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PolZgdopUp|ii
Bklzgebu Kmyl pm Kbuu E|upmkgbpgmfIL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s POL ZGDOP UP\II
Gf H|cw 2704# mf ~mpbpm iglc u :> kgclu izmk
Kbfobppbf#Tgcc gbk Clygpp ~gmfllzl` pol
kbuu ~zm`|epgmf mi biimz`bjcl omklu&
Ybzgbpgmfu gf pol 24#044 om|ulu tlzl kgfmz1
lbeo ob ptm jl zmmku# b jbpo# cgygfd
zmmk bf` agpeolf mf b 4+ur|bzl+immp
emfezlpl ucbj& Jw upbf`bz ggfd pol |fgpu#
Clygpp lylfp|bccw tbu bjcl pm ~|p |~ kmzl
pobf ptm mlf b bw# olc~gfd igcc pol lfmz+
km|u ~muptbz `lkbf & Mylz pol wlbzu#
gff|klzbjcl eobfdlu pm pol omklu obyl
pzbfuimzkl pol emkk|fgpw& J|p lylf fmt#
Clygppmtf zlkbgfu b agf` mi uomzpobf` imz
pol ubklfluu mi kbuu ~zm`|epgmf pobpu
upbzpgfd pm dgyl tbw pm kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf&
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B Clpplz izmk pol zlug lfp & & & & & & & & & & 2
Pol Zgdop Up|ii8 BklzgebuKmyl pm Kbuu E|upmkgbpgmf & & & & & & & & 5
Jbfa Lxle|pgylu bf`
Ulfgmz Kbfbdlklfp & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & :4
Jmbz`u mi @gzlepmzu & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & :?
Miigelzu bf` B`ygumzw Em|fegcu & & & & & & 5>
Igfbfegbc Upbplklfpu & & & & & & & & & & & & & & 55
Fmplu pm Igfbfegbc Upbplklfpu & & & & & & & 54
Ymc|kl mi M~lzbpgmfu & & & & & & & & & & & & & & 0?
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mz
B CLPPLZ IZMK POL ^ZLUG@LFP
Tolf G |ul kw zlkmpl alw pm |fcmea Jgd Zl # gp b|pm+
kbpgebccw b`h|upu pol ulbp bf` kgzzmzu imz kl& Tolf
kw tgil# U|bffl# |ulu olz zlkmpl# gp mlu pol ubkl
imz olz& Gu pogu b dzlbp em|fpzw mz tobp=
Umklomt tl tlzl bjcl pm dlp jw jlimzl pogu emf+
ylfglfel# j|p cgil gu u|zlcw utllplz fmt& Tl kbw ubyl
mfcw 2> mz 2< ulemf`u# j|p# olw# pomul ulemf`u b` |~&
Pol mc tbw klp m|z fll`u# j|p pol flt tbw
kllpu polk jlpplz& Pobpu tobp m|z bff|bc zl~mzp
luubw gu bjm|p pogu wlbz8 pol ~mtlz mi flt pleofmcmdw
pm e|upmkgl m|z ~zm`|epu& Pogfdu |ul pm jl kb`l pm
mz`lz bf kb`l pm igp& J|p polw tlzl cbjmz+gfplfugyl
bf lx~lfugyl& Kbuu ~zm`|epgmf ebkl bcmfd bf`
kb`l pogfdu kmzl biimz`bjcl# j|p bp b emuppol emup
mi ubklfluu# pol emup mi mfl+ugl+igpu+bcc&
Pleofmcmdw gu jldgffgfd pm clp |u obyl gp jmpo
tbwu& Gfezlbugfdcw# tlzl dlppgfd kmzl ~lzumfbcgb+
pgmf bp kbuu+~zm`|epgmf ~zgelu& Tlzl kmygfd pmtbz`
kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf& Pobpu pol kluubdl mi m|z luubw&
G om~l wm| lfhmw gp&c
Pol lemfmkw h|up igfguol bfmpolz zlkbzabjcl wlbz mi zb~g dzmtpo# ibccgfd |flk~cmw
klfp bf `lecgfgfd gficbpgmf& @mfp ubw G `g`fp plcc wm| um& Olzlu tobp G ubg gf pogu u~bel
cbup wlbz8
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dzlt bckmup 0 ~lzelfp# lk~cmwklfp tbu |~ 5&: kgccgmf# |flk~cmwklfp ilcc pm 0&4 ~lzelfp bf`
pol Emfu|klz zgel Gf`lx gfezlbul` mfcw 2&4 ~lzelfp& Pol jlup ~lzimzkbfel gf wlbzu gf jmpo
|flk~cmwklfp bf` gficbpgmf clip kbfw cluu m~pgkgupge um|cu uezbpeogfd polgz olb`u& Tl# omt+
lylz# lx~lep kmzl mi pol ubkl gf 277?&
Omt ecmul tbu G pm pol kbza= Tlcc# zlbc D@ dzlt mylz 0 ~lzelfp cbup wlbz# lk~cmwklf
tbu |~ :&? kgccgmf# |flk~cmwklfp ilcc pm 0&5 ~lzelfp bf` pol Emfu|klz zgel Gf`lx zmul
mfcw 2&9 ~lzelfp & Mfel bdbgf# b uplccbz ~lzimzkbfel& Cluu m~pgkgupge um|cu bzl upgcc uezbpeo
gfd polgz olb`u&@bzl G ~zl gep kmzl mi pol ubkl imz 2777= Tow fmp= Bu Pmk Tmcil kgdop obyl kl ubw
clpu clp pol zl` `md mii pol clbuo&
G lx~lep zlbc dzmtpo gf 2777 pm jlfligp bdbgf izmk pleofmcmdw+`zgylf gk~zmylklfpu gf
~zm`|epgygpw# togeo zmul kmzl pobf : ~lzelfp cbup wlbz& G bcum lx~lep pol dcmjbc `licbpgmf
bzw lfygzmfklfp pm emkjgfl tgpo upzmfd dzmtpo gf ~zm`|epgygpw bf` zlbc m|p~|p pm omc`
`mtf gficbpgmf& Gk fmp ubwgfd pobp gficbpgmf tgcc zlkbgf cmt lu~gpl upzmfd zlbc dzmtpo1 Gk
ubwgfd gp tgcc zlkbgf cmt gf ~bzp jleb|ul mi upzmfd zlbc dzmtpo& Gi gficbpgmf zlu|cpu izmk pm
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
k|eo kmflw eobugfd pmm ilt dmm`u# kmzl dmm`u tgcc olc~ bu k|eo
bu ucmtlz kmflw dzmtpo& Pol jmppmk cgfl tgcc jl zlbc dzmtpo gf pol
50 ~lzelfp zbfdl# tgpo gficbpgmf zlkbgfgfd jlcmt : ~lzelfp&
G `mfp jlcglyl gf u~ll cgkgpu mf pol lemfmkw mz b upbjcl FBGZ\
/fmfbeelclzbpgfd gficbpgmf zbpl mi |flk~cmwklfp' & Bf` Gk elzpbgfcw
fmp b ^ogccg~u e|zylz tom jlcglylu gficbpgmf bf` |flk~cmwklfp bzl mf b
ullubt tolzl mfl dmlu `mtf mfcw tolf pol mpolz dmlu |~& G ebfp u|~+
~mzp kw m~pgkguk tgpo um~ogupgebpl km`lcu# j|p G `m miilz bu lyg`lfel
pol lemfmkw gpulci& Bu Wmdg Jlzzb obu ubg # Wm| ebf mjulzyl b cmp h|up jw
tbpeogfd& Gk bcum zlkgf`l mi bf mc Zgeobz zwmz cgfl8 Tom bzl wm|
dmgfd pm jlcglyl= Kl mz wm|z mtf cwgfd lwlu= Imz pol ~bup pozll wlbzu
pol lemfmkw Gyl jllf tbpeogfd obu dzmtf bp tobp kmup km`lcu tm|c`
emfug`lz |fu|upbgfbjcl zbplu togcl gficbpgmf obu `lecgfl` zbpolz pobf
gfezlbul`&
G pogfa b im|zpo wlbz cgal pol cbup pozll gu ~muugjcl# j|p tl `m ibel
umkl |f~clbubfp lk~cmwklfp bzgpoklpge& Pol ~bup pozll wlbzu obyl
jlfligpl` izmk dzmtpo gf jmpo ~zm`|epgygpw /kmzl m|p~|p ~lz om|z
tmzal`' bf` pol cbjmz u|~~cw /kmzl om|zu tmzal`' & @lecgfgfd |flk+
~cmwklfp `|zgfd pomul wlbzu klbfu tl tlzl `zbtgfd `mtf pol bybgc+
bjcl cbjmz ~mmc& Tgpo |flk~cmwklfp bp 0&5 ~lzelfp# tgpo cbjmz+imzel
~bzpgeg~bpgmf mylz 94 ~lzelfp bf` `guem|zbdl` tmzalzu /~lm~cl tom
cgal b hmj gi polw pom|dop gp ~muugjcl' bp b zlemz cmt# tl kbw igfbccw z|f
m|p mi ucbea gf pol cbjmz kbzalp& Gi um# ~zm`|epgygpw tgcc obyl pm gfezlbul
lylf ibuplz imz pol zlelfp dzmtpo zbpl pm emfpgf|l& Mi em|zul# ~zm`|e+pgygpw dzmtpo bf` pol f|kjlz mi bybgcbjcl tmzalzu bzl zlcbpl`# ugfel
k|eo mi pol emfumcg`bpgmf bf` `mtfuggfd |f`lzpbalf pm kbal emk~b+
fglu kmzl liigeglfp izllu |~ cbjmz imz mpolz |ulu&
Emfdzluu em|c olc~ kbal kw m~pgkgupge uelfbzgm b zlbcgpw jw pbagfd
ptm lbuw upl~u pm jmcuplz m|z tmzaimzel& Kw igzup zlemkklf`bpgmf gu pm
bjmcguo pol lbzfgfdu plup mf Umegbc Ule|zgpw jlfligpu pm kbal ~bzp+pgkl
tmza kmzl bp pzbepgyl imz lx~lzglfel` zlpgzllu& Kw mpolz u|ddlupgmf gu pm
lbul cgkgpu mf gkkgdzbpgmf mi imzlgdf tmzalzu tgpo pol l`|ebpgmf bf`
uagccu pm jl ~zm`|epgyl gkkl`gbplcw& Tl fll kmzl dmm ~lm~cl& Togcl
tlzl bp i|cc lk~cmwklfp gu pol pgkl pm `m gp&c
