2. Some actual examples, core data & labour market data North East Regional Economic Model(NEEM) Overview and Training Session 24 June 2008 North East.

2. Some actual examples, core data &

labour market data

North East Regional Economic Model(NEEM)

Overview and Training Session

24 June 2008North East Economic Model. Overview and training session 1

Some practical examplesRES scenario work

Regional Economic Strategy ScenariosGiven the 90% RES scenario

What would need to happen in priority and non-priority sectors for the target to be hit? What would this imply for employment? What demand would be placed on the labour force in

terms of qualifications and occupations?

2

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1

2


“The RDA’s RES priority sectors focus primarily upon growth centred around relatively higher skilled areas of the regional economy; hence the FTE positions created require a much higher proportion of higher skilled workers than are presently contained within the region’s working labour force.

This destruction of low skilled jobs, combined with the creation of higher skilled jobs, produces economy level demands for higher skilled workers that are well in excess of the typical proportional demands from any one sector.”

324 June 2008North East Economic Model. Overview and training session


Illustrating the value of having numerical estimates.

Scenario one fromModelling the North East Economy:

Examining the qualification and occupation needs demanded by a scenario assuming the region achieves ninety percent of GB GVA per head

4

Scenario one

2006 2016 Change

Degree or equivalent 197,000 221,000 24,000

18.6% 19.4% 31.2%Higher education 105,000 115,000 10,000

9.9% 10.1% 13.0%GCE A Level or equivalent 267,000 284,000 17,000

25.2% 25.0% 22.1%GCSE grades A-C or equivalent

214,000 228,000 14,000

20.2% 20.1% 18.2%Other qualifications 123,000 129,000 6,000

11.6% 11.3% 7.8%No qualification 142,000 148,000 6,000

13.4% 13.0% 7.8%Don't know 12,000 12,000 0

1.1% 1.1% 0.0%Total 1,060,000 1,137,000 77,000


Some practical examplesWhat is the impact of tourist spending

on the regional economy?What is the impact of the spending by

the HE sector on the regional economy?What is the impact of ‘fuel poverty’

interventions on the regional economy?If current trends continue within

Northumberland what will county level employment look like, by sector, in 5 years time? In 10 years time?


Some practical examplesRAF Boulmer

Personnel numbers 1086a further 228 jobs were estimated to have been

supported within the region by RAF Boulmer activities.


6

Total Proportion

Primary industries 3 1

Secondary industries

0 0

Manufacturing 10 4

Energy and water 1 ~0

Construction 22 10

Services 193 85

All industries 228 100%

Core data outputsBaselines and impact analysis can be

produced in terms ofGross output (basic prices)GVAIncome (by occupational group)Worker headcountsFTE workersFTE occupationsFTE qualificationsBusiness sites

etc


Key data sources6 years of funding from ONEData on 110 sectors

UK input-output balancesAnnual Business Inquiry financial & employment dataHM Customs & Excise dataPESA analysesLabour Force SurveyFamily Expenditure SurveyNew Earnings SurveyONS regional accountsInternational Passenger Survey & United Kingdom Tourism

SurveyRegional survey (sample of 2,000 + firms in key industries)

etc


Comparability of outputsThe UK Input-Output Annual Supply and Use

Tables is based on the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA 95)ESA 95 is based on the United Nations System

of National Accounts 1993 (SNA 93). SNA 93 has been adopted worldwide and the ESA 95 based accounts are a legal requirement of European Union Member StatesBetter international comparisonsThe UK moved onto the ESA 95 standard in 1998

Available for UK, Scotland, Wales and the South West


Some benefits“Improved access to better data”

Brings together the best regional data sources.Most data unpublished/specially acquiredAchieves consistency across data sets

Expands scope of analysis whilst reducing user costsAccounting framework links together different

aspects of the economy allowing ‘interactivity’ between data (e.g. Export and employment together enable you to derive Exports per employee)

Allows ‘benchmarking’ e.g. between industries, regions, sub-regions, etc.

No search costs for usersProvides a sound basis for economic modelling


Labour market informationThere are several different ways of

representing employment in an industry.The worker head count (f/t and p/t) - does not

adjust for the amount of work done by an individual.

Full-time equivalent workers - adjusts part-time and casual workers for the amount of hours worked.

'Self-employment' includes working proprietors, partners and executive directors.

The term 'worker' refers to employees and self-employed.


Labour market informationEmployee data is derived from ABI/1Self employment data from ABI/2 and the LFSThe agricultural census and Defense Statistics

are used to estimate the workforce in agriculture and HM Services

Hours worked by part-time/casual workers in each industry is estimated from the LFS

Estimates of the highest qualification obtained by workers and the occupation structure in each industry are derived from the LFSEstimates are scaled to the total of FTE workers in

each industry


Labour market informationQuality Assessment

Employee-related fair to goodSelf-employee related fairSub-regional employment fair


13

Occupations Corporate managers Managers and proprietors in

agriculture and services Science and technology

professionals Health professionals Teaching and research

professionals Business and public service

professionals Science and technology associate

professionals Health and social welfare

associate professionals Protective service occupations Culture, media and sports

professionals Business and public service

associate professionals Administrative occupations

Secretarial and related occupations Skilled agricultural trades Skilled metal and electrical trades Skilled construction and building

trades Textiles, printing and other skilled

trades Caring personal service occupations Leisure and other personal service

occupations Sales occupations Customer service occupations Process, plant and machine

operatives Transport and mobile machine drivers

and operatives Elementary trades, plant and storage

related occupations Elementary administration and

storage occupations 24 June 2008North East Economic Model. Overview and training session 14

QualificationsNVQ equivalents

Highest qualification attained


15

HouseholdsThe Regional Accounts classify households

according to the labour market activity status and occupation of the ‘head of household’.Unemployed Inactive Managers and senior officials Professional occupations Associate professional and technical Administrative and secretarial occupations Skilled trade occupations Personal service occupations Sales and customer service occupations Plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations


2. Some actual examples, core data & labour market data North East Regional Economic Model(NEEM) Overview and Training Session 24 June 2008 North East.

Documents

north east economic

north east economy

training session24

regional economy

higher skilled areas

economy level demands

higher education105

impact analysis