1H-2018 Performance & Updates - chandra-asri.com · Status: Completed and restarted on 3 June 2018 ...

Analyst Meeting

Jakarta September 19th, 2018

1H-2018 Performance & Updates

Agenda:

1. Q2 2018 Performance

2. 2H 2018 Outlook

3. Projects Update

4. Q & A

2

Q2 2018 Performance

3

Company Highlights Q2 2018

4

No LTA recorded during Q2. Achieved combined 11,200,758 work hours without LTA as of 30 June 2018.

Achieved consolidated EBITDA of US$104m in Q2 bringing 1H 2018 EBITDA to US$233m with margin of 18% amid rising naphtha cost (higher crude oil prices), lower sales volume, partly offset by higher average selling prices somewhat mitigating higher feedstock cost.

Lower sales volume impacted by 90 days Butadiene (BD) plant shutdown and seasonal effect of Lebaranholidays in June curtailing delivery to customers.

Maintained high operating rates for all plants >90% except for planned shutdown of BD for tie-in /TAM.

All projects progressing as per plan. Successfully startup of BD plant with expanded capacity of 137KTA (+37%) on 3 June 2018. Achieved mechanical completion of SBR plant on 24 May 2018 and successfully started up on 31 Aug 2018.

Product Spreads (in US$/MT)

5

PolyolefinsOlefins Others

-

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

SM Butadiene Naphtha

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Ethylene PropyleneNaphtha

-

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Polyethylene Polypropylene

Naphtha

Continuing healthy product spreads, despite increasing feedstock price reflecting higher crude oil ...

Operating Rates

6

Ethylene

97%100%

94%98% 97%

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

Polyethylene

Polypropylene Styrene Monomer Butadiene

91%

108% 109%96%

108%

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

107%96%

88%103%

92%

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

116%

77%

33%

116%

54%

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

99%107% 100%

86%103%

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

(1) Due to planned shutdown during Mar-Jun 2018 (90 days) for tie-in works of 37% capacity expansion and TAM.

(1)

Maintained high operating rates for all plants except for Butadiene plant due to 90 days planned shutdown for capacity expansion and maintenance turnaround

Production and Sales Volumes

7

83 90 84145

174

70 97 73

147 170

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

Prod Sales

Ethylene

Source: Company information

Polyethylene

Polypropylene Styrene Monomer Butadiene

208 215 203

422 418

111 108 96

236 203

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

Prod Salesin KT in KT

110 129 131

230 260

111 141

116

225 257

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 20171H 2018

Prod Sales

91 82 76

176 156

92 87 74

172 161

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 20171H 2018

Prod Sales

29 19 9

58 28 30 22 8

60 30

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 20171H 2018

Prod Salesin KT in KT in KT

Market Situation

8Source: Company Information

Revenue by Segment (US$m)

370 413

456582

217

222147

63561195

1286

1H 2017 1H 2018

Olefin Polyolefin SM BD Tanks & Jetty Rental

175 206 207 217 322 260 110

121 101 60 42

21 1 4

2 563

695 591

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18

8% higher revenues in 1H-18 vs 1H-17 reflecting higher average sales prices, primarily Ethylene and Polyethylene, partly offset by lower Butadiene sales due to planned shutdown and seasonal effect of Lebaran holiday

Financials (in US$m)

9Source: Company Information

Gross Profit EBITDA (Unaudited)

Net Profit Cash flow from Operations, Capex

116 141

97

292

238

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

66 74 42

174 116

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

123 129 104

295 233

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018

125

18

104 180

122 47 88 71 69

159

Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 1H 2017 1H 2018CFO Capex

Adjusted EBITDA margin 22% 25% 18%19%

Net ProfitMargin

12% 15% 9%11%

18%

7%

Strong Balance Sheet Supported by Financial Profile Strengthening

10

15.3x16.9x

9.0x

2017 30/06/17 30/06/18

(x)

Cash Balance Debt and Net Debt

Adjusted EBITDA / Finance Costs Leverage Ratios (1)

843

212

715

2017 30/06/17 30/06/18

(US$m)

633

373

615

0

161

2017 30/06/17 30/06/18

Debt Net Debt(US$m)

Min2.5x

27% 24% 26%

1.1x 1.3x 1.3x

-0.4x 0.5x -0.2x

2017 30/06/17 30/06/18Debt to Capitalisation Debt to Adjusted EBITDANet debt to Adjusted EBITDA

Max50%

(1) Debt to Capitalisation calculated as total debt divided by (total debt + equity). Debt to Adjusted EBITDA calculated as Total Debt divided by Adjusted EBITDA. Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA calculated as Net Debt divided by Adjusted EBITDA.