Pol \&U& lemfmkw ~lzimzkl tlcc cbup wlbz `lu~gpl pol Bugbf igfbf
egbc ezgugu& Gf ibep# |fpgc pol Z|uugbf lib|cp gf B|d|up# cbzdl ~bzpu mi m|
lemfmkw jlfligpl izmk pol icgdop mi eb~gpbc pm pol \fgpl Upbplu& Pob
eobfdl biplz pol Z|uugbf `lib|cp# omtlylz# bf m|z igfbfegbc kbzalp
jlebkl |fulppcl` gf Ul~plkjlz bf` lbzcw Mepmjlz# ~zmk~pgfd pol Il` p
lbul ~mcgew gf pozll ukbcc upl~u& Igfbfegbc kbzalpu zlp|zfl` pm flbz fmz
kbc# bf pol mylzbcc \&U& lemfmkw fmp mfcw zlkbgfl zmj|up j|p ~geal
|~ upzlfdpo gf pol im|zpo r|bzplz&
Bcpom|do pol \&U& lemfmkw obu `mfl tlcc imz ulylzbc wlbzu# pol
Lclylfpo @gupzgep obu `mfl lylf jlpplz# bu klbu|zl` jw lk~cmwklf
dzmtpo& @|zgfd 277?# omtlylz# @gupzgep lk~cmwklfp dzmtpo ucmtl p
pol fbpgmfbc zbpl gf pol ibel mi olb` tgf`u u~btfl` jw cmt mgc ~zgelu
togeo biilepl` jmpo ~zm`|elzu bf` lx~mzpu pm Klxgembf` j
`l~zluul` emk~|plz eog~ ~zgelu& Bdzge|cp|zl bcum tbu obz` ogp& Gf
zlelfp wlbzu# bf gfic|x mi tmzalzu olc~l` all~ zldgmfbc lk~cmwklf
dzmtpo bjmyl pol fbpgmfbc ~bel# j|p pgdop cbjmz kbzalpu fbpgmftg`
fbzzmtl` pogu b`ybfpbdl |zgfd 277?&
Jbfau gf pol @gupzgep zlkbgf tlcc eb~gpbcgl`# cgr|g` bf` ~zmigpbjcl
Cmbf `lkbf` obu zlkbgfl` upzmfd& Plxbu jbfalzu tlzl ub``lfl`
bp pol cmuu mi m|z izglf` Jmj Obzzgu# ~zlug`lfp mi pol Plxbu Jbfalz
Buumegbpgmf& Tl kguu ogk ylzw k|eo&
@lkbf imz pol @bccbu Il`u igfbfegbc ulzygelu emfpgf|lu pm j
upzmfd mylzbcc& 277? ubt gfezlbulu gf eolea bf ebuo ymc|kl bu tlc
bu b|pmkbpl` eclbzgfdom|ul bf` i|f`u pzbfuilz ymc|kl& Polul dbgfolc~l |u gk~zmyl ~zm`|epgygpw bf liigeglfew& Tl zlemylzl pol emup m
m|z ~zgel ulzygelu `|zgfd 277?&
Pol @bccbu Il `lympl emfug`lzbjcl bpplfpgmf pm W:A cbup wlbz& J
kg`wlbz pol Il`u ezgp gebc uwuplku tlzl W:A emk~cgbfp# bf jbfa
jldbf plupgfd polgz lclepzmfge gfplzibelu tgpo |u& Bcc kgclupmflu bzl
jlgfd klp& Bu plupgfd emfpgf|lu gf 2777# tl tgcc bcum igfbcgl m|z emf
pgfdlfew ~cbfu& Gf b``gpgmf pm m|z mtf uwuplku bf` lclepzmfge emffle
pgmfu pm igfbfegbc gfupgp|pgmfu# m|z lxbkgflzu obyl jllf mylzullgfd pol
W:A ~zl~bzbp gmfu mi pol jbfau bf` omc`gfd emk~bfglu |f`lz m|z h|zgu
`gepgmf& Ygzp|bccw bcc bzl kllpgfd polgz kgclupmflu bf` bzl mf pzbea& Gpolzl bzl ugdfgigebfp ~zmjclku tgpo pol elfp|zw zmccmylz# tl `mf
lx~lep polk pm mzgdgfbpl gf pol jbfagfd uwuplk&
Zmjlzp @& KePllz# Hz&
^zlug`lfp bf Eogli Lxle|pgyl Miigelz
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
Olfzw Imz`u igzup dzlbp emfpzgj|pgmf pm Bklzgeb tbu
pol Km`lc P# togeo zmccl mii pol buulkjcw cgflu bp
ogu Ogdocbf` bza# Kgeogdbf# ~cbfp bp pol zbpl mi mfllylzw :0 ulemf`u& Bp pol pgkl# gp tbu bf bkbgfd `gu+
~cbw mi gf`|upzgbc liigeglfew& Jw upzlbkcgfgfd b|pm+
kbpgmf gf ogu ibepmzglu# Imz` b`ybfel` bf lzb mi
kbuu ~zm`|epgmf pobp j|gcp ogu imzp|fl bf` jzm|dop
pol b|pmkmjgcl tgpogf zlbeo mi bf lklzdgfd kg``cl
ecbuu& J|p togcl pol kgzbecl mi kbuu ~zm`|epgmf
`lcgylzl pol dmm`u# gp `g`fp b`b~p lbugcw# um bcc
Km`lc Pu cmmal bcgal& Imz`u b~~zmbeo ebf jl
u|kkl` |~ gf tobp ol ubg` bjm|p pol ebzu lxplzgmz8
Pol emfu|klz ebf obyl bfw emcmz ol tbfpu um cmfd
bu gpu jcbea&
Imz`u pbal+gp+mz+clbyl+gp bppgp|`l tm|c`fp e|p gp
gf pm`bwu lemfmkw& Bklzgebfu bzl jcluul`umkl
kgdop ubw mylztolckl`jw bf lylz+lx~bf`gfd
ybzglpw mi dmm`u bf ulzygelu& /Ull Lxogjgpu 2 bf :&'
H|up ugfel pol lbzcw 274>u# polzlu jllf bf lx~cmugmf
mi eomgel gf pol kbzalp~cbel pol buumzpklfp mi
flt ylogecl km`lcu obu zgulf izmk 20> pm :9># umip
`zgfau izmk :> pm kmzl pobf ?4# PYeobfflcu izmk
< pm 2?> jllzu# 2#240 bk|ulklfp ~bzau# 50> agf`u mi
jzlbaibup elzlbc# jzbf`u mi jmppcl tbplz& Tomcl
kgca ugpu mf pol u|~lzkbzalp uolci jlug`l uagk kgca#
obci+~lzelfp# 2 ~lzelfp# : ~lzelfp# cbepmul+zl`|el`#
omzkmfl+izll# eomemcbpl# j|pplzkgca bf` kgca tgpo b
uolci cgil mi ugx kmfpou& Pm`bwu emfu|klzu obyl
beeluu pm kmzl jmma pgpclu# kmzl kmyglu bf kmzl
kbdbgflu& Imz`u emk~bfw upgcc kbalu jcbea ebzu
imz j|wlzu tom tbfp polk# j|p gp bcum miilzu b ~bclppl
mi 09 mpolz emcmzu pmzlb`mz zl`# hbcb~lm dzllf#
Bpcbfpge jc|l# kmeob izmup# b|p|kf mzbfdl# plbc bf`
kmzl&
Pogu ~zmcgilzbpgmf mi ~zm`|epu# km`lcu bf` upwclu
gufp eb~gpbcguk z|f bkma& Ybzglpw uom|c`fp jl `gu+
kguul bu b pzgygbc lxpzbybdbfel& Gpu b tlbcpow#
um~ogupgebpl umeglpwu tbw mi gk~zmygfd pol cmp mi
emfu|klzu& Pol kmzl eomgelu# pol jlpplz& B tg`l
ulclepgmf mi dmm`u bf` ulzygelu gfezlbulu pol eobfel
PolZgdopUp|ii Bklzgebu Kmyl pm Kbuu E|upmkgbpgmf
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Lxogjgp 28 KMZL EOMGELU POBF LYLZ
Bklzgebfu ogupmzgebc j|wgfd ~bpplzfu uomt b dzmtgfd ~lfeobfp imz ybzglpw& Pm kbzalp ecmu+
lz bf` ecmulz pm e|upmklzu gf`gyg`|bc pbuplu# j|ugfluu obu gfezlbugfdcw lueoltl` pol ~bz+
b`gdk mi kbuu ~zm`|epgmf# gf umkl ebulu ygzp|bccw icmm`gfd pol kbzalp tgpo b ~zmi|ugmf mi
eomgel& Pm`bwu bpoclplu# imz lxbk~cl# ebf eommul izmk kmzl pobf :?< km`lcu mi z|ffgfd
uomlu /294 klfu bf` 22? tmklfu'# |~ izmk h|up igyl /|fgulx' km`lcu gf 274>& Kmzl pobf
5#>>> buumzpl` jllzu bzl bybgcbjcl pm lfhmw togcl u|zigfd 2?< `giilzlfp PY eobfflcu& Ogu+
pmzgebc `bpb mf ~zm`|ep ybzglpw bzl u|z~zgugfdcw obz` pm igf`# j|p tobpu polzl plccu bf |fbk+
jgd|m|u pbcl8 pm`bwu zgeolz emfu|klzu ulla pm lx~zluu polkulcylu pozm|do kmzl eomgel&
Gplk Lbzcw 4>u Cbpl 7>u
Ylogecl km`lcu 20> :9>
Ylogecl upwclu 9 0>>
Umiptbzl pgpclu > :#>>>
Tlj ugplu > 0#4
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>
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YBZGLPW MF POL ZGUL
Upbpgupgegbfu emcclep zlbku mi
`bpb mf pol r|bfpgpw mi dmm`u
bf` ulzygelu gf pol lemfmkw
j|p cgppcl mf ~zm`|ep ybzglpw& Pol
ilt upbpgupgeu pobp ebf jl im|f`
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polkl8 Bklzgeb ebzlu bjm|p
eomgel& Tl tbfpbf` tlzl
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kmyglu# bk|ulklfp ~bzau#
l`|ebpgmfbc gfupgp|pgmfu# jmmau#kbdbgflu bf` bgz~mzpu# pm
fbkl h|up b ilt&
IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
lbeo mi |u tgcc igf # umkltolzl bkmfd bcc pol
uolcylu bf` uomtzmmku# ~zm`|epu pobp kllp m|z
zlr|gzlklfpu& /Ull Lxogjgpu 5# 0 bf`
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27?> 277?
Om|ulomc` gplku 0>> 2#>>2
Lxbk~clu
Cb|f`zw umb~u# lplzdlfpu 2: 0?
b~lz pmtlcu# fb~agfu 22 2:9
@lm`mzglzu# bgz izluolflzu yu&277?
