The Mongolian Investment Case in the Context of Negative International Perception James Passin Principal Firebird Management LLC 2014 Mongolian Investment Summit
The Mongolian Investment Case in the
Context of Negative International Perception
James Passin
Principal
Firebird Management LLC
2014 Mongolian Investment Summit
DisclaimerThis Presentation is confidential and may not be reproduced or distributed in any jurisdiction except with the priorexpress written consent of FG2 Advisors, LLC (“FG2”). The Presentation is for informational purposes only, and isintended only for those recipients to whom it is delivered by FG2. By accepting this Presentation, the recipientagrees that it will not, and it will cause its directors, partners, officers, employees and representatives to not,divulge any such information to any other party.
Nothing herein should be considered a recommendation by FG2 of any security, assets or investment. Inpreparing this Presentation, FG2 has relied upon and assumed the accuracy and completeness of all informationavailable from public sources or which was provided to or reviewed by it. FG2 has no obligation to update or keepcurrent the information contained herein. FG2 does not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracyor completeness of the information contained herein. This Presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or asolicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, investment product, or investment advisory services describedherein. Any offering will be made only by means of a private placement memorandum or other appropriatematerials (the “Offering Documents”) that will contain detailed information about any investment to be offered. Theterms of any investment described herein are subject to change. Any Fund and any interests therein have notbeen and will not be registered, guaranteed, approved or disapproved under or by the securities laws of the UnitedStates or any other jurisdiction nor by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any other governmentagency or authority.
Certain statements and information in this Presentation constitute “forward-looking statements” and forward-looking information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things,projections, forecasts or estimates of cash flows, yields or returns, scenario analyses and proposed or expectedportfolio composition. When used in this Presentation, the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” andsimilar expressions are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-lookingstatements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actualresults, performance or achievements of a Fund to differ materially from any future results, performance orachievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements in thisPresentation speak only as of the date hereof. FG2 expressly disclaims any obligation to disseminate anyupdates to any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in its expectation with regardthereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
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Crash in All Listed Mongolian Proxies
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Mongolia Energy (HK) Turquoise Hill (NYSE)
Entrée Gold (TSXVX) Petro Matad (AIM)
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Mongolian USD Treasury Bonds
Intriguing Recent Recovery in Prices
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Mongolian 10-Year Bond (price)
Compression of Currency Volatility:
Indication of Improving Macro Stability?
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Tugrik vs. USD (MNTUSD) Historic Vol
Bearish Macro Environment for Resource
Venture Capital -- Round Trip to 2008!
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Toronto Venture Exchange Composite Index
A Massive Pipeline of Industrial/Infra Projects
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COAL TO GAS
• $30.0 bln
IRON ORE CLUSTER
• $1.0 bln
RAILWAYS
• $16.0 bln
COAL TO LIQUIDS
• $2.5 bln
COPPER SMELTER
• $2.0 bln
HIGHWAYS
• $0.46 bln
COAL WASHING
• $0.08 bln
OIL PRODUCTION
• $0.8 bln
OIL REFINERY
• $1.20 bln
POEWR PLANT on TT COAL MINE
• $1.0 bln
POWER PLANT V
• $1.2 bln
Mongolia: The Next Qatar?
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Real GDP/Capita - Qatar (starting 1970) vs Mongolia (starting 1991)
Source: Bloomberg
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
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$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
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Mongolia (starting 1991) Qatar (starting 1970)
Mongolia Today 2013
Mongolia in 2034?
Mongolia 1991
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