7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
1/46
I
E*g1t
Arrror."
o*o
,*o,*.r*,*o
.o,tro*"
-
I
e.o.
Box
1o1,
FLoRHAM
PARK,
NEwJERSEY 07932
)
M.
8. GLASER
Manager
Envi
ronmenta
I Affai
rs Programs
IIIBG:
rva
Attachments
-
co^
Cable:
ENGREXXON, N.Y.
November
L2,
L982
"Greenhouse"
Effect
I{.
F,l.
WEINBERG
NOV
1
5
i98Z
82EAP 256
TO: See
Distribution
List
Attached
Attached
for
your
information
and
guidance
is
briefing
material
on
the
CO2
"Greenhouse"
Effect
which
is receiving
increased
attention
in
both
the
scientific
and
popular press
as an
emerging
environmental
issue. A brief
surTnnary
is
provided
along
with
a
more
detailed
technical
review
prepared
by CPPD.
The
material has
been
given
wide circulation to
Exxon
managernent
and
is intended to
familiarize
Exxon
personnel
with the
subject. ft
may
be
used
as a
basis
for discussing the
issue with
outsiders
as
may
be
appropriate.
However, it
should
be
restricted
'to-Exxon
personnel
and not
distributed externally.
Very
truly
yours,
7ls
//*
M. B. GLASER
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
2/46
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
3/46
Distribution List:
R.
w.
cohen
M.
J.
Connor,
ilr.
E.
E. David, Jr.
c. u. Eidt, Jr.
W. R.
Epperly
R.
L. Hirsch
T.
G.
Kaufmann
D.
G. Levine
G.
It. I"ong
J. R.
Riley
H. R.
Savage
A. Schriesbeim
iI.
F
.
Taylor
D.
T.
Wade
H. N. Weinberg
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
4/46
-
NGREENHOUSE
EFFECTN
z
0
PRC:::-:A.RY
SUilUARI
Atuospherlc
toonltorlng
prograEs
shon
thc
leve1 of carbon
dlorlde
1n the
attrospbere
has
lncreased about
8l
ovcr
thc
last
tHenty-flve
years
and
not,
stands
at ebout
3q0
ppn.
lttls
observed
lncreasc ls
bclleved
to
bc
tirc con-
tluuatlo
of a
trcnd rblcb
began ln
thc
olddlc of thr
last
century sl
th
thc
start of thc
Industrfal
Revolutlon.
Fossll
fue1
coobustlon
and the clcaring
of vlrgln
forests
(
deforcstatlon)
arc
belleved
to b thc
prlnary
anthropogcnlc
contrl.butors
althougb the
rclatlvc contributlon
of
cach 1
uoc.rtaln.
Thc
carbon
dloxlde
conteDt of tbc
atDosphere ls of concern
1Dce
t
caD
affect
gl,obal
cllnate. Carbon
dtoxldc
and
otbcr
trace
gases-
eontalned
ln
the
atDosphere such as
sater
vepor,
ozoncr
r0ethaDe, carbon
Eonoxldc,
oxldcs
-
of nltrogen,
etc. absorb
part
of the
lnfrared rays.reradlated
by
the earlh.
Tbls
lncrease
tn
absorbed energy
uaros
the atnosphere
inductng HarBlng
at the
earthrs
surfacc.
lbls
phenooenon
1s
referred
to
ss the
ngreenhousc
effcctn.
Predlctlons
of the
cltratologlcal
ltopec of
a
carbon
dloxlde
lnduced
-
ngreenhouse
effectn draH upon
varlous
DEtheDetl,cal
Dodels
to
gauge
lhe eo-
perature
lncrease. The sclentlflc cooDunlty
geocrall.y
dtscusscs
the bpact
ln terDs
of
doubllng
of
the current
carbon dlortde
content
lD
order to
get
beyond
the
nolse
leve1
of
thc
det8.
lle cstlnate
doubllng
could
occur
arormd
the
year
2090
based upoa
.fossll
.fuel
requlrencnts
projected
1r
Erronrs
long
range energy
outlook.
thc
questlon
of
rbl.ch
predlcttons
and
nhlch
oodcls
best
sLEu:.atc
a
carboa
dloride
lnduced elLroate
cbaage
ts
stlU
bclng
debated by
thc
sclentlflc [email protected].