Pol e|upmklz gu bctbwu zgdop# lylf tolf ol eobfdlu ogu kgf`& J|ug+fluulu zlizluo polgz uolcylu tgpo pom|ubf`u mi flt ~zm`|epu bff|bccw pm
all~ ~bel tgpo emfu|klzu eobfdgfd pbuplu& Tolpolz gpu b jmppcl mi
bu~gzgf mz gj|~zmilf# b ugx+~bea mi ^l~ug mz b 0?+m|fel jmppcl# b jbd mi
jbzjle|l+icbymzl` eog~u mz z|iicl` mflu# zlpbgclzu em`l bf` pzbea polk
bu uolci+all~gfd |fgpu /UA\u'& Bf` tgpo lbeo flt ybzgbpgmf# j|ugfluu+
lu om~l pm jzgfd ~zm`|epu ecmulz pm tobp emfu|klzu tbfp& Gf emfu|klz
~beabdl` dmm`u bcmfl# pol f|kjlz mi UA\u gfpzm`|el` gf 277?
zlbeol` flbzcw :>># |~ izmk h|up 0#020 gf 27?>& Kbfw flt ~zm`|epu
|f`m|jpl`cw ibgc# j|p kbfw zlkbgfbu cmfd bu emfu|klzu tbfp polk&
^bzb`mxgebccw# pol fbpgmfu beem|fpu mi lemfmkge bepgygpw pbccw mfcw pol
r|bfpgpw mi dmm`u ~zm`|el` bf` dgyl fm ezl`gp imz omt b`l~p j|ugfluu
gu bp imccmtgfd Bklzgebu uogipgfd pbuplu&
27?> 277?
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Lxbk~clu
Klbcu# lfpzlu 2
Eog~u 09 299Emmaglu 2:4 579
Gel ezlbk# fmylcpglu# izmlf wmd|zp
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Lxogjgp 08 ^ZM@\EP YBZGLPW BP \&U& DZMELZW UPMZLU
Mfl mi eb~gpbcguku dzlbplup ezlbpgmfu gu pol dzmelzw upmzl& Tolzl lcul ebf
wm| igf`# tgpogf h|up b ilt upl~u# um kbfw ~zm`|epu bp u|eo biimz`bjcl
~zgelu= Jbfbfbu izmk Le|b`mz# agtg iz|gp izmk Flt Xlbcbf`# ~mpbpmlu izmk
G`bom# tgfl izmk Izbfel# ~b~zgab izmk O|fdbzw# emiill izmk Emcmkjgb#
mzbfdlu izmk Icmzg`b# igck izmk Hb~bf bf` k|eo kmzl& Gpu fmp ~|jcge
`lezll pobp clpu |u pb~ pol tmzc`u kbzalpu gf b ugfdcl uom~~gfd pzg~& Gpu
pol ~zmigp kmpgyl mi Bklzgebf j|ugfluu& Wm| tbfp gp& Wm| dmp gp" gu pol ge+
pbpl mi emk~lpgpgmf# togeo obu ~|p |~tbz`u mi ::#>>> kmzl gplku mf dzm+
elzu uolcylu gf h|up pol ~bup lgdop wlbzu& Pol bylzbdl ~zm`|ep ulclepgmf bp
emfylfpgmfbc dzmelzw upmzlu /pomul tgpo b i|cc cgfl mi dzmelzglu# klbp bf`
~zm`|el' gfezlbul` izmk 20#>>> gf 27?7 pm :>#>>> gf 27741 pol ulclepgmf
bp u|~lzupmzlu /polw b`` fmfimm` gplku bf` bzl 0>#>>> ur|bzl illp mz
kmzl' tbu |~ izmk ::#>>> pm 5>#>>>& Bp imm`-`z|d emkjmu /pomul tgpo b
~obzkbew |f`lz pol ubkl zmmi'# b upbddlzgfd #>>> `giilzlfp gplku bzl
fmt tgpogf zlbeo mi pol `guelzfgfd uom~~lz&
IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
~zmyg`lu kmzl mi tobp tl `m tbfp jw e|upmkggfd
~zm`|epu pm m|z ~bzpge|cbz pbuplu& Gp lcgkgfbplu tobp
tl mfp tbfp pozm|do ~zlylfpgyl ~zm`|epu& Ybeegflu#eogc`~zmmi eb~u# ubilpw dlbz mf ebzu bf` bfpg~mcc|pgmf
`lygelu bzl ybc|bjcl imz pol kguimzp|flu polw bylzp&
^zlylfpgyl dmm`u bf` ulzygelu bzl miplf pbalf imz
dzbfpl`|fpgc polwzl fll`l`& Polw zbgul cgygfd
upbf`bz`u jw zl~cbegfd pzlbpklfp tgpo gkk|fgpw#
zl~bgz tgpo ubilz `lugdf# olc~gfd ~zmplep emfu|klzu
izmk umkl mi cgilu pzbdl`glu&
Pol zgeo obyl bctbwu lfhmwl pol c|x|zw mi e|upmk+
kb`l ~zm`|epu& Fmt# pom|do# ~lzumfbcgl dmm`u bf`
ulzygelu bzl gfezlbugfdcw tgpogf pol j|`dlpu mi kg`+
`cl+ecbuu emfu|klzu& Emk~|plzu# pol Gfplzflp# @FB
zlulbzeo bf mpolz pleofmcmdglu bzl imzdgfd b tomcl
flt ~bzb`gdk pobp kbalu ~muugjcl pol `lcgylzw mi
e|upmk+`lugdfl` ~zm`|epu pm pol kbuulubp lylz
cmtlz ~zgelu& Pol `luezg~pgyl ~ozbul imz pol ~olfmk+
lfmf gu kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf& Mfel wm| afmt lxbepcw
tobp wm| tbfp# wm|cc jl bjcl pm dlp gp h|up pobp tbw#
ubwu Jgcc Dbplu# im|f`lz mi umiptbzl dgbfp Kgezmumip&
Emk~|plzu tgcc lfbjcl dmm`u pobp pm`bw bzl kbuu
~zm`|el` pm jl jmpo kbuu ~zm`|el` bf` e|upmk+
kb`l imz ~bzpge|cbz e|upmklzu&Pol lemfmkwu ~zmdzluugmf pm e|upmkgbpgmf gufp b
ib`& Gp bzgulu izmk pol izll kbzalpu zlclfpcluu `zgyl
pm jzgfd tobp tl j|w ecmulz pm tobp tl tbfp& Tobp
tl j|w wglc`u b cmp kmzl |pgcgpw tolf gp lxbepcw
kbpeolu m|z fll`u# bf` Bklzgebfu bzl zlb~gfd lfmz+
km|u jlfligpu bu flt pmmcu olc~ j|ugfluu ebplz pm
kbzalpu mi mfl& Tlzl dlppgfd kmzl imz cluu# olc~gfd
all~ gficbpgmf gf eolea&
Polzlu h|up mfl dcgpeo gf pogu mpolztgul ulzlf`g~g+
pm|u upmzw8 pzb`gpgmfbc klbu|zlu mi pol lemfmkw kbw
fmp zliclep omt k|eo m|z cgygfd upbf`bz`u bzl
gk~zmygfd& Emfelgyl gf bf lzb mi kbuu ~zm`|epgmf#
pol fbpgmfu D@ bf ~zm`|epgygpw upbpgupgeu kbw bjcw
em|fp kmzl up|ii# j|p polw dgyl cgppcl ezl`gp imz zgdop
up|ii& Kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf bf` ~zlylfpgmfh|up cgal
ybzglpw`lcgylz polgz dbgfu gf gk~mzpbfp j|p u|jpcl
tbwu# um dzmuu `mklupge ~zm`|ep bf ~zm`|epgygpw
upbpgupgeu ibgc pm eb~p|zl pol lxplfp mi m|z ~zmdzluu&
Bylzbdl f|kjlz mi gplku /gf pom|ubf`u'
>
2>
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0>
9>
Imm`-` z|d emkjmU|~lzupmzlEmfylfpgmfbc
2774
2775
27?7
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
10/52
277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
IMZ POL I\P\ZL#
POL JLUP MI POL ^BUP
H|up bu kbuu ~zm`|epgmf tbu pol obcckbza mi wluplz
`bwu Gf`|upzgbc Bdl# kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf ~zmkgulu
pm `mkgfbpl pol km`lzf upbdl mi Bklzgebu lem
fmkge lymc|pgmfpol Gfimzkbpgmf Bdl& Flt lzbu# m
em|zul# `mfp bzzgyl mylzfgdop& Polw lklzdl ucmtcw
bf` gfezlklfpbccw bu polw mylzcb~ tgpo pol mc`# pba
gfd wlbzu bf` lylf `leb`lu pm pzbfuimzk pol lemfm
kw& Lylf um# tlzl bczlb`w ullgfd fmpltmzpow kmylu
pm kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf&
Emk~|plzu& @lcc Emk~|plz mi Zm|f Zmea# Plxbu
obu ~zmylf pobp emk~clx kbf|ibep|zl` ~zm`|epu ebf
jl kb`l pm mz`lz& \ugfd pol plcl~omfl mz pol Gfplz
flp# e|upmklzu luezgjl pol emk~|plz polw tbfp# pol
uob~l mi pol ebjgflp bf` ugl mi pol kmfgpmz uezllf
pol u~ll mi pol kgezm~zmeluumz# pol eb~begpw mi pol
Lxogjgp >
:? `bwu# :? `giilzlfp e|gugflu8 $2?4&54
Tl bcc k|up lbp pm u|zygyl& J|p togcl b ~mmz fbpgmf upz|ddclu pm igf` zgel# emzf mz
jzlb`# b zgeo mfl miilzu kwzgb` tbwu pm ~bzpbal gf pol ~clbu|zlu mi pol ~bcbpl&
Tolf gp emklu pm lbpgfd m|p# ybzglpw gu lfmzkm|u# bf` gp u~gelu |~ m|z `gf+
gfd lx~lzglfel& Umkl mi |u cgal Pobg e|gugfl& Umkl mi |u ~zlilz Gpbcgbf& B emf+
u|klz tom ezbylu Pobg tmfp lfhmw `gfgfd bu k|eo gi ogu eomgel emklu `mtf
pm ~gb mz ~bupb& Pol @bccbuImzp Tmzpo bzlbu Wlccmt ^bdlu cgupu pom|ubf`u mi
zlupb|zbfpub emzf|em~gb mi e|gugflu# bkjglfelu# ~zgelu bf` cmebpgmfu&
Tlbcpow umeglpglu `mfp h|up pbal ~zmdzluu gf pol imzk mi kmzl dmm`u bf`
ulzygelu& Polw tbfp r|bcgpw# emfylfglfel bf` ybzglpw& Wlp fbpgmfbc D@^ bf`
~zm`|epgygpw upbpgupgeu `mfp dlflzbccw zlemdfgl pol dbgfu& Ptlfpw+lgdop `bwu
u~lfp lbpgfd e|gugflu izmk bzm|f` pol tmzc` em|fpu pol ubkl bu :? `bwu u~lfp
lbpgfd h|up j|zdlzu bf` izglu&
E|gugfl Zlupb|zbfp ^zgel
? Lfdcguo Pol Cmf`mflz $
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
