2 October 2006 1 Navy – NOAA Joint Ocean and Coastal Modeling and Forecasting Marie Colton National Ocean Service 2 October 2006.

2 October 2006 1

Navy – NOAA Joint Ocean and Coastal Modeling and Forecasting

Marie Colton

National Ocean Service

2 October 2006

2

2 October 2006

Outline

• Goals and Objectives• Purpose• Issue• Background• Intersecting Issues• Summary• Recommendations

3

2 October 2006

Overarching Goals and Objectives

• Goal: A global perspective on oceans and coasts through shared development and implementation of a national capability in operational ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting

• Objectives:– Coordination of internal, external, and interagency

communications and agreements– Definition of NOAA and Navy ocean and coastal

modeling and forecasting strategy– Identification of and action along Navy/NOAA

intersections

4

2 October 2006

Purpose

• Explicit definition of Navy and NOAA commitments for partnership in community modeling and forecasting

• Status of activities to identify actions and intersections– Agency and joint strategies and way forward– Solicit direct agency feedback to ensure continuity

of effort and visibility• NOAA: AA’s of cognizant offices• Navy: CNO/CNMOC (McGee), Oceanographer,

SPAWAR, CNR: ONR, NRL

5

2 October 2006

Issue

• Ocean/Coastal Community Modeling Requirements Definition: Navy/NOAA– Missions remain separate– Requirement Overlaps identified for effectiveness– Common approaches developed

• Articulate and align capabilities to increase technical support for Navy and NOAA ocean/coastal forecasting– Develop system of consistent compatible ocean models that

pass information and scale from global to regional to very local

– Specific projects to quickly advance cooperation and coordination process

6

2 October 2006

Issue

• Who is involved– 4 NOAA Line Offices (NESDIS, NOS, NWS/NCEP, OAR)– 5 Navy Offices (CNMOC, FNMOC, NAVO, ONR, NRL)

• What is involved– Ocean Modeling Action Plan (NOAA SAB)– Tri-Agency Atmospheric Modeling Partnership (National

Unified Operational Prediction Capability)– IOOS Development Plan– Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014)– NOAA Environmental Modeling Program

7

2 October 2006

Background

• Navy AMOP Meetings– September 2005 (Naval Observatory), February

2006 (Pearl Harbor), September 2006 (Stennis Space Center)

• March 29, 2006: Joint Planning Session, NOAA Headquarters, Silver Spring

• June 13-14, 2006: Joint Workshop, Stennis Space Center

8

2 October 2006

Intersecting Issue #1:

Operational Ocean Modeling and Forecasting

Key Activities• Data availability,

access, and distribution• Concept of operations

(CONOPS)• Shared development

environment• Shared products and

services

Key Approaches• Demonstration project:

align satellite altimetry observing requirements

• Portal for ocean modeling outputs (NCDC)

• Operational backup and data assimilation

• Earth System Modeling Framework

9

2 October 2006

Developing NOAA Strategy

Space

Tim

e

Phenomena of Interest

Space

Tim

e

Observing Systems

Observations & OSSEIOOS, NESDIS, OAR, JCSDA

Data Assimilation & OSENESDIS, NWS, OAR, JCSDA

Operational Ocean and Coastal Forecast GuidanceNOS, NWS Ops

Products and Services

Research Operations

Giant Bluefin TunaHAB Bulletin

ENSO Update

Satellite

In situ

OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION

MODEL ATTRIBUTES:Global to Regional Scale

MODEL ATTRIBUTES:Global to Regional Scale

OPERATIONAL OCEAN FORECASTS

Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

Shared history, coding, and data processing

OBSERVATIONS

CLIMATE FORECAST OCEAN FORECAST

http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System

COASTAL OCEANBOUNDARY SPECIFICATION

MODEL ATTRIBUTES:Regional to Local

ScaleRapidly Relocatable

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html

Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting

11

2 October 2006

Intersecting Issue #2:

Ocean Model and Forecast Development

Key Activities• Standardization of

models• Data assimilation• Shared development

environment• Model validation and

evaluation

Key Approaches• Model characterization:

HYCOM, ADCIRC, ROMS, WW3, SWAN, Tides, PC Tides

• Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• Model test beds and performance metrics