FCCRFinancial Covenant

*Net cash position of USD$210m

*Net cash position of USD$100m

2H 2018 Outlook

11

Continuing healthy product spreads despite increasing feedstock price

12Note: Forecasted price based on IHS 31 August 2018

(US$/MT)

-

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018F

Q42018F

Ethylene Polyethylene Naphtha Polypropylene

2H 2018 Planned Activities affecting plant performance

13

Ethylene Cracker 2 furnace revamp for capacity creep (estimated 45 days each) will

be conducted in Q3 2018 and Q4 2018. Estimated production loss 7KT per

shutdown.

SM plant PS2 Turnaround maintenance (TAM) estimated 30 days in Q3 2018.

Estimated production loss 17KT. PS1 TAM carried out in Q2. Estimated production

loss 7KT.

Overall impact is estimated to reduce Full year 2018 production volume by 5% y-o-y,

including Butadiene TAM/tie-in works in 1H 2018.

14

Projects Update

Strategic Growth via Expansion and Debottlenecking (Excluding Second Petrochemical Complex)

15

2016 2020 CAGR: 6.2%

SSBR: 120KT

BD: 37KT

C2: 40KT

C3: 20KT

MTBE: 130KT

B1: 43KT

SSBR operation,

BD expansion

C2, C3, MTBE and Butene-1

PE: 400KT

PP: 110KT

PE expansion& PP

Debotlenecking

After doubling the size of production capacity over historical 10-yrs, expected further growth in the next 5-yrs will come from several expansion & debottlenecking initiatives.

Note: SSBR Solution Styrene Butadiene RubberBD Expansion - Butadiene Plant ExpansionPE - Polyethylene

PP PolypropyleneMTBE - Methyl tert-butyl ether C2 / C3 Refers to furnace revamp

Chart1

201620162016

201820182018

201920192019

202020202020

202020202020

(KT / A)

Column1

Column2

Column3

3301

3301

3301

157

3458

3458

510

3968

3968

233

4201

4201

4201

Sheet1

CategoryColumn1Column2Column3

20163,3013,301

20183,3011573,458157

20193,4585103,968480

20203,9682334,201233

20204,2014,201

16

Furnace Revamp

Increase BD capacity by 100 KT/A to 137 KT/A Rationale:

Add value to incremental C4 post 2015 cracker expansion

Avoid opportunity loss of exporting excess C4 Enjoy BD domestic premium and fulfill SRIs

BD requirement Status: Completed and restarted on 3 June 2018 Estimated cost: US$ 42.0 million

Butadiene Plant Expansion

Increase cracker capacity by modifying heat internals to increase ethylene capacity from 860 KT/A to 900 KT/A and propylene capacity from 470 KT/A to 490 KT/A

Proposed start-up: 1Q2020 Estimated cost: US$ 48.0 million

New facility of total 400 KT/A to produce LLDPE, HDPE and Metallocene LLDPE

Further vertical integration Rationale:

Further vertical integration; Protect and grow leading polymer market

position in Indonesia Proposed start-up: 4Q2019 Estimated cost: US$ 380 million

New Polyethylene Plant

Increase Production Capacity

Additional Expansion and Product Offering Initiatives

Expected to conduct feasibility study for the construction and operation of second integrated petrochemical complex

Complex expected to comprise:

1,100 KT/A ethylene cracker

Various downstream derivative products

Set up new company (PT Chandra Asri Perkasa) to undertake new project

Shareholding structure yet to be finalized and CAP is in discussion with various third parties

There is land available adjacent to main petrochemical complex which would be available for future acquisition as necessary

Second Petrochemical Complex

Production of 127 KT/A and 43 KT/A of MTBE and Butene-1, respectively

Rationale: Secure supply of MTBE and Butene-1 which

are used in the production of Polyethylene Excess demand for MTBE in Indonesia

Proposed start-up: 3Q2020 Estimated cost: US$ 114.0 million

MTBE and Butene 1 Plant

PP Debottlenecking Debottleneck PP plant to increase capacity by

110 KT/A from 480 KT/A to 590 KT/A Rationale:

Demand and supply gap for PP expected to widen in Indonesia

Opportunity to increase PP sales Proposed start-up: 4Q2019 Estimated cost: US$ 39.5 million