11/52
IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
obz `zgyl& Mpolz eomgelu gfymcyl alwjmbz`u# km|u+
lu# yg`lm ebz`u# km lku# u~lbalzu# `bpb+upmzbdl uwu+
plku bf umiptbzl& Pol f|kjlz mi ~muugjcl emkjgfb+
pgmfu gu upbddlzgfdbckmup 29 kgccgmf imz `luapm~
km`lcu bcmfl& @lcc jldgfu buulkjcgfd b emk~|plz
mfcw biplz gp zlelgylu bf mz`lz bf` polf uog~u pol igf+
guol` ~zm`|ep `gzlepcw pm pol e|upmklzu omkl mz
j|ugfluu tgpogf b ilt `bwu& Dbpltbw :>>># Kgezmf
Pleofmcmdw bf Emk~br Emk~|plz bcum kbal emk+
~|plzu pm e|upmklzu lxbep u~legigebpgmfu&
Ecmpogfd& Mii+pol+zbea b~~bzlc obu bctbwu emkl gf
kbfw uglu# upwclu bf emcmzu# j|p kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf
~zmkgulu b ~lzilep kbpeo imz lbeo j|wlzu igp bf`
pbupl& Emfflepge|pu GfplzBepgyl E|upmk Ecmpolu ulccu
hlbfu mylz pol Gfplzflp# bccmtgfd e|upmklzu pm u~leg+
iw og~ ugl# cld bf ulbp zmmk# ibjzge# emcmz# pozlb`
beelfpu# cld ugcom|lppl# icw `lugdf# ~mealp upwcl# j|p+
pmfu# zgylpu bf` lylf cbjlc& Pol ~bfpu bzl ~zm`|el` pm
lxbep u~legigebpgmfu bp b Flt Wmza ibepmzw& @gdgpml# b
Tbuogfdpmf emk~bfw# |ulu b uebfflz pm klbu|zl
lylzw kgccgklplz mi e|upmklzu illp imz e|upmk+kb`l
uomlu& \ugfd ogu emk~|plzgl kmjgcl igppgfd |fgp#
Bcbf Xlzmjfgea `gdgpglu lbeo immpu `gklfugmfu
fm kbpplz pol ugl mz uob~lbf` j|gc u b pozll+
`gklfugmfbc uoml cbup bzm|f togeo bfw upwcl ebf jl
kmc`l` imz b ~lzilep igp& Mz`lzu bzl uog~~l` gf pozll
pm im|z tllau& Zlmz`lzu zlr|gzl mfcw b ~omfl ebcc&
Lfplzpbgfklfp bf` gfimzkbpgmf& K|uge j|iiu tom
tbfpl` pm olbz polgz ibymzgpl umfdu mfel ob` pm j|w
`mlfu mi emk~bep gueu& Fmt# E@|epgyl# b Flt Wmza
emk~bfw# kbgfpbgfu bf Gfplzflp ugpl tgpo um|f`
jgplu izmk bjm|p 2>#>>> pgpclu& E|upmklzu ulclep b
`mlf e|pu pm jl j|zfl` mfpm b E@ bf` uog~~l` pm
polgz mmz&
E|gugfl Zlupb|zbfp ^zgel
:: Zmkbfgbf Ebi Bpolfll $9&7 fltu um|zelu pm
`lcgylz zld|cbz zl~mzpu mf e|zzlfp lylfpu# u~mzpu#
tlbpolz bf` igfbfel# bcc dlbzl pm pol gf`gyg |bc
zlb`lz& Jzmb`ebup&emk# b # jgmeog~u kbal pol
~zmeluu ~lzumfbc& Polw dgyl `mepmzu gfimzkbpgmf mf
lbeo ~bpglfpu kl`gebc emf`gpgmf&^ogcb`lc~ogbu Be|kgf ulccu eb~u|clu e|upmkgl`
tgpo u~legige ygpbkgfu bf` `mubdlu imz lbeo e|u
pmklz# e|ppgfd pol f|kjlz mi ~gccu umkl ~lm~cl utbc+
cmt gf b `bw& B`ybfelu gf ecmfgfd pleofmcmdw bzl
bccmtgfd `mepmzu pm pbal b uagf ubk~cl bf` zl~zm
`|el b ~bpglfpu mtf emccbdlf elccu& Gfhlepgmfu mi pol
elccu ebf ukmmpo tzgfaclu bf` uebzu tgpom|p zgua m
bcclzdge zlbepgmf&
Gf mfl gf`|upzw biplz bfmpolz# emk~bfglu bzl e|u
pmkggfd imz pol kbuu kbzalp& Polwzl `mgfd gp
jleb|ul flt pleofmcmdglu kbal gp ~zbepgebc bf` emk
~lpgpgmf kbalu gp gk~lzbpgyl& I|p|zgup Bcygf Pmiiclz
tom ~zl gepl pol emkgfd mi kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf gf
pol 274>u# zlelfpcw guu|l` b uplzf tbzfgfd pm ~zm`|e+
lzu tom bzlfp wlp mf jmbz`8 G ubw gi wm| obyl b emk
~bfw bf` wm|zl fmp kmygfd pmtbz` b|pmkbpgmf mf
`lkbf`# wm|cc obyl b emk~lpgpmz mfl `bw ummf tom
tgcc ~|p wm| m|p mi j|ugfluu&
Obf` ^zm`|epgmf /bzpgubfu'
Cmt igxl` emup# ogdo kbzdgfbc emup
Kbuu zm`|epgmf /buulkjcw cgfl'
Ogdo igxl` emup# cmt kbzdgfbc emup
Bdzbzgbf Bdl Gf`|upzgbc Bdl
Lxogjgp 98 ^ZMYG@GFD TOBP
EMFU\KLZU TBFP
Pol lymc|pgmf mi b|pm ~zm`|epgmf
gcc|upzbplu Bklzgebu kmyl izmk pol
Bdzbzgbf Bdl pm pol ~zlulfp& Cmebc
ezbip uom~u `lugdfl` bf` obf`ezbip+
l` pol lbzcglup ebzu& Ylogeclu u|eo bu
pol 2722 U~zgfdiglc` tlzl e|upmk+
kb`l j|p lxomzjgpbfpcw ~zgel`& Gf
kbuu ~zm`|egfd b|pmkmjgclu# Imz`
ubezgigel` gf`gyg`|bcguk j|p tbu bjcl
pm ucbuo ~zgelu& Emfu|klzu dmp g`lf+
pgebc km`lcu# j|p ~zm`|epgygpw umbzl`&
Pm`bwu ~zm`|epgmf klpom`u dgyl
j|wlzu pol jlup mi jmpo tmzc`ucmt
~zgelu bf` e|upmk `lugdf& E|upmklzu
eommul izmk f|klzm|u m~pgmfu mf
Imz`u tlj ugpl# polf pol b|pmkbalzu
emk~|plz+jbul` pleofmcmdw j|gc`u
pol ylogecl pm mz`lz bp cgppcl emup mylz
upbf`bz` km`lcu&
Pol Kb`l+pm+Mz`lz Ebzimz 5>> Lxbepgfd ^lm~cl
POL U^ZGFDIGLC@ KMPMZ EBZ EM&
PolU~zgfdiglc`
277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU>
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
Tolpolz emk~bfglu bzl ullagfd pm lx~bf ubclu mz
h|up upbw gf j|ugfluu# kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf lfbjclu
~zm`|elzu pm ufbzl j|wlzu jw miilzgfd lxpzb ybc|l& Gpufm u|z~zgul pobp emfu|klz ubpguibepgmf cglu bp pol
emzl mi pogu ~olfmklfmf1 tobp emfu|klzu tbfp
bctbwu uob~lu kbzalp lemfmkglu& Lemf 2>2 ~zmilu+
umzu obyl pb|dop pogu upzbgdopimztbz` fmpgmf ugfel
B bk Ukgpo ~|jcguol` Pol Tlbcpo mi Fbpgmfugf 2449&
Kbzalpu ulzyl bu emk~clx gfimzkbpgmf kbeogflu pobp
emcclep bf` emkk|fgebpl j|wlzu fll`u# pbuplu#
`lugzlu bf` togku& ^zm`|elzu pobp `m pol jlup hmj mi
ebplzgfd pm emfu|klzu dbgf kbzalp uobzl bf` kbal
dzlbplz ~zmigpu& J|zdlz Agfd dmp gp zgdop gf gpu b`ylz+
pgugfd ucmdbf8Obyl gp wm|z tbw"
Emk~bfglu ~zmu~lz jw `lcgylzgfd tobp e|upmklzu
tbfp& Pogu emfylfpgmfbc yglt mi emfu|klz umylz+
lgdfpw gu emzzlep bu ibz bu gp dmlu& Tobpu kguugfd gu
b `luezg~pgmf mi omt kllpgfd j|wlzu fll`u bf`
tbfpu lymcylu mylz pgkl& /Ull Lxogjgp 9&' Bklzgebfu
obyl bctbwu ~zlilzzl` e|upmkgl` ~zm`|epu# j|p polw
em|c`fp bctbwu biimz polk& Fmt# emk~bfglu bzl
igf`gfd tbwu pm `lcgylz lxbepcw tobp tl tbfp bp
~zgelu emk~lpgpgyl tgpo pomul mi kbuu ~zm`|epgmf&
\fpgc pol Gf`|upzgbc Zlymc|pgmf# ~zm`|elzu ebplzl`pm emfu|klzu mfl bp b pgkl& Um~ogupgebpl` kbeogfl
pmmcu ob`fp jllf gfylfpl`# um lylzw ~zm`|ep ob` pm
jl obf`kb`l& Bpbgcmz# imz lxbk~cl# tm|c` klbu|zl
lbeo e|upmklz bf` bua bjm|p upwcl# ibjzge bf` igp#
polf upgpeo b u|gp mz zluu pm pol lxbep ~bpplzf& Tolf
uomlu# i|zfgp|zl bf` bcc mpolz dmm`u tlzl kb`l pm
mz`lz# e|upmklzu em|c` bctbwu j|w h|up tobp polw
tbfpl` gi polw em|c` biimz` gp& Pol `zbtjbea mi
~zm`|epgmf jw bzpgubfu tbu ogdo emup& Pol pw~gebc
Bklzgebf tbu c|eaw pm ~muuluu mfl u|gp mi ecmpolu
bf` mfl ~bgz mi uomlu&
Gf`|upzgbcgbpgmf eobfdl` pobp& Kbeogflu jldbf pm
kbal m|z ecmpolu# uomlu# i|zfgp|zl# agpeolf |plfugcu
bf bf bzzbw mi flt ~zm`|epu# utll~gfd Bklzgeb gfpm
bf lzb mi kbuu ~zm`|epgmf& ^zm`|elz bf` emfu|klz
zbzlcw ebkl gfpm emfpbep& Dmm`u tlzl kb`l gf ibepm+
zglu# uog~~l mylz dzlbp `gupbfelu bf umc gf `l~bzp+
klfp upmzlu& Kbuu ~zm`|epgmf `gepbpl cbzdl z|fu mi
Kbuu E|upmkgbpgmf /emk~|plz# lpe&'
Cmt igxl emup# cmt kbzdgfbc emup
Gfimzkbpgmf Bdl
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
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>
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Ebzu
Bcc ylogeclu
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27?>74