• User/developer groups

12

2 October 2006

Intersecting Issue #3:

Technologies and Standards

Key Activities• Source code• Standard tools and

utilities• Standard inputs• Standard outputs

Key Approaches• Common configuration

management• Software and

information technologies

• Databases• Static inputs and forcing

functions• Data exchange formats• ESMF

13

2 October 2006

Intersecting Issue #4:

Transition Methodology

Key Activities• Recommend metrics for

common validation and intercomparison of models

• Transition plans: development to operations

• Coordinate system development and transition

Key Approaches• Follow-on workshops• Mapping across Navy

and NOAA transition plans– NOAA Transition Board– Navy Rapid Transition

Process

• Technical readiness levels

14

2 October 2006

Define Current Infrastructure for Common Modeling and Forecasting

Hardware Software Config. Management

NOAA Capabilities

Navy Capabilities

Programs

HYCOM Working group

ADCIRC Working group

WW3 Working group (Planned)

GFDL Models

15

2 October 2006

Intersecting Issue #5:

Coordination and Program

• Ensure chains of command are informed and continue to support the process

• Maintain a steady flow of results and adjust coordination accordingly

• Agreements for shared products or services or proposed joint efforts

16

2 October 2006

Recommendations

• Internal: Establish NOAA Administrative Ocean/Coastal Modeling Oversight Panel– Dialogue on ocean model/forecast requirements– Resource support for ocean modeling working groups– Coordination among appropriate NOAA goals and programs– Oversight on end-to-end ocean/coastal forecasting systems

• Joint: Articulate and align Navy and NOAA requirements and approaches – Complete individual and joint Navy-NOAA ocean/coastal forecasting CONOPS– Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3, ROM)– Data Assimilation (expand JCSDA to include ocean/coastal activities)– Development of technical approaches to common issues– Joint high-level meeting for agency direction to ensure continuity of effort and visibility– Formalize NOAA and Navy ocean forecasting activities (annexes to MOA, Tri-Agency)– Develop communications plan for joint statement on Navy-NOAA community ocean modeling effort

• External: Integrate with external partner strategies – Provide guidance to IOOS Modeling and Analysis Steering Team, sponsor community modeling

workshops– Ocean Research Priorities Plan– ESMF

17

2 October 2006

Alternative #1

• Ad hoc coordination with NOAA “matrix” and Navy• Pros

– No funds needed– No obligations necessary (flexible)

• Cons– Doesn’t meet urgency of need for operational ocean and

coastal modeling and forecasting – Proliferation of options to solve problems independently– Technical issues not solved efficiently– One NOAA common voice not heard– No clear message to external community– Cannot guarantee commitments or quality

18

2 October 2006

Alternative #2

• Formalized NOAA AMOP to work with Navy AMOP to address technical issues– Ocean Model development, characterization, standards– Ocean Observations and assimilation; OSSE, OSE– Data distribution and analysis– Products and services– IT coordination (hardware and software)

• Pros– Completes NOAA end-to-end parallel mechanism for discussing ocean and

coastal forecasting requirements, CONOPS, approval of research to operations, and technical execution

– Establishes clear mechanism for negotiating ocean community modeling commitments with external partners, including Navy

– Ability to fund, schedule, and execute implementation activities• Cons

– May be construed as another governance committee, but must be characterized as an implementation body

19

2 October 2006

Summary

• Navy/NOAA working together to establish common ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting frameworks for future success

• Building on mutual and unique strengths in operational oceanography and coastal services through examination of existing efforts

• Providing harmonized environmental models for external communities to focus on and provide physical basis for ecological forecasting

2 October 2006 20

Extended Discussion

Communications

NOAA Strategy

Integration

21

2 October 2006

Communications:

Developing Synergies Within and Outside NOAA

• Global Local physical ocean modeling– Coordinate with Navy research and operations

(CNMOC/FNMOC/NAVO, NRL, ONR)– Via NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Program (???)