Orr
best
estlnate
ls
tbat
doublhg
of the^currcnt
congeDtrarion could
lncrrasr
average
global
tcBperatur
by
about
l.Je
to
3.1oC.
lbc
lDcreasb
so-uld
not
Ua
nn
t.ior.n
over
tbe earthts
surfacq
nlth
tbe
polar
caps llkcly
to
sce
terprature
lncreases oa
thc
order
of
lO'C and
thc
eguator llttle,
lf
any,
lncrcase.
Consldcr'able uniertalnty
elso surrounds
the
posslble
lnpact
on
soc ,ety
of
such
a
rirnlng trend, should
lt
occur.
A
the Lor cnd
of.
tbe
prcdlcted
teoperature
rangc
there
eould
be sooe. Lupact
on
agrl.crrltural
groyth
and
ralnfall
patterus
rrhlch
could
be
beneflcl.al
in
soEa
reglons
and delrl^nental
ln othcrs. At
tbe
hlgh
end,
sone sctentlsts suggest
there
could
be conslderable
adverse lnpact
lncludlng
lhe
floodtng
of soe
coaslal
laDd Easses as
a
result of a
rlse
ln
sea
level due
to
DeItlDg
of
the
AntarctlQ lce sheet.
Such
an cffect
nould
not
lakc
placc
untll
centurlc
afler
a
3lC
gtoUat
averege tDperaturc
Lncreas
actually
occurred.
there
ls
currently no unanblguous
sclcntlflc cvldence
that
the
earth
ls
warolng.
If
the
earth ls
on
a
warrlng
trend,
uerre not
11kely
to detect
1t
before
1995- llrls is about
thc earllest
proJectlon
of
utten
the teoperaturc
EC-11-5/
A3
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
5/46
i.
trlght rlse
the
O.5o
needed
fluctuatlons.
On
the
other
exaggerated
the
tenperature
trgreenhouse
effectn
oay not
-2-
to
get
beyond
the
range
of
noraal
tenperature
hand,
lf clfunate
oodellng
uncertalntles
have'
rlse,
lt ls
posslble
ttrat.a
carbon
dloxlde
lnduced
be detected
untll
?O?O
at'the
earllest.
Tbe
ngreenhouse
effectn
ls
not
1lkely
to
cause
substaqtlal
cllnatlc
cbanges
untll
the
average
global
tenperature
rlses
at
least
log
above
todayrs
levels.
Thls
eould occur
ln
the
second
to
thlrd
guarter
of
tbe
nert
century.
goreyer,
there
ts concern
atrong
sone
sclentlfle
groups
thab
once
ttre
effecti
are
neasurable,
they
nlght
not
be
reverslble
and
llttle could
be
done
to
correct
the
sltuatlon
tn
tUe
short tero.
Therefore,
a
nrnber
of
envlronnental
groups
are
calllng
for actton
now
to
prevent
an
undeslrable
future
sltuatloo
fioo
developlng.
Hitlgatlon
of
the
ngreenhouse
effectn nould
regulre
naJor
re?uitlons
1o
fosstJ
fuel conbustlon.
Shlfting
between
fossll
fuels
1s.not
a
feaslble
alternatlve
because
of
ltnlted
long-teno
supply
avallablllty for
cArtaln
fuels
although.
o11 does produee
about
18i less
carbon
dloxlde per Btu
of
heat
released
thau
coal,
and
gas
about
321
less than
o11.
