Jan 29, 2016
19981998
Post-Soviet Central AsiaPost-Soviet Central Asia
20002000
A Personal ExperienceA Personal ExperienceDaene McKinneyDaene McKinney
Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2006 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html
Some StatisticsSome Statistics
Central AsiaCentral Asia
Aral Sea BasinAral Sea Basin
Syr Darya
Water BalanceWater Balance
Inflow to sea ~ 60 km³Inflow to sea ~ 60 km³
Rivers ~ 50 km³Rivers ~ 50 km³
Groundwater ~ 5 km³Groundwater ~ 5 km³
Precipitation ~ 5 km³Precipitation ~ 5 km³
Evaporation ~ 60 km³ Evaporation ~ 60 km³
Available to use ~ 55 km³Available to use ~ 55 km³
in the basinin the basin
Surface Water AvailabilitySurface Water Availability
Average YearAverage Year
Amu DaryaAmu Darya 78 km³78 km³
Syr Darya Syr Darya 37 km³37 km³
Total Total 115 km³115 km³
Not much change over Not much change over 100 years, but then …100 years, but then …
ARAL SEAARAL SEA
Aral Sea 1989 - 2005Aral Sea 1989 - 2005
The Shrinking Aral SeaThe Shrinking Aral Sea
Aral Sea CrisisAral Sea Crisis
12 x maximum permitted DDT 3/4 of people suffer from illness 70 % of fishermen are pre-cancerous5 x death rate of former Soviet republics
… the environmental costs are so high that they go beyond the economic capacity of the newly independent republics in Central Asia.
- The World Bank
Recent Water Recent Water BalanceBalance
E
E
P
P
Inflow
Inflow
Northern Aral Sea
Southern Aral Sea
Syr Darya
Amu Darya
Will it dry up completely?
Why or why not?
Aral Sea Basin States:Aral Sea Basin States:Some StatisticsSome Statistics
Does this allocation seem fair to you?
Why or why not?
Aral Sea Basin Flows (1989 – Aral Sea Basin Flows (1989 – 2000)2000)
Can irrigated agriculture be sustained while minimizing environmental impacts?
Water used in irrigation
Finding the Aral Sea
Finding the Aral Sea - 2
The Boats
Can you say “Gydro-uzel”?
KazakhstanKazakhstan
AlmatyAlmaty(where we lived)(where we lived)
Astana - Ice CityAstana - Ice City
Syr Darya BasinSyr Darya Basin
Transboundary Water Resources:Transboundary Water Resources:
Upstream – KyrgyzstanUpstream – Kyrgyzstan
Water for electricity (heating) needed in winterWater for electricity (heating) needed in winter
Downstream – UzbekistanDownstream – Uzbekistan
Water for irrigation needed in summerWater for irrigation needed in summer
Who should get the water? When?How can these needs be balanced?
Syr Darya BasinSyr Darya Basin
Water
Coal
Natural Gas
Ag Prod.
Ag Prod.Keep
Warm!
Water
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyz Fuel AvailabilityKyrgyz Fuel Availability
USSR Breakup
Toktogul ReservoirToktogul Reservoir
Toktogul Reservoir 1988-Toktogul Reservoir 1988-20002000
Some Kyrgyz Sights
A computer lab in a Kyrgyz School
Bazarbai Mambetov
Central Asia Central Asia Water & Energy Round TableWater & Energy Round Table
USAID supportedUSAID supportedWater and energy representatives ofWater and energy representatives of
Kyrgyzstran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
Created by Governments to Created by Governments to Develop treaty on Syr DayraDevelop treaty on Syr Dayra
Develop country positions on issuesDevelop country positions on issuesServe interests of all countries equallyServe interests of all countries equally
Identify directions agreeable to all countriesIdentify directions agreeable to all countriesObtain advocacy for activities within each countryObtain advocacy for activities within each country
Bring work to attention of PresidentsBring work to attention of Presidents
Tajikistan
TurkmenistanTurkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Amirkhan Kenshimov
The FutureThe Future
Any Questions?Any Questions?
No cameras allowed!KGB museum, Moscow, June 2000