+12.8%) in Dec 2013 toUS$ 265/tn. This is the highest ever premium reported over LME inShanghai
Aluminium premiums stood flat in Japan (US$246) during Dec 2013. It increased in US (US$ 36 to US$ 259) and Europe (US$ 20 to US$ 280) during the month
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Warehousing Profit / Loss (US$ / tonne) LME / Used Beverages Cans spread – N America (US$ / tonne)
(60)
(40)
(20)
‐
20
40
60
80
100
27M 15M
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100LME aluminium UBC Spread (RHS)
Profit in financing deals for 15M stood flat at US$ 37 while it fell by US$39 to US$ 40 for 27M in Dec 2013
LME Aluminium / UBC spread receovered with a 54.2% mom (US$ 286/tn) gain in Sep 2013
Scrap – North America (US$ / tonne) Aluminium Scrap – Italy (Euro / tonne)
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
Used Beverage Cans Mixed low copper clipsOld Sheet Old CastTurnings (Clean and dry)
1220
1240
1260
1280
1300
1320
1340
1360
1380
Scrap prices in North America fell by 0% ‐ 4.6% sequentially in Sep 2013 Aluminium scrap prices in Italy fell by 1.2% (Euro 15/tn) in Dec 2013
Aluminium Scrap – US Foundry Ingot (US$ / lb) Aluminium Scrap – UK Foundary Ingot (GBP / tonne)
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
950
975
1000
1025
1050
1075
1100
1125
1150
Aluminium scrap prices fell marginally on sequential basis in Dec 2013 Aluminium scrap prices stood flat in Dec 2013 Source: Bloomberg, USGS, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Alumina Prices: Australia FOB (US$ / tonne) Alumina Prices: China CFR (US$ / tonne)
305
315
325
335
345
355
400
405
410
415
420
425
430
435
Alumina FOB price stood at US$ 328/tn, up 1.6% mom on restockingdemand and concerns of Indonesia banning bauxite exports
China alumina prices fell by US$ 6/tn at US$ 404/tn in Dec 2013
Alumina as a % of LME Caustic Soda – India (Rs / tonne)
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
28500
30500
32500
34500
36500
38500
40500
Alumina price as a % of LME stood flat at 18.9% in Dec 2013. It hasseen further momentum in the new year
Caustic soda price stood flat sequentially at Rs 34800/tn in Dec 2013
Caustic Soda – US (US$ / tonne)
570
590
610
630
650
670
Caustic Soda prices stayed flat at US$ 639/tn since Sep 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Aluminium Production‐ World (000 tonnes) Regionwise Aluminium Production (000 tonnes)
3900
3950
4000
4050
4100
4150
4200
4250
200400600800
100012001400160018002000
China AmericaEurope Asia excl ChinaAfrica & Oceania Others
World aluminium production for Nov 2013 stood at 4.19mn tonnes, up5.8% yoy and down 1.6% sequentially
Excluding China, yoy production growth fell by 2.7% and 0.7% in Nov 2013and YTD CY13. Proudction in China for Nov 2013 stood at 1.95mn tonnes, up 17.6% and 0.2% on yoy and mom basis
Companywise Aluminium Production (tonnes) Aluminium Consumption‐ World (000 tonnes)
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000 Hindalco Nalco Balco VAL
3550
3650
3750
3850
3950
4050
World consumption in Oct 2013 stood at 4.0mn tonnes, up 0.9% and 4.8% on yoy and mom basis respectively. This is the highest monthly consumption reported. YTD CY13 consumption stood at 38.4mn tonnes, up 1.8% yoy
Regionwise Aluminium Consumption (000 tonnes) Alumina Production (000 tonnes)
200
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
2,700
3,200
3,700
4,200
World USA Europe China Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
East & Central Europe ChinaSouth America EuropeOthers
All major regions have reported positive growth in consumptionsequentially in Oct 2013 except Europe. YoY production growth is drivenby China (+10.8%)
World alumina production for Nov 2013 stands at 9.16mn tonnes, up 11.4% yoy and down 0.2% mom. The yoy growth is majorly driven by China (+29.0% yoy)
Source: Bloomberg, IAI, Ministry of Mines, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
