18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author1 Assessments – science-based decision support Mikko Pohjola, THL.

20/04/23 Presentation name / Author 1

Assessments – science-based decision support

Mikko Pohjola, THL


Contents

• What is assessment?

• Example: what is the scope of TAPAS?

• From practical need to assessment problem

• Finding solutions to the problem


Assessment

• Risk assessment, health impact assessment, environmental impact assessment, societal impact assessment, integrated assessment, environmental modeling, cost-effectiveness analysis, life-cycle analysis…

• Statements (or the process of making statements) of judged cost, value, worth, significance of… (Merriam-Webster online dictionary)


Assessment

• Science-based decision support– Driven by a practical need– Constrained by the scientific quest for truth

• Also facilitated with the means of science

• Decisions about…?– preferred actions intended to lead to desired

consequences• Decisions by…?

– Societal decision makers (policy)– Industry and commerce (e.g. investments)– Individuals (e.g. as residents, passengers)


Assessment


Assessment

• It is a business of creating understanding about reality in relation to a specific need

– Collection, synthesis, interpretation and organization of information

– Communication of information !!!– Use of information !!!

• Assessment can refer to– The process of making an assessment– The product produced by that process

• The information product used to support decision making


Assessment

Assessors Decision makers Stakeholders

Assessmentprocess

Conse-quence

Assess-ment

product

Decisionmaking

De-cision

Action

Otherfactors

Otherfactors


Assessment

• Helping a decision maker understand the problem (s)he has at hand…

• …and the relevant factors related to it…

• …as well as the basis for the understanding…

• …so that (s)he can come up with a good decision…

• …upon taking action based on that understanding.

Traditional science-policy interface

Policy-making: each policyquestion is consideredseparately based on a differentassessment.

A specific policy-makingprocess

A specific policy-makingprocess

Policy assessments: each assessment is performedseparately

Model for a specific policy assessmentModel for a specific policy assessment

Scientific articles

Model for a specific policy assessment A specific policy-makingprocess

Study (i)result:

exposure

Require filtersfor pollutantX? Yes/No

Exposure topollutant X

Costs of filtersMonetisation

of healthimpacts

Objective:minimise total

costs

Health impactof pollutant XStudy (ii)

result:exposure

Study (iii)result:costs

Interpretation of study (i)

Interpretationof exposure

Interpretation of study (ii)

Interpretation of study (iii)

Study (i)researchers

Policyassessors

Policy aboutfilter

requirements

Stakeholderlobbying

Otherconsiderations

Interpretationof costs

Study (ii)researchers

Policy-maker

Study (iii)researchers


Open assessment interface

Open assessments for scientific interpretation and policyassessments: the general part

Assessment-specificpart

Assessment-specificpart

Policy-making: with bothgeneral and specificconsiderations.

A policy-makingprocess with bothgeneral and specificconsiderations.

A policy-makingprocess with bothgeneral and specificconsiderations.

Scientificresults

Assessment-specificconditionalisation(temporary)

A policy-makingprocess

Study (i)result:

exposure

Require filtersfor pollutant X?

Yes/No

Exposure topollutant X

Costs of filters

Objective:minimise total

costs

Health impactof pollutant X

Study (ii)result:

exposure

Study (iii)result:costs

Study (i)researchers

Policy assessorsof all

assessmentsPolicy about

filterrequirements

Otherconsiderations

Stakeholderlobbying

Policy-maker

Monetisationof healthimpacts

Anyoneinterested

Case-specificdata


Example: TAPAS

• Transportation, Air pollution and Physical ActivitieS– An integrated health risk assessment programme of

climate change and urban policies

• Research project with an assessment and modeling approach

• Partners from 7 different institutes from 4 different countries (cities)

– Barcelona, Paris, Basel, Copenhagen


Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities;an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies

• Keywords:– Transport– Air pollution– Physical activities– Health risks– Climate change– Urban policies

• There must be some good reasons for making such an assessment. Can you identify them?



• What are the issues addressed?

• What are the needs regarding those issues?

• Are the issues controversial?

• Are the issues inter-related?



• Whose needs and concerns?

• Who are interested in or affected by them?

• Can someone be held responsible for the way things are?

• Should something be done?

• Is someone responsible for taking action?

• What actions can be taken?

• Who can take action?



• What benefits are sought for by taking action?

• Do possible actions involve risks?

• Who is affected by possible actions?

• What needs to be known in order to take action?

• What needs to be known in order to know what action to take?

• Whose understanding about the issues, needs and actions is most crucial to achieve the benefits?



• The project plan says:– Urban policies (built environment, interventions)

• Addressing climate change (prevention, adaptation?)• Promoting other health related outcomes

– Active transportation (walking, cycling + public)– Risks: air pollution, UV, crime, accidents – Benefits: physical activity, social interaction, mental

health– Effects summarized as DALYs



• Assessment – active transport policy decisions – Indicators:

• GHG emissions• ambient air quality• mental health / quality of life• attributable chronic/acute disese• net health (DALYs)




Climate, health: win-win

From need to assessment problem



• Information gap drives the assessment – There is a need to know, but required

knowledge/information is missing • need to make decision (action/no action, what action)• need to choose among decision options• need to know available decision options• need to know preferability of decision options

• Multiple possible decision makers– e.g. political leaders, industrial managers, individuals

• Multiple possible decisions/actions– e.g. policy, investment, consumption



• Assessment object in open assessment



• Purpose of assessment is to satisfy the information gap of intended users of the assessment

• The information gap needs to be indicated or identified, analyzed and understood

• The information gap determines the boundaries for what needs to be assessed



• Assessment scope (purpose, users and boundaries) describes the assessment problem

– what is needed to know, why, who will use the knowledge?

• Purpose & users - practical requirements for how the assessment should be made

• Boundaries define the part of reality which to assess

• Scenarios are specific conditionings that need to be done in order to address the need adequately



• Can we define:– Purpose of the TAPAS assessment?– Boundaries of the TAPAS assessment?– Users of the TAPAS assessment output?

• Can the assessment problem be formulated into a question or a set of questions?

Where to look for solutions?



• What needs to be done in order to address the problem?

• Assessment is about finding solutions to the assessment problem

– also finding out what is not known in order to solve the problem• consider knowledge management vs. ignorance

management – assessments are done according to need, not

according to e.g. coincidental data availability


Finding solutions to the problem

Assessment Use

Assessmentprocess

Assessmentproduct

Decision making

Knowledgeneed

Productrequirement

Processrequirement



• What needs to be known in order to make the right decision?– Decision options– Outcomes affected– Factors that mediate and influence the effect from

decision to outcome



• Indicators: issues of specific interest


Summary

• Assessments serve two masters– Practical need (of policy)– Scientific truth

• Need determines assessment scope– Problem to solve

• Scope determines what needs to be assessed– Suggestion for solving the problem

• Coming up with solutions and putting them to use (assessment definition and result) will be discussed more on Thursday

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author1 Assessments – science-based decision support Mikko Pohjola, THL.

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