Gf 274> \&U& emfu|klzu ob` beeluu
pm 20> `giilzlfp km`lcu mi ylogeclu
22> ebzu ~c|u 5> ~gea|~u# ybfu bf`
u~mzp |pgcgpw ylogeclu /U\Yu'& Jw 27?>
pol ybzglpw mi km`lcu ob` zgulf pm
24:25< ebzu bf` 54 mpolz ylog+
eclu& Pm`bwu lemfmkw miilzu emf+
u|klzu :9> giilzlfp ylogecl km`lcu
izmk togeo pm eommul& Pol kmup
fmpbjcl uogip gf emfu|klz pbupl obu
jllf pmtbz` U\Yu# tomul km`lcuzmul izmk ? gf 274> pm h|up 2: gf
27?> j|p pm 5? jw 2774& Pm`bwu
kl`gbf flt ebz j|wlz `zgylu btbw
gf b km`lc |fgr|l bkmfd 2>0 j|w+
lzu# emk~bzl` tgpo 2 gf ?0 gf 27?>&
277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
g`lfpgebc ~zm`|epu& Emfu|klzu ubezgigel` pol c|x|zw
mi ~lzumfbc bpplfpgmf imz biimz`bjgcgpw& Pbagfd tobp
ebkl mii pol uolci# pom|do gp kgdop fmp jl b ~lzilepigp# tbu pol jlup eomgel jleb|ul gp tbu eolb~& Pol
Gf`|upzgbc Bdl jzm|dop cmtlz ~zgelu& H|up bu gk~mz+
pbfp# lbeo tmzalz ~zm`|el` kmzl# h|upgiwgfd b jgddlz
~bweolea& Pm`bw# h|up bjm|p bcc \&U& om|ulomc`u ~mu+
uluu ebzu# plclygugmf ulpu# plcl~omflu bf` ~clfpw mi
mpolz lylzw`bw emfylfglfelubcc kb`l ~muugjcl jw
kbuu ~zm`|epgmf&
Tobpu gfezlbugfdcw uob~gfd pm`bwu lemfmkw gufp
pol zbt ~mtlz mi kbeogflu j|p pol u|jpcl ~mtlz mi
afmtcl`dl& Gfimzkbpgmf Bdl pleofmcmdw~zgkbzgcw
pol emk~|plzobu lzbul` wluplz`bwu l`gep pobp
e|upmkgbpgmf k|up ebzzw b ogdo ~zgel& Kbuu e|u+
pmkgbpgmf miilzu emfu|klzu pol jlup mi jmpo tmzc`u&
Gp lkjm`glu pol dmm` r|bcgpglu izmk pol lzb mi obf`
~zm`|epgmfe|upmk `lugdf bf` gf`gyg`|bcgl`
ulzygel& Bf` gp zlpbgfu pol kmup ugdfgigebfp dbgf izmk
pol lzb mi kbuu ~zm`|epgmfcmt emup&
Kbuu ~zm`|epgmf tbu bjm|p ~zm`|egfd kmzl up|ii
Kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf gu bjm|p ~zm`|egfd pol zgdop up|ii
E|upmkgbpgmf imz pol kbuu kbzalp gufp h|up lemfmkgupu hbzdmf imz ybzglpw& Pol `giilzlfel cglu gf
togeo ug`l mi pol kbzalp ebccu pol uompu& Ybzglpw zl~
zlulfpu ~zm`|elzu jlup d|luu bjm|p tobp emfu|klzu
tgcc j|w& Emk~bfglu ptlba polgz `lugdfu# om~gfd
tobp polw miilz gu ecmul lfm|do& Lylf tolf emk~b
fglu zlcw mf kbzalp zlulbzeo# polwzl upgcc bgkgfd bp
jzmb dzm|~u mi emfu|klzu& Ybzglpw obu `lcgylzl`
dzlbp jlfligpu gf zlelfp `leb`lu# j|p gp gu kbuu ~zm
`|epgmfu zlu~mful pm pol ibep pobp lylzwjm`wu pbuplu
`giilz& /Ull Lxogjgp 4&' Lylf bp gpu jlup# ybzglpw gu bf
gk~lzilep u|jupgp|pl imz pz|l e|upmkgbpgmf# togeo
lcgkgfbplu pol fll` imz d|luutmza& Emk~bfglu pobp
e|upmkgl `mfp kbal bfwpogfd |fpgc polw afmt ~zl+
egulcw tobp pol e|upmklz tbfpu&
Mfl ugl igpu bcc= Fmp bfwkmzl& Tobp ulzyl bu b
dmm ucmdbf imz kbuu ~zm`|epgmf `mlufp e|p gp gf
pm`bwu tmzc &
Bybgcbjcl km`lcu
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
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:
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
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Lxogjgp 258
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU>
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
23/52
IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
Lxogjgp 208 BF M\FEL MI ^ZLYLFPGMF
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umc|pgmfu pm kbfw ~|jcge olbcpo ~zmjclku& F|klzm|u
ybeegflu pbzdlpgfd b f|kjlz mi o|kbfagf`u kmup
up|jjmzf `gulbulu bf` emf`gpgmfu bzl gf pol `lylcm~+
klfp upbdl& Lupgkbplu bzl pobp gf h|up pol flxp ptm
`leb`lu# ~zmdzluu gf `gulbul ~zlylfpgmf tgcc `lcgylz
bu kbfw ybeegflu bu obyl jllf im|f` um ibz gf bcc mi
ogupmzw&
Tobpu kmzl# pol dbgfu gf ~zlylfpgyl m|p~|p bzlfp
cgkgpl` pm kl`gegfl& K|eo ~zmdzluu gf ~zlylfpgfd
beeg`lfpu# ~mcc|pgmf bf` ezgkl obu jllf kb`l mylz
pol ~bup r|bzplz elfp|zw& Lylf kmzl dbgfu kbw jl
flbz& J|p bu tgpo kl`gebc b`ybfelu# Bklzgebfu tgcc
obyl pm dlp |ul` pm fmp ullgfd polgz ~zmdzluu i|ccw
zliclepl` gf m|z lemfmkge upbpgupgeu&
-
8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
24/52
277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
jgbu# mfl pgl` pm pol ibep pobp tl ebf klbu|zl ~zm |e+
pgmf j|p fmp emfu|klzu ubpguibepgmf& Polw bzlfp pol
ubkl# lylf pom|do kbfw emkklfpbpmzu ebu|bccw cgfa
polk& /Ull Lxogjgp 25&'
Fmjm`w lylz ubg r|bfpgpw tbu pol u~gel mi cgil&
D@^ upbpgupgeu plcc pol ubkl pbcl tolpolz b j|ugfluu
lxle|pgyl mtfu 2: g`lfpgebc u|gpu mz gi ol ~muuluulu b
`mlf gf bf bzzbw mi ibjzgeu bf` upwclu& Gu gp zlbccw pol
ubkl= Fm gf`gyg`|bc tm|c pogfa um1 pobpu tow m|z
ecmulpu bzl igccl tgpo b ybzglpw mi dbzklfpu& Tgcc 2>>em~glu miPol Ebpeolz gf pol Zwl miilz bu k|eo zlb`+
gfd ~clbu|zl bu mfl em~w mi 2>> giilzlfp fmylcu= D@
ubwu um& Kmup emfu|klzu tm|c ubw fm& Bf h|up bu
ybzglpw obu ~zm`|el` dbgfu imz Bklzgeb pobp obyl
lc|`l` pol D@^ bf` ~zm`|epgygpw upbpgupgeu# kbuu
e|upmkgbpgmf tgcc ~zm`|el lylf kmzl&
^zlylfpgyl ~zm`|epgmf ~zmylu h|up bu ucg~~lzw imz
D@ beem|fpgfd& /Ull Lxogjgp 20&' Gi lclepzmfge ulf+
Lxogjgp 2 pm 2745# \&U& ~zm`|epgygpw gfezlbul` jw bf bylzbdl mi :&5 ~lz+
elfp b wlbz& Biplz 2745# pol dzmtpo zbpl ucmtl` jw b i|cc ~lzelfpbdl ~mgfp&
Gi emk~|plzu bzl kbagfd Bklzgebf tmzalzu bf` emk~bfglu kmzl liig+
eglfp# tow bzl pol fbpgmfu ~zm`|epgygpw klbu|zlu um cbeac|uplz=
Pogu um+ebccl` Umcmt ~bzb`mx eobcclfdlu m|z fmpgmfu mi tobp ezlbplu
lemfmkge ~zmdzluu& Pol jlcctlpolz gfylfpgmfu mi pol ~bup imuplzl` dzlbp
clb~u gf ~zm`|epgygpw# togeo zbgul` tbdlu bf` cgygfd upbf`bz`u& Bklzgebf ~lzeb~gpb gfemkl r|b`z|~cl` bu emfu|klzu zlb~l` pol jlfligpu mi u|eo tmzc`+
uobagfd gffmybpgmfu bu uplbk lfdgflu# lclepzgegpw# zlizgdlzbpgmf# plcl~omflu
bf` b|pmkmjgclu& Gi emk~|plzu bzlfp ~zmyg`gfd b jgd ~zm`|epgygpw jmmup#
polzlu zlbumf pm `m|jp Bklzgebfu cgygfd upbf`bz`u tgcc zgul bu r|geacw bu
polw `g` gf pol ~bup&
Tow obylfp emk~|plzu jzm|dop b u|zdl gf ~zm`|epgygpw=
Lemfmkgupu obyl miilzl` ulylzbc lx~cbfbpgmfu imz pol Umcmt ~bzb`mx&
Bkmfd polk8 polzl kbw jl b dcgpeo gf pol ~zm`|epgygpw `bpb& Emk~|plzu kbw
fmp obyl beoglyl` ezgpgebc kbuu gf gf`|upzw& Gp kbw pbal kmzl pgkl pm zlbcgl
pol dbgfu izmk emk~|plzu# um pol ~zm`|epgygpw u|zdl tgcc emkl cbplz& Bf` pol
kmup `gup|zjgfd zlbumf8 pol emk~|plz gufp pobp jgd b `lbc# bp clbup tolf
emk~bzl` tgpo pol dzlbp gfylfpgmfu mi pol ~bup&
Fmfl mi polul lx~cbfbpgmfu emfug`lzu pol dbgfu izmk ybzglpw# e|upmkgb+
pgmf mz ~zlylfpgyl dmm`u& Wlp pol jlfligpu izmk emk~|plzu# umiptbzl# pol
Gfplzflp bf` mpolz gffmybpgmfu bzlfp emfigfl` pm ~zm`|egfd h|up kmzl up|ii&
Polul pleofmcmdglu bccmt emk~bfglu pm ~zm`|el pol zgdop up|ii bp zlbumf+
bjcl ~zgelukbagfd emfu|klzu jlpplz mii gf tbwu fmp i|ccw eb~p|zl` jw
upbf`bz` lemfmkge upbpgupgeu&
Pol kbpolkbpgebc ~zmmi gf pol b~~lf`gx uomtu pobp D@^ bf` ~zm`|epgy+