• Advancing ecosystem modeling and forecasting– Alignment of NOAA research and operations (NESDIS

STAR; NMFS; NOS CO-OPS, CSDL, NCCOS; NWS NCEP; OAR)

• Engaging the external modeling community– IOOS Modeling Caucus and Modeling & Analysis Steering

Team (MAST) – JSOST Ocean Research Priorities Plan – Forecasting

subtopic• National governance

– Development of Tri-Agency NUOPC

22

2 October 2006

Developing NOAA Strategy

• Starting from existing capabilities– Physical models

• Considering user requirements• Coordinating activity in support of NOAA

Environmental Modeling Program– Regional approach to management– Ecosystem forecasting alternative (Ecosystem

Goal)– Next-generation integrated basin-scale operational

ocean modeling system

• Interface to ecosystem modeling and forecasting efforts

Satellite(AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT)

In situ(ARGO, Buoys, Ships)

OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION

RT-OFS-GODAENOPPEMC

CFS-GODASNCO/ODA

EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO)

OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS

Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

Data CutoffCFS: 2 week data cutoff RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff

Shared history, coding, and data

processing

MOM-3 MOM-4 GUOM HYCOM GUOM

OBSERVATIONS

CLIMATE FORECAST OCEAN FORECAST

http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System

Coastal Ocean BoundarySpecification

ODAASNOS/CSDL/CO-OPS

NWS/EMC/NCO

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html

In situ(ARGO, Buoys, C-Man, NWLON, River Gage)

Satellite(Altimetry, SST)

Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting

24

2 October 2006

Current Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting

• Mostly physics modeling and data assimilation

• Working towards integrating ecological modeling

• Downscaling from global to regional to local models

• Need to promote existing operations within and outside of NOAA

25

2 October 2006

Developing NOAA Ocean and Coastal Modeling and Forecasting Strategy:

Ecosystems Modeling

• Starting from existing capabilities– NOS Modeling Prioritization Project

• Considering user requirements• Coordinating activity in support of NOAA Ecosystem

Goal Team– Regional approach to management– Ecosystem forecasting alternative

• Connections to Navy ecosystem modeling needs– Water quality, ocean optics, rivers and estuaries, marine

mammals

• Seamless suite of products and services

NOAA CoordinationF

OR

EC

AS

T T

IME

FR

AM

E

REAL TIME

DAYS

MONTHS

YEARS

USER GROUPS

TRANSPORTATION COASTAL HAZARDS WATER QUALITY &HUMAN HEALTH

COASTAL HABITATS

FO

RE

CA

ST

UN

CE

RT

AIN

TY

Toxicity Toxicity

Flood forecasts

Oil weathering Oil weathering

Geomorphology

Risks/exposure

Ocean color/primary production

Invasive species suscept.

Larval trans./MPA design

Climate effects/food web

Storm surge

Shellfish bed closures

Decision support tools

Population dynamics

Socioeconomic models Socio-economic models

Restoration

Geomorphology

Levels, currents, S & T

Spill planning

Resource harvest

Disease transmission

Hypoxic zone formation

Recovery curvesHABs (formation, upwelling, regional monitoring & prediction)

Particle trajectory (pollution, invasive species, HAB, sediment, multimedia/multipath sources)

Biological/physical coupling

Ecosystems (SLR, multiple stressors, hypoxia, change)

Climate effects/water level

Draft NOAA Ecosystem Modeling and Forecast Products (Operational, In Development, and Needs)

28

2 October 2006

Recommendations

• Complete NOAA, Navy, and joint CONOPS for operational ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting– Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3, ROM)

• Coordinate among appropriate NOAA goals and programs• Specify continued NOAA-wide involvement

– Resource support for working groups– Recognition of and dialogue on requirements

• Clarify IOOS roles and responsibilities in community modeling development (Modeling and Analysis Steering Team)– Resource support for community modeling workshops

• Formalize NOAA and Navy governance in ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting– Technical cooperation via annexes to MOU– Programmatic coordination via Tri-Agency NUOPC and other

means– Develop communications plan

29

2 October 2006

Schedule of Significant Events and Milestones

2 October 2006 30

Additional and Expanded Slides

31

2 October 2006

Background

• Navy AMOP Meetings: September 2005 (Naval Observatory) and February 2006 (Pearl Harbor)

• March 29, 2006: Joint Planning Session, NOAA Headquarters, Silver Spring, MD– Purpose: Develop a plan of action and milestones for short-term

joint activities– Outcomes: Identified two important questions, “how will we

coordinate?” and “what are the details of the models?”• June 13-14, 2006: Joint Workshop, Stennis Space Center, MS