Expand Product Offering by Moving Downstream

Synthetic Rubber Project (through SRI JV) Part of downstream integration strategy and

efforts to produce higher-value added products Partnership with leading global player Michelin

(ownership 55:45%) Production capacity: 120 KT/A Status: Mechanical completion 24 May 2018 and

started up 31 Aug 2018. Estimated total project cost: US$570.0 million

(fully funded)

Strategic Growth via Expansion and Debottlenecking

Status of Key Projects

17

Synthetic Rubber Project (JV with Michelin)Achieved mechanical completion of SBR plant on 24 May 2018 and successfully started up on 31August 2018.

Butadiene Expansion ProjectCompleted and resumed in operation since 3 June 2018.

Polypropylene Debottlenecking ProjectOverall progress around 27%. Target completion Q4 2019.

New 400 KTA Polyethylene ProjectOverall progress 59%. Target completion Q4 2019.

Furnace Revamping Project.Overall progress 74%. Target Completion Q1 2020.

MTBE and Butene-1 ProjectOverall progress 17%. Target Completion Q3 2020.

CAP-2 Project(Stage 1: partial land purchase, technology selection, licenses and basic design packages, FA andFEED contractor selection).

18

Capex Breakdown 30 Jun 2018A and 2018 Budget (US$m)

13 17

83

165 -

17

8

26

10

104

12

30

32

207

158

568

30-Jun-18A 2018 Budget

BD expansion PE expansionPP expansion Furnace RevampOthers/TAM MTBE & Butene-1New cracker initial spend

Capex Spending for Key Projects

19

Gate 3: Q419 Funding structure clarity Budget for EPC Bidding

Gate 1: Sep17 Budget approval for Land (partial)/

License/ BEP/ PDP (207 MUSD)

Cap 2 Concept1. Complex Configuration2. Feed Design Basis3. Preliminary Investment

1. Prelim project return2. Technology Award3. License/ BEP/ PDP4. FEED ITB5. Appoint FA

1. FEED2. AMDAL3. Bankability Report4. EPC ITB

1. EPC Bidding2. Final TIC3. Investment Return Report4. Firmed Funding Plan5. Permits

1. EPC Work2. Financial Close3. Commissiong4. Startup H124

Gate 2: Q119 Budget Approval for Land/

FEED/AMDAL/ITB (170+ MUSD)

Gate 4: Q220 FID Approval

Stage 0 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

We are here!

CAP2 Project Master Schedule

20

High-density polyethylene (450)

Low-density polyethylene (300)

Polypropylene (450)

Butadiene (160)

Benzene (335)

Capacity (KTA)

Toluene (220)

Mixed Xylenes (243)

Merchant (260)

CAP1 & Merchant

(140)

SMI (270) & Merchant

Propylene (600)

Mixed C4 (400)

Capacity (KTA)

Ethylene (1,100)

Pyrolysis Gasoline (900)

Est. Flow (KTA)

Naphtha(2,800)

Propane(Flexible up

to 70%*)

CAP1 Pygas(440)

Est. Flow (KTA)

*Ethylene plant can take up to 70% propane in fresh feed, but need OSBL investment to exercise this option

CAP2 product flows and production capacities

21

Production Plant Licensor Production Plant Licensor

Olefins(1.1 MMTA C2)

CB&I HDPE(450KTA)

Texplore

Butadiene(160 KTA)

BASF/CB&I LDPE(300 KTA)

LyondellBasell

Aromatics(335 KTA BZ, 220KTA TL, 243 KTA

MX)

GTC PP(450 KTA)

LyondellBasell

CAP2 Progress Awarded technology licensors and basic design package in Apr18

22

Q & A

23

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Product Spreads (in US$/MT)Operating RatesProduction and Sales VolumesSlide Number 8Financials (in US$m)Strong Balance Sheet Supported by Financial Profile StrengtheningSlide Number 11Slide Number 122H 2018 Planned Activities affecting plant performanceSlide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Status of Key ProjectsSlide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20CAP2 Progress Awarded technology licensors and basic design package in Apr18 Slide Number 22Slide Number 23