World‐ Bauxite Production (mn tonnes) Regionwise‐ Bauxite Production (mn tonnes)
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
0.9
1.9
2.9
3.9
4.9
5.9
6.9
China Indonesia Australia
Brazil India Others
Bauxite production in Oct 2013 stood at 23.7mn tonnes, up 7.7% yoy and down 1.6% mom
All major regions have reported YoY growth in production (except India& others) while it stood almost flat sequentially except Indonesia and others regions
Zinc consumption stood at 1.2mn tonnes in Oct 2013, up 12.6% and 4.2% on yoy and mom basis respectively. This is the highest evermonthly zinc consumption reported in a particular month
LME zinc inventory fell by 3.0% in Dec 2013. This is the lowest level of inventory reported since mid Sep 2012
Shanghai Zinc Inventory (000 tonnes)
215
235
255
275
295
315
335
Shanghai exchange inventory reversed its falling trend with 3.1% momgains in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, ILZSG, Ministry of Mines, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Lead
LME Lead (US$ / tonne) Shanghai Lead (Yuan / tonne)
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
13500
13750
14000
14250
14500
14750
15000
15250
15500
Lead prices gained by US$ 135 (+6.6%) in Dec 2013 to US$ 2191
Shanghai Lead prices gained by 2.2% during Dec 2013
Premiums in US stood flat at US$ 143/tn since last week of Oct 2013 Premium in Singapore stood flat at US$ 135. Premium in Rotterdam/ Shanghai decreased by US$ 7.5/ 20 to US$ 135/ 177.5 respectively in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Copper Scrap (Euro / tonne)‐ France Copper Scrap China (US$ / tonne)
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
Copper scrap prices in France gained by 1.3% (65 Euro/tn) in Dec 2013 Scrap prices in China corrected by 0.8% (US$ 23/tn) in Nov 2013
Copper scrap prices in Germany stood flat at US$ 5080/tn during Dec2013
World mine production is up 7.6% yoy and down 1.3% mom in Sep2013
Copper Refined Production (000 tonnes) Companywise Production – India (tonnes)
200
450
700
950
1,200
1,450
1,700
1,950
Primary Refined Metal productionSecondary Refined Metal productionTotal Refined Metal production
‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000 Hindalco Sterlite Hindustan Copper
Refined production is up 4.4% yoy and down 1.5% sequentially in Sep2013. Refined copper market balance for Sep 2013 showed productiondeficit of 162,000 tonnes
Source: Bloomberg, ICSG, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
World copper consumption for Sep 2013 stands at 1.93mn tonnes, up10.8% yoy and 8.4% mom. This is the highest ever monthlyconsumption reported in a particular month
LME copper inventory is down 13.5% sequentially in Dec 2013. It has corrected by 40.2% since July 2013
LME lead cancelled warrant declined 34.1% mom to 32,150 tonnes. It fell nearly 82.3% since last week of May 2013
LME copper cancelled warrant currently stands at 0.242mn tonnes, down 8.8% mom
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Open Interest ‐ LME
Aluminium (000 contracts) Zinc (000 contracts)
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
245
255
265
275
285
295
305
315
Open interest in Aluminium LME contracts fell 1.1% in Dec 2013 Open interest in Zinc LME contracts gained by 5.8% sequentially in Dec2013
Lead (000 contracts) Copper (000 contracts)
100
110
120
130
140
150
215
235
255
275
295
315
Open interest in Lead LME contracts gained by 1.3% in Dec 2013 Open interest in Copper LME contracts reported highest gain across base metals with 6.3% sequential gain in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
No. 1, C‐Block, 2nd Floor, Modern Center , Jacob Circle, K. K. Marg, Mahalaxmi Mumbai 400011 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 www.phillipcapital.in
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
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