gpw bee|zbplcw klbu|zl pol dbgfu gf cgygfd upbf`bz`u tolf pleofmcmdgebc~zmdzluu cmtlzu kbzdgfbc emupu& J|p tolf pol lemfmkw `lylcm~u pmmcu pobp
e|p igxl` emupu# pol upbpgupgeu |f`lzem|fpgf ibep# pmpbccw gdfmzlpol dbgfu&
Pol b~~lf`gx bcum uomtu pobp D@^ ibccu tolf umeglpw `lylcm~u ~zlylfpgyl
dmm`u# u|eo bu ybeegflu pm lzb`gebpl `gulbulu mz bfpgcmea jzbalu pm bylzp
beeg`lfpu# `lu~gpl pol zgul gf cgygfd upbf`bz`u&
Gf pol lf`# polzl gu fm Umcmt ~bzb`mx& Emk~|plzu bzl `mgfd tobp gfylf+
pgmfu obyl bctbwu `mfl8 polwzl jlfligpgfd umeglpw# bf` polwzl kbagfd m|z
cgylu jlpplz&
umzu gf zmb`u bf` ylogeclu ebf ~zlylfp beeg`lfpu
Bklzgebfu tgcc obyl |f`bkbdl ebzu& Tgpom|p pol
pleofmcmdw# polw kgdop jl gfymcyl gf kmzl emccg+
ugmfu# u~lf`gfd kmflw mf zl~bgzu& Lgpolz tbw# polw
obyl pol ubkl pogfdb ebz tgpom|p `lfpu& Pol igzup
emupu cluu# um D@ beem|fpgfd tm|c u|ddlup tlzl
tmzul mii# fmp jlpplz mii& Ugkgcbzcw# ueglfpgupu bzl
`lylcm~gfd ybeegflu pobp tgcc lcgkgfbpl pmmpo `lebw
Tl tgcc jlfligp izmk gk~zmyl `lfpbc olbcpo# j|p pol
omclu fmp `zgccl` gf pllpo bzl flp cmuulu pm D@^& Bupgpeo gf pgkl kbw gf`ll` ubyl fgfl# j|p gp bcum dlf+
lzbplu mfl+fgfpo pol D@ &
Gficbpgmf+b`h|upl D@ ~|pu lemfmkge dzmtpo b
bf bff|bc bylzbdl mi :&4 ~lzelfp mylz pol ~bup ptm
`leb`lu& D@ kbw jl lfpgzlcw bee|zbpl bu b pbccw m
omt k|eo m|z ibzku# ibepmzglu bf miigelu ~zm`|el
j|p gpu gfezlbugfdcw gfb`lr|bpl bu b klbu|zl mi omt
tlcc pol lemfmkw ~zmyg`lu tobp tl tbfppol ubp+
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
25/52
IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
Gf pol iglc mi kl`gegfl# Biiwklpzgx bczlb`w kbalu
`lygelu pm `lem`l gf`gyg`|bcu @FB& Pol bjgcgpw pm
r|geacw dbpolz olzlpmimzl |fafmtf gfimzkbpgmf
bjm|p ~bpglfpu gu dgygfd jgzpo pm b flt `gueg~cgfl
ebccl` ~obzkbemdlfmkgeu& \ugfd pogu `gupgfep dlflp+
ge ~mzpzbgp# ~obzkbel|pgebc emk~bfglu lx~lep pm
miilz `z|du pbgcmzl pm gf`gyg`|bcu bdl# uwk~pmku#
emf`gpgmf bf` olzl`gpbzw kbal|~& ^lzumfbcgl`
`z|du tgcc fmp mfcw lfu|zl emzzlep `mubdl# polwcc bcum
e|zpbgc ug`l liilepu&
Kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf ~zmkgulu kmzl kbzylcu cgal
polul& Gfplzbepgyl plclygugmf tgcc dgyl ibkgcglu pol
~mtlz# fmt olc jw flptmza ~zmdzbk `gzlepmzu# pm
`lplzkgfl pol fgdopcw cgfl|~& B|pmkbalzu bzl upbzpgfd
pm `lugdf uwuplku pobp tgcc j|gc ebzu pm mz`lz& Plxp+
jmmau# uelfpu# lclepzmfge db`dlpu bf h|up bjm|p lylzw+
pogfd lcul tgcc umkl`bw jlbz m|z ~lzumfbc upbk~&
Tl kgdop fmp ull ibuplz dzmtpo zbplu mz u|zdlu gf
~zm`|epgygpw# j|p kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf tgcc ~bw mii imz
Bklzgeb& Zlum|zelu bzl tbupl d|luugfd tobp e|u+
pmklzu tbfp& Tolf kmzl ~zm`|epu bzl e|upmkgl`#
tl tmfp ur|bf`lz kmflw mf ecmpogfd pobp ugpu gf pol
ecmulp jleb|ul gp `mlufp igp mz emk~bep `gueu tgpo
mfcw mfl mz ptm umfdu tl zlbccw cgal& Bf dmm`u tmfpcbfd|guo mf lbclzu uolcylu& Beoglygfd b ogdolz upbf+
`bz` mi cgygfd tgpo iltlz `lkbf`u mf fbp|zbc bf`
cbjmz zlum|zelu tgcc olc~ lbul ~zgel ~zluu|zlu bf`
emfpgf|l pogu `leb`lu dmm fltu mf gficbpgmf&
Ptm elfp|zglu mi Bklzgebf lemfmkge ~zmdzluu
obyl jzm|dop |u b upbf`bz` mi cgygfd pobpu pol lfyw
mi pol tmzc & Tl tm|c`fp obyl gp um dmm tgpom|p pol
gkklful ybzglpw ~zmyg`l bu emk~bfglu kmyl izmk
upbf`bz`gbpgmf pm e|upmk+kb`l& M|z lemfmkw
miilzu b ylzgpbjcl ilbup imz emfu|klzu& Kbuu e|upmk+gbpgmf tgcc kbal gp lylf jlpplz& Bf lemfmkw pobpu
`lcgylzgfd kmzl mi tobp tl tbfp bf cluu mi tobp tl
`mfp gu `mgfd gpu hmj gf zbgugfd cgygfd upbf`bz`u& Bu tl
lfplz pol :2up elfp|zw# pol \fgpl` Upbplu gu kmygfd
gfpm b flt lemfmkge lzb# mfl tolzl emfu|klzu tgcc
jl jlpplz mii pobf lylz jlimzljleb|ul tlcc cgyl gf
b tmzc mi m|z mtf `lugdf&
T& Kgeoblc Emx bf` Zgeobz` Bck
guibepgmf ~zm`|el & Bu tl dzmt tlbcpoglz# Bklzgebfu
bzl pbagfd kmzl mi m|z ~zmdzluu gf tbwu pobp bzlfp
zlb`gcw r|bfpgigl & Tlzl zligfgfd tobp tl ~zm+
`|el kbagfd pol zgdop up|ii# fmp h|up up|ii&
Gi D@ ebfp `lplep pol jlfligpu mi kbuu e|upmk+
gbpgmf# gp tgcc bcum kguu pol kbza mf ~zm`|epgygpw#
b f|kjlz pobp `lzgylu upzbgdop izmk pol D@^ ebc+
e|cbpgmfu& Umkl lemfmkgupu bzl `gub~~mgfpl` gf
Bklzgebu ~zm`|epgygpw ~lzimzkbfel mylz pol ~bup
r|bzplz elfp|zw# b pgkl mi zb~g` u~zlb` mi flt pleo+
fmcmdglukmup fmpbjcw pol emk~|plz& Polw ull
klbu|zl ~zm`|epgygpw ucmtgfd pm 2 ~lzelfp b wlbz
bf tmzzw pobp Gfimzkbpgmf Bdl b`ybfelu bzlfp
`lcgylzgfd pol ubkl lemfmkge ~|feo bu Gf`|upzgbc
Bdl gfylfpgmfu& Gp h|up gufp um& M|z upbpgupgeu `mfp
zlemdfgl omt pol lemfmkw gu kbagfd |u jlpplz mii
jw ~zm`|egfd imz |u gf`gyg`|bccw zbpolz pobf lf
kbuul& /Ull Lxogjgp 2
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
26/52
277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
`|egfd b ilt dmm`u bf` ezlbpgfd ybzglpw l~lf`u mf pol igxl` bf` kbzdgfbc emup
mi ~zm`|epgmf /bf` # zlu~lepgylcw' # pol pmpbc zlum|zelu bybgcbjcl imz ~zm`|e
pgmf /Z' # pol zlum|zel emup mi mylzemkgfd pol u|juguplfel clylc mi dmm`
O# bf` # togeo zliclepu pol uobz~fluu mi pol `lecgfl gf pol kbzdgfbc |pgcgpw m
emfu|k~pgmf mi lbeo dmm &
Lxbkgfgfd pol liilep mi pleofmcmdgebc ~zmdzluu mf r|bfpgpw# ybzglpw# D@ bf`
cgygfd upbf`bz`u# pol lr|bpgmfu uomt pobp b ibcc gf kbzdgfbc ~zm`|epgmf emupu
/' zbgulux# f# \bf D@ 1 omtlylz# b ibcc gf igxl emupu /' cmtlzux# zbgulu f
bf` \j|p obu fm liilep mf D@^& D@^ bf` cgygfd upbf`bz`u zgul pmdlpolz gf pol
ibel mi pleofmcmdgebc ~zmdzluu pobp zl`|elu # j|p ~zmdzluu pmpbccw lc|`lu pol
D@^ upbpgupge tolf flt pmmcu pobp e|p igxl` emupu bzl lylcm~l` /tolf ibccu'
Fmpl i|zpolz pobp pol D@ upbpgupge dgylu bf lzzmflm|u / pobp gu# m~~mugpl'
gf`gebpgmf mi tobp ob~~lfu pm cgygfd upbf`bz`u tolf ~zmdzluu gu kb`l gf zl
`|egfd u|juguplfel clylcu& Imz lxbk~cl# b ibcc gf pol gf`gdlfm|u clylc mi ugeaflu
/b cmtlz u' kb`l ~muugjcl# ubw# jw igf`gfd ybeegflu# zbgulu f bf` \tgpo fm liile
mfx# j|p D@ bep|bccw `lecgflu& Ybeegflu zl`|el pol lemfmkge bepgygpw /D@^
~zlygm|ucw lx~lf`l` gf pzlbpklfp# bf` umkl mi pol zlum|zelu ubyl` ~bw pol
igxl emupu mi lx~bf gfd ~zm`|ep ybzglpw& Mylzbcc D@ ibccu&
Polul igf`gfdu gk~cw pobp bddzldbpl m|p~|p / bf` gpu lzgybpgyl# ~zm`|epgygpw'
kbw obyl jllf bf b`lr|bpl db|dl mi lemfmkge ~zmdzluu tolf u|eo gffmybpgmf
bu pol buulkjcw cgfl# upbf`bz`gl` f|pu bf` jmcpu# lclepzgegpw bf` kmpmzu cmt
lzl` kbuu ~zm`|epgmf emupu& J|p D@ bp jlup |f`lzupbplu pm`bwu ~zmdzluu tolf
gffmybpgmfu u|eo bu pol kgezmeog~# pol ~lzumfbc emk~|plz# pol Gfplzflp bf`
igjlz m~pgeu kbal ~muugjcl bf lzb mi kbuu e|upmkgbpgmf& Tobpu kmzl# pleofm
cmdgebc ~zmdzluu gf jgmpleo# dlfmkgeu bf` ~zlylfpgyl m|p~|pu kbw dzlbpcw