– Purpose: Answer “how will we coordinate?” question– Outcomes: Identified four “issue areas” for further cooperation and

coordination• Relevant Statements, Policies, and Opinions

– Ocean Action Modeling Plan (NOAA SAB)– Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014)– Tri-Agency Agreement (National Unified Operational Prediction

Capability)– IOOS Development Plan

32

2 October 2006

Technical Issue #1:

Operational Ocean Modeling

• Data availability, access, and distribution– Coordinated satellite altimetry requirements– Common portal for static and time-dependent boundary data

bases– Common portal for archive of model output products– Announce availability of lateral boundary conditions

supporting regional and coastal models– Shared processing requirements

• Concept of operations (CONOPS)– Operational backup of existing operational ocean modeling

and data assimilation• Shared development environment

– Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational modeling systems

• Shared products and services– Definition of requirements (geographic and temporal scales)

33

2 October 2006

Technical Issue #2:

Ocean Model Development

• Standardization of models– Endorse existing developer/user groups for HYCOM and ADCIRC– Encourage new developer/user group for wave modeling (WW3,

SWAN)– ROM and POM?

• Data assimilation– Promote Navy & NOS ocean representation on JCSDA

Management Oversight Board

• Shared development environment– Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational modeling systems

• Model validation and evaluation– Process for joint review and recommendation of products for future

coordinated development– Announce intention to coordinate development of ocean and

coastal models– Creation of model test beds and evaluation metrics

34

2 October 2006

Technical Issue #3:

Technologies and Standards

• Source code– Encourage coordination and further development of ESMF

core software– Common configuration management approach

• Standard tools and utilities– Workshop to review and recommend common supporting

software and technologies• Standard inputs

– Static and time-dependent boundary data bases– Capability for access to common atmospheric forcing

• Standard outputs– Workshop to review and recommend standardized data

exchange formats and standards

Fronts,Eddies, &Filaments

PlanktonMigration

Phenomena of Interest

1 sec

1 wk

1 day

1 mo

1 yr

10 yr

100 yr

10-3 m 10-2 m 10-1 m 100 m 101 m 102 m 103 m 104 m 105 m 106 m 107 m

MolecularProcesses

1 min

IndividualMovement

1 hr

TurbulentPatch Size

Surface Waves

Langmuir Cells

Inertial/Internal& Solitary Waves

InternalTides

Surface Tides

PhytoplanktonBlooms

Synoptic Storms, River Outflows, & Sediment

Resuspension

Mesoscale phenomena

Coastally trapped waves

Seasonal MLD & Biomass Cycles

ENSO

Decadal Oscillations/Fish Regime Shifts

Climate

Spatial Scale

Te

mp

ora

l Sca

le

Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems 40-41: 5-48.

Observing Systems

10-3 m 10-2 m 10-1 m 100 m 101 m 102 m 103 m 104 m 105 m 106 m 107 m

Spatial Scale

1 sec

1 wk

1 day

1 mo

1 yr

10 yr

100 yr

1 min

1 hr

Te

mp

ora

l Sca

le

Moorings, Bottom Tripods, and Shore-based and

Offshore-based Platforms

AUVs

HF Radar

Satellites

Planes

Drifters, Floaters, Gliders

Submarine & Ship Mapping

Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems 40-41: 5-48.

38

2 October 2006

High Resolution Coastal Domains(Demonstrates interface between Shelf and

Coastal models)

39

2 October 2006

In Development

Operational Coastal Models

• Observations: Long and short range radar, SAR, SeaWIFS, Lidar (already using altimetry, SST, and in situ obs – C-Man, NWLON, river gages)

• Data Assimilation: CTDs, SST, Altimetry, Fronts, Surface radars

40

2 October 2006

NOAA Coordination

Generalized Research to Operations Plan for Modeling in NOAA

Gauge user needs

Overview current

modeling capabilities

Identify gaps between user

needs and current

capabilities

Identify modeling and

other strategies to address gaps

Conceptualize modeling

approaches and standards

Begin research and gather

data for model(s)

Develop prototype model(s)

Testing and transition to operational

Operational within Line

Office

Operational in broader context

MPP Contributions