The
energy
outlook
suggests
synthetlc
fuels
will
have.a
negllglble
Lnpact
at
least
through
the
old
21st
eentury
lcontrlbutlng
less
than
fil
of
the
total
carbon
dloxlde
released
frm
fossll
fuel
conbustlon
by
the
year
2050.
Thls
low
1evel
lneludes
the
expecled
eontrlbutlon
froo
carbonaLe
deconposltlon
rhlcb
occurs
durlng
shale
o11
recovery
and
assuues
essenttally
no
efftelency
lmprovenents
in
synthettc.
fuels
processes
above tbose
currently'achlevable.
Overall,
the current
outlook
suggests
potentlally
serlous
cllnate problens
are
not
llkeIy
to
occur
untlI the
late
21st cenlury
or
perhaps
beyond
at
proJected
energy
denand'rates.
Tlrls
sbould
provlde
tlne to
resolve uncertaln-
tles
regardlng'the'overall
earboo
cycle
and
the
contrlbutlon
of
fossll
fuel
conbustton
as
rell
as the
role
of
tbe
oceans
as a
reservolr
for
both
heat
and
carbon
d1oxlde.
It
should
also
allon
tlne
to
better
deflne
the effect
of
carbon
dloxlde
and
other
lnfrared
absorblng
gases
on
surface
cltoate.
ldaklng
slgnlflcant
changes
1n energy
consr.uptlon
patterDs
nor
to
deal
rlth
thls
potenttal
probleo
anld
a1I the
sclentlflc
uncerlalntles
would
be
prenature
1a
vlew.of
tbe
severe
lnpact such
noves
could
have on
the
norldrs
econonles
and
soctetles.
EC-1
1-5lA4
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6/46
-."
PROPnIETANT
I}IFOR}IATION
FON
AUTHONIZED
COI{PANI
USE
OTILT
CO^
GNEENHOUSE
EFFECT
I
.
A
TECHNICAL
REVIETI
PREPANED
BT THE
:
COORDIIIATIOil
A}TD
PI.ANNING
DIVISIOI{
EiCIOII
RESEANCH
AIID
ENGII{EEBIIIG CO{PAI{I
APnrL
1,
1982
EC:11-5/A2
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
7/46
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
8/46
-1-
CO^ GREENHOUSE
EFFECT
z
A
TECHNICAL
REVIEW
TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
BaCkgfOUnda
..
..
.
...
. ...
.. ...
o t.
... . o.
. .. ...
o.. ...
. o. o.. ...
. .. . o. ..
o
Sources
and
Dispositlon
of
Atnospherlc
Carbon
Dtoxide
-
Thil
CanbOn
Cyele..
o
...
o..
... ...
.
..
... ... ... ...
.
.. ...
.
.
o
.
..
..
o
...
.
Desorlptlon
of.Potential
Inpact
on
lleather,
Cllnate'
and
Land AVa1lablllty.
.
.
. .
.
. ..
. ..
.
..
.
....
.
.
.
.
o
r .. ..
.
. ..
o .. .
..
.
.. . .
o
. . o
MaJor
Rgsgarch
Prograns
Underway.
.
. .
.
. . . .
. . . .
. . . . . .
. .
.
.
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
.
. . .
Future
Energy
Scenarlos
and
Ttrefr
Potentlal
Impact
on
AtnosPherlc
CafbOn
DlOXldg...
.
. o .
..
.
..
. .
. . . ...
. .. ...
. ..
.
o. . .. ..
. .
..
.
..'.
.. ...
Forecagt
Based
on
Fossll
FueI
ProJected
n
Exxon
Long
Range
Enefgy
O,ttIOOk.....
... r...........
.........
....
o.............
o...
o
Detgctlon
of
-a
COo
Induced
Greenhouse
Effect..............
r........
z
PAGE
NO.
2
17
6
15
1g
26
30
EC-l1-5/A5
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
9/46
-2-
c02
cREEllnousE
EFFECT
Background
the
butldup
of
co. ln the
atoosphere
has
been
Eonltored
contlnuously'
af
the Natlona1
Oceaflc
and
Atuospherlc
AdDtnlstratloo
I
s
(llOM)
Observatory
8t
Hauna
Loe,
Hanall,
and
perlodtcally
1n
other
places
since
1957.
In
addltlon
to
observlng
a
trend
between
1957
-1979
that
strowed atEospherlc
co2
lncreaslng
fron
315
to
33?
ppn,
Keellng
and others
a13o
observed
a
seasonal
?arlablllty
ranglng
froo
6
lo 10
pp
betreen
a
lox
at
the
end
of
ttre
suDDer
growing
season
(aui
to
phoeosynthesls) and
a
h .gh
at the
end
of
ntnter
(due
to fossll
f\rel.
burnlng
for
heat,
aDd
bloDass
decay).
rhere
ls 11 t1e doubt
that
these
obser-
vatlons
tndleate
a
SroFlh
of stEosPherle
CO"
(see
F 'gure 1). It
ls
also
belleved
that
the
Srowth
of
atEospherlc
Cor-has
beeD
occurrtng
since the
niddle
of
the
past
cenbury,
1.e.,
coincldefit
r{'ltb the start of
the
Industrlal.
Bevolutlon.
I?rere
ls,
however,
Sreat
uncertainty as
to
wbether
the
at[os-
Dherlc
co^
concentration
prlor
to the
Industrlal
Revol.utlon
(ca.
'
1850)
ras
)go-goo
pfin
uhlch one
would
arrlve
at
by
assuulng
atoospherlc
C0"
Srowth
ls
:
due to
fossl1
fuel
burnlng
and
ceoent
Danufacturlng,
ot
260-270
lpu
based
on
-
c'arbon
Lsotope
EeasureEents
ln
tree rlngs.
The lnfortatlol-
9n.
c9z
concentra-
tlon
prlor
to
1850
i3
lnportant
because
lt
rroul d helP
establish
the valld1ty
of cliroatlc
predlctlons nlth respeet
to
the tnceptlon
of a
CO2
I'nduced
tgreenhouse
effectn.
?he
ngreenhouse
effecti
refers
o the
absorbtlon
by
CO2
and
otber
trace
gases-conlained in
the
al66sphere
(such
as rater
vapori ozone,
carbo6
Donottdel
6rldes
of
nltrogen,
freons,
and
netlrane) of
part
of tbe lnfrared
radlation
$hlih
ls
riradlated
by
the
earth.
An
lncrease
ln
absorbed energy
vla thls
route
nould iarn
the
earthts
surface
csuslng
cbaages 1n
cllEate affectlng
.
atDospherlc
and ocean
teEperatures,
ralnfall
Patteins,
solI
uolsture' and
over
cenbuiles
potentially ueltlng
the
polar
tce
caps.
Tbe
relatlve
contrlbutlons
of
bioloass
oxldation
(nalnly
due
to deforestatlon)
and
fossll
fuel
cornbustton
go
the observed
atsospherlc
COr
increase
are
not
loom. Ttrere
are
falrly
good
lndlcatlons
that
tbe
anfiual
gronth
of
ataospherlc
CO;
ls oo
lhe order
ot
2.5
Lo
3.0
Gtlar
of carbon
and
the
net
quantlty
of
caFbon
absorbed
by
the
ocean.ls
siu11ar1y
2.5
lo
3
Gtla.
1bu3,
these
tuo
slnks
(atDosphere
and
ocean)
can account
for the
total fosslI
carbon
burned
(lncludlng
0.3
GIC/art
frm
ceuent
nanufaeturlng)
which ls on the
order
of
5-6
Gl/a
and
does
not
alJow
nuch rooo for a
net
contrlbutlon
of
bloness
r
Gt/a
=
glgatons
per
annun
=
10'
Detrl8
tons
per year.
tt
GtC/a
=
glgatons
carbon
per
annun
=
10'
netrlc toDs
of carbon
Per
year.