gk~zmyl umeglpwu cgygfd upbf`bz`u wlp kbfgilup gpulci gf b zleluugmf&
Gp gu tmzpo zlklkjlzgfd pobp b kbzalp lemfmkw upzgylu pm zbgul m|z cgygfd
upbf`bz`ufmp ugk~cw D@^jleb|ul pobpu tolzl j|ugfluu ~zmigpu cgl& Po|u
pol zlbc ~bzb`mx gu fmp tow wm| ebf ull pol emk~|plz bdl lylzwtolzl j|p gf
pol ~zm`|epgygpw upbpgupgeu< j|p tow lemfmkgupu tom ~zlbeo pobp gf`gyg`|bc
kbxgkgl |pgcgpw bf igzku kbxgkgl ~zmigp cmma imz ugdfu mi ~zmdzluu lxec|ugylcw
gf pol ~zm`|epgygpw `bpb&
2 Ull Emx bf` Z|iigf /277?'&: Pogu imzk|cbpgmf buu|klu omkmdlflm|u lemfmkge bdlfpu# um pobp pol gf`gyg`|bcu bf`
umeglpwu |pgcgpw i|fepgmfu bzl pol ubkl& Dlflzbcggfd pol ulp|~ pm olplzmdlflm|u
bdlfpu tm|c` gfpzm`|el pol ~mplfpgbc imz lylf i|zpolz dbgfu gf cgygfd upbf`bz`u bu
~zm`|ep ybzglpw gfezlbulu# j|p bp jlup tm|c` emk~cgebpl pol bddzldbpgmf mi umegbc
tlcibzl bf` bp tmzup tm|c` ~zmyl kbpolkbpgebccw gfpzbepbjcl&5 Pol ulemf` tlcibzl polmzlk upbplu pobp |f`lz elzpbgf emf`gpgmfu /ubpguigl` olzl' pol
umc|pgmf pm pol elfpzbc ~cbfflzu ~zmjclk mi kbxgkggfd umegbc tlcibzl gu pol ubkl bu
pobp mi pol ~zgybpl kbzalp lemfmkw# gf togeo gf`gyg`|bcu kbxgkgl |pgcgpw bf` igzku
kbxgkgl ~zmigp&0 Pol umc|pgmf imz xOlxell`u pol mpolz xgjw u&< Umcmt /27?4'&
Gf pol b~~lf`gx tl km`lc bf` ~zmyl kbpolkbpgebccw pol zlu|cpu upbpl` gf pol
kbgf plxp&2 U~legigebccw# tl uomt pobp dzmuu mklupge ~zm`|ep bee|zbplcw klbu+
|zlu pol dbgfu gf umeglpwu cgygfd upbf`bz`u tolf pleofmcmdgebc ~zmdzluu gu mi pol
pw~l pobp cmtlzu kbzdgfbc ~zm`|epgmf emupu& J|p D@ |f`lzem|fpugf`ll`#
pmpbccw gdfmzlupol dbgfu gf cgygfd upbf`bz`u tolf flt pleofmcmdglu e|p igxl`
~zm`|epgmf emupu& Kmzlmylz# tl uomt pobp D@ ibccu tolf umeglpw `lylcm~u ~zl+
ylfpgyl dmm`u /u|eo bu gkk|fgpglu pm `gulbulu mz bfp gcmea jzbalu pm bylzp beeg+
`lfpu'# lylf pom|do polul dmm`u zbgul cgygfd upbf`bz`u&
Buu|kl pobp cgygfd upbf`bz`u ebf jl klbu|zl` jw pol pzbfuimzkl` ELU |pgc+
gpw i|fepgmf:
tolzl \zl~zlulfpu pol |pgcgpw klpzge imz cgygfd upbf`bz`u# xg
zl~zlulfpu pol
r|bfpgpw mi lbeo mi pol f `giilzlfp ~zm`|epu ~zm`|el`# bf` u zl~zlulfpu pol
u|juguplfel clylc xO k|up zlbeo jlimzl `lzgygfd bfw ubpguibepgmf izmk dmm`
Ou|eo bu pol clylc mi ugeafluu pobp k|up jl mylzemkl pm lfhmw /dmm`' olbcpo&
Pol lemfmkw ibelu pol emfupzbgfp
togeo `gepbplu pobp pol pmpbc r|bfpgpw mi zlum|zelu |ul` gf pol ~zm`|epgmf mi
bcc dmm`u ebffmp lxell`Z# pol lemfmkwu zlum|zel lf`mtklfp& Gf pogu lr|bpgmf#
zl~zlulfpu pol igxl zlum|zel emup mi ~zm`|egfd lbeo mi pol f dmm u bf` zl~zl+
ulfpu pol kbzdgfbc zlum|zel emup mi ~zm`|egfd mfl |fgp mi lbeo mi pol f dmm u&
Imz ugk~cgegpw# tl buu|kl g; bf`
g; g& Pol buu|k~pgmf mi uwk+
klpzw bccmtu |u pm gfilz pobp pol m~pgkbc umc|pgmf gfymcylux2; x
:; ; x
O u
; ; xf ; x# bf` polzljw bccmtu |u pm zl`|el pol mjhlepgyl i|fepgmf pm pol
ugk~cl imzk
Pbagfd b`ybfpbdl mi pol ulemf` tlcibzl polmzlk# tl umcyl pol umegbc ~cbfflzu
~zmjclk8 kbxgkgl \u|jhlep pmZ;f ! /fx ! u' jw eommugfd pol tlcibzl+
kbxgkggfd r|bfpgpw mi lbeo dmm` pm ~zm`|el /x' bf` pol ybzglpw mi dmm`u /f'
pm ~zm`|el mylzbcc&5 Pogu wglc`u
bu pol m~pgkbc umc|pgmfu&0 Jw `ligfgpgmf# D@ gu pol pmpbc r|bfpgpw mi dmm`u ~zm+
`|el` gf pol lemfmkw# mz
Luulfpgbccw# emfu|klzu ybc|l ybzglpw# j|p igzku k|up lx~lf` zlum|zelu pm ulp
|~ ~zm`|epgmf mi pol `giilzlfp dmm`u& Pol m~pgkbc pzb`l+mii jlptllf kbuu ~zm+
D@ fx u Z u; ! ; ! / '
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8/2/2019 1998 Dallas Federal Reserve Annual Report
27/52
IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
BEAFMTCL@DK LFPU
Pol Zgdop Up|ii8 Bklzgebu Kmyl pm Kbuu E|upmkgbpgmf
tbu tzgp plf jw T& Kgeoblc Emx bf Zgeobz Bck& Pol
luubw gu jbul mf zlulbzeo emf`|epl jw Emx# ulfgmz ygel~zlug`lfp bf eogli lemfmkgup# Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Jbfa mi
@bccbu& Klzl gpo Tbcalz ~zmyg`l gk~mzpbfp zlulbzeo
buugupbfel pozm|dom|p pol em|zul mi pol ~zmhlep& Pobfau
bcum dm pm Kbzgb Emlccm# Dbccgf Imzp|fmy# Eobzclfl Omtlcc#
Ulzdlg ^mclygamy bf Upl~olf Upm|p&
ULCLEPL@ ZLILZLFELU
Jbzzw# Hbklu Olfzw Imz` bf` Kbuu zm |epgmf
/Flt Wmza8 Izbfacgf Tbppu# 2745'&
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
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@BCCBU
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
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Jleb|ul mi gfolzlfp cgkgpbpgmfu gf bfw gfplzfbc emfpzmc# kguupbplklfpu |l pm lzzmz mz izb|`
kbw mee|z bf fmp jl `lplepl & Bcum# ~zmhlepgmfu mi bfw lybc|bpgmf mi pol gfplzfbc emfpzmc
mylz igfbfegbc zl~mzpgfd pm i|p|zl ~lzgm`u bzl u|jhlep pm pol zgua pobp pol gfplzfbc emfpzm
kbw jlemkl gfb`lr|bpl jleb|ul mi eobfdlu gf emf`gpgmfu# mz pobp pol ldzll mi emk~cgbfel
tgpo pol ~mcgeglu mz ~zmel`|zlu kbw lplzgmzbpl&
Gf m|z m~gfgmf# kbfbdlklfpu buulzpgmf pobp pol IZJ @bccbu kbgfpbgfl liilepgyl gfplzfbcemfpzmc mylz igfbfegbc zl~mzpgfd bf` mylz pol ubild|bz`gfd mi buulpu bu polw zlcbpl pm pol
Igfbfegbc Upbplklfpu bu mi @lelkjlz 52# 277?# gu ibgzcw upbpl # gf bcc kbplzgbc zlu~lepu#
jbul` |~mf ezgplzgb `luezgjl` gf Gfplzfbc EmfpzmcGfpldzbpl` Izbkltmza guu|l` jw pol
Emkkgppll mi U~mfumzgfd Mzdbfgbpgmfu mi pol Pzlb`tbw Emkkguugmf&
@bccbu# Plxbu
Kbzeo
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
ZL MZP MI GF@L LF@LFP BEEM\FPBFPU
^zgeltbplzom|ulEmm~lzu CC
Pm pol Jmbz mi Dmylzfmzu mi pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Uwuplk
bf pol Jmbz mi @gzlepmzu mi pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Jbfa mi @bccbu8
Tl obyl b|`gpl` pol beemk~bfwgfd upbplklfpu mi emf`gpgmf mi pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Jbfa
mi @bccbu /pol Jbfa' bu mi @lelkjlz 52# 277? bf 2774# bf pol zlcbpl upbplklfpu mi
gfemkl bf` eobfdlu gf eb~gpbc imz pol wlbzu polf lf`l`& Polul igfbfegbc upbplklfpu bzl
pol zlu~mfugjgcgpw mi pol Jbfau kbfbdlklfp& M|z zlu~mfugjgcgpw gu pm lx~zluu bf m~gfgmf
mf pol Igfbfegbc Upbplklfpu jbul` mf m|z b|`gpu&
Tl emf`|epl m|z b|`gpu gf beemz`bfel tgpo dlflzbccw beel~pl b|`gpgfd upbf`bz`u& Pomul
upbf`bz`u zlr|gzl pobp tl ~cbf bf` ~lzimzk pol b|`gp pm mjpbgf zlbumfbjcl buu|zbfel bjm|p
tolpolz pol igfbfegbc upbplklfpu bzl izll mi kbplzgbc kguupbplklfp& Bf b|`gp gfec|`lu
lxbkgfgfd# mf b plup jbugu# lyg`lfel u|~~mzpgfd pol bkm|fpu bf` `guecmu|zlu gf pol igfbf+
egbc upbplklfpu& Bf b|`gp bcum gfec|`lu buuluugfd pol beem|fpgfd ~zgfeg~clu |ul` bf` ugd+
fgigebfp lupgkbplu kb`l jw kbfbdlklfp# bu tlcc bu lybc|bpgfd pol mylzbcc igfbfegbc upbpl+
klfp ~zlulfpbpgmf& Tl jlcglyl pobp m|z b|`gpu ~zmyg`l b zlbumfbjcl jbugu imz m|z m~gfgmf&
