©1998-2001 ITU Electronic Commerce for Developing Countries (EC-DC). Page - 1 Current and Future Trends Alexander NTOKO, Project Manager, ITU Electronic.

©1998-2001 ITU Electronic Commerce for Developing Countries (EC-DC). Page - 1

Current and Future Trends

Alexander NTOKO, Project Manager, ITU Electronic CommerceITU Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT)Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.itu.int/ecdc

Basic E-Commerce Training For Pakistan

Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA)Islamabad, Pakistan

31 March – 5 April 2001

International Telecommunication Union (ITU)


Agenda

The trend is ConvergenceThe platform is IPThe strategy is AllianceThe focus is ServicesThe future is MobileFrom dot.coms to dot.gones


Internet Trends

Phenomenal Growth Projections in all Regions.

New Types of Alliances and Partners.

New Business Models and Revenue Streams.

Core Platform for Convergent Services.

Reduced Set-up Costs for Start-ups.


The Platform is IP

Rapid Evolution in Several PlatformsFixed Networks (dial-up, ISDN, Satellite, leased line)

Digital Mobile Data Services (GSM, WAP, I-mode)

Streaming Media (WebTV, VoIP, Cable Modems)

Household Appliances (TVs, Microwaves, Refrigerators)

Wireless Access (PDA + Mobile, Bluetooth)

Broadband (xDSL, DWDM, UWA, 3G Mobile - IMT2000) Power-line Technology For Internet Access

Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC)


The Trend is Convergence

Breaking Industry and Service BarriersBroadcasting Companies --> Voice and Network Services

Telecom Operators --> data network and financial services

Computing Companies --> Broadcasting (TV services)

Financial Institutions --> Data network access Services

Voice Services provided over data networks (VoIP)

Data Services over broadcasting networks (DVB)

Broadcasting services over data networks (WebTV, Radio)

Voice and Data Services over electrical power lines

TV Stations Using Web as another Distribution Channel - MMXI estimated 400% growth in access to TV Web sites


The Strategy is Alliance

No Single entity holds answer to puzzleBroadcasting Companies + Access Providers = TV-based Internet access and e-tailing

Content Providers + Network Carriers = Distributed Content delivery and Hosting

Mobile Operators + Financial Institutions + Software Firms = Mobile e-Payments

Fixed Operators + Broadcasting Companies = Voice Services via TV Networks

Energy Companies + xSPs = Powerline Internet Access

Operators + Financial Companies = ePayment Solutions

Small Businesses + Big Businesses =Survival


The Model is Services

Application Service Provisioning (ASP) Deploy, Host, Manage, Rent Access to Applications for businesses from a central location with security, availability and performance.

Issue: Finding the Right Position in the ASP Value Chain

1. Network Access Services (Network Connectivity)

2. Content Distribution Services

3. Community and Hosting Services

4. Business Productivity and Communications Solutions

5. Application Integration and Work-Group Solutions

Network --> Services --> Applications --> Content --> Portal


Strategies - NSP

Network Service/Access Provisioning (NSP) Reliable, low-cost, high speed access for Businesses and Consumers

Issue: Finding the model for reliable and affordable Internet Access to All.

1. Determine Appropriate Pricing Policy for Services

2. Take Advantage of New access Technologies

3. Forge Strategic Alliances with New Bread of Carriers

4. Migrate from Traffic to Content Delivery Services


The Forces of Changethe rapid rate of change of technologies and its falling costs,

the convergence of technologies, services and industries and the process of globalisation,

the phenomenal growth of the IP networks (e.g. Internet) and the proliferation of pervasive computing,

the emergence digital wireless mobile data services and technologies (Bluetooth, WAP, GPRS and IMT2000), digital TV, voice recognition, Internet appliances and Broadband IP (xDSL, DWDM, UWA) access,

the increase in mergers, alliances and powerful new players,

the breakdown of geographical, time and industry sector barriers,

are perpetuating the phenomenon of e-convergence and introducing new opportunities and challenges to developing countries.


E-Business Drivers

o Metcalfe’s Law of Connectivity: The value of a network grows exponentially with the number of nodes. As the number of nodes double the value of the network quadruples ( f(x) = x2 ) creating the conditions for e-business.


E-Business Drivers

o Moor’s Law: The performance of micro-processors (computing power) doubles every 18 months resulting in cheaper, faster and convergent technologies.


E-Business Drivers

o Better Shopping Options, Price Comparison, Cost-effective and Rapid Market Expansion.

o Drive to Streamline Business Processes and Customer Demands

o Search for New Revenue Streams by moving up the value-chain as Profits Margins for Voice Traffic Declines.

o Operators Capitalising on Customer-base and Investments.


The future is Bright. The future is Mobile

Rapid evolution towards Mobile Internet as high speed digital mobile services become widely available. From GSM to High Speed Circuit-Switched Data to General Packet Radio Service to Enhanced Data Rate for Global Evolution to International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT-2000) WAP, I-Mode already delivering Internet services to mobile subscribers.


M-Commerce


M-Commerce DriversHigh growth rate expected due to lower deployment cost and speed of deployment.

Mergers and alliances between mobile operators, equipment manufacturers and service providers creating opportunities for new services.

Convergence to IP as platform is facilitating access to existing IP-based services through WAP and I-mode.

Problems of low speed on 2G platforms and limited WAP services will be resolved as migration from circuit-switched to packet-switched networks continues.

Migration from time-based tariffs to volume-based tariffs will create opportunities for IP-based services and content.

Security (SIM and PIN codes) on Mobile terminals (as PSEs) encourage secure e-payment solutions.


M-Commerce Drivers

Falling prices for high speed processors and reduction in their sizes will transform mobile devices to powerful handheld computers.

Deregulation will increase competition and drive down prices for mobile services.

Pre-paid services will provide low-entry cost for subscribers but might have negative impact on operator revenues as customer loyalty reduces.

These drivers will affect the business models for operators as voice revenues decline.

… But they also present new markets for innovative operators and service providers what can capitalise on the opportunities brought about by these changes.


M-Commerce Services

Banking - Accounts, Statements, Bill payments and Fund Transfers

Payments - Credit cards, Micro payments and Pre-paid

Trading - Stock quotes, Notifications of events.

E-Government - E-voting and E-administration

Retailing – Subscription and Direct sales

Entertainment - Interactive TV and Live Music


Mobile Commerce Services

Security Services•Access Control

•User Authentication

•Digital Signatures

•Non-repudiation

•Data integrity


The dot.com euphoria

What Happened to the New E-conomy?

o Building market share and dominance was vital.o Long term future was justification for high share prices.o Cash and profits were secondary.o Unlimited cash injections from VCs and IPOs.o Business models too complex for VCs and investors.o Having an Internet strategy was a guaranteed component

for success.o More than USD 3 trillion lost when the bubble burst.


The dot.com euphoria

From bricks and mortar tobricks and clicks to clicks and clicks to bricks and clicks

Can these pitfalls be avoided?How does this affect e-commerce?

©1998-2001 ITU Electronic Commerce for Developing Countries (EC-DC). Page - 1 Current and Future Trends Alexander NTOKO, Project Manager, ITU Electronic.

Documents

hosting services

countries ecdc

convergent services

content distribution

uwa access

access providers

affordable internet

rent access