EC-11-5/
A6
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
10/46
Eii
o
:9
az
:3
-_a
EE
EP
9.9
=-5
c;
-9
Zg
c3
il
:
9;.
-iE
=a
B
cl=
a=
>E
Ec
oo
EI
gc
oa
t-u
o8
(J5
cE
BI
*s
Eg
ac
r
EE
EE
i ::'a
E;'
c
i
a
I
aio
t
:t
c
I
t
t
B
IT
t
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
11/46
-4-
carbon. Yet, highly
respcted
sclentlsts
such as
Hcodwe11,
Bolln
and
others
have
postulaled
a
net
blonass
contrlbutlon
to
atDospherlc
C0.
that
ranges
froo 1
to
perhaps
8
GL/a
ot
earbon. Drrlng
1980,
a nrnber
of
dlfferent
groups
Produced
ner estloates
of
the contrlbutlon
of
organlo.
terrestlal
fl|[es
to
atoosphertc
C0r. A
consensus
has
not been
reached,
but esttsates
of
the
net
annual
terFestlal
blosphere
eolsslons
to
the
at&osphere
noH
range
betueen
a
4
GtC/a
source
and
a
2
GtCla
slnk. Flgure
2 al@Earizes
the
Cluxes
and
reservoLrs for the
carbon
cycle.
rt should
be noted that
the
net
blosphere
contrlbutlon
nas assuued
to be 0-2 Cte/a.
The rate
of
forest
clearlng
has been
estfuoatqd
4f
0.5/ Eo
1.51
per
yeaE
of
the
exlstlng
area. Forests
occupy
about
50
x 10-h'
out
of about
150
x lOekn
/
p,fat
,r'l:1,"":':l
1l
/
ttuctu.aiions
/
I
./
-'/a"tt
rC
/
including
co2
effec.
t\L-
/
.\\--
.
/P"rt
ctranges
without
Range
of
\
natural
fluctuations
(climatic
noise)
Lo,
effect
(?l
-
---
v
7/24/2019 1982 Exxon Primer on CO2 Greenhouse Effect
36/46
_29
_
the
behavtor
of
the
nean
global
tenperature
froo 1850
to
the
present,
contalned
rdthln
an
envelop
scaled
to
lnclude
the
randgn
tenpe5ature
fluctuatlons,
and
proJected
lnto
the t\rture
to
lnclude
the
1.3-
to
3.1'C
range of
uncertalnty
noted
above
for
the
CO,
effect.
Dependtng
on
the
actual global
energy
denand
and
supplY,
1t1-"
po""fble
tbat
sone of
the
eoncerns
about
CO,
Erowtb
due
to fossll
fuel
conbustlon nay
be
reduced
lf foss1l
fuel
use lstdecreaseS
due
to
hlgh
prlee,
scarclty,'and
unavallabll1ty.
The
above
dlscusslon
assunes
that
an
lnstantaneous
cllnatlc
resPonse
results
froa
an
lncrease
ln
atrnosptrerlc
GOo
concentratlon.
In
actuallty'
the
tenperabure
effect
nould llke1y
Ia
the
C0,
change
by about 20
years
beeause
the
oceans
would
tend
to
danp
out
tenperat[re
changes"
Gtven
the
long
tern
nafure
of
the
potentlal
problen
and
the ulcertalntles
lnvo1ved,
tt
rould
appear
that
there ls
tlne
for
firther
study and
nonl'tortng
before
speclflc
acllons
need
be
taken.
At
the
present
tl.ne,
that
actlon
would
Itkely
be curtallnent
of fossll
fuel
consunptlon
uhlch
rculd
undoubtedly
serlously
inpact
tlre
worldts
economles
and
socleties.
Key
Polnts
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clluate-
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