Bu `gue|uul gf Fmpl 5# pol igfbfegbc upbplklfpu tlzl ~zl~bzl gf emfimzkgpw tgpo pol
beem|fpgfd ~zgfeg~clu# ~mcgeglu# bf ~zbepgelu lupbjcguol jw pol Jmbz mi Dmylzfmzu mi pol
Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Uwuplk& Polul ~zgfeg~clu# ~mcgeglu# bf ~zbepgelu# togeo tlzl `lugdfl pm
kllp pol u~legbcgl` beem|fpgfd bf` zl~mzpgfd fll`u mi pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Uwuplk# bzl ulp
imzpo gf pol Igfbfegbc Beem|fpgfd Kbf|bc imz Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Jbfau bf emfupgp|pl b
emk~zlolfugyl jbugu mi beem|fpgfd mpolz pobf dlflzbccw beel~pl` beem|fpgfd ~zgfeg~clu&
Gf m|z m~gfgmf# pol igfbfegbc upbplklfpu zlilzzl` pm bjmyl ~zlulfp ibgzcw# gf bcc kbplzgbc
zlu~lepu# pol igfbfegbc ~mugpgmf mi pol Jbfa bu mi @lelkjlz 52# 277? bf 2774# bf zlu|cpu
mi gpu m~lzbpgmfu imz pol wlbzu polf lf`l`# mf pol jbugu mi beem|fpgfd luezgjl` gf Fmpl 5&
@bccbu# Plxbu
Kbzeo
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
UPBPLKLFPU MI EMF@GPGMF / GF K GCCGMFU'
@lelkjlz 52# 277? @lelkjlz 52# 2774BUULPU
Dmc` elzpgigebplu $ $ 0 54
Gplku gf ~zmeluu mi emcclepgmf 57: 5#490 2:7 7 4
@l~mugpu8
@l~mugpmzw gfupgp|pgmfu 2#299 :#0?>
Mpolz `l~mugpu 7 2>
@lilzzl` ezl`gp gplku 550 0:0U|z~c|u pzbfuilz |l \&U& Pzlbu|zw 2>5 2:
Beez|l` jlfligp emup 07 0]]]]]]]]] ]]]]]]]]]
Pmpbc eb~gpbc $ 0
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
UPBPLK LFPU MI GFEMK L /GF K GCCGMFU'
IMZ POL WLBZU LF@L@@lelkjlz 52#277? @lelkjlz 52#2774
GFPLZLUP GFEMKL
Gfplzlup mf \&U& dmylzfklfp ule|zgpglu $ 2#259 $ 72>
Gfplzlup mf imzlgdf e|zzlfeglu :5 :2]]]]]]]]] ]]]]]]]]]
Pmpbc gfplzlup gfemkl $ 2#2
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277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp s IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU
UPBPLKLFPU MI EOBFDLU GF EB GPBC
IMZ POL WLBZU LF@L@ @LELK JLZ 52# 277?#
BF@ @LELKJLZ 52# 2774 / GF K GCCGMFU'
Eb~gpbc Pmpbc
^bg`+Gf U|z~c|u Eb~gpbc
JBCBFEL BP HBF\BZW 2# 2774
/
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IL@LZBC ZLULZYL JBFA MI @BCCBU s 277? Bff|bc Zl~mzp
2& MZDBFGXBPGMF
Pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Jbfa mi @bccbu / Jbfa' gu ~bzp mi pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Uwuplk /Uwuplk'
ezlbpl jw Emfdzluu |f`lz pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Bep mi 2725 /Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Bep'# togeo lupbj
cguol` pol elfpzbc jbfa mi pol \fgpl` Upbplu& Pol Uwuplk emfugupu mi pol Jmbz` mi Dmylzfmzu mi polIl`lzbc Zlulzyl Uwuplk /Jmbz mi Dmylzfmzu' bf 2: Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Jbfau /Zlulzyl
Jbfau' & Pol Zlulzyl Jbfau bzl eobzplzl` jw pol il`lzbc dmylzfklfp bf` ~muuluu b |fgr|l ulp m
dmylzfklfpbc# emz~mzbpl# bf` elfpzbc jbfa eobzbeplzgupgeu& Mpolz kbhmz lclklfpu mi pol Uwuplk
bzl pol Il`lzbc M~lf Kbzalp Emkkgppll /IMKE' bf pol Il`lzbc B ygumzw Em|fegc& Pol IMKE
gu emk~mul mi klkjlzu mi pol Jmbz mi Dmylzfmzu# pol ~zlug`lfp mi pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Jbfa m
Flt Wmza / IZJFW'# bf`# mf b zmpbpgfd jbugu# im|z mpolz Zlulzyl Jbfa ~zlug`lfpu&
Upz|ep|zl
Pol Jbfa bf` gpu jzbfeolu gf Lc ^bum# Om|upmf# bf` Ubf Bfpmfgm ulzyl pol Lclylfpo Il`lzb
Zlulzyl @gupzgep# togeo gfec|`lu Plxbu bf ~mzpgmfu mi Cm|gugbfb bf Flt Klxgem& Gf beemz
`bfel tgpo pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Bep# u|~lzygugmf bf` emfpzmc mi pol Jbfa bzl lxlzegul` jw b
jmbz` mi `gzlepmzu& Jbfau pobp bzl klkjlzu mi pol Uwuplk gfec|`l bcc fbpgmfbc jbfau bf` bf
upbpl+eobzplzl` jbfa pobp b~~cglu bf` gu b~~zmyl` imz klkjlzuog~ gf pol Uwuplk&
Jmbz` mi @gzlepmzu
Pol Il`lzbc Zlulzyl Bep u~legiglu pol emk~mugpgmf mi pol jmbz` mi `gzlepmzu imz lbeo mi pol
Zlulzyl Jbfau& Lbeo jmbz` gu emk~mul` mi fgfl klkjlzu ulzygfd pozll+wlbz plzku8 pozll gzle
pmzu# gfec|`gfd pomul lugdfbpl` bu eobgzkbf bf` l~|pw eobgzkbf# bzl b~~mgfpl` jw pol Jmbz` m
Dmylzfmzu# bf` ugx gzlepmzu bzl lclepl` jw klkjlz jbfau& Mi pol ugx lclepl` jw klkjlz jbfau
pozll zl~zlulfp pol ~|jcge bf` pozll zl~zlulfp klkjlz jbfau& Klkjlz jbfau bzl `gyg`l` gfpm
pozll ecbuulu beemz`gfd pm ugl& Klkjlz jbfau gf lbeo ecbuu lclep mfl gzlepmz zl~zlulfpgfd klk
jlz jbfau bf` mfl zl~zlulfpgfd pol ~|jcge& Gf bfw lclepgmf mi `gzlepmzu# lbeo klkjlz jbfa
zlelgylu mfl ympl# zldbz`cluu mi pol f|kjlz mi uobzlu mi Zlulzyl Jbfa upmea gp omc`u&
:& M^LZBPGMFU BF@ ULZYGELU
Pol Uwuplk ~lzimzku b ybzglpw mi ulzygelu bf` m~lzbpgmfu& I|fepgmfu gfec|`l imzk|cbpgfd bf`
emf`|epgfd kmflpbzw ~mcgew1 ~bzpgeg~bpgfd bepgylcw gf pol ~bwklfpu kleobfguk# gfec|`gfd cbzdl`mccbz pzbfuilzu mi i|f`u# b|pmkbpl` eclbzgfdom|ul m~lzbpgmfu# bf` eolea ~zmeluugfd1 gupzgj|pgfd
emgf bf e|zzlfew1 ~zmyg gfd iguebc bdlfew i|fepgmfu imz pol \&U& Pzlbu|zw bf elzpbgf il`lzbc
bdlfeglu1 ulzygfd bu pol il`lzbc dmylzfklfpu jbfa1 ~zmyg gfd uomzp+plzk cmbfu pm `l~mugpmzw gfupg
p|pgmfu1 ulzygfd pol emfu|klz bf` pol emkk|fgpw jw ~zmyg`gfd l`|ebpgmfbc kbplzgbcu bf` gfimz
kbpgmf zldbz`gfd emfu|klz cbtu1 u|~lzygugfd jbfa omc`gfd emk~bfglu bf` upbpl klkjlz jbfau
bf` b`kgfguplzgfd mpolz zld|cbpgmfu mi pol Jmbz` mi Dmylzfmzu& Pol Jmbz` mi Dmylzfmzum~lzbp
gfd emupu bzl i|f`l` pozm|do buuluuklfpu mf pol Zlulzyl Jbfau&
Pol IMKE lupbjcguolu ~mcgew zldbz`gfd m~lf kbzalp m~lzbpgmfu# mylzullu polul m~lzbp gmfu# bf`
guu|lu b|pomzgbpgmfu bf` `gzlepgylu pm pol IZJFWimz gpu lxle|pgmf mi pzbfubepgmfu& B|pomzgl`
pzbfubepgmf pw~lu gfec|`l gzlep ~|zeobul bf` ubcl mi ule|zgpglu# kbpeol` ubcl~|zeobul pzbfu
bepgmfu# ~|zeobul mi ule|zgpglu |f`lz bdzllklfpu pm zlulcc# bf` clf`gfd mi \&U& dmylzfklfp ule|
zgpglu& B` gpgmfbccw# pol IZJFWgu b|pomzgl jw pol IMKE pm omc jbcbfelu mi# bf pm lxle|pl
u~mp bf` imztbz` imzlgdf lxeobfdl bf` ule|zgpglu emfpzbepu gf# 20 imzlgdf e|zzlfeglu1 kbgfpbgf
zleg~zmebc e|zzlfew bzzbfdlklfpu / I-_utb~u' tgpo ybzgm|u elfpzbc jbfau1 bf` tbzlom|ul
imzlgdf e|zzlfeglu imz pol \&U& Pzlbu|zw Lxeobfdl Upbjgcgbpgmf I|f` / LUI' pozm|do pol
Zlulzyl Jbfau&
5& UGDFGIGEBFP BEEM\FPGFD ^MCGEGLU
Beem|fpgfd ~zgfeg~clu imz lfpgpglu tgpo pol |fgr|l ~mtlzu bf` zlu~mfugjgcgpglu mi pol fbpgmfu elf
pzbc jbfa obyl fmp jllf imzk|cbpl` jw pol Igfbfegbc Beem|fpgfd Upbf`bz`u Jmbz`& Pol Jmbz` m
Dmylzfmzu obu `lylcm~l` u~legbcgl` beem|fpgfd ~zgfeg~clu bf` ~zbepgelu pobp gp jlcglylu bzl
b~~zm~zgbpl imz pol ugdfgigebfpcw giilzlfp fbp|zl bf` i|fepgmf mi b elfpzbc jbfa bu emk~bzl` tgpo
FMPLU PM IGFBFEGBC UPBPLKLFPU
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277? Bff|bc